In 1996, 19-year-old outfielder Andruw Jones tore through the Atlanta Braves minor league system, beginning it at Class-A Durham, and ending it by becoming the youngest player in major league history to slug two homers in a World Series game. Coming into last season expectations for the phenom from Curacao were understandably high. But, like many young players, Jones struggled to hit big-league pitching on a consistent basis. As the season wore on, and the pressure mounted, Jones saw his batting average plummet from .272 at the all-star break to .231 at season’s end. His peripheral numbers similarly declined, as indicated by .363 OBP/.446 SLG before the break versus .297/.387 after. Particularly baffling to the young prospect were right-handed pitchers, who held him to .204/.300/.373 — numbers not unlike those of Gerald Williams, who ironically is now with the Braves as a backup to Jones.

So what went wrong? How come Jones struggled so mightily? How come he couldn’t hit the curve ball? How come he looked more like Willie Whiffmeister than Willie Mays? Before we answer that question, let’s look at some numbers:

Age    G    AB    R    H   2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB   SO   AVG   OBP   SLG    SB   CS   SB%
 21  113   413   72   92   26   3  16   48   65  102  .223  .330  .416    36    7  .837
 20  153   399   60   92   18   1  18   70   56  107  .231  .329  .416    20   11  .645

These stat lines look pretty similar. Check out those OBP and SLG, the two best indicators of offensive production. This could easily be two different seasons by the same player. But they’re not; the top one belongs to one of the greatest players of this generation, indeed, of all time, Barry Bonds. The bottom one belongs to our good friend Mr. Jones. This is how each of them performed in their first full season in the major leagues (okay, okay, Bonds spent the first 1 1/2 months in the minors, but you get the idea).

I was rereading the 1987 Bill James Baseball Abstract the other day and stumbled across something called “similarity scores.” These scores show, as the name indicates, how similar two seasons were. I won’t go into all the technical details, but essentially two exactly identical seasons give a perfect score of 1000. For each pair of statistics that are appreciably different from each other, a certain number of “points” are deducted from the score. The similarity score for Bonds’ 1986 season and Jones’ 1997 season is roughly 944. Of the 56 points deducted from the original 1000, fully one-quarter of those result from the 1 year age difference (James placed much greater weight on age than on any other statistic when evaluating rookies). The other main divergences were in games played and RBI (Bonds spent much of his rookie season batting leadoff for the Pirates). But all in all, these look like pretty darned similar seasons.

“Yes, they look similar, but offensive levels were much higher in 1997 than in 1986, when Bonds broke in,” some of you (assuming anyone reads this) may be saying. Okay, then, if we adjust Jones’ numbers to 1986 levels, his line reads .206/.295/.356. That’s not quite as good, is it? No, it isn’t, but let’s remember a few key points:

Had he followed a more “traditional” path, Jones likely would have spent 1997 at Triple-A Richmond. His numbers in 1996 were mighty impressive, and Jones appeared unfazed by each new level of competition he faced. But take a closer look; although his production improved with every step up the ladder, his plate discipline suffered:

      YR TEAM        G   AB   R    H  2B 3B  HR RBI   BB  SO  SB   AVG  OBP  SLG
      96 DURHA A    66  243  65   76  14  3  17  43   42  54  16  .313 .419 .605
      96 GREEN AA   38  157  39   58  10  1  12  37   17  34  12  .369 .432 .675
      96 RICHM AAA  12   45  11   17   3  1   5  12    1   9   2  .378 .391 .822

These are truly staggering numbers by any standard, let alone for a 19-year-old. But clearly he was still a work in progress. Andruw Jones may have been better off spending at least half a season at Triple-A last year. But he didn’t, and he certainly didn’t embarrass himself in the big leagues, despite what many of the mainstream media would have you believe.
Bonds was a pretty polished player coming out of a very strong collegiate program at Arizona State University. Jones was a comparatively raw talent with loads of tools, but less playing experience at a high level.
Bonds spent his first (nearly) full season in the bigs as a 21-year-old. Jones spent his as a 20-year-old. On the surface this doesn’t seem too important, but according to the 1987 Abstract, the peak value of a player who starts his major league career at age 20 is likely to be higher than that of a player who debuts at age 21 — about 31% higher, in fact. Bill James even provides a list of pairs of players who had comparable rookie seasons, one at age 20, the other at age 21:

      20-Year-Old          21-Year-Old
      --------------------------------
      Hank Aaron           Gus Bell
      Buddy Bell           Sixto Lezcano
      Johnny Bench         Greg Luzinski
      Curt Flood           Jim Spencer
      Tony Kubek           Tim McCarver
      Willie Mays          Curt Blefray
      Rick Manning         George Brett
      Joe Torre            Gus Bell
      Boog Powell          Rick Monday

This is a pretty solid bunch of ballplayers, but while there are some nice names among the 21-year-olds (Bell, Brett, Monday), there are some truly legendary names among the 20-year-olds (Aaron, Bench, Mays). Now I’m certainly not suggesting that Andruw Jones is going to outperform Bonds over the course of their careers based on this research. It is of course conceivable that he could play Rick Manning to Bonds’ George Brett. But in general guys who are successful at the major league level at age 20 will put up better career totals than similar players who got their start a year later.

Before we finish up, I’ll throw out a few more numbers. I tend to be somewhat leery of defensive statistics, but for the sake of completion, I’ll include both players’ for their first full seasons:

                                           League        League
Player     G    PO     A     E    DP  FPct  FPct  Range   Range
Bonds    110   280     9     5     2  .983  .979   2.63    1.82
Jones    147   288    15     7     2  .977  .980   2.06    1.77

Bonds had better range; Jones recorded more assists. Both were above average in all respects except fielding percentage, arguably the least important defensive statistic.

Now let’s look at their career minor league numbers:

Player     G   AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  AVG  OBP  SLG
Bonds    115  402  79 122 23  6 20  74  70  83  31 .303 .403 .540
Jones    318 1220 261 369 82 13 62 218 155 263 107 .302 .389 .543

For easier comparison, we’ll put this into seasonal notation:

Player     G   AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB  SO  SB  AVG  OBP  SLG
Bonds    162  566 111 172 32  8 28 104  99 117  44 .304 .408 .537
Jones    162  622 133 188 42  7 32 111  79 134  55 .302 .381 .547

Just for kicks, I’ve calculated the similarity score for the above lines is — neglecting for obvious reasons the age factor — and it’s (I swear, I did not plan this) 944!

Well, I’m tired of spouting out numbers, and I’m sure you’re tired of reading them. So let’s return to our original question: What went wrong with Andruw Jones? The answer is “nothing” — he is simply going through the process that every player must go through in making the transition from the minors to the big leagues. If he is as good as his numbers indicate, he should be just fine; i.e., he should learn how to hit right-handers, how to lay off the breaking balls in the dirt, how to use his “tools” to the best of his ability to make himself a perennial all star.

The potential is there; now it’s just a matter of realizing it. Will there be struggles? Of course there will be, just as there were for Bonds, for Ken Griffey, Jr., for Alex Rodriguez, and for just about anyone who has played the game at such a high level. But I like the kid’s chances. And I hope that when Jones finally does join the ranks of the elite, wins a string of MVP awards, and becomes the third player to join the 40/40 club in the year 2007, all those people who right now think of him as a “flop” will come to appreciate the man for his accomplishments and not dwell on the “shortcomings” of his early career.

Now if we could just get people to do that with Bonds…