For the second straight game, the final line doesn’t do the Padres’ starting pitcher justice. Chan Ho Park looked terrific Monday night in San Diego’s 4-1 loss to the Diamondbacks. If Park keeps pitching like he did against Arizona, the Padres and their fans should be happy.
In a tight game, there generally are a few key decisions that make a difference. On Monday, there were three:
Green vs Estrada
Fifth inning, one out, runner on third. Park walks Shawn Green on four pitches to face Johnny Estrada, who doubles in two runs. It won’t go down as an intentional walk, but aside from the first pitch, which just missed inside, Park clearly wanted nothing to do with Green.
Despite the fact that it didn’t work, this was good process. Yes, Green is struggling in the early going, but on balance, he is a more dangerous hitter than Estrada. Also, Estrada is a slow-footed catcher who is a good double-play candidate. With a base open, it made sense to put Green on and try to induce Estrada to hit the ball on the ground.
Unfortunately, Park didn’t make a good pitch and Estrada whacked it. Blame this one on execution, not process. And even though that was the only mistake Park made all night, it turned out to be the difference in the game thanks to the pitching of Arizona’s Brandon Webb.
Castilla vs Hudson
Eighth inning, one out, runner on first. This was the frustrating one because it could have been avoided. Orlando Hudson has three sacrifice bunts to his credit in over 1800 big-league plate appearances. All three came in the same season, 2004.
In this at-bat, he checks his swing on the first pitch (looks like he might have gotten a favorable call, but that’s not our concern). On the second, with Jeff DaVanon moving from first, Hudson swings away and fouls it back.
The next pitch is rocketed toward third base and possibly into an inning-ending double play. Inexplicably, however, despite the fact that Hudson historically doesn’t lay down sacrifice bunts and isn’t showing bunt now, Vinny Castilla is playing in, and the ball shoots past him and into the left field corner for a double.
To question the decision to pitch to Estrada over Green is to object based on outcome (i.e., second-guess), but the positioning of Castilla here is all about process. If anything, he should have been guarding the line.
Like Green, Hudson is off to a slow start this season. Also like Green, he has a track record that suggests this could come to a halt at any moment.
Hudson hasn’t bunted in the past and he isn’t bunting now. The Padres should have known this and positioned Castilla in a spot where he had a chance to make the play.
Again, we’re not second-guessing based on outcome; we’re questioning process. Why was Castilla playing in when the situation dictated he be elsewhere?
Roster Management vs Bad Umpiring
Ninth inning, two out, runner on first. There is still a point here, although now that I’ve seen the replay, it’s clear that first base umpire Bill Welke completely blew the call. Damion Easley hits a grounder to deep short that should end the inning. Unfortunately, Geoff Blum’s throw isn’t real strong (although strong enough) and Easley is ruled safe at first.
Even if Welke hadn’t missed the call, the point remains that the Padres don’t have a legitimate backup shortstop. Khalil Greene was given the night off, so Blum had to play short. If Greene is in there, he makes a throw that doesn’t “confuse” the umpire, and Park is out of the game having allowed three runs.
So, on a small scale, this one was pretty well out of anyone’s control. You have to give Greene a day off every now and then so he remains strong throughout the season, which means you occasionally have to stick Blum out there to do something he’s not entirely capable of doing.
In the grander scheme of things — and I know many of you have been saying this as well — there’s a problem with the way the Padres’ roster is constructed (i.e., no backup shortstop). But within the context of a single game, giving Blum a start over Greene makes sense. The issue isn’t so much with choosing to play Blum at shortstop as it is with not having any better options in Greene’s absence.
So What?
In the end, you can hang two of the runs Monday night squarely on Park. The decision to pitch to Estrada rather than Green in the fifth didn’t work out but it was a reasonable approach; Park just didn’t execute this time. Hey, it happens — Estrada is a big-league hitter whose job is to disrupt Park’s plan, and that’s exactly what he did.
The decision to have Castilla play in against Hudson in the eighth didn’t make sense at the time and it cost the Padres a run. Bad process, bad outcome. Even if Hudson makes an out, it’s the wrong move.
Finally, the decision to carry no legitimate backup shortstop indirectly led to the fourth run. Despite a great pick by Adrian Gonzalez, Blum’s one-hopper to first baffled the umpire, who incorrectly ruled Easley safe. On the very next pitch, Webb chopped a ball deep in the hole to short; Blum fielded it but couldn’t get the ball out his glove, allowing the fourth run to score and triggering Park’s departure.
When you’re facing a guy like Webb, there isn’t much margin for error. You need to make good decisions both on and off the field, execute flawlessly, and get a little help from the men in blue. Any deviation, and you’re asking for trouble, which is exactly what the Padres got on Monday night.
Very impressive post, Geoff. I was at the game, and agreed with the decision to pitch around Greene, but I didn’t know Hudson wasn’t a bunter. If Park can keep this up, I mean an ERA below 5 and closer to 4.5, the Padres should have better starting pitching than I expected.
The Precious went 2 for 4 last night, but to no avail. Sorry.
GREAT analysis!
Here’s a *GREAT* article about a great pitcher … “A new wrinkle
Tougher off-season training puts Maddux, 40, in prime condition”
By David Haugh, Chicago Tribune staff reporter …
http://tinyurl.com/hdj9o
(note: bugmenot.com provided me with this username/password that got me into the chicagotribune.com web site … garbagegoeshere@gmail.com / 123456)
Nice breakdown on the plays, Geoff. That’s why you are Da Man.
The Hardball Times covering the history of the Padres. Here’s part II:
http://tinyurl.com/par2z
Enjoy!
Went to the game as well. It was fricking cold.
Geoff, great run down of the game. Being at the game, I didnt understnad half of what was happeneing. CHP pitched well and the Pads can’t hit. I was very frustrated.
Trivia Time. Son asked me about the numbers atop the scoreboard. They are: 6-19-31-35-42. I know 19 is TG. Who are the rest?
Hate to say it, but I think Petco is a tomb. Its cold and windy, the air is heavy as lead and moist. No wonder we can’t hit there. Just a feeling, I’m sure the stats will prove my impressions wrong as they usually do. But still, the organization has to tweak Petco to make it more hitter freindly.
Geoff-
Great post. Fascinating stuff. Has anybody asked Bochy about that decision to play Hudson to bunt (radio, print or otherwise)? I’d be intrigued by his answer.
Didi– great link.
Good ol’ Enzo Hernandez. The answer to a trivia question I stump my baseball buddies on all the time.
Q: Who recorded the least amount of RBIs in a single season (min. 500 PA)?
A. Enzo Hernandez, shortstop extrodinaire, San Diego Padres, 1971!
Here’s WC @ BP’s comment on Chris Young today …
In the All-Bad Karma trade of the off-season, Chris Young is now dealing with his own finger problem. Young has been losing sensation in his pitching thumb, describing it to reporters as either “numb†or “cold.†Neither is good, and both suggest reduced blood flow. He’s been put on medication and his response to it will determine whether or not he’ll need to miss a start. If there’s no positive response, Young will head to the DL.
Replying to the comment from Padre Mike about making Petco more hitter friendly…..why should they do that? You do understand that if you make it more hitter friendly then it becomes more pitcher unfriendly? I’ve never understood why people, and this includes Padre managementand players, say they need to make the park more hitter friendly. Basically, when players like Nevin and Klesko, and Kevin Towers say this, they are also saying “Screw the pitchers.” That’s somewhat understandable for a batter but why would Towers say that? The best player on the team is Jake Peavy so wouldn’t you want to make the stadium (at least for his career) as beneficial to him as possible? And this leaves out the whole thing on whether or not teams in pitchers parks have been more successful than those in hitters parks. It seems that a lot of people think that offense sells tickets (and this unfortunately seems to include Padre management) when in reality winning sells tickets.
This is just too classic not to share … from KG @ BP …
Jose Reyes’ appointment with destiny
Until he did not start Sunday night’s game in San Diego, he was on a streak that saw him make at least three outs in 13 consecutive games. This is nothing like a record, but it shows that Reyes has not lost his out-making touch. Last year, he tied for the third-most outs in a single season:
Top 10 Outmakers of the 20th & 21st Centuries
551: Omar Moreno, Pittsburgh (1980)
530: Horace Clarke, New York Yankees (1970)
529: Jose Reyes, New York Mets (2005)
529: Omar Moreno, Pittsburgh (1982)
529: Sandy Alomar, California (1971)
528: Omar Moreno, Pittsburgh (1979)
528: Sandy Alomar, California (1970)
526: Juan Samuel, Philadelphia (1984)
525: Alfredo Griffin, Toronto (1980)
521: Bobby Richardson, New York Yankees (1964)
521: Roger Metzger, Houston (1972)
This season, Reyes has an outside shot of bettering them all, even the grand imperial high-exalted most excellent master himself: Omar Moreno. A number of things have to align just so for Reyes to make this happen. His manager,Willie Randolph, must continue to ignore all appeals to reason and bat him leadoff. He has to start every day and refrain from walking–something he hasn’t had a problem with in the past. He himself has to maintain a batting average in the .240 range. The Mets need to score enough runs so that he’s getting five at bats rather than four (or play a lot of extra inning games). Reyes is a high-percentage base stealer, something Moreno was not, so he’s not going to generate many outs that way. At this moment, projecting from what Reyes has done in the first 19 games, he would make 554 outs in 2006, a new all-time record. (Yes, it’s a small sample size, but it’s one that does not run counter to past performance.)
There really isn’t a lot of play there, so it seems unlikely he’ll achieve outmaking immortality in 2006. A more likely eventuality is that he betters last year’s total but falls short of Moreno’s grandeur. In other words: look out Horace Clarke!
NickG – are you as surprised as me that Enzo’s not on this list?
I agree. I don’t think the Padres need to do anything to make Petco “more hitter friendly”. It seems the other teams have no trouble hitting there, and it seems the Padres are trying to build the team with line drive, gap type hitters to take advantage of the size of the park. Probably didn’t help your experience last night that it was cloudy and cold last night. That’s the risk of the early season at Petco….later in the year the weather is much warmer.
As for the other question..
6 is Steve Garvey, 19 Tony Gwynn, 31 Dave Winfield, 35 Randy Jones, and 42 is Jackie Robinson.
Is it the responsibility of Bochy or is the responsibility of the bench coach to properly set up the defense for each batter? Personally, I thought it was the bench coach’s job, but I could very well be wrong about that
The Hammer with HR #2 today for Portland (after getting #1 last night) … http://tinyurl.com/s8au6 … Etherton didn’t get out of the 5th …
I like Petco just fine. A bit cold earlier in the season but very nice in the summer. I think it’s just the team that’s not hitting as the opponents have had not trouble hitting here. For instance, the Rockies series. Or the Cubs series from the first season or even the Devil Rays series in past seasons.
I’m sorry that PM had a bad experience with the weather here. As for the game, there’ll be better hitting ones coming.
Go Padres! And take that #6 off the wall, please.
Thanks for the numbers Mark O. I should have known them. The arguement that other teams hit in Petco is compelling. What makes P a pitchers park? Its big and hard to hit a home run in, the ball doesn’t carry. Be interesting to compare line drive hitting teams v HR hitting teams at P. Sure its already been done. A large park would favor line drive hitters because there is more space with the same number of fielders. I wonder too if there is something in the pitcher/batter exchange at P that gives the pitcher an edge. Batter’s eye, mound hieght, heavy air, reputation? For that matter, what makes a hitter hit line drives? IOWs, there a ton of dynamics at work at petco that may foavor either batter or pitcher. Worth studying.
Number six is not your Padre, Didi?
I’m with Didi … #6 has got to go! I thought GY and/or his Channel 4 buddies might do something to get that ball rolling … but, alas, it’s a mossy stone … I guess I could write a letter to the Padres … OK, that’s how I’ll know if/when I’m serious (as opposed to just a whiner)