The final installment of the Padres Top 30 Prospects has been posted. If it isn’t too gauche to comment on one’s own commentary, I’d like to make a few observations.

• Despite the presence of some outstanding young talent, Sean Burroughs was an absolute no-brainer for #1. There are a lot of people who don’t believe he’ll hit for much power in the bigs but I’m not one of them. When I say that he “projects eventually to hit 25+ homers a year” I’m actually being conservative. I really believe this kid is going to be a Chipper Jones type offensive force in a few years.
• I’ve spent much of the winter obssessing over who is the better prospect between Jake Peavy and Dennis Tankersley. While I do believe Tankersley has very good upside, I went with Peavy because he’s 2 years younger and has better pedigree. He’s been slowly but steadily climbing the ranks, whereas Tankersley just burst onto the scene after almost rotting in the Boston system for a few years. I’m not discounting him at all as a prospect; these guys are both studs. But for me, the age difference and the pedigree are enough to push Peavy slightly ahead of Tank.
• Mark Phillips is scary good. There is now some talk that he’ll begin 2002 with Peavy at Double-A Mobile. If he succeeds there, he could follow in the footsteps of high-profile high school lefties Rick Ankiel and C.C. Sabathia, and compete for a spot in the big-league rotation as early as spring 2003. Phillips probably has the highest upside of any pitcher in the organization, and I fully expect him, Peavy, Ben Johnson, and Jake Gautreau to be battling it out for #1 prospect next year. My money is on Phillips or Peavy.
• Ben Johnson has generated a lot of different opinions this off-season. Some see him as a potential All-Star, others as a fourth outfielder. I’m somewhere in between, leaning slightly toward the former. My comparison to Andruw Jones was partially from a statistical standpoint and partially from a physical standpoint. At the plate, he really reminds me a lot of Andruw. Forget the defense, though. I guess some people are down on Johnson because he’s got a relatively high flameout factor. He really, really needs to tighten up his strike zone to make it happen. But still, any 19-year-old who logs an 800 OPS in High-A ball deserves attention. He probably gets my vote as most intriguing prospect in the system.
• Watch out for Ben Howard. He’s got the best fastball of any starter in the organization. He’ll likely be back at Mobile to start 2002, which means he’ll continue working with Darren Balsley, the pitching coach at Lake Elsinore last year. Balsley is credited with much of the Storm staff’s success in 2001 and is the first coach who has been able to get Howard to throw strikes with any kind of consistency. Howard’s upside isn’t quite as high as those of the Big Three but he’s not as far behind as you might think.
• I’m a shade uncomfortable with my ranking of Jason Middlebrook at #9 simply because of his age. When I started writing these reports, Brett Tomko hadn’t been acquired and Kevin Jarvis hadn’t re-signed. A lot of my ranking of Middlebrook had to do with his opportunity to pitch in the bigs right now. I still like him as a prospect but he is 27 years old and he needs to make his move now or risk being absolutely buried by younger kids with higher upsides. Middlebrook is actually the kind of guy Kevin Towers should be shopping around to a team with poor pitching depth. He could be very useful as a swingman right now and possibly as a mid-rotation starter in the near future. But probably not with the Pads.

So there you have it. Enjoy…