“A player’s true level of ability remains unknown and unknowable so long as he is not given the opportunity to prove it.”
Obvious, perhaps, but important. Without proof we are reduced to religious arguments: Belief based on MLEs, scouting reports, or other factors. Non-believers cite lack of indisputable evidence: “Yes, but MLEs are just equivalencies — they don’t substitute for actual big-league production” or “I’ll grant you that he’s got five tools but what good are they if he can’t lay off breaking balls in the dirt?”
Even the language takes on religious overtones. A player gains a cult following. People demand that he be set free. We saw this in San Diego in 2005 with Xavier Nady. Many fans (myself included) were vocal in their desire to see Nady get a chance to play and show what he could do. Others were equally vocal in their doubts about his ability. Both sides had justifiable reasons for their belief, but nobody could prove anything. We still can’t.
Years ago, Ruben Rivera was given ample opportunity to prove himself at the big-league level, and despite an overwhelming abundance of tools, the only thing Rivera succeeded in proving is that, without a doubt, he is not a big-league ballplayer. He had the chance to demonstrate his true level of ability, and that is precisely what he did.
On the flip side, Jake Peavy took the same exact opportunity and proved himself to be one of the elite pitchers in the game. As with Rivera, there was a good deal of evidence in the minor-league numbers and scouting reports to suggest that success would be a likely outcome. The difference, of course, is that Peavy delivered on his promise.
What Rivera and Peavy share in common, however, is that they were given the opportunity to prove — one way or another — their true level of ability. This is very different from the case of Nady or that of former Padres first baseman Roberto Petagine, in whose honor I have named this principle.
Petagine, you will recall, compiled monstrous numbers at the minor-league level and gained a cult following of believers who insisted (without actually knowing) that he would outperform the likes of, say, J.T. Snow if given the opportunity. Petagine never got that chance but continued to dominate the minor leagues before embarking on a successful career in Japan, which only served to fuel the fire of his believers.
On the other hand, there were those who insisted that Petagine was nothing more than a “Quadruple-A” caliber player: too good for the minors, not good enough for the big leagues. But again, due to his lack of opportunity, these folks were expressing belief based on a combination of what they knew and what they thought they knew.
The truth, as often is the case, lay not at either end of the spectrum but rather toward the middle. What we knew with certainty about Petagine is that he had absolutely mastered the minor leagues and that he hadn’t done much at the big-league level in samples too small to carry much meaning.
Both sides could cite evidence to support their belief of Petagine’s true level of ability, but without his being given the opportunity to demonstrate his capablilities in the only forum that mattered (i.e., the Show), nobody could prove anything.
And thus any discussion of Petagine’s ability neccessarily becomes a religious debate — a question of faith, of belief. By extension, so do discussions of other players who fit the same profile — big minor-league numbers, insufficient big-league opportunity. Which leads us back to this:
“A player’s true level of ability remains unknown and unknowable so long as he is not given the opportunity to prove it.”
Something to contemplate the next time you’re sitting around with strangers, listening to Pink Floyd at 3 in the morning. Or who knows, maybe it will be Steely Dan.
Ruben was all tools and no heart and little head.
There really should be a measure of 7 tools, the first five we know…hitting, hitting with power, speed, strong arm, good glove. But lets add two: a good head and a strong heart.
Funny, but it seems football and hockey take these two extra factors more seriously then baseball. Are there any established ball players without a good head and heart? Well, Barry Bonds is one, but his talent is so unique that there is no need for the H and H.
Come to think of it, there are plenty of guys with no head or heart in the game. That makes HH the X-factor then. Sometimes you need it, a la Rivera, sometimes you don’t, a la Bonds.
“There really should be a measure of 7 tools, the first five we know…hitting, hitting with power, speed, strong arm, good glove. But lets add two: a good head and a strong heart.”
Very good point, head and heart can compensate for the first 5, see David Eckstine.
Good article, Geoff. Thanks.
Where is the namesake of this article playing now?
Remember, George Arias? The AAAA 3B that was going to be Cammy’s heir and couldn’t hold down the job long enough to perform. His time was short with the Padres.
I think most MLB players don’t have the 5 tools equally and have to work hard at what they do to remain in the Show. Maybe that’s why plenty of 5-tools talents fizzled.
Thanks, Didi. Last I checked, Petagine was with the Boston Red Sox.
Yup, Roberto Petagine is still “only” 34 … did well for AAA Pawtucket last year and got 32 ABs for the BoSox …
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/P/roberto-petagine.shtml
Don’t mistake Bonds’ narcissism for stupidity. He’s got as much or more baseball smarts as anyone playing.
I dont see how you can equate Nady with Petagrine. Nady has been given almost 800 major league ab’s to prove himself. He has seemingly established himself as a .750ops corner outfielder/firstbaseman.
the Padres are like a number of other teams in that they seemingly refuse to try a youngster at a postion on a regular basis unless he shows good right away. Even after winning the division is near impossible, we continue to play the veterans(that are not in the long range plans) instead of finding out what the prospects can do.
Petagine was DFA’ed by the Sox last week to make room for Alex Gonzalez.
It is puzzling why some guys never seem to get a shot, yet others will be handed a job from day one. I still think that in the case of Nady the Padres feel he has some holes in his swing that can be exploited by certain types of pitcher. He may overcome that some day but odds are he won’t so management felt it was better to get a known quantity in return while they still could.
As for Petagine, I’ve read that he’s a very poor fielder, he’s slow, doesn’t have major league power, etc. Another factor is that a contending team like the Red Sox is likely to pick up an older guy like Petagine as insurance, the only way he’s getting a shot is if all other options fail. A rebuilding team probably isn’t going to take on a guy like that and give him an everyday job, simply because he’s too old.
Another AAAA guy was Jose Fernandez, who, iirc, was once Anaheim’s minor league player of the year. He washed out of MLB, went to Korea, tore it up, then moved to the Chiba Lotte Marines and then Seibu and killed there, too. He is now with Rakuten beginning this season.
Fernandez, though, had one tool. He could hit in the minors. He is a mediocre fielder and isn’t particularly fast.
As for Petagine, his knees are suspect. He has had them operated on twice the last three or four years and can no longer viably play the outfield.
So it is first base or nothing for him.
The Sox DFA’d Petagine to make room on the 40 man for Alex Gonzalez but are supposedly trying to resign him to a minor league deal with a camp invite.
As a Sox and Petagine fan, I hope they keep him. If Lowell repeats last year (good against LHP, terrible against RHP), they should use a 3 man platoon arrangement, with Petagine playing 1st against RHP and Lowell playing 3rd against LHP, with Youk manning the empty slot. Signing Snow hurt Petagine’s opportunity.
Good article.
Hank: I’m not equating Nady with Petagine. Certainly Nady isn’t as extreme an example as Petagine in terms of not getting a shot at a full-time gig. However, the principle remains the same.
LM, Anthony, Craig: Thanks for the info on Petagine’s current status.
Gary: I remember Jose Fernandez. He posted some gaudy number in the minor leagues:
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/F/jose-fernandez.shtml
And he played with several other Quad-A types such as Izzy Alcantara, Hiram Bocachica, Hensley Meulens, etc.
That’s too bad about those Quad players.
They have so cool of names.
Alcantara, Bocachica, maybe not Meulens, but Petagine is good, right?
Interesting read on 3-0 count:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/three-and-oh/
Didi – thanks for the link … ’twas interesting!
Back to USD … check out this comment from a Q&A @ BA …
Q: Blake Guyer from Madison, WI asks:
If the Fab 50 freshman were redone and put out today would Jordan Danks still be number one? What would the top ten look like?
A: Will Kimmey: There’s a great chance he would, because that list, like the lists for sophomores, juniors and seniors, are based on ultimate ceiling and draft potential. So, while Danks is hitting .174 with nine strikeouts, he’s still a great future pro. As for freshmen who have impressed early, you’ve got to put San Diego’s Josh Romanski right near the top. He’s hitting .391 and has two saves.
… and one followup comment on Josh Romanski … if the name rings a bell, it might be because the Padres drafted him last year … 15th round …
http://www.baseballamerica.com/draftdb/2005xteam.php?team=SD
Without really wanting to derail this into a Bonds thread… anybody that says that Bonds lacks either a good head for baseball or a good heart for baseball hasn’t heard a damn thing that has come out of Bonds’ mouth the last ten years.
Bonds visibly cares more about baseball and playing baseball to the absolute utter limit of his abilities than about anything else in the entire world, up to and including his family, his children, his romantic life, his health, and his reputation. Most people with that kind of driving focus in life are intolerable narrcisists, and Bonds is a good example of the breed.
Leaving aside what kind of an a-hole gets a job posting links like this (the National Do-Not Call List has upped unemployment among the ranks of high school dropouts), what’s the practical effect? Is this a way to trick Google’s “footenote” search software? Or just a way to brass people off?
TW: It’s worse than you think. It’s not just someone leaving links, it’s a script that does it automatically for them. As for the practical effect, Wikipedia touches on it in their entry on blog spam:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blog_spam
What a waste of everyone’s time.
Also, I’ve seen Romanski a couple times now and he’s a stud. He’s a little on the small side but the guy is a good athlete who can play ball.
George Arias became a star in Japan (after ’99 he played 5 seasons at 1B and 3B, averaging 32 HR). In ’03 Arias led the Hanshin Tigers to the Japan Leagues title with 38 dingers in just 124 G. Now he’s trying to break back into MLB with the Nationals with a minor-league contract, and I wish him luck…