I’m back in SD, to the stresses of everyday life. And I’m back also to whining about the Dave Roberts trade.

But before I get started, here’s a note from another dissatisfied customer, E.B.:

Not sure if you remember me. I emailed you once last year sending you a chart comparing a team’s ERA to the catchers ERA of that team’s primary catcher. Gary Bennett had the biggest difference. Not that it really meant all that much but this trade really has me hacked off.

I just posted an extended comment about the Payton deal that was mostly cutoff. Unfortunately, here is the best point of it all.

Payton 2004: .260/.326/.367
Roberts career: .259/.335/.344

So basically, Payton had as bad a year as he could have had in 2004 and it was an average year for Roberts.

Also, Payton had a down year in 1999, his 2nd year in the majors.

1998: .318/.348/.364
1999: .250/.333/.375
2000: .291/.331/.447

But he turned it around in 2000. Isn’t it at least feasible to think that this season was a year where Payton had to get used to being out of Colorado full time and was in a huge pitchers park. Given a year to adjust, you’d think he would have to come back next year. If nothing else, he would be better than in 2004 and therefore would be better than Roberts in an average year.

Also, if this trade is trying to clear more of a way for Nady to get AB’s, can you realistically see Nady playing center in Petco when they guy that was just dealt supposedly didn’t have the range to cover it? Just a completely ridiculous trade from a Padres point of view. As I know I’ll be at every home game in 2005, I’m not looking forward to the Dave Roberts experience.

Before we get to Payton, a quick footnote on Bennett and CERA: Last year Bennett played with the Brewers. Milwaukee’s regular catcher was Chad Moeller, who led the NL with a 3.67 CERA. In a little over half the innings, Bennett checked in at 5.12.

As for E.B.’s points about the recent trade, I agree that there is no upside here. Payton is one of my early favorites for fantasy sleeper this year. Even if he never hits 28 homers in a season again, it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him return to, say, 2000 form.

Payton will outperform Roberts in 2005. And thanks to the mechanics of the deal, Roberts doesn’t cost any less. So what’s the point? Why downgrade at a position without at least clearing some payroll to spend elsewhere?

And this brings me to my next point. It’s not just about Roberts, it’s about allocation of resources. If the Padres were intent on moving some assets, then why didn’t they use those to address areas of greater concern? Pitching depth is one that immediately leaps to mind. I could at least understand the logic behind trading Payton and company to add, say, a fourth starter or another veteran reliever.

But if all the Pads got out of it is a fast outfielder who doesn’t provide much offense, then why didn’t they fill the "void" from within? If they wanted to go this route (and I’m by no means advocating that they should), then what’s wrong with Freddy Guzman or even Kerry Robinson? No, I don’t believe that they are the answer any more than Roberts is, but at least they don’t cost anything above and beyond what they’re already being paid.

Here is the general decision-making process that presumably occurred:

1. the Padres need a fast leadoff man
2. there is nobody within the organization who fits that description
3. the Padres must surrender assets to acquire such a leadoff man

I mildly disagree with the first point, but I’m willing to go along with it. The second two are what bother me. Here’s why.

First, we look at ZiPS projections:

               BA  OBP  SLG BB SO SB CS
Guzman,Fr    .248 .328 .305 53 90 56 37
Roberts,Da   .274 .354 .370 43 44 35 10
Robinson,Ke  .279 .325 .343 16 27 17 13

Next up, Bill James Handbook 2005:

               BA  OBP  SLG BB SO SB CS
Guzman,Fr    .261 .328 .330 33 59 46  7
Roberts,Da   .257 .336 .335 32 32 27  6
Robinson,Ke  .271 .317 .347  8 12 12  2

And Guzman’s major league equivalencies (as derived by Baseball Prospectus) for Double-A and Triple-A:

           BA  OBP  SLG BB SO SB CS
Mob  AA  .262 .327 .355 13 26  9  3
Por AAA  .272 .342 .364 27 43 33  9

I think we can all agree that Robinson isn’t a big-league starting outfielder, so it was a good decision not to ask him to fill that role. You could argue that Guzman isn’t ready yet, and you might have a point. He’s only had two-thirds of a season at Triple-A and he’s still inexperienced at playing the outfield.

The numbers suggest that given the chance, Guzman wouldn’t do any worse than Roberts. Still, you never know with young players, so I can even see hedging with a stopgap while Guzman is polishing his skills at Triple-A. But why pay solution prices for a stopgap?

Again, not that I condone even going down this path, but if the Pads were bent on getting a fast outfielder with questionable value, couldn’t they have grabbed a presumably cheap free agent such as Doug Glanville, Tom Goodwin, Quinton McCracken, or So Taguchi that would have allowed them to use other potentially valuable resources to acquire more immediate help elsewhere?

As for Nady, it’s looking like his day will never come in San Diego, and that is a shame. The guy can play.

The one good thing I can see coming out of all this is that Sean Burroughs moves back down in the lineup, where the hope is that he’ll concentrate less on slapping the ball past the shortstop and more on driving it into the spacious Petco power alleys. I say this every year, but I have a good feeling about Burroughs in the upcoming season.