The Padres didn’t complete the sweep against the Diamondbacks, but they still took the series. Time now to take a look back at the first month of the Padres’ 2005 season.
NL West Standings
Actual Pythag*
W L W L RS RA
LA 15 8 14 9 126 99
Ari 14 10 11 13 104 112
SF 12 11 12 11 117 116
SD 11 13 12 12 105 105
Col 6 15 8 13 105 137
*Using the 1.85 exponent.
What Went Right?
- The Padres started to figure out how to use Petco Park to their advantage, winning 7 of 10 games at home and outscoring opponents, 43-24. A closer look at how the Pads did at home in April:
AB BA OBP SLG BB SO Padres 358 .274 .357 .377 46 58 Opponents 359 .195 .264 .276 31 78The pitching has been outstanding at Petco:
IP ERA H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 100.0 1.71 6.30 0.27 2.79 7.02
- Speaking of pitching, Jake Peavy has been spectacular and Adam Eaton has been solid. Peavy, averaging more than 7 innings per start, fashioned a 1.77 ERA. He held opposing batters to a .210/.248/.355 line. Perhaps most critcally, Peavy averaged just 14.4 pitches per inning (as opposed to 16.2 in 2004). As for Eaton, after a poor first start at Coors Field, he’s been pretty consistent. His biggest issue right now is lack of pitch efficiency (18.6 per inning), which kept him from going more than 6 innings in any of his April starts.
- The running game: Padres stole 19 bases in 24 attempts in April. They stole 52 in 77 attempts in 2004.
- New additions to the bullpen performed. Chris Hammond and Rudy Seanez were nearly unhittable, while Dennys Reyes was merely very good. Here’s what $1.85M got the Padres in April:
IP ERA H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 40.1 1.79 5.80 0.22 2.68 7.14
By comparison, here’s what $10.67M got the Tigers (Troy Percival) and Giants (Armando Benitez) in April:
IP ERA H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 19.2 5.03 8.69 1.83 4.12 4.12
- Ryan Klesko (.260/.387/.468) found health and started hammering the ball again. Half of his 20 April hits went for extra bases. He also drew 15 walks in 23 games.
- Xavier Nady (.246/.325/.493) and Geoff Blum (.271/.328/.458) did a great job subbing for injured regulars Dave Roberts and Khalil Greene. After seeing his playing time reduced on Roberts’ return, Nady’s production dropped off considerably, but he established pretty firmly that he belongs in the big leagues as a starter.
- Ramon Hernandez (.286/.341/.452) did his usual thing. He played in all but one of the Padres’ 24 games. A few days off here and there to let Miguel “Maytag Repairman” Ojeda (he and Woody Williams finished April with 12 at-bats each) play might help the club down the stretch.
- Once healthy, Roberts (.300/.349/.450) became an immediate contributor. Sean Burroughs (.319/.392/.377) overcame a slow start, hitting his first ever Petco home run in the final game of April.
What Went Wrong?
- Poor pitching on the road:
IP ERA H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 117.1 5.45 11.35 1.30 3.07 7.06
Interestingly, not only are Padres pitchers having much more success at home, but the hitters appear to have lost a little of their mojo away from Petco:
AB BA OBP SLG BB SO Padres 476 .225 .311 .397 56 91 Opponents 483 .306 .361 .497 40 92I use the word “interestingly” because we’ve only got one month’s worth of data. To call it anything more than “interesting” would be premature, but this is something that bears watching over the summer.
- Defense. Pads committed 18 errors in 24 games, leading to 15 unearned runs. Visual observation tells me that the fielders aren’t getting to as many balls as they should be. What do the numbers say?
2004 2005 RF ZR RF ZR Nevin 9.12 .816 9.46 .915 Loretta 4.97 .832 4.91 .882 Burroughs 2.62 .787 2.72 .864 Blum 4.09 .952 Greene 4.22 .847 Klesko 1.70 .866 2.03 .872 Roberts 2.58 .885 Payton 3.01 .885 Giles 2.15 .924 1.98 .857I’m not crazy about range factor or zone rating as a metric, but it’s what we have. Not a lot of huge differences here in range factor; Roberts isn’t matching up to what Payton did last year (Payton did lead the league in RF), that’s about it. Huge jumps in zone rating pretty much all around the infield. Hefty drop for Giles in right. Klesko is putting up better numbers in both categories than last year.
What do I get from all this? Simple: I still don’t trust these statistics. My eyes tell me that the defense has been sloppier so far than last; I’ll stick with that for now.
- Not enough production from Mark Loretta (.297/.383/.337), Phil Nevin (.229/.262/.458), and Brian Giles (.202/.361/.381). Loretta is getting on base and stealing bases (6 in April, after 5 in all of 2004) but not driving the ball at all (27 of his 30 hits were singles). Nevin managed to work a career-high 13-game hitting streak into those numbers, and he led the Padres with 20 RBI (all the more baffling when you consider he hit .185/.200/.370 with RISP; somehow that translated into 13 RBI in 27 AB). Giles just isn’t getting very many hits. The power is there, and he paced MLB with 22 walks. Oddly, he didn’t drive in a run at home in April.
- Injuries to Greene and Eric Young. Pretty self-explanatory. Greene arguably was the guy the Padres could least afford to lose, while Young gave the club additional flexibility.
- Poor starts out of the gate from Williams, Brian Lawrence, and Tim Redding. The first two came on strong toward the end of the month, while Redding is still trying to figure it out and appears to be on a very short leash.
Bottom Line
On the one hand, it’s early and there’s no need to panic. On the other, the NL West should be one of the tighter divisions in baseball, with very little margin for error. Giving away games early in the season could come back to haunt the Padres come September. In order to succeed, they’ll need to execute better on defense, start hitting in clutch situations, and get more consistent production out of the back of their rotation. If it makes you feel any better, the Padres finished April with a better record than the New York Yankees (10-14). And they did it for a lot less money.
So basically we need to play better baseball? I’ll tend to agree.
I’ll add to your list that Reyes shouldn’t be allowed to pitch over Hammond if Hammond’s ready. I’m contemplating whether Reyes should be flogged for walking the bases loaded, and then walking in a run. I’m leaning towards “yes”.
Peavy should have more wins on his record, and our offense should feel downright badly that they haven’t given him the support to get those W’s. It’s a personal stat, but Jake has been putting the team on his back when he starts. It’s been since Brown that I remember what it feels like to have an ace on the team. It’s nice, but I’ve been frustrated with the results.
I wouldn’t even give Redding one more start, the sooner we find the answer to the #5 puzzle (and it isn’t Redding, May, or Reyes), the better we’ll be. I’d have said try Sparks to give Stauffer a few more starts, but the club cut him. Timmy Time is May, 2005.
Keep up the good work, Geoff. It’s appreciated.
Do those defensive metrics take pitching into account? How much of Giles dropoff is due to pitching? Klesko seems better in left. Maybe that pushed Roberts more towards right, cutting into Giles chances? Who knows…
As bad as the team has been I’m less pessimistic than I was a few days ago. No one is running away with the division. Arizona will fade, the Giants are done, it’s a two team race.
Giles can’t be this bad for the whole year, right? That pop up on a 3-0 count was one of the worst things I’ve ever seen. A guy who normally has an excellent eye swinging at ball four in that situation is an obvious indicator that the guy is pressing. Someone should show him a Brian Giles highlight reel and remind him he’s the same guy. He was so intense when he first came over from Pittsburgh, now he looks depressed and beat down.