Apologies to J.D. Salinger for the headline, but I couldn’t resist. Neither, apparently, could the Padres, who have inked soon-to-be 41-year-old left-hander David Wells to be–wait for it–the #1 starter in the rotation this year. According to reports, he’s guaranteed $1.5M, with incentives possibly pushing it as high as $7M.

Here is his ZiPS projection for 2004:

 IP  H  HR BB  SO  ERA
193 220 22 32  99 4.48
193 204 18 35 107 3.87

The top row is Wells’ projection before the trade, the bottom his new numbers. I’m a little surprised to see such a large difference in projected hits allowed and ERA as a result of his moving from Yankee Stadium to Petco (penthouse to doghouse?). The good news, I suppose, is that Wells’ ERA has been above league-average every season since 1997 (ERA+ ranging from 102 to 128 in that period).

The bad news is just about everything else. Wells turns 41 years old in May. He’s coming off back surgery. He’s a Type A free agent, so the Pads lose a second-round draft pick in signing him (ironically, Wells himself was a second-round pick back in the day). He’s not a #1 starter, in any sense of the term.

This is the savior? This is the man to lead the Padres’ young rotation? This is a 41-year-old guy with a good appetite and a bad back. I don’t get it. This was the off-season things were supposed to happen. There were a few nice moves made. The deal with the A’s wasn’t great but it filled a gaping hole. Kevin Towers built a potentially very solid bullpen on the cheap. But right now it looks like the Pads are planning to go into the season without a true center fielder and without a true #1 starter. One or the other I could stomach. But I thought one of the points of assembling such an inexpensive bullpen was that it would help free up money for a Mike Cameron or a Greg Maddux. No offense, but Eugene Kingsale and David Wells isn’t an acceptable substitute.

I’m actually not against the signing of Wells in vacuo. He led the AL in pitches per batter last year at 3.39 (Maddux led the NL at 3.26), and if the young Padre hurlers could stand to learn anything, it’s how to be more efficient. Wells also is fifth among active pitchers with 750 or more innings in walks per nine innings at 1.99 (Maddux is fourth at 1.90). And he did walk an astonishing 20 batters in 213 innings last year. So if that aspect of his game can rub off on the kids, maybe that’s not a bad thing.

But the surrounding circumstances make this one a little difficult to swallow. The fans and media have been primed for a #1 starter this off-season, particularly Maddux, who now is deemed too expensive. Instead, we get Valdes and Sterling Hitchcock to fill the back of the rotation, and Wells is supposed to be the final piece in the puzzle? Sorry, I don’t buy it. If the Pads had made this move last month, before they’d started signing low-risk, low-reward pitchers for the back end of the rotation, I’d have loved it. Wells would have been a terrific #3 or #4 guy on this ballclub. His signing then would have shown that the Padres were serious and that maybe this was a prelude to bigger things to come. But to ink him now, as an alternative to the #1 starter we were all led to believe would land here, is a curious move for a variety of reasons.

First, the Padres have money. They’re not spending it, but they have it. Why else advertise the fact that you intend to be players in the off-season before moving into Petco? Why else all the talk about Cameron, Maddux, and a slew of other free agents? Wells has the name, but in my mind, the biggest signing so far is Akinori Otsuka. With all due respect to Otsuka, about whom I have a very good feeling, if he’s your big free agent signing, you aren’t a player.

Second, the Padres don’t have a bevy of talented young pitchers coming up through the system like they did a few years ago. When Wells hangs ‘em up after the season (assuming his back and other body parts hold up that long), who is going to step in to replace him? Sign Maddux to a 2- or 3-year pact, and you don’t need to ask that question. The only thing I can figure is that Towers doesn’t think this is the year for the Padres and he’s punting again, saving his money for the #1 pick in the June draft and/or members of the 2004-05 free agent class. But how much longer is this cycle going to persist? We were told that this winter would be different, that the Padres would make some moves. And we watched as player after player signed elsewhere, and the pool of available talent slowly dried up. Jay Payton is still available and by most accounts can play a passable center field. Not that he’s great, but even just as a gesture?

The other problem I have, beyond the dubious message Wells’ signing sends to Padre fans, is what this says to their players. This team and organization, which despite outward appearances have been making a lot of good progress over the past few years, are in serious danger of losing credibility. Funny how nobody pays attention to the Pads until they pick up an ex-Yankee. Now we’ve got opinions galore. Check these out:

From Baseball Musings:

The Padres expect Wells to lead their rotation, which says to me they don’t think much of their starters. Still, local man makes good, and he’ll be a draw at the new stadium.

And from Mike’s Baseball Rants:

The deal makes no sense for the floundering Padres, who cannot hope to finish any higher than third in 2004, except for the fact that they are moving into a new stadium and perhaps think they can draw a few extra fans with Wells’ name.

Both of these guys, without knowing much about the Pads, reached the same conclusion: that the signing doesn’t make much sense for the club beyond the additional seats he may fill. It’s a valid conclusion, although if Padre brass truly believes that signing a 41-year-old pitcher with a bad back is going to help the bottom line, I think they’re in for a rude surprise. We’ve waited a long time, some of us more patiently than others. And now, when it is supposed to be our turn, we get shortchanged again. This is supposed to be a draw at Petco? I don’t think so. There are many establishments in town that are likely to benefit from Wells’ arrival here, but I don’t believe Petco Park will be one of them.

The real shame of it is, this latest bout of inactivity is undermining and overshadowing a lot of positive work that has been done in laying down the foundation over the past few years. And its reinforcing a lot of the negative feelings fans have toward the organization’s commitment to winning. If Wells is the final piece in the puzzle, there are going to be a lot of folks who ignore the Brian Giles acquisition, the development of Sean Burroughs, and the good young arms. Instead they’ll just stand there staring at the puzzle, wondering whether it really is finished and if so, what the heck it is supposed to be.

Here is more coverage of the Wells signing. It’s more than we’re used to around these parts because he was a Yankee and folks outside of So Cal know who he is:

• Padres go to the Wells for new hurler (NC Times). And while starring for the Pointers [Pt. Loma High School], Wells dueled with Padres pitching coach Darren Balsley, a Mt. Carmel High alumnus. Balsley was the winner of a 1-0 classic in the CIF Class 3A championship game in 1981. Hey, what the heck, why not throw Balsley into the rotation while we’re at it.
• Padres place bet on Wells for 2004 (U-T). “Am I worried about David backing out?” Towers asked rhetorically. “No.” So much for that idea.
• Padres shell out bucks prudently (U-T). This is Nick Canepa’s apology. I guess if he talked to John Moores, then he must be the bearer of truth. Sigh.
• Everything Warren Buffett Knows He Learned From The Padres (Management by Baseball). Fascinating take on the signing from a blog I’ve just discovered. Obtain a player who the market values as over the hill at a low price and see if you can squeeze value out of the resource for a few years or more. He also refers to San Diego as a "hedonist sun-worshipping burg," which leads me to think that maybe I’m living in the wrong part of town.
• Transaction Oracle — Dan offers a much more concise version of what I’ve attempted to say. There’s no fastball to lose and no athletic figure to thicken, so as long as his control remains, I expect Wells to be effective. That being said, I don’t like this at all from the Padres’ perspective – they’re just not at the point in the competitive cycle that they should be giving up 2 (sic) draft picks for a decent +40 starter.
• Baseball: David Wells signs one-year contract with Padres (channelnewsasia.com). This made the headlines in Singapore, where they probably think he’s been demoted to the minor leagues and maybe they’re right.
• Baseball Primer discussion. Maybe, like me, after absorbing this news, you need a good laugh. If you like juvenile fat jokes, this thread could serve as a nice respite from reality, if only for a few moments. It is recommended not to eat or drink while reading these comments.

That’s all I’m going to say for now. I’m trying to stay positive. I can’t find a way to put a good spin on this move. It’s not even that one player will make that much of a difference, but the apparent lack of commitment is disheartening, to say the least. Nobody wants the Padres to spend irresponsibly, but there’s a difference between being smart and being cheap. And right now, it’s looking like the Pads are cheaper than they are smart. And that, from this fan’s perspective, is very disappointing.

Happy New Year. Peace. Hope for a brighter future, whenever that may be…