Padres (Finally) Recapture First Place
Mon, Sep 18, 2006
by Geoff Young
It was a long time coming, but worth the wait. Not that this is the end, mind you. As the fortune cookie from last night’s Chinese dinner informed me, “Winning starts with beginning.” I don’t really understand it either, but it seems vaguely applicable to the situation and I doubt I’ll get another chance to use it, so there you go.
The Padres, behind six innings of nerve-wracking one-hit ball from Chris Young (he walked five batters) and strong work from the bullpen, defeated the Dodgers, 2-1, Sunday afternoon in Los Angeles to return to first place in the NL West for the first time since August 10. Pinch-hitter Terrmel Sledge singled home pinch-runner Khalil Greene in the top of the ninth against Jonathan Broxton to break the deadlock. Trevor Hoffman sealed the deal in the bottom half with his 39th save of the season and #475 of his career, bringing him to within three of Lee Smith’s all-time career mark.
Unlikely heroes? Yes, there were a few. Russell Branyan, who has been better than advertised since coming to the Pads from Tampa Bay, opened the scoring on Sunday with an opposite-field solo homer off Derek Lowe in the fifth. And although the seemingly invincible Cla Meredith coughed up a solo shot to Russell Martin in the seventh, snapping the rookie reliever’s scoreless innings streak at 34, the guys behind him in the ‘pen had his back.
Scott Linebrink again looked like the pitcher we used to know (Peter’s got some interesting numbers on him), shutting down the Dodgers in the eighth after allowing a lead single to Jeff Kent. And obviously Sledge came through at an opportune time. His seventh RBI of the year just might be his biggest.
Perhaps more important than all this, though, is the fact that the Padres players seem to believe in themselves and are no longer focused on the front-office’s “failure” to make big moves at the trade deadline. This club is beginning to see the possibilities, and as we all know, winning starts with beginning.
First place is a good place to be, but today is another day. Time to begin again.
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
September 18, 2006 at 7:32 am
I the the Padre ealized that they are the holders of first place for mos tthe year and that it is our rightful position. The Dodgers can have the WC. Important game tonight to seal that idea in the Dodger mind. And we have 6 home games left, I really hope to see a ton od fan out at the dog dish/doggy bag/dog park to root our boys home to vicitory in the NL West. BTW, I wonder if Shawn Merimen can swing a bat. Just curious.
September 18, 2006 at 7:58 am
Note: Thank Trevor Hoffman for having the foresight to blow the save in the All Star Game, assuring the Padres that they will have “Visiting Team” advantage in the World Series.
“On the road, the Padres lead the league in batting average (.277) and on-base percentage (.343), and are tied for second with Atlanta in slugging (.446), trailing only the New York Mets’ .460.
At home, where homers, triples and doubles go to die, they’re dead last in all three categories — .246 batting, .385 slugging, .318 on-base percentage.” (Courtesy, Padres.com)
September 18, 2006 at 8:24 am
Trevor is always thinking about the team!
September 18, 2006 at 8:33 am
haha Good point LaMar
September 18, 2006 at 8:46 am
Watched it late on Tivo last night. An anxiety-inducing game. If CY had better control, he could have gone the distance. I will read last night’s IGD, but I have never seen a pitcher drop a ball during delivery, much less twice. Something to do with his thumb that loses feeling?
Giles at bat against Broxton was horrid. I think this is the second time I have seen an opposing team load the bases to get to Giles, and the second time I have seen him uncharacteristically aggressive, swinging at 2-3 bad pitches, a weekly total for him normally.
Linebrink struck out Betemit, in the battle of trade players.
Also, I will have to double check, but is this possibly the first time in history that both the Chargers and Padres had sole possession of first place on the same day?
September 18, 2006 at 8:47 am
Knocking on wood, as not to jinx, but this last match up would appear to favor the Padres, so winning last night was huge. Puts a lot more pressure on Penny than Peavy.
September 18, 2006 at 10:08 am
BP Playoff Odds:
Aug 20: Padres (61-62) 25.96%
Padres official news release:
Aug 20 5:05 PM ET
“Padres purchase contract of Manny Alexander”
Today: Padres (78-70) 80.59%
Merely coincidence!?!
September 18, 2006 at 10:13 am
LOL - What dprat? You thought it might be something else? As Manny goes, so goes the Padres.
September 18, 2006 at 11:27 am
That’s just Manny being Manny.
September 18, 2006 at 11:59 am
Manny is clearly a “clubhouse” guy
September 18, 2006 at 12:25 pm
Under the heading “San Diego not getting national love”
The Padres are 1st (in MLB, not just NL) in converting balls-in-play into outs (71.7%) & 2nd (in MLB, 1st in NL) in runs allowed (they’ve allowed 625 runs to score, Detroit is 1st with 603)…
With the facts on hand and with the cliche “Pitching & Defense wins championships” is anyone else wondering why the Padres have yet to get significant backing for their post-season run (the only National guy I can think of who said we’d get in was Steve Phillips).
I have Ken Rosenthal’s e-mail address, I’m gonna e-mail him…
September 18, 2006 at 12:58 pm
I think Olney said the Pads would win the division as well. Don’t know if he “counts” b/c he covered the Pads for a few years.
Great win last night. I think this series is putting the Pads on everyone’s radar. This is not the same team that won it last year. No matter what happens in the end, the ‘06 Padres have been better than the ‘05 version. There is actually no comparison in my mind. Much more consistency this year. These guys did not fall apart after June.
September 18, 2006 at 1:25 pm
In defense of the national media, we’re still not in. A cold streak in the next 14 games and we’re watching somebody else.
Somebody at the Hardball Times said we could be very dangerous in the playoffs because of that pitching. Not national but nice.
To be fair, our infield defense is compromised when Blum’s out there, and it looks like he may be out there from now on.
Can anyone with a medical background explain why Greene doesn’t have a splint or a wrap on his hand? Even if there’s a minimal chance of it preventing further injury, it would seem smart, especially the way he slides.
September 18, 2006 at 1:33 pm
A couple of days ago I mentioned on my ‘blog that San Diego should be players in the Soriano-FA-stakes… I just posted a bit of expanded commentary.
(Click on my name to go to my site.)
September 18, 2006 at 1:44 pm
Are they’re any doctors in the house to explina what exactly is wrong with Greenes’ finger. Apparently, he can field just fine, but can’t swing the bat. Strange injury. Would like to know what it is.
September 18, 2006 at 1:50 pm
Solid Shiz, Senor Friberg. Can’t wait to see jake on the mound tonight. Can anyone think of a game he’s started with greater importance in the last two years? The “please don’t let us win this thing with only 81 wins” game last year was started by Eaton, and yes, jake started in the playoffs, but he was not healthy. These are games where legends are made, eh! So stoked!
Re:Khalil. It’s a ligament injury (similar to Eaton’s). Any irritation of the injury makes it puff up from swelling. He’s fine in the field because there’s nothing too stretchy going on there. I had a similar injury on my ring finger in college (from basketball) and it took a really long time to heal and feel right .
September 18, 2006 at 2:01 pm
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September 18, 2006 at 2:07 pm
16: You’d think that putting his hand on the ground to absorb some percentage of Greene’s weight when he slides would be a risk to stretch it out, though. There’s no disadvantage to wrapping that paw in a plastic splint during the game. The way it’s lingering, they should be doing everything to protect it.
September 18, 2006 at 2:18 pm
Re: Soriano. One big difference is the Padres have several LF options. Re-sign Roberts and look for a ~4 WARP. Use some mix of Johnson, Sledge, and McAnulty. They’re not going to be 60 VORP players, but Soriano could easily fall. Has he said anything about signing where he could play 2B?
On the pitching side we don’t have those kind of internal options.
September 18, 2006 at 2:53 pm
TW, no?
Peavy, Young, & Hensley are back unless traded (only 1 of the latter 2 could be trade-candidates).
Williams & Park could both return.
Michael Thompson could be a #5 candidate… Plus, much has been made about KT’s love affair with Meche (who he could get for around $5m per)… And don’t forget that if Cesar Carrillo is healthy, he’ll likely be ready before the end of 2007. So there are internal candidates at SP (yes I know, Meche isn’t internal)…
Let’s back up, at it’s most basic form, baseball is trying to score runs and preventing the other team from doing the same.
In one catagory we’re 26th in all of baseball with 663 runs scored
In the other, we’re 2nd in all of baseball w/ 625 runs allowed…
How many fewer runs can we allow? I know we could score a LOT more with better offense. Soriano would help increrase the differential more than Zito would.
September 18, 2006 at 2:56 pm
…I didn’t address the fact that there are LF candidates…
I love Sledge and Ben Johnson as OF candidates, but I think Ben profiles best as a 4th OFer and while Sledge could start (heck they could be platoon-mates], I think Branyan + Soriano is better than Sledge/Johnson + [available 3B]…
Does that make sense?
September 18, 2006 at 3:07 pm
Peter Re: #20 I agree, the pads are ok in the pitching department they need bats, I don’t think Soriano will care what pos he plays as long as the money is right (he wanted to play 2nd because the arbitration #’s are better there). I would love to see the pads make a run at Lee, re-sign Roberts and try and trade Giles.
September 18, 2006 at 3:10 pm
How good our rotation is doesn’t have anything to do with whether we should get another ace type starting pitcher. The question is whether someone like Zito is enough better than someone like michael thompson (or a meche). Baseball is a game of run differential, not statistical ranking in a category versus the rest of baseball. Zito - Thompson/Meche > or
September 18, 2006 at 3:12 pm
September 18, 2006 at 3:13 pm
Buster Olney: Jarrett: I think everybody is going to be in for a major surprise in the Zito market — Yankees won’t be interested, Mets very mildly interested (not enough to win the bidding), Red Sox not interested. I think he’ll wind up getting a ton of money from the Padres, who are interested, and can count on the AL to NL exchange rate, plus lure Zito with that huge pitchers’ park.
September 18, 2006 at 3:15 pm
shoot - end of comment on 23/24 keeps cutting out. it was supposed to say (
September 18, 2006 at 3:16 pm
ah hah! its the “less than” sign. So (Less than Soriano-roberts/ben Johnson. i pick zito since who knows what happens to soriano’s power in petco. there. done.)
September 18, 2006 at 3:17 pm
I am concerned that Soriano will get paid for the year he had this year and then perform like he has every year before this. Before this year his highest OBP was .338, which is acceptable when coupled with a .540 SLG, but last year in Texas his OBP was .309, which really is not acceptable for that money, no matter the slugging.
September 18, 2006 at 3:20 pm
Steve, your desire to trade Giles is EXACTLY why I don’t want Lee…
Carlos Lee’s career numbers:
1999: 293/.312/.463
2000: .301/.345/.484
2001: .269/.321/.468
2002: .264/.359/.484
2003: .291/.331/.499
2004: .305/.366/.525
2005: .265/.324/.487
2006: .301/.359/.537
Giles’ has sparkling career numbers (better than Lee’s) that were all amassed in the hitting-friendly NL Central. Lee has played in AL & NL Central (White Sox, Brewers, and now Texas). He does not have an athletic body (I just read today that b/c of his lack of HR in Texas, some are questioning his conditioning) and likely won’t age well. What’s going to happen to his numbers when he plays 100 games in San Diego, Los Angeles, and San Francisco? Soriano on the other hand is putting up sick numbers playing in a division similar to our own…
September 18, 2006 at 3:21 pm
Re: #25
NY and Boston not being intrested in Zito is a smoke screen, the Yankees and Mets are intrested any any and all pitchers.
Even if ti was true the Dodgers and Angels will be in the mix for Zito.
September 18, 2006 at 3:25 pm
Peter any power hitter playing in the NL west will have a decline in numbers, but your right I would not want to sign Lee to anything longer than a 3 year deal, which I dont think he would go for.
September 18, 2006 at 3:34 pm
Sam, that’s what everyone is saying, that likely speculation (as is my talk of Soriano) b/c of Zito’s hometown.
But keep in mind, Billy Beane (that Sandy Alderson-trained GM) famously said that you CAN put a dollar-amount on a player and in fact you had to, and if the bidding went too high, you dropped out…
One more thing, while everyone says the Padres are thinking about Zito, the teams are forbidden from talking about players as future members of their organizations while said players are still under contract. So most of the Zito-talk is a result of writers’ ideas rather than front-office ideas.
I just don’t see the Padres spending big money on a FA pitcher when they already have the best pitching in NL…
September 18, 2006 at 3:37 pm
#32: Peter, smokescreen or not, the Union quoted KT as saying we were in the market for both Zito and Lee.
September 18, 2006 at 3:39 pm
Sam (:27) the Nationals home park is about as HR-adverse as Petco…
September 18, 2006 at 3:39 pm
33 - doh! (don’t I look silly)
I’d rather be in the market for Soriano & Meche
September 18, 2006 at 3:40 pm
KT also siad it on the xx a few times as well, I think the pads are intrested in Zito untill they see the price tag.
September 18, 2006 at 3:43 pm
Peter, I agree with you that we have to find a right hand hitting power bat. I’d like to find it at 3rd base, but that will take a trade, since the FA’s for 3rd base are not particularly exciting. If we’re going to improve by the free agent market, we’ll have to find a bat at a position other than 3rd, meaning a shuffling of the outfield in some fashion, likely left field, since I believe RF, CF, 1st, 2nd, SS, and catcher are all set.
September 18, 2006 at 3:45 pm
To be honest I would rather keep/re-sign Roberts and try to trade Giles and find a big bat for RF.
September 18, 2006 at 3:46 pm
Steve (I would too) how tradable do you think Giles is right now?
September 18, 2006 at 3:47 pm
not very, that pads would have to pay for part of his contract if they wanted anythin in return.
September 18, 2006 at 3:52 pm
I don’t think trading Giles is an option. I assume, although to my knowledge it wasn’t reported, that he has a no-trade clause, due to the San Diego discount he accepted. Second, I think he’s got to be bumping up to the service time period where he’s got enough years that he can’t be traded without consent, even without a no-trade clause.
I think he is still the type of player the organization likes. I’m betting they figure this was a down year and look to LF or 3rd to upgrade.
September 18, 2006 at 3:53 pm
Lamar I think he does have a no trade deal for this season, but not next season, he does become a 10-5 guy half way through next year, so the pads may have a short window to trade him in.
September 18, 2006 at 3:56 pm
This is the claws:
full no-trade clause in 2006, limited no-trade clause in 2007-08 (allowing Giles to block trades to 8 clubs)
September 18, 2006 at 3:59 pm
Steve, you beat me to it. I just looked it up and got the same info as you.
September 18, 2006 at 4:02 pm
I could see the pads making a deal with STL for him but im sure they are one of the 8 teams on giles list.
September 18, 2006 at 4:04 pm
If his no-trade is the same as Nevin’s was, he gets to pick his 8 teams at the start of the year, each year he has the no-trade clause. I don’t know when he gets to select them, but I would guess right after the season is over.
September 18, 2006 at 4:05 pm
yeah, I wonder when the full ends and the limmited begins.
September 18, 2006 at 4:10 pm
I still think that Giles is a guy the Padre front office likes, right or wrong, regardless of the no-trade clause. I’d be really surprised if they trade him away. I also think the front office would be hard pressed to trade away your no. 1 RBI and OBP starter.
September 18, 2006 at 4:14 pm
Another thing I noticed on his contract. If Giles get traded, his salary goes up by $2 million.
September 18, 2006 at 4:19 pm
Lamar #48, thats a good point about the RBI’s
September 18, 2006 at 4:58 pm
Regarding the off-season needs, I would love to see deeper, medium power, high OBP guys. I like the Walker pickup more and more and fits with the team. Keep KT doing his magic with the bullpen.
We have scored 368 runs on the road this season, 5th in the NL. We have scored 295 runs at home, last in the NL. We could use a bit more offense, but our players are OK. Petco is a huge liability. I base this on my analysis here:
http://www.sports-analysis.net.....age30.html
This home/road split on offense has been going on since Petco opened:
Year Road Runs (NL Rank), Home Runs (NL Rank)
2005: 376 (3), 308 (15)
2004: 439 (2), 329 (15)
Want to add ~80 to 100 runs? Don’t go sign Carlos Lee, adjust the fences to make the ballpark as “neutral” as possible. Then you will see us start putting this division away. We have wasted three years with it now. It needs to stop.
Ah, but think of all the benefit we would relinquish to our pitching. Not much benefit to worry about. Here are runs allowed, road/home and rank by year:
Year Road Home
2006: 303 (1) 322 (3)
2005: 408 (13) 318 (3)
2004: 363 (7) 342 (5)
So, we got some lift in 2005, but hardly any in ‘04 and a slight detriment this year. So beloved Petco is costing us a lot. I would love to see some investment there before we keep this trend continuing.
September 18, 2006 at 5:15 pm
20: Park and Williams are not internal options making the league minimum, probably not anywhere close to it. And a couple months of Carrillo, if he’s ready in 2007 at all, is a lot different than 35 starts from Zito beginning with the second game of the season.
September 18, 2006 at 5:27 pm
51: Petco might play a role in keeping the pitching fresh and helping us on the road.
Our offensive problems the last 3 years can be laid mostly at 3b. There’s been nobody good there since Petco opened. Fix that before changing the park again.
September 18, 2006 at 5:30 pm
I doubt the Padres would be crazy enough to go for Soriano… The guy just reeks of clubhouse cancer… remember the battle with the Nats over 2B and LF? Seems to me he would be another Nevin / Klesko deal there… by the time his contract ends, you’d be dreaming of him being injured just to recoup some insurance money. He’s the kind of guy I would love Boston to sign… just to see how he and Manny Ramirez react in a battle of who could outdo the other in weirdness.
Zito? Make a nice fit, but why overpay that much for a Boras guy? Remember all the concerns when 2006 began over the Pads starting rotation? Hasn’t turned out too bad so far… I trust in KT when it comes to pitching…
September 18, 2006 at 5:33 pm
Aramis Ramirez has an opt out of his contract at the end of the year, He’s currently making $11+ million for the next couple of years, so it would cost more than that to get him. But, with his power and rbi history, he’d be the answer to 3rd base, getting us needed right handed power and a run producer and we’d still have money left to sign pitching, re-sign Roberts, etc., assuming, of course, he opts out of his contract with the Cubs. (who, by the way are leading 8-2 over the Phillies. Ramirez has 6 of the 8 rbi’s on 2 HR.)
September 18, 2006 at 5:40 pm
Whoops! Just checked the Philly score after switching over to the start of MNF, now 8-6 Cubs.
September 18, 2006 at 5:44 pm
Ramirez would be a great fit and would fill a huge hole, the pads dont have anyone who will even sniff 100+ RBI this year.
September 18, 2006 at 5:48 pm
We know that Ramirez can hit them out of Petco. He took us deep twice this year. Both to left field.
September 18, 2006 at 5:50 pm
sign ramirez trade for tejada make a run in 07!
September 18, 2006 at 5:53 pm
Another option at 3rd, although not my favorite, would be Nomar. I suspect the Dodgers won’t re-sign him. He’s got consistent injury problems, but might be a 1 - 2 year fill-in until things get better on the FA market or someone can develop in the minors. Besides, if he gets hurt, we always have Branyan. Plus, it gives us a back up for Khalil and his injury problems.
September 18, 2006 at 5:57 pm
Can Nomar still make the throw from 3rd to 1st?
September 18, 2006 at 6:06 pm
That’s another question. I know his range sucks, but he wouldn’t need as much range at 3rd. We looked at him at 2nd in the off season last year, but bailed out when his arm angle didn’t look right, from what I remember. But, I don’t know if it affects his throwing from third.
September 18, 2006 at 6:07 pm
#51: Interesting stuff, Jay. There are two ways to solve this problem. One is, as you suggest, to modify the surroundings. Another would be to employ hitters who aren’t intimidated by the surroundings that already exist.
September 18, 2006 at 8:44 pm
I told you I was e-mailing Rosenthal. He replied:
“Good point on Soriano - I don’t rule [the Padres] out. I’m pretty sure Towers loves him. Soriano is NOT a clubhouse problem, by the way.”