I’ve finally posted the May Padres Organizational Report. Take a look when you have a moment.

The other day I alluded to the fact that Dennis Tankersley hadn’t yet mastered Triple-A and dismissed that as "another story for another day". Well, guess what; that day is today.

One point that bears considering when discussing whether the Padres are rushing their young arms is this: Ron Shandler, a respected name in baseball analysis, has found that "over 80% of all minor league pitchers promoted with less than a full year at Triple-A will struggle in their first year in the majors" and that "pitchers with a full year at Triple-A are 3.5 times more likely to perform well in the majors in year #1 than those without a full year at Triple-A."

Ben Howard, when he was recalled, had no Triple-A experience under his belt. He did not perform well and was returned to the minors. Tankersley had worked a total of 14 innings at Triple-A and had a similar experience. Oliver Perez hasn’t pitched at Triple-A. Heck, he’s barely gotten his feet wet at Double-A.

None of this is meant to suggest that it’s necessarily a bad idea to bring these guys up (although in the case of Perez, if a promotion truly was warranted, then why not move him to Portland and bring up the all-but-forgotten Junior Herndon?), just that we should keep our expectations in check. Right or wrong, the Padres are auditioning for spots on their next contending team.

What would I have done differently had I been in the Padres’ shoes? Given the hand they’ve been dealt this year with all the injuries, I think I would’ve given Howard two more starts to prove himself. If you’re going to bring the kid up from Double-A and bypass Herndon and Jason Middlebrook (which they did at the time), give him an extended shot to do something. Then, if that doesn’t work out, send him back to the minors. Aside from that, I’d have called up Herndon to replace Tankersley and let Perez dominate the Southern League for another couple months. I know Herndon doesn’t have overpowering stuff but the kid is still only 23 years old and he’s already got nearly 300 innings of work in at Triple-A. But apparently Herndon doesn’t fit into the Padres’ plans, and he could well follow in the footsteps of Buddy Carlyle and Rodrigo Lopez as guys who can pitch but never get a chance in San Diego.

Perez makes his debut tomorrow afternoon, against the Mariners. Despite his dominance in 2002, Perez has pitched only 23 innings above Class-A and has struggled with his command. I hope he does well in his audition but I’m not overly optimistic. If he’s having trouble throwing strikes in the Southern League, how is that going to translate against big-league hitters?

Time to mow the lawn, or what’s left of it…