Before we get started talking about Burroughs, I need to mention a couple things:

• Jon Weisman over at Dodger Thoughts has invited folks around the baseball blogosphere to comment on his team. I grew up a Dodger fan, so I didn’t really have anything mean to say; however, I did thank them for contributing to the Giants’ demise.
• Final win shares have been posted over at Bryan Donovan’s rockin’ site. What do the following guys have in common: Barry Bonds, Albert Pujols, Scott Rolen, Adrian Beltre, Bobby Abreu, Jim Edmonds, J.D. Drew. They are the only players in MLB this year to finish with more win shares than Mark Loretta.

On to our topic of the day…

One question I’ve been asked a lot this year is, “What’s up with Sean Burroughs? Wasn’t he supposed to be developing power? Is that ever going to happen, or is he just going to keep slapping the ball to left field?”

It is a good question. First, let me say that I hope he develops power. At the very least, he needs to turn on pitches every now and then to keep the defense honest. Watching Burroughs hit soft liners down the line in left that get caught with ease isn’t a lot of fun. If he could drive the ball with authority to right and right-center (as he started to do at the end of the 2003 season), he’d get more of the opposite field shots to fall. Interestingly, an increase in Burroughs’ power could actually lead to an increase in his batting average as well. There really is no downside to his learning to use the entire field and hit the ball with more authority. Home runs? Maybe, maybe not. But there’s no reason a guy like Burroughs shouldn’t be hitting 40+ doubles a year, especially with the spacious outfield of Petco Park. I’m hoping that the regression in power development this year is at least partly due to his placement at the top of the order, where maybe he downplayed the need to hit for power too much. Speculation on my part, but that is the hope. Burroughs still is a strong kid, and I think he’s capable of more than what he’s shown. How much more remains to be seen.

Okay, enough philosophy. How about some comps? I didn’t set up exact criteria for this one, but the general idea was to find hitters who showed only modest power in their first full big-league season and who regressed in their second. The good news is that most of these guys bounced back and had strong follow-up seasons and/or careers.

First, our hero:

Age  AB   BA  OBP  SLG BB/PA  ISO XB/H
 22 517 .286 .352 .402  .078 .116 .270
 23 523 .298 .348 .365  .056 .067 .179

(Note, we’re using the simplified BB/(BB+AB) for BB/PA.)

And now some folks who had similar starts to their careers:

Edgardo Alfonzo
Age  AB   BA  OBP  SLG BB/PA  ISO XB/H
 21 335 .278 .301 .382  .035 .104 .237
 22 368 .261 .304 .345  .064 .084 .219
 23 518 .315 .391 .432  .108 .118 .239

Power bounced back a little in third year, other aspects of game improved dramatically. Continued power development following year, peaking at .324/.425/.542 at age 26. Elite offensive infielder before injuries hit.

Craig Biggio
Age  AB   BA  OBP  SLG BB/PA  ISO XB/H
 23 443 .257 .336 .402  .100 .144 .316
 24 555 .276 .342 .348  .087 .072 .196
 25 546 .295 .358 .374  .088 .079 .193

Showed a good deal more power than Burroughs in his first full season. Regressed the following season and held at roughly that level for two more years before busting out with .287/.373/.474 at age 27. Peaked at .309/.415/.501, at age 31. Generally good for 15-20 homers and 35+ doubles in his prime and beyond.

Carlos Febles
Age  AB   BA  OBP  SLG BB/PA  ISO XB/H
 23 453 .256 .336 .411  .094 .155 .353
 24 339 .257 .345 .316  .096 .059 .172
 25 292 .236 .291 .363  .070 .127 .275

Recovered some power in third year, but the rest of his game deteriorated. Injuries and dwindling offensive performance likely mean that his rookie season was his peak.

Julio Franco
Age  AB   BA  OBP  SLG BB/PA  ISO XB/H
 24 560 .273 .306 .388  .046 .114 .261
 25 658 .286 .331 .348  .061 .062 .160
 26 636 .288 .343 .381  .078 .093 .235

Drop in power from first to second season was very similar to that of Burroughs, and Franco was, um, two years older. Yeah, that’s it. Two years. Recovered some power in his third season, went on to have a fine career as a high average hitter with occasional power. Peaked at .319/.406/.510, at age 35ish.

Carlos Guillen
Age  AB   BA  OBP  SLG BB/PA  ISO XB/H
 24 288 .257 .324 .396  .089 .139 .324
 25 456 .259 .333 .355  .104 .096 .254
 26 475 .261 .326 .394  .088 .133 .315

Injuries and Safeco Field depressed his numbers early on, before he blossomed at age 27 with a .318/.379/.542 season.

Julio Lugo
Age  AB   BA  OBP  SLG BB/PA  ISO XB/H
 24 420 .283 .346 .431  .081 .148 .311
 25 513 .263 .326 .372  .082 .109 .244
 26 322 .261 .322 .388  .080 .127 .286

Best season was rookie season. Hit 40 doubles this year, at age 28. Jury is still out on Lugo.

Rafael Palmeiro
Age  AB   BA  OBP  SLG BB/PA  ISO XB/H
 23 580 .307 .349 .436  .061 .129 .303
 24 559 .275 .354 .374  .101 .098 .227
 25 598 .319 .361 .468  .063 .149 .288

Likely Hall of Famer. It is unreasonable to expect anyone to develop along these lines. First basemen who post a 728 OPS at age 24 simply don’t go on to hit 549 home runs. Peaked at .324/.420/.630, at age 34.

Shannon Stewart
Age  AB   BA  OBP  SLG BB/PA  ISO XB/H
 24 516 .279 .377 .417  .115 .138 .306
 25 608 .304 .371 .411  .088 .107 .222
 26 583 .319 .363 .518  .060 .199 .371

Showed more power than Burroughs initially, rebounded strong in third season, his best so far. Consistent .300 hitter with 35+ doubles and double-digit homers.

B.J. Surhoff
Age  AB   BA  OBP  SLG BB/PA  ISO XB/H
 22 395 .299 .350 .423  .084 .124 .271
 23 493 .245 .292 .318  .059 .073 .215
 24 436 .248 .287 .339  .054 .092 .241

Didn’t regain his power stroke until after moving out from behind the plate full time. Peaked at .308/.347/.492, at age 34. Consistent .280+ hitter with 30+ doubles and 15+ homers. Never walked 50 times in a single season.

And going a little old school:

Ryne Sandberg
Age  AB   BA  OBP  SLG BB/PA  ISO XB/H
 22 635 .271 .312 .372  .054 .101 .262
 23 633 .261 .316 .351  .075 .090 .224
 24 636 .314 .367 .520  .076 .206 .370

Experienced only a slight drop in power from his first year to his second. Bounced back in a big way the following season. Peaked at .306/.354/.559, at age 30. Consistent .290+ hitter with 25-30 doubles and home runs.

Dave Martinez
Age  AB   BA  OBP  SLG BB/PA  ISO XB/H
 22 459 .292 .372 .418  .110 .126 .254
 23 447 .255 .313 .351  .078 .096 .219
 24 361 .274 .324 .382  .070 .108 .263

Weird career. A 790 OPS at age 22 from a center fielder doesn’t suggest a future fourth outfielder. On the other hand, Martinez did end up with 1599 career hits, so it’s hard to be too critical. Peaked at .318/.393/.468, at age 31.

So what do we take home from all of this? A few things:

• It’s way too soon to give up on Burroughs
• Some guys don’t really get it going until their 30s
• Injuries happen and can have a devastating effect on a career

I guess none of this is terribly revealing, but it should give us some hope that Burroughs will get things together. As always, the questions are to what level and how quickly. The good news is that of the guys we looked at, only Febles really tanked. Lugo is in a holding pattern, and cats like Franco and Surhoff didn’t get dangerous till their 30s. Palmeiro’s development is freakish. I suppose the most realistic we can be in our optimism is to hope that Burroughs develops along the lines of Alfonzo, Biggio, and Sandberg. It’s admittedly difficult to imagine Burroughs having that type of career based on what he’s done to this point, but remember that all of those guys were once in the same position. There are no guarantees, but it’s comforting to see that there at least are some reasonable analogs for Burroughs who went on to have fine big-league careers.