According to the U-T, Sterling Hitchcock and Ismael Valdes have passed physicals and been signed to compete with Kevin Jarvis for the number five spot in the rotation. A few items of note:

• Both were inked to 1-year deals for $800k plus incentives.
• The two kids, Ben Howard and Dennis Tankersley, are not mentioned as contestants in the battle for number five.
• Greg Maddux is still listed as the leading candidate for the number one slot.
• Kevin Towers on Hitchcock: "He’s got a lot of heart and a great split-finger fastball. And he’s left-handed, which is big in this division."
• Towers on Valdes: "Ismael can throw four pitches for strikes."
• Hitchcock on himself: "I’m completely healthy. And when I’m healthy, I’m not afraid of competing… I’m very glad to be back. I’m a little more humble. And my arm is fresh."

Hitchcock: A Closer Look

Hitchcock, who turns 33 just after the season begins, has spent parts of the past 12 seasons in the big leagues. He came up through the Yankees’ organization, where he enjoyed some success before moving to Seattle for a year. Hitchcock then came to San Diego before the 1997 season, in a straight-up deal (which I hated at the time) for Scott Sanders. The left-hander donned a Padre uni for four seasons and change, the last two of which were abbreviated due to elbow reconstruction surgery.

Hitchcock has pitched enough innings in a season to qualify for the ERA title just five times in his career, from 1995 to 1999. Here is how he did during those years:

Yr Age  Tm    IP   H HR BB  SO  ERA ERA+
95  24 NYA 168.1 155 22 68 121 4.70  97
96  25 Sea 196.2 245 27 73 132 5.35  92
97  26  SD 161.0 172 24 55 106 5.20  74
98  27  SD 176.1 169 29 48 158 3.93  97
99  28  SD 205.2 202 29 76 194 4.11 107

How many out there remembered he struck out 194 batters in his last healthy season? It’s an interesting progression. In Hitchcock’s first full season in the bigs, at age 24, he was basically a league average pitcher. Then he bounced around a couple of years and tried to get comfortable again. And once he did, he re-established that level of performance and started to improve on it.

Don’t get me wrong, that was four years and major surgery ago, but it’s worth noting that Hitchcock was showing signs of busting out before he got hurt. At age 33 and with a lot of rust on the left arm, he can’t be expected to just pick up where he left off and become the pitcher it looked like he was becoming. But Hitchcock is a known quantity, and as he points out, his arm is fresh (if a little rusty).

For kicks, here are his last four seasons combined:

   IP   H HR BB  SO  ERA
263.0 306 36 94 203 5.13

For further kicks, here are how his five healthy seasons compare with his four injury-marred seasons (numbers pro-rated to 200 innings for easier comparison):

         IP   H HR BB  SO  ERA
healthy 200 208 29 70 157 4.65
injured 200 233 27 71 154 5.13

  H/9  HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 BB/SO
  9.35 1.30 3.17 7.05  2.22
 10.47 1.23 3.22 6.95  2.16

Hitchcock has been easier to hit since his peak years, and his ERA has spiked about a half a run. But look at the other ratios. Despite the injuries and advancing age, he’s actually managed to maintain them pretty well. Again (and I can’t say this enough), it’s unreasonable to expect him to carry the rotation. But he sure looks like a good gamble at the back end to me.

I’m out of time. We’ll take a closer look at Valdes tomorrow or Monday.