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Links for 31 Oct 08

Friday, October 31, 2008
by Geoff Young
Happy Halloween! To the links... Sabathia's free agency could set up a big payday for Padres ace (San Diego Union-Tribune). Reader Nick G. sends us an update on the Jake Peavy "story" from Tom Krasovic. Quoth Peavy's agent, Barry Axelrod: Making this about money is not my style, nor Jake's style. I think we proved that. But at the same time, I don't think Jake should have to sacrifice anything. I don't doubt Axelrod's sincerity, but these millionaires need to let go of that whole "it's not about the money" thing. Even if they believe it, and even if they're correct in believing it, nobody wants to hear about Peavy's "sacrifice." Don't get me wrong, ...
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Posted in Notes and Links | 8 Comments »

OBG08 Revisited: Hitters

Wednesday, October 8, 2008
by Geoff Young
Back in February we did some community projections for the 2008 Padres. In the interest of accountability, here's how we measured up to reality. Catchers Josh Bard, 2008  PABAOBPSLG Projected425.278.357.410 Actual198.202.279.270 Yuck. Our most pessimistic projection had Bard at a 725 OPS. Michael Barrett, 2008  PABAOBPSLG Projected246.263.323.419 Actual107.202.274.298 We need a synonym for "yuck," preferably something that rhymes. If only there were such a word... Infielders Adrian Gonzalez, 2008  PABAOBPSLG Projected641.293.362.517 Actual700.279.361.510 We totally nailed this one. Imagine how many batting titles Gonzalez could win if he didn't play half his games at Petco Park and weren't Molina-brother slow. Khalil Greene, 2008  PABAOBPSLG Projected561.257.309.464 Actual423.213.260.339 Greene and Bard killed the offense this year, but we already knew that. Tadahito Iguchi, 2008  PABAOBPSLG Projected532.263.341.391 Actual337.232.292.306 Iguchi was actually a little worse than Marcus Giles in 2007, which just boggles the imagination....
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Posted in Projections | 19 Comments »

Padres tickets  Chargers tickets  Sports tickets

Faulty Radar, and Performance by Position

Wednesday, September 24, 2008
by Geoff Young
I've got a few things on my mind this morning. First off, I'm reorganizing the categories of this here blog, trying to put some of those information architecture skills I learned at my last job to use. Among other things, I'm discovering that it's a lot harder to organize your own stuff than someone else's. Anyway, in the process of doing this, I've rediscovered a few ancient posts. One of them (pardon the ugly tables) discusses the limitations in using statistics to evaluate prospects. I'm thinking of Matt Antonelli and the fact that he's fallen off a few radar screens because of his poor showing at Portland this year. Not that Antonelli is the same type of player, but I wonder how many folks had given ...
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Posted in Research | 4 Comments »

When Projections Go Bad

Friday, May 30, 2008
by Geoff Young
What the heck, now is as good a time as any to revisit pre-season projections. I know, OPS and ERA aren't the end-all and be-all, but they're good enough for government work... Projections vs Reality: Hitters  OPS PlayerBJCHMAMIZIDSAct Statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs and are through games of May 29, 2008. Click on column head for more info about projection system. Josh Bard785741791728767767540 Adrian Gonzalez839840842810862879894 Tadahito Iguchi760737756723751732657 Kevin Kouzmanoff882796789740837858741 Khalil Greene762764752747742773599 Scott Hairston833740769721722794714 Jim Edmonds830766782739784756498 Brian Giles820777783732773789815 Gonzalez and Giles are doing as well as or better than expected; Iguchi, Kouzmanoff, and Hairston are underperforming; and Bard, Greene, and Edmonds aren't even close. Projections vs Reality: Pitchers  ERA PlayerBJCHMA...
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Posted in Projections | 42 Comments »

IGD: Padres @ Cubs (15 May 08)

Thursday, May 15, 2008
by Geoff Young
Padres (15-26) @ Cubs (24-16) Greg Maddux vs Ryan Dempster 11:20 a.m. PT no television AM 1090, FM 105.7, XM 183 MLB, B-R The Padres showed some good fight at the end of Wednesday evening's game. Unfortunately they spent much of the early part digging themselves into a deep, dark hole. Still, I liked the matchup of Brian Giles against Kerry Wood with the bases juiced in the ninth. Too bad it didn't work out for us this time. Oh well, we turn the page... * * * The Cubs have ...
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Posted in In-Game Discussion | 188 Comments »

Padres Release Edmonds, Shuffle Deck Chairs

Saturday, May 10, 2008
by Geoff Young
So much for Jim Edmonds. Ducksnorts readers projected him to hit .255/.338/.418, with the most pessimistic of us pegging his OPS at a limp 645. Sadly, the former All-Star didn't even come close to those meager numbers, finishing his Padres career at .178/.265/.233 in 103 plate appearances and, more importantly, looking lost in center field. Edmonds has been released, and his spot on the roster taken by Jody Gerut, who presumably will see most of the action in center field. This is a gutsy move considering that Gerut has 26 big-league games under his belt ...
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Posted in Roster Notes | 38 Comments »

The Shape of Things to Come

Wednesday, May 7, 2008
by Geoff Young
Top of the ninth, two on, one out. Adrian Gonzalez steps to the plate. Braves manager Bobby Cox summons ex-Padre Royce Ring, who promptly hangs a breaking ball. Gonzalez swats it high and deep down the right-field line. He, catcher Brian McCann, and plate umpire Wally Bell all watch as it sails into the Atlanta night... just foul for strike one. Ring proceeds to fan Gonzalez. After a pitching change, Kevin Kouzmanoff lofts a harmless fly ball to center, into the waiting glove of another ex-Padre, Mark Kotsay. Game over. The Padres lose again. That's the season in a nutshell so far. The Padres play poorly, and then, when they get opportunity, it fizzles... or misses by a few feet, whatever. I'm not prepared to ...
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Posted in Game Recaps, Roster Notes | 161 Comments »

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