Wednesday Links (3 Jan 07)
Wed, Jan 3, 2007
by Geoff Young
Slow news day, so we’ll run our link roundup a little early this week. Before we do that, though, a quick update on the book: I just finished Chapter 3 yesterday, and I’m about halfway through Chapter 6 (I’m working out of sequence in part because the Hall of Fame vote hasn’t taken place yet — I know, but we all have our superstitions).
Anyway, as it stands now, the book is 90 pages long. Not counting fact-checking and editing, I’d say I’m about 30% done. I need to finish writing by the second or third week in February, so I’ll be banging out a chapter a week from now until then. I haven’t posted an excerpt in a while, but I’ll have more of those up as they become available — probably starting next week.
To the links:
- Seventh Annual Weblog Awards. Once again, the Bloggies are upon us; they are accepting nominations through January 10. For the first time this year, there is a “Best Sports Weblog” category.
- 2007 ZiPS Projections - San Diego Padres (Baseball Think Factory). Dan has posted his projections for the Padres. Off the top of my head, the numbers for Adrian Gonzalez, Todd Walker, and Clay Hensley seem a bit pessimistic. Then again, if Terrmel Sledge hits .260/.339/.436 and Jake Peavy finishes with a 3.23 ERA, I think most of us will be happy.
- The Bandwagon Stops in San Diego (Baseball Prospectus). Several folks (thank you!) pointed me to Nate Silver’s enthusiastic piece on the Padres. I’m not sure, but I think Nate also likes fish tacos.
- Extremely Early Projections (via Baseball Musings). SG applies CHONE projections to each team and runs 100 Diamond Mine simulations of the 2007 season. The Padres come in at 83-79, six games back of the Giants and four back of the wild card. Two teams from the NL Central in the playoffs? Sorry, not seeing it.
- San Diego Padres Trade Tree. I wish I could take credit for this, but no such luck. Andy at Really Awesome Things has created a graphical representation of the trade that brought Adrian Gonzalez, Terrmel Sledge, and Chris Young to San Diego. It traces the deal back to its roots, invoking names such as Bob Geren, Sixto Lezcano, and Gene Tenace.
- Baseball in Fort Wayne. I found this through a post on Chad Gramling’s Baseball Blog and thought it was mighty cool. Not everything here is Padres related, obviously, because baseball has a fairly rich history in Fort Wayne, but I like to give some love to our minor league towns and Chad does good work.
- 2007 San Diego Padres Prospects (Minor League Ball; thanks to Peter for the heads-up). This is John Sickels’ list and there aren’t any real surprises, although it’s a bit irritating to see guys like Vince Sinisi and Royce Ring at the bottom. This organization should be able to do better than that.
- Countdown to 2007: Baseball Digest Daily’s Top Web Sites of 2006. Joe Hamrahi offers a list of “the most important and influential web sites to us here at BDD” and I’m honored that Ducksnorts is on it. Actually, it’s fascinating to look at these names and realize how many of them I’ve been in varying degrees of contact with over the years. Glad to see Top Prospect Alert still is going strong — I wrote for them in 1999-2000.
That’s all for now. More as it happens…
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
January 3, 2007 at 8:37 am
This is OT but this an interesting article about a 112 year old redsox fan who saw ruth pitch a fenway.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....id=2718539
January 3, 2007 at 9:26 am
Saw this headline in the UT online and thought WTH…
Sources: Cards to talk to Cameron
Guess that’s Cam Cameron, Charger OC, the guy responsible for those trick plays this year, taking to the Az Cards. Wonder if he was taking notes during that Boisey State game.
January 3, 2007 at 9:37 am
Re: 2 that was an awsome game, Cam Cameron will be gone after this year, he will have his choice between the cards, falcons and Dolphins.
January 3, 2007 at 11:05 am
3: I’d really hate to see Cam go. Maybe he could just be a highly paid OC.
January 3, 2007 at 11:06 am
Re: 4 Ego!
January 3, 2007 at 11:22 am
Cam’s good, but with the weapons the Chargers have many bright, talented OC’s will be beating down the Spanos’ doors if Cam leaves.
January 3, 2007 at 11:32 am
R: 6 I agree I think LT, Gates, Rivers and the O line make cam’s job a little easier.
January 3, 2007 at 12:13 pm
From Brushback.com: the funniest article I’ve read this year.
New Derek Jeter Cologne Praised For Its Intangibles
NEW YORK–In an interview on Sportscenter, ESPN baseball analyst John Kruk praised Derek Jeter’s new cologne, Driven, for its intangibles and for all the little things that it brings to the table.
“Derek Jeter’s Driven is one of those rare colognes that does a little bit of everything,” Kruk said. “Does it smell as great as other colognes? No. Does it come in as fancy a bottle as other colognes? No. But when you’re going out with a girl, and it’s your first date, and you really want to make an impression, there is no other fragrance that you want in that situation. Smelling like Derek Jeter makes me feel confident and relaxed. Actually, smelling like anybody but myself makes me feel confident and relaxed.”
Driven, though not as expensive or pleasant-smelling as other fragrances, was voted Best Cologne of the Year by the Associated Press, which also loved its intangibles.
January 3, 2007 at 12:19 pm
It isn’t even so much that I’m afraid we can’t get a guy as good as Cam, it’s just that teams almost always take a step back under a new coordinator.
January 3, 2007 at 12:26 pm
Anybody heard the interview with Grady Fuson on Mighty XX last night?
He likes Venable quite a bit and think that he’ll get better and the organization is going to push him a bit more this year, noting his age and his relatively low experiences playing baseball in college and HS.
January 3, 2007 at 12:27 pm
Re: 9 true
January 3, 2007 at 12:48 pm
FriarFest on Jan 27+28 … http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/.....p;c_id=mlb
January 3, 2007 at 1:42 pm
The fan fest sounds like fun but I’m disappointed by one item:
“Kids can clock the speed of their fastball in a bullpen session,”
Kids? What if us adults want to air it out?
January 3, 2007 at 1:57 pm
Thanks for linking Baseball in Fort Wayne. Looking forward to watching your community grow and the work you’re producing.
January 3, 2007 at 2:09 pm
A couple interesting tidbits from reading my Christmas present, Bill James HB 07 (Sorry if this has been covered)
Peavy’s ERC - paraphrasing, what his ERA should be based on his other numbers - was 3.42; Zito’s, 4.47. Maybe unlucky 06 was making up for Peavy’s lucky 04. OGiles, whom a lot of us probably consider to be a good, heady baserunner, was rated as a -8 in that dept.; KG, -14. I know we’ve covered AGon and Piazza.
January 3, 2007 at 3:39 pm
Two things:
–What did the guys who ran around Qualcomm looking like Wally Joyner call themselves? For the life of me, I cannot remember.
–Scroll down most of this page to read a hilarious anecdote from the ‘98 season about the Padres getting lost in Montreal.
January 3, 2007 at 3:46 pm
GY: I think they referred to themselves as “Wally’s World.” That’s a stretch for me, though.
January 3, 2007 at 4:32 pm
15: Dan Fox over at BP chimed in with his list of the best baserunners of 2006 (you have to be a subscriber to read it).
http://www.baseballprospectus......cleid=5774
His list considers several key elements that James’ doesn’t, including various factors influencing whether a runner advances (like number of outs and handedness of the batter following), adding in advancing on ground balls, and several other fine tunings. Ultimately, it removes Piazza and Gonzalez from the list of the 10 worst baserunners of 2006. So, despite tearing the fabric of the universe apart, apparently they aren’t quite as harmful to the team as at least 10 others.
January 3, 2007 at 5:19 pm
Re: 16…pretty sure it was Wally’s World…
Remember the Rob Deer fans (yes, it was plural) that would walk around with antlers and targets…Deer hunting or something like that?!
January 3, 2007 at 5:28 pm
Saw this just a min ago on Rotoworld…
Randy Johnson: Padres Make Late Offer - 1/3/2007 7:46:35 AM
Update:
The Padres have made their final trade offer for Johnson, who is expected to be dealt somewhere by the end of the week, an anonymous major league source told the North County Times.
Recommendation:
It sounds like Arizona and San Diego are the front-runners to land Johnson. The Padres and Yankees have already worked out the economics of the deal, which is reportedly a sticking point between the Diamondbacks and Yankees. San Diego would likely send set-up man Scott Linebrink and other major and minor league talent to the Yankees, while Arizona would trade two of these three pitchers: Brandon Medders, Ross Ohlendorf and Micah Owings.
Now, Sandy Alderson is on XX right now and said that yes he would take RJ on the Padres, yes it would probably include a trade of Linebrink, and no they would not give him a contract extension. He also said that the rumors out of NY of Linebrink and Kouz for RJ are made up by “Dreamers” in NY.
These rumors can’t be more than to push AZ to sweeten the pot…can’t imagine that the Pads would actually do anything like this for a 43 year old pitcher off of back surgury and elbow problems…
January 3, 2007 at 6:00 pm
18: They didn’t actually tear the space-time fabric, they only threatened to if forced to run in directly opposite directions. You’d have to take off baserunning points if they caused some kind of Hawking event.
Adrian seemed to learn early in the season that he couldn’t stretch for doubles. Like Dirty Harry said, a man’s got to know his limitations.
January 3, 2007 at 6:20 pm
Good point on Sinisiisisisisi and Ring, GY. I see that the MadFriars crew has put together a Top 60 Padre prospect list. Writing reviews of prospects 31 through 60 would make most fans stick their heads in boiling water. Even 20 through 30 would be a grind.
January 3, 2007 at 6:57 pm
20: I’d love to have Randy Johnson on the team for next year, as long as the cost is “only” Linebrink and change, and there’s no contract extension. Arizona getting Johnson helps fix their glaring weakness and definitely makes the a contender for the division next year. PECOTA had Johnson projected at 3.52 era for the Yanks. We do need a fifth starter, and there’s no one available close to as good as Johnson.
From BP’s year in review quotes (my personal favorite):
“Frankly, that would make us look like buffoons.”
–Padres GM Kevin Towers, on the rumor that Jose Lima signed with San Diego (Kansas City Star)
http://www.baseballprospectus......cleid=5785
(no subscription required)
January 3, 2007 at 8:13 pm
Mike-
i’ve got to side with Ben on this one. What’s not to like about Johnson is pretty obvious: he’s old, he’s not very pretty, he’s got some health concerns, and he’s coming off a little bit of a rough season. That being said, he is worlds better than any other candidate for our fifth starter position out there. Every projection system out there loves him for next year. They don’t treat every forty-three year old pitcher that way. The guy is probably one of the top-10 pitchers in MLB history. If you’ve got a chance to get a guy like that for a set-up man with one year left on his deal and change, you have to leap at the chance. With Johnson, the Padres might have the best rotation in baseball next year and would be clear-cut favorites to win the NL West (at the very least).
January 3, 2007 at 10:47 pm
24: Well, they should already be the favorites in the West, though landing RJ (and the DBacks not landing him) would make it a good bit more clear-cut. I’d go so far as to say the Padres are already the best team in the NL.
January 4, 2007 at 2:35 am
Johnson is definitely problematic as a projection. The primary reason from what I’ve read is his lack of comparables, which is probably a big part of why projections don’t treat other 43 year old pitchers like him. That being said I have also read a few different analyses which point out his performance last year by certain metrics is much better than what his ERA suggests. Then there is the whole back and knee health issues. I still think I’d prefer Wells for much less money than Johnson and holding onto Linebrink, or dealing him for a power bat such as Burrell. Still if the Yankees are willing to pick up a good chunk of salary, he’s worth a gamble. It’d be tough to bet against him.
January 4, 2007 at 7:11 am
Paul R…one glaring problem…$16mm. Sixteen Million is his salary for next season…that puts him among the elite…not a #5 guy.
Would love to have him…and IF he only cost us Linebrink I would do it, but he would also cost us $16mm and probably any chance we have at getting a hitter for LF.
January 4, 2007 at 7:15 am
Our interest in signing RJ also might stem from the financial chaos it will wreak with the D’Backs, who are looking to bring him back in part to help unsnarl all the back pay they owe him already. If he’s not on their roster, they can’t redo any of those deals, right?
January 4, 2007 at 7:40 am
Looks like Loretta is going to houston
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....id=2719795
January 4, 2007 at 7:53 am
I’m wondering if the talk about RJ is to get Wells to be more realistic. Ever since the dinner with KT was cancelled due to Wells illness, it’s been awfully quiet on that front.
January 4, 2007 at 8:40 am
Ben Howard has signed with the Cubs.
January 4, 2007 at 9:08 am
For what it’s worth: Sabean said the Giants are not having further discussions with Boomer.
http://www.contracostatimes.co.....381059.htm
January 4, 2007 at 9:19 am
USA Today reporting that the NYY and the Diamondbacks have a deal in place…sounds like an extension is being worked out and they expect that the deal will be completed this week.
http://www.usatoday.com/sports.....rade_x.htm
January 4, 2007 at 10:05 am
Never play poker with Greg Maddux from the same BP article above (23).
“Great card player. You could tell he knew what people had in their hands. And he had a really good idea of how you played.”
–Marlins manager Joe Girardi, on Greg Maddux.
“If we’re playing poker, and a flush is supposed to come like one out of 100 hands, and I get a flush in five hands, does that mean it’s now one in five? No.”
–Maddux, on the beauty of small sample sizes.
January 4, 2007 at 10:53 am
re 34
Can anyone else see Maddux winning a huge chunk of Jake’s salary in poker games on the team charters this year? Jake is: a) way too emotional to be a good poker player and b) way too competitive not to play.
January 4, 2007 at 11:55 am
Re: 35…that made me laugh…mainly b/c it is true!!!
I just bought tickets for spring training in AZ…seats to the Giants park (just to heckle Flan and that is the only ballpark in Phoenix I have not been to), back to Surprise, AZ to see TX and KC, and also, of course, to Peoria…
Man, it is sick that I am so excited about spring training…pitchers and catchers don’t even report for another 42 days…but hey, whose counting??
January 4, 2007 at 12:11 pm
Was just reading about Regression Analysis and how it relates to hitters…here:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/m.....i-regress/
Interesting that Josh Bard is on the most likely to decline for both BA and OPS…interesting, but certainly not warranted.
January 4, 2007 at 12:11 pm
I meant to say:
Interesting that Josh Bard is on the most likely to decline for both BA and OPS…interesting, but certainly not UNwarranted.
January 4, 2007 at 12:33 pm
Ron Shandler noted that he thinks Josh Bard will have an effective ‘07 and that the seeds of him being a good base hitter have been there for a while.
January 4, 2007 at 2:41 pm
38: But it’s still a good sign that even with the regression Bard has an OPS over 800. I’d absolutely take those regressed numbers from him.
January 4, 2007 at 2:58 pm
I just heard XX announce that the Randy Johnson to DBacks trade had been preliminarily approved by both teams. No details on who, though.
January 4, 2007 at 3:08 pm
From ESPN
“Arizona would send pitcher Luis Vizcaino to the Yankees along with minor league pitcher Ross Ohlendorf and shortstop Alberto Gonzalez, another baseball official said, also on condition of anonymity. The Yankees also might receive another minor league pitcher, the official said, and would pay between $1.5 million and $2 million of Johnson’s $16 million salary this year.”
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....id=2720413
January 4, 2007 at 3:15 pm
the D’backs did not give up much of the future to get him (except for payroll).
Also when did the D backs change from teal and purple to red and black? well I hope that the new colors will give them the same kind success that they have brought to SDSU football over the last 10 years.
January 4, 2007 at 3:22 pm
I read that Steven Jackson might either be the only minor league pitcher going or the second one.
So much for the Johnson deal ripping the heart out of the DBax farm system. They keep their top talent, get a pitcher who could easily be among the top 5 in the NL, and might free up future salary by restructuring his deferred payments. Vizcaino’s making around 2 million in 2007, they get up to 2 million from the Yankees, so Johnson adds 12 million to their payroll.
If he’s healthy, the NL West just got tighter. If he’s not healthy, they didn’t lose anybody, and they’ve proven that they won’t go cheap in the draft because their major league payroll is high.
January 4, 2007 at 3:26 pm
Re 43: The color change was announced right after the close of the regular season. While it looks good, I kind of prefer more unique color schemes rather than either blue, red, gold (which it seems everyone is going to nowadays).
But the Taco colors of the early Padres was atrocious. I liked the blue & orange with pinstripes personally.
Which leads to an interesting debate: What is your favorite Padres uniform and why?
January 4, 2007 at 3:27 pm
Tom…that last paragraph felt like a dig on the Pads front office!
January 4, 2007 at 3:31 pm
Just in time for Valentine’s day you can buy “Game Used Dirt” from the San Diego Padres…
http://shop.mlb.com/product/in.....cp=1452364
January 4, 2007 at 4:04 pm
OT - I’m realizing how good the mlb.com web page is for finding & seeing video highlights … ’cause I’m not finding a good place to see highlights of the recent bowl games … I’m interested to see the trick plays that BSU pulled off to beat Okla … and I’ve heard that WVU had a sorta-trick-play in the Gator Bowl … and I’d like to see some highlights of the LSU QB from last night … anyone got a favorite place for CF highlights?
January 4, 2007 at 4:34 pm
48 - Answering my own question … http://msn.foxsports.com/cfb/bowls/fiesta … and there’s also Suger highlights … but I’m still not finding anything from Gator … I’m looking to see the play where the GT d-lineman jump’d, then the WVU O-linemen froze, which caused all the GT defenders to freeze, and the QB threw a 57-yard TD pass to the only player going full out … sounds like a fun play to see!
January 4, 2007 at 4:42 pm
Pardon me if this has been posted before … Knott signed with O’s … http://blogs.baltimoresun.com/....._knot.html (link thanks to Jonathan @ pdxbeavers)
January 4, 2007 at 4:49 pm
46: Not my intention, although I’ve earned the rep. It was more a preemptive response to anyone who might think that the Johnson trade is a potential franchise killer. They didn’t scratch their minor league system, Johnson’s salary isn’t a burden, and they can easily replace what they traded.
We’ve gone cheap in the draft regardless of our major league payroll.
50: I always wanted Knott to get a shot with us. We could use a RH pinch-hitter, but apparently Mike Adams and Craig Stansberry are more important.
January 4, 2007 at 4:58 pm
45: I’m a huge fan of the old ugly jerseys that were worn for the throwback game last year. I don’t really care how aesthetically pleasing the colors are; I just like uniqueness. The blue and orange unis were good too. Basically, I liked everything we had before we went bland with the blue and white and sand.
With the Johnson trade, the NL West looks like the second best division in baseball this year.
January 4, 2007 at 5:06 pm
Tom, I usually agree with your assesments, so I was not offended…
I would say that if we made a similar trade it would have been a system killer b/c the prospects they traded were about as good as most of our top 10 guys…
January 4, 2007 at 5:51 pm
The “enemy” over at http://www.truebluela.com has a series of interesting posts up comparing the Dodgers to every other NL West team using ZIPS projections (they’re a couple of posts down on the main page). The conclusion seems to be the Padres are the slight favorites, with the Dodgers and D-backs right on their heels, and the Rockies a couple of good breaks away from being right there. If Barry Bonds somehow plays in 150 games, the Giants could compete as well. It’s going to be a very tight division.
January 4, 2007 at 10:23 pm
RE Unis: I love the originals from 1969. Very basic, but classic in design and yet unique because of the brown and gold color scheme, which I absolutely love. I think it looks great, and they were my high school colors.
If I can’t have that, I like the change to brown and orange with the pinstripes the team went to after the 1984 season. Still unique in color scheme, good looking, simple design, and a classic look.
Don’t care for the blue in any shape or form in large part because of the association it has for me with the Werner ownership. It’s also overused. Everyone uses blue as a base color, almost no one uses brown.
January 4, 2007 at 10:56 pm
MOBILE, Ala. — San Diego Padres pitcher Jake Peavy was arrested and charged with disorderly conduct Thursday at Mobile Regional Airport.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....id=2720716
January 5, 2007 at 1:41 am
RE 56: As far as Padres history and pitchers run ins with law enforcement, this barely ranks a footnote. LaMar Hoyt, Eric Show, now those were pitchers who knew how to get arrested.
January 5, 2007 at 5:19 am
Yeah — he was arrested for double parking his car and being a smart ass. I don’t know what’s more ridiculous — what he supposedly said to the officers, or them arresting him.
Well, I guess we know now — no star treatment for Peavy in his home state!
January 5, 2007 at 5:50 am
45 - my favorite uni’s were definitely the blue and orange!!! So much so that my wedding was blue and orange!
Also, from Rotoworld:
According to CBS Sportsline’s Scott Miller, the deal the Padres and the Yankees were working on would have sent Scott Linebrink and third base prospect Chase Headley to New York for Randy Johnson.
That sounds quite a bit better than the package from Arizona. However, the Yankees would have had to pay about $7.5 million of what Johnson was owed, as opposed to $2 million in the deal with the Diamondbacks
January 5, 2007 at 7:29 am
The Peavy arrest brings me back to my comment at #35. Now I’m starting to believe the whole reason Maddux signed with the Padres was to get a crack at Peavy’s bankroll.
January 5, 2007 at 7:29 am
Peavy’s arrest does not bother me so much, but it is showing a bit of the arrogance that I had never gotten from him.
Just a bummer really…
January 5, 2007 at 7:38 am
I love the brown orange and mustard jerseys!
January 5, 2007 at 7:40 am
If Jake’s efforts were to increase his marketability by developing street “cred,” his arrest for disorderly conduct while flying to Costa Rica for Christian purposes, likely falls short.
I’m not sure I’d put this on Jake for arrogance yet. I happened to like his line, “Go tell a real cop.” to the Mobile equivalent of the Harbor Police.
January 5, 2007 at 7:45 am
I guess that is where I have a problem with what he said…Call me over-respectful, but if the Harbor Police ask me to move my car, I will say “yes, sir” and do it. Not say something like “I have more money than I need. Write me a ticket and I will pay it. I won’t be inconvenienced by carrying my bags like the rest of the little people.”
January 5, 2007 at 8:26 am
62 - Steve, you need help ;>)
63 & 64 - I like Peavy alot, but I agree with you CM. Not the best witness of his faith when this kind of thing happens (and it usually happens to all of us at some time or another in our lives).
January 5, 2007 at 8:35 am
Re: 65 I know
January 5, 2007 at 8:49 am
PF4L…That is why I am thankful that I am not famous. Has to be a very tough place to live out Christian faith.
January 5, 2007 at 10:20 am
67 - Can’t agree more, but then consider the impact you can make if you remain true.