In the comments to yesterday’s entry, Derek asked about a couple of current rumors involving the Padres.

The first (Rocky Mountain News) has Preston Wilson coming to San Diego for Jay Payton and Xavier Nady.

Money? Wilson is due $12M in 2005. Payton will get $3.5M next year. Nady, obviously, is young and comparatively cheap.

Wilson and Payton both had down years in 2004, so let’s look at how they did the previous year, when they played side by side in Colorado:

     PA  BA OBP SLG BB  SO OPS+
JP  658 302 354 512 43  77 112
PW  661 282 343 537 54 139 115

Pretty similar. How about 2002:

     PA  BA OBP SLG BB  SO OPS+
JP  481 303 351 488 29  54 115
PW  582 243 329 429 58 140 101

This isn’t really helping Wilson’s cause. Payton is about 1 1/2 years older than Wilson, and he will cost $8.5M less. And the Rockies want Nady, too?

Sorry but I don’t see how this helps the Padres at all. As I said yesterday, take Nady out of the deal and send $8M the Padres way, maybe you have something. The decision makers need to remember that Payton’s bad year doesn’t necessarily make him a bad player. Don’t panic.

The second rumor (USA Today) has Payton and Brian Lawrence headed to Texas for Alfonso Soriano.

From a talent standpoint, this one makes a little more sense. And if it weren’t for the fact that the Padres already have one of the best second basemen in baseball and not a lot of depth in the rotation, I’d probably be excited.

Okay, Soriano can hit the ball a long way. But much of his value derives from the fact that he plays second base. With Mark Loretta stationed there for the Pads and Josh Barfield on the way, it’s hard to imagine Soriano playing second in San Diego.

Third base? He’s played 10 games there in the big leagues and committed 4 errors. And what do you do with Sean Burroughs then?

Center field? Soriano’s next game in the outfield will be his first. Not that he couldn’t do it, but if the goal is to get a center fielder, then why not get one?

As for the money, Soriano is arbitration eligible and is expected to command in excess of $7.5M. Lawrence will earn $2.25M this year and $3.5M in 2006. We’ve already touched on Payton.

So the finances appear to work out okay. But who replaces Lawrence in the rotation: Dennys Reyes? As it stands, Woody Williams and Darrell May are replacing David Wells and, essentially, Ismael Valdez. Probably a slight dropoff there overall, but at least you’ve got a couple of guys who have made it through a big league season taking a regular rotation turn. Asking Reyes to replace Lawrence is a bit much (and I happen to like Reyes).

The only reason I can think for the Padres to make this deal would be to flip Soriano to another team for a starting pitcher to replace Lawrence. Don’t ask me for names, this is pure speculation. Just thinking along here.

When all is said and done, I’m in agreement with Rich over at San Diego Spotlight on this one. A deal for Soriano could go down, but it seems like a lot of other teams need him more than the Padres do.