Friday Links (11 Jan 2008)
Fri, Jan 11, 2008
by Geoff Young
Before we get started, thanks to everyone who volunteered to help out with the book. Once I’ve finished about a dozen more player writeups, the first draft will be complete. The plan is to get that done today or tomorrow, then read through everything on Sunday and Monday to make sure I haven’t overlooked anything really stupid. Then I’ll start sending stuff your way, probably Wednesday or so.
Speaking of the book, I’m having a lot of fun with the player dashboards. I love the fact that Cla Meredith and Chris Young pitch on the same staff, and when you see how they recorded their outs in 2007, I think you can understand why. There aren’t two more different types of pitchers in all of baseball:
Significance? Dude, it’s cool.
On to the links:
- My debut article at Baseball Digest Daily has been published: “Home Runs and the Power of Perception.” Much of this is review material for the regulars here, but I’ve tried to extend some of my findings so that they’ll be of interest to folks other than Padres fans.
- Our friend Corey Brock at Padres.com examines the Padres corner infielders. In the article, Kevin Towers touches on one of the things I absolutely loved about Kevin Kouzmanoff last year:
I never sensed a guy that was pressing, whereas most younger guys would press in that situation … wondering if they would get benched. But he played with confidence, even though he wasn’t getting his hits.
Yeah, dude was a rock.
- R.J. Anderson at Beyond the Boxscore interviews Paul DePodesta. Quoth DePo:
My definition of a “Moneyball” player is much different than the common usage. I don’t see it as having anything to do with walks or on-base percentage or really any statistic. To me that really misses the point. A “Moneyball” player is an undervalued player for any reason whatsoever.
I wonder how many times he’s had to repeat that sentiment over the years. My guess? Too many.
- The San Antonio Business Journal talks about the Missions’ new coaching staff. Ex-Padre Terry Kennedy will serve as hitting coach, while Bill Masse will manage. Love this bit on Masse:
Masse was a 7th round pick by the New York Yankees in the 1988 Amateur Draft out of Wake Forest University. He was also a member of the 1988 Olympic Gold Medal team in Seoul.
In 1999, Masse portrayed Mike Robinson in the Kevin Costner motion picture “For Love of the Game.”
I hear the movie kind of stunk, but that’s pretty cool.
- Tracy Ringolsby at FOX Sports gives a quick rundown of the NL West. From the Padres section:
Strength: Petco Park is a welcome sight for any pitcher, helping hide deficiencies.
Yep, a park that helps hide deficiencies will get you 89 wins these days; I had no idea. Ringolsby neglects to mention Coors Field in the section on Colorado, the team he covers. So, does this fall into the category of “fair”? Or is it better classified as “balanced”? I can’t decide.
- Gerry Fraley at the Sporting News ranks the NL rotations. According to Fraley, five of the top six are in the NL West.
- Bill at Detroit Tigers Weblog wonders whether San Diego native Alan Trammell’s defense gets unfairly dismissed because of the long grass at Tiger Stadium.
- Dave Studeman at Hardball Times discusses strategies for evaluating hitters, and uses Andre Dawson, Tim Raines, and Hall-of-Famer Tony Gwynn to illustrate his points.
- Also at THT, Sal Baxamusa tackles the issue of what it means to be “average” (hat tip to Didi in the comments).
- LynchMob reminds us that you can find pretty much anything on the Internet, including this video of Eugene Emeralds announcer Matt Keating repeatedly saying “Kellen Kulbacki,” among other things. One criticism: He should have said “boom goes the dynamite” when Kulbacki hit the home run. That would have been sweet.
- Joe Posnanski discusses the Hall of Fame at great length. Although I still haven’t made my way through the entire post, his rant about orange juice is epic:
I once went into a breakfast place in Jacksonville, and I ordered eggs and orange juice and the waitress said, “Oh, sorry, we’re out of orange juice.”
Yeah. Out of orange juice. I want you to think about this for a moment.
- This was a BREAKFAST PLACE — one of those places that closes down at 11:30. It only served breakfast.
- This breakfast place was in Florida. You know. FLORIDA? Sunshine State?
- They were out of orange juice.
I’m thinking he might be a fan of Lewis Black (hat tip to Didi in the comments).
- If you still can’t get enough Hall of Fame coverage, Joe Sheehan at Baseball Prospectus offers his thoughts (hat tip to LynchMob in the comments). Apparently a member of the BBWAA accused Rob Neyer of leading an anti-Jim Rice campaign? Ah, here’s something from Peter Gammons about Neyer being obsessed with “degrading Rice’s career.” Wow, bizarre. The thing is, Rice’s numbers do that without Neyer’s help. I guess there are certain sacred cows that cannot be tipped and Rice’s HOF candidacy has become one of them. Go figure.
- Speaking of Neyer, he’s thrown together a list of the 10 best individual seasons in MLB history (hat tip to Kevin in the comments).
- Nothing to do with baseball, but check out McCoy Tyner tearing it up on John Coltrane’s “Giant Steps.” Uh, wow.
There it is. Happy Friday…
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
January 11, 2008 at 7:46 am
GY, a first!
The first time I remember seeing one of your articles come in on my “Padres” Google alert was today for your Baseball Digest Daily article. Congratulations.
January 11, 2008 at 7:49 am
Ha nice!
Hey LaMar can you shoot me an Email? I have a non-Padres realted Q for you.
Stephen_cook11@hotmail.com
January 11, 2008 at 8:22 am
#1: Cool, thanks! That used to happen every now and then when DS was part of All-Baseball.com (now MVN).
January 11, 2008 at 9:00 am
That Ringolsby article is a total joke. Gotta love these digs:
“The Padres always find a way to be in the mix in the NL West, even though they never matchup man-for-man. ”
“They won’t have the ability to piece together a contender in San Diego in a division that has developed depth.”
And yet, his own team gets these equally inspired raves: “Rockies had to put on strongest season-ending rally in history (won 14 of 15) to claim postseason spot. Young team will build off that success and start strong in 2008.”
“Lineup can do damage. With SS Troy Tulowitzki moving into No. 2 slot, Rockies have 20-plus home run expectations from everybody from second through sixth in lineup — Tulowitzki, LF Matt Holliday, 1B Todd Helton, 3B Garrett Atkins and RF Brad Hawpe.”
Right, there is every reason to believe that they’ll start 08 the way they ended 07. What an ass.
January 11, 2008 at 10:08 am
Stupid but fun:
RHB against Heath Bell in ‘07: .156/.215/.202
Tom Seaver’s career batting line: .154/.219/.210
January 11, 2008 at 10:27 am
Hi Geoff
The Padres are flying Matt in next week They are going to work him out in center and 2nd
January 11, 2008 at 10:30 am
6: Jack, that’s great to hear. Let us know how Matt is adapting to CF.
January 11, 2008 at 10:34 am
Ive been reading that some of you are meeting at spring training Is that open to anyone we will be in on the 7th
January 11, 2008 at 10:50 am
8: Not trying to speak for Geoff, but I’ve never heard of a DS get together that was a closed event. I think it would be WAY cool if you could join in.
January 11, 2008 at 10:51 am
Dude, the Meredith-CY comparison is very cool.
January 11, 2008 at 11:02 am
8: Jack, I think it would be really cool if we can all meet up with you at some point during that weekend.
January 11, 2008 at 11:18 am
#8, 9: Absolutely! We’re still working out details, but more is good.
January 11, 2008 at 11:57 am
6 … I wonder if “in” means to San Diego (and I wonder if that means workouts at Petco?) or to Peoria?
January 11, 2008 at 12:02 pm
This is kind of a punky thing to do on a Friday, but here’s part of something I’m working on for next week:
Khalil Greene: 2219 PA, .254/.312/.444, 101 OPS+
Steve Garvey: 2439 PA, .275/.309/.409, 100 OPS+
Heh, heh…
January 11, 2008 at 12:10 pm
14: LOL.
January 11, 2008 at 12:21 pm
Cameron signs with the brew-crew….
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....id=3192184
January 11, 2008 at 12:23 pm
14: That’s just with the Padres though, right?
4: Ringolsby said Tim Raines was basically Vince Coleman during the recent Hall of Fame talk.
January 11, 2008 at 12:49 pm
A JoeSheehan-chat at BP today starts with this frightful Q&A …
pjfsks (morristown, nj): Joe - you are the man ! The Mets saved $10 million from Glavine leaving plus ‘08 revenues will be up. Who are they going to/should they spend it on?
Joe Sheehan: There’s nothing out there to spend that much money on. You could assemble a trade for Johan Santana, but it doesn’t seem like the Mets will do that, at least at the moment.
Everybody is swimming in cash now. The hardest thing–outside of Miami–is not spending it.
… hmmm, “outside of Miami and San Diego”, he should have said. Hey, I’m a *huge* fan of the whole FO … SA in particular … but it does seem to me that they are not “spending enough” … I’ve been OK with that for a couple of years now … because they are winning … and because it’s not been obvious to me how/who they could/should spend it on (ie. I don’t think they’ve passed up an no-brainer FA signing) …
So, I’m not complaining … as much as I’m noticing that there’s this perception that “Everybody is swimming in cash now” … which means salaries are “low” (compared to what’s available) …
January 11, 2008 at 12:53 pm
http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/.....t_id=18782
A debate about the best right-hander in baseball: Peavy vs. Beckett. Rob Neyer is on the side of logic and Peavy.
January 11, 2008 at 12:53 pm
#17: Correct. I will now point out that Khalil wore #6 when he played at Elsinore and duck for cover…
January 11, 2008 at 12:56 pm
20: HA…..HA……HA…….you are killing me, Geoff.
January 11, 2008 at 1:00 pm
Bummer Mike Cameron ain’t coming back. Oh well. I hope he enjoys Wisconsin.
January 11, 2008 at 1:01 pm
I guess the Padres weren’t willing to match the Brewers’ extremely long-term 1-year contract offer.
January 11, 2008 at 1:04 pm
20: That’s comedy. I have confirmed Khalil as #6 for LE as I recently procured a KG LE bobblehead.
Cameron should put up some pretty good numbers playing in the NL Central, which I’m sure will infuriate the less-considerate-of-facts portion of our fanbase. And I refuse to say it’s a good deal until the cold hard numbers come out in terms of salary.
January 11, 2008 at 1:14 pm
re 23. does anyone think he just didnt like it here??
i mean it sure seemed like he loved it here but i mean c’mon he was giving us so much crap about only wanting to give him 1 or 2 years, and he kept wanting 3 and now he just took a 1 yr contract anyways to be on a less competitive team??
bizarre in my opinion. but i guess we’ll have to wait until they release the terms of the deal. apparantly he got a ‘09 option with it
January 11, 2008 at 1:19 pm
25: I think Cameron flat-out overestimated his value. During the season, he wouldn’t take anything but 3 years. Then, after his suspension comes out, the Padres offer him about 2 years/$20 million and he thinks he can get more. So he goes out onto the open market. And there’s….nothing. Nothing at all. So he settles for a 1-year deal. My guess is that it’s like 1 year/ $13 - 15 million with some kind of 09 option.
19: Thanks for the link. That’s a pretty great read, and Neyer really makes some great defenses of Jake in there.
January 11, 2008 at 1:24 pm
20 … don’t say “duck” to this “beaver”
January 11, 2008 at 1:26 pm
18 … classic Joe Sheehan, if you ask me …
Joe (Tewksbury, MA): Keith Law’s strong (and in my view over the top) comments on ESPN Tuesday “if Rice gets in, just pull the hinges off the doors” (paraphrased) are more harmful than helpful. When the SABRmetric community gets, excuse me, bitchy, don’t we validate however inadvertantly the old school media’s view of SABRmetricians?
Joe Sheehan: I never get this right, but there was a line in “The West Wing,” during the first election storyline…”If they’re going to think you’re arrogant, you might as well just use it.”
We’ve reached that point, at least here at BP. The tone and tenor of our content is vastly different than it was 12, eight or even five years ago. Nevertheless, the same tired refrains about “arrogance,” which have largely always been about “outsiders,” persist.
So screw it. I’m arrogant. It takes a tremendous amount of arrogance to think your thoughts on a topic are so special that people should pay $40/year for them, or pick up a copy of Sports Illustrated, or buy a book, or turn to a particular frequency to hear or see you. All I can do is try to be worth that money, that time, that effort.
My loyalty isn’t to “the SABRmetric commnunity”–which generally rips me. It’s to the argument, and it’s to the people who read, listen and watch BP.
… I *like* the *attitude*!!!
January 11, 2008 at 1:37 pm
Not sure if this has been posted, but Rob Neyer in his Friday blog gave Geoff a nice shout-out for his comments on the Hall of Fame voting
http://insider.espn.go.com/esp.....=neyer_rob
Nice going Geoff!
January 11, 2008 at 2:27 pm
#29: Very cool. Thanks much for the heads-up!
January 11, 2008 at 3:23 pm
Cameron signed a one year deal with worth about $5.5 million, with a team option at $10 million for next year, with a $750,000 buyout. I’d rather have Cameron for one year at that price than Edmonds.
http://blogs.jsonline.com/brew.....sical.aspx
January 11, 2008 at 3:24 pm
31: That is truly stunning. If that’s the case, he must have REALLY wanted to get the hell out of town. You CANNOT blame the Padres on not signing him though. By all accounts, an offer was extended and Cameron turned it down. Now he signs elsewhere for less money.
Does this make any sense to anyone?
January 11, 2008 at 3:30 pm
WAAAY OT …
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/ne.....;type=lgns
For first time since ‘82, NBA grants protest requiring replay
… who’d a thunk it!
January 11, 2008 at 3:32 pm
#32: Yeah, markets change. Cameron and his camp apparently were slow to react to that fact. Bummer for him. He should have extended with us during the season, when he had leverage.
January 11, 2008 at 3:36 pm
I’ve got seven more pitcher profiles to write, but I think those will have to wait for tomorrow. I’m fried. From Doug Brocail’s profile:
I’d love to see Brocail’s triple…
January 11, 2008 at 4:15 pm
And the award for “Biggest Financial Misplay In The Offseason By A Player And His Agent,” the winner is, . . . Mike Cameron.
#35: Stealing someone’s line from last year about Adrian, a Brocail triple would be the most exciting 30 seconds in sports.
January 11, 2008 at 6:06 pm
re: 14, 20:
Well, those numbers aren’t really damning since no one really claims Garvey was an All-Star level player in San Diego.
He had a season and a half of significance in San Diego. In 1983, he was on his way to having one of his best seasons, but he was injured. In 1984, he did not have an All-Star type season, but the Padres won their first division title, and he was the NLCS MVP as the Padres won their first pennant. He also broke the NL consecutive games streak while playing for the Padres.
I know you didn’t mean to start a debate by putting those numbers up, Geoff, but I thought I would defend my favorite player a little.
January 11, 2008 at 6:06 pm
Yup, Cameron’s agent should be fired. Terrible, terrible misread of the market. Sure, we’d all rather have Cameron at this price, but that price wasn’t possible when we needed to sign a CF. Cameron’s agent did an absolutely terrible job negotiating with the Padres. Clearly, he could have made more with the Pads, but he was willing to walk away from the table and the Padres called his bluff. Hurts for both teams. Ugh.
Geoff - not sure if you’ll read this or not tonight, but could you eliminate the pie charts from the “Dashboards”? I really think that a bar chart with bars representing each category of hit and a different colored bar for each player would be much more effective for showing the relative difference between Chris Young and Cla Meredith. If you send me the data, I could create it for you to illustrate if you’d like.
January 11, 2008 at 6:09 pm
32: I really don’t think that this is a sign of Cameron wanting out of San Diego. Rather, it’s a sign of an agent doing a horrific job of negotiating. He misread the market and the mutual interests of his client and the Padres. Camerons “best alternative to a negotiated agreement” (BATNA) was clearly not what his agent had thought it was.
January 11, 2008 at 6:53 pm
38: Why wasn’t that price possible for the Padres? If they had done a better job of reading the market, they would have held off on dealing for Edmonds and continued talks with Cameron.
Also, was there ever an official number thrown out there that the Pads were offering Cameron after he got his suspension?
January 11, 2008 at 6:56 pm
Re: Cameron
Wow. I did not see that coming at all. His agent’s probably fired tomorrow.
I kind of feel bad for Cam a little. I mean, as much as you can feel bad for someone making millions of dollars. The guy could have probably got two years and a lot more $$ from the Pads, and he ends up in Milwaukee for a pro rated 5.25 million.
Plus, the weather’s a lot nicer in SD.
January 11, 2008 at 7:54 pm
40: There’s no way (right now) of knowing for sure, but at the time the Padres needed a CF, I imagine that Cameron’s agent felt he had better options than what the Padres offered. I believe the Padres offered more than what Cameron ultimately signed for, so that leads me to believe that Cameron’s agent woefully misread the market. Yes, this does impart some very slight responsibility on the Padres for not holding off until Cameron was out of options, but realisitically, as long as Cameron had more than one option (e.g. Padres and Brewers) the price was undoubtedly going to be higher to sign him than it would be once their is only one viable option left in the market. This is a case where both sides would have been better off working together to find a mutually advantageous agreement. Instead, it seems Cameron’s side was trying to “win” at all costs, and the ultimate cost ended up being a lower pay level. Again, this seems like a terrible negotiation on the part of Cameron’s agent.
January 11, 2008 at 7:59 pm
43: The point I’m trying to make about negotiations is that they are not always “winner take all”. In cases such as this, both sides could have come out better than they ultimately ended up at (Padres with an aging Edmonds and Cameron with less money) had they done a better job of recognizing each other’s needs and the points in which they were not in conflict. Moreover, both sides, particularly Cameron’s, needed to read the market better to truly understand what their “best alternative to a negotiated agreement) was.
January 11, 2008 at 8:18 pm
re 38: Whoa. Just reread that. Came out way wrong. Wrote it after coming home after a few too many Jack & Coke’s at dinner with my wife. What I meant to say was
“Geoff, love the dashboard concept. I think you might find it easier to illustrate your points if you tried bar graphs instead of pie charts. Just my 2 cents”.
Of course, I didn’t say that so I’m just a pompous jerk. Sorry!
January 12, 2008 at 1:48 am
#44: Thanks, Marsh, for the feedback. I’m going to stick with the pie charts for two reasons:
1. Part of my original intent, which I haven’t explicitly stated, was to pay homage to a game I played as a kid:
http://major-smolinski.com/SIGspindr.html
2. I don’t have time to properly evaluate alternatives at this stage, but I’ll keep your suggestions in mind for the 2009 book.
Anyway, you’re not a pompous jerk. I understand the spirit with which your comments were offered and I appreciate it!
January 12, 2008 at 6:25 am
I wouldn’t have minded signing Cameron for $4.25 and putting Edmonds in LF.
January 12, 2008 at 7:10 am
44: Has me chuckling, I am a strategy consultant and we spend a *lot* of time arguing over visual representation of mekko’s. I am with you on the cluster bar chart. (My firm doesn’t do pie charts anyway..:-)
January 12, 2008 at 9:05 am
13: They are flying Matt into San Diego he will be working out at Petco
January 12, 2008 at 12:05 pm
The Padres absolutely need to get a veteran outfielder in here to rent for a year — Kielty,Gonzalez, or maybe even a Kenny Lofton. It may be pure suicide) to simply put an unproven Antonelli/Headley in the outfield with no previous experience. What is their depth chart in the outfield ? Edmonds and Giles could get hurt in the blink of an eye and who will we put in centerfield ? Drew Macias.
January 12, 2008 at 12:09 pm
Let Matt Antonelli get 400 to 500 at bats at the AAA level and playing second base - he is our second basemen of the future. Jack, you must be concerned about rushing Matt, learning a new position and all the while figuring out MLB pitching.
January 12, 2008 at 12:27 pm
50 I just feel that if they wanted Matt to play center why waste a year putting him at 2nd i would have liked to see what he could do in the bigs and if they felt he was overmatched than sent him to AAA
January 12, 2008 at 1:16 pm
Right now, Antonelli must be in the starting lineup at the big league level otherwise he needs reps at AAA. Reps at what position though? Should we take away from his growth at second base in lieu of now suddenly putting him in the outfield ? The Pads would be close to crazy not to bring another vet in here to anchor down the outfield. Why wouldn’t they get a Luis Gonzalez or Kenny Lofton in here ? They cannot honestly be thinking that a Chip Ambres or Drew Macias is an adequate option for 80-90 starts do they ?
January 12, 2008 at 1:20 pm
And suddenly the list of viable outfield free agents dwindles and dwindles……I don’t like the idea of the Padres ‘bottom feeding” for a cheaper deal this time. Lets get a decent anchor in here. Davanon,Ambres, P-Mac, and Macias (along with two kids who now suddenly are being shifted to entirely new positions) doesn’t sit right with me.
January 12, 2008 at 3:34 pm
47: What firm do you work for? The firm I interned with (and am joining in the fall) doesn’t do Pie Charts either. Seems like a good ol’ stacked bar chart will do the trick anytime a pie-chart seems warranted…
Oh, I’m joining Bain this fall.
January 12, 2008 at 3:36 pm
45: Geoff, you’re the best. That’s pretty much all that needs to be said. Love everything you put together!
January 12, 2008 at 4:50 pm
If the Orioles are about to acquire Adam Jones for Erik Bedrard, maybe there’s a chance for us to trade Headley for Jones. We’d probably have to add a little more to this deal, but it would be nice to get the centerfielder of the future (and he’s a local kid, too).
January 12, 2008 at 5:14 pm
Any of the Brewer outfielders the Padres should look into acquiring?
Cameron, when he’s back off his suspension, will man CF so that move Bill Hall to 3B and Ryan Braun to LF.
Who’s in RF? Hart, Gross, and so on for the Brewers?
56: That’s a good idea but an interesting move on the Orioles. I’d imagine there’s more to the trade than a straight swap.
Not sure what the Orioles are looking for their team.
January 13, 2008 at 12:06 am
Marsh what office? I am a Bainie…
January 13, 2008 at 1:06 am
58: Awesome! Boston. You?
January 13, 2008 at 8:20 am
I am in the SF office
January 13, 2008 at 9:15 am
Re: 56 I would imagine it would take Headley and Bell to get jones form the O’s.
January 13, 2008 at 9:25 am
I know there’s not a ton of Chargers fans here, but for those that are - the time has come to get the job done.
January 13, 2008 at 12:26 pm
I would rather acquire Bedard.
January 13, 2008 at 2:11 pm
63: Me too but the Padres probably don’t have what the Orioles want if Adam Jones is an indication.
What happened to Jeremy Reed?
January 13, 2008 at 2:36 pm
62: How bout dem apples!
January 13, 2008 at 2:51 pm
63: Bedrard’s not an option. We’d have to gut the team to acquire him. Jones fills a hole for us and Headley fills a need for the O’s.
January 13, 2008 at 7:30 pm
If Headley fills a need for the Orioles, then why couldn’t the Padres try it?
The Padres need Bedard more than Jones.
January 13, 2008 at 8:12 pm
66: How so? I don’t see the Padres trading Headley to start and I don’t see the Orioles to be interested in any players that the Padres have.
I don’t see how the price of acquiring Jones would be any cheaper than getting Bedard if those two are trading for each other.
January 13, 2008 at 9:03 pm
The Orioles are rumored to be giving up Jones, Jeff Clement (a 5-star catching prospect), and another top pitching prospect or young SS prospect to get Bedrard. The second two prospects would both rank above anyone other than Headley in the Padres organization.
That’s why Bedrard’s not an option.
January 13, 2008 at 9:15 pm
61: I doubt that it would take Bell as well, but I do think that we’d have to add something to the deal.
January 13, 2008 at 10:12 pm
Hey, Geoff, Coltrane is from my hometown — High Point, N.C.
And of course, Philip Rivers, from my alma mater, is a god.