Frustrating homestand. Longest of the year, and the Pads finish 5-8. This is not how contenders play in August. Of course, if the Padres had been able to take care of business earlier in the year, this might not be such a problem. But that is water under the well-trodden bridge.

After taking three of four from the Giants, the Pads proceeded to drop seven of the next nine at home. Bad execution? Bad luck? A little of each. I could cite examples from throughout the past week, but I think Sunday’s loss against the Pirates serves just fine. Consider:

• Rich Aurilia leads off the bottom of the fourth with a triple and is thrown out attempting to score on a fly ball to right off the bat of Brian Buchanan. Pittsburgh’s Rob Mackowiak has to make a perfect throw, and he does. Pads fail to score.
• In the eighth, Phil Nevin and Aurilia hit back-to-back deep fly balls off Brian Meadows. Nevin’s hits off the wall in right, just wide of the porch. A few feet to the right and it’s a homer. Instead, it’s a double. Aurilia then takes Tike Redman to the wall in left-center to end the inning. Again, no runs.
• In the ninth, after Jose Mesa retires the first two batters, Miguel Ojeda singles sharply to left on the 10th pitch of his at-bat. This after falling behind 0-2 in the count. Pinch-hitter Terrence Long follows with a first-pitch single, bringing Khalil Greene to the plate representing the winning run. Greene hits a lazy fly ball to right to end the game.

Sunday’s effort was pretty representative of the entire homestand. Seven of the eight losses were by three runs or fewer. The Padres had a chance to win just about every game. They were outscored by their opponents, 57-56. In a short span anything can happen, but normally you’d expect a team to break even with run totals like that. Unfortunately, right now the Padres are not executing real well and they’ve caught some bad breaks.

Obviously the timing isn’t good. And luck is a funny thing. Good teams seem to find a way to create good luck. More specifically, good execution often leads to good luck. Evidence? Only anectodal. Take the Pads’ final game at Yankee Stadium this year for example (please). The Yankees execute a solid approach against Trevor Hoffman with two out in the ninth to tie the game and then win it in extra innings. Did Hoffman lose the plate? Sure, he did. But the Yankee hitters took advantage of his poor location in the most extreme way possible. Did the Yankees get lucky? In a sense, they did. They got lucky that Hoffman didn’t have his usual stellar control. But in another sense, they executed well by laying off the bad stuff and hammering the fat stuff.

The Dodgers right now are getting "lucky" with an annoying regularity. They are outexecuting their opponents and putting themselves in a position to win. And when the opportunity arises, they pounce. The Padres have been doing the first part, keeping themselves in ballgames, all year. But pouncing on opportunities? That comes and goes. They haven’t been consistent in taking advantage of situations, which is why (to give an extreme simplification of things) they now find themselves on the outside of the playoff picture looking in.

This is not to suggest that the Padres can’t get back into the hunt. There’s still plenty of time (although that sentiment grows less true with each passing day). It’s just that right now they’re not doing the things that contenders do.

One fascinating aspect of all this is how quickly expectations change. The Padres are now 59-52, 6 1/2 games out of first place. Through 111 games last year, they were 43-68 and long out of contention. The Friars are a full 16 games ahead of where they were in 2003. Put another way, they could lose (hypothetically; please don’t hunt me down if this happens) 45 of their final 51 games and still finish with a better record than last year.

Bottom line? We’ve seen what the Padres are capable of doing. At their best, they are a playoff contender. Bear in mind that Brian Giles is having a down year, Jay Payton has been a complete flop, and Miguel Ojeda has more homers than Ryan Klesko. Other than Mark Loretta and Phil Nevin, there hasn’t been any consistency in the lineup. Rod Beck has been a non-factor. The fifth starter’s job for most of the year was held by a guy with an ERA well over 5.00. The Padres haven’t been firing on all cylinders at any point this season and they’ve managed to stay close into August. They are a reasonably young squad. Or more accurately, they have some good young players around whom to build. This may or may not be the year, but for the first time in a long time, Padre fans have to believe there is hope in the near future. If the Pads aren’t quite a contender just yet, they have at least made significant strides in that direction this year. That fact alone should make us happy.

But of course, it doesn’t.