Before I resume with my frantic end-of-year desk-clearing activities, I’d like to take a quick moment to congratulate LaDainian Tomlinson on his record-setting season. What he accomplished on the football field (1600+ rushing yards, 100 receptions) is nothing short of miraculous given the general lack of talent around him. There isn’t much worth watching on the Chargers these days, but Tomlinson truly is a spectacular talent. I hope he one day gets the recognition (and good football team) he deserves.

I grew up with Air Coryell, and it pains me to see the Chargers organization in such a mess. I could rant about that for days, but I’ve largely lost interest and at this point I wouldn’t mind seeing Alex Spanos and company leave town. Besides, we talk about baseball here. With that in mind…

Shortly after the season I jotted some notes about Peavy’s 2003 campaign and my thoughts on what might lie ahead for the Pads’ most promising young pitcher to come around in a long time. I think I may have shared some of these in slightly different form elsewhere but I’m not sure. If it seems overly familiar, I apologize.

Positives

• Held opponents to .238 average in his first full season, at age 22
• Decent strikeout rate (7.21/9 IP)
• No huge lefty/righty splits (.246/.324/.445 vs LHB; .230/.307/.400 vs RHB)
• Got stronger as the season progressed (appreciably lower ERA, OppBA, HR/9; higher SO/9 after All-Star break)
• Good velocity and movement
• Fluid, repeatable delivery
• Solid understanding of how to work hitters for a guy his age
• Bulldog mentality (cliche, but also true; think Kevin Brown)
• Will have a full year working with Darren Balsley, his pitching coach at Elsinore and Mobile in 2001-2002

Negatives

• Too many innings (194.2); I’d have liked to seen him shut down about three or four starts earlier
• Thirty-two homers allowed; this should improve with experience
• Too many walks (80); he’s always had good command, so this should also improve
• A bit emotional at times (which could be a positive if he learns to
  channel his energy)
• Sometimes has trouble putting hitters away after getting ahead of them
• Won’t have Gary Bennett in 2004

Here are some splits for Peavy:

                 IP   H HR BB SO  ERA
Pre All-Star  116.2 112 21 49 88 4.55
Post All-Star  78.0  61 12 33 68 3.46

  H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
 8.64 1.62 3.78 6.79  1.80
 7.04 1.38 3.81 7.85  2.06

This progression is real encouraging. Peavy dropped his ERA a full run and improved all of his peripheral numbers by quite a bit in the second half of the season. Here are some monthly breakdowns:

      IP  ERA   BA
Apr 29.1 3.99 .220
May 39.0 4.15 .260
Jun 39.1 3.43 .233
Jul 21.1 8.86 .322
Aug 36.1 2.73 .188
Sep 29.1 3.38 .224

Peavy tried to pitch through an injury in July. Take out those four starts, and here’s what you get:

   IP   H HR BB  SO  ERA
173.1 145 26 68 140 3.53

  H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
 7.53 1.35 3.53 7.27  2.06

I hear Peavy compared to Greg Maddux a lot, but I don’t think that’s right. They’re similar in stature, athleticism, and competitiveness. But Peavy throws harder and doesn’t have that kind of command (who does?).

I’m thinking more along the lines of Andy Benes or a better Andy Ashby (in their primes). Contemporary guys? I dunno. Kevin Millwood, Javier Vazquez, and Kip Wells are a few names that come to mind. Brett Myers is the most similar pitcher to Peavy at the same age.

My biggest concerns with Peavy at this point are his workload and gopheritis, in that order. I’m hoping that his conditioning and mechanics will be enough to offset the innings and keep him away from major injury, but at his age, you never know. As for the homers, I think time and experience will take care of that problem.

What do I expect from Peavy in 2004? I think he’ll improve on last year’s numbers, but probably not be as good as his second half of 2003. Bearing in mind the unknown effects of Petco Park, the loss of Gary Bennett, the heavy workload last year, and the general unpredictability of young pitchers, I’ll temper my enthusiasm and put the over/under on his ERA at 3.90. That may be conservative.

Regardless of what happens this year, if Peavy stays healthy, the sky is the limit. With his combination of stuff and savvy, he’ll be one of the top 30-40 starting pitchers in baseball by 2006 at the latest. I don’t mean to put undue pressure on the guy (doubtful that it’s any more than he puts on himself), but I’m really, really looking forward to watching Peavy work his magic at Petco for years to come.