Projections

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OBG08 Revisited: Pitchers

Friday, October 10, 2008
by Geoff Young

We're looking back at our pre-season community projections. On Wednesday we covered the hitters; today we turn to the pitchers. Left-Handers Justin Hampson, 2008 IPERA Projected484.21 Actual30.22.93 Our most optimistic projection had Hampson at a 3.50 ERA. Joe Thatcher, 2008 IPERA Projected582.86 Actual25.28.42 We missed this about as badly as we could. So did other people: CHONE had Thatcher's ERA at 3.67, Marcels had it at 3.86, ZiPS at 2.96. Randy Wolf, 2008 IPERA Projected1244.18 Actual190.14.30 Wolf's ERA for the Padres was 4.74. The bigger shock is that he made it through a season healthy for the first time since 2003. I wouldn't mind seeing him back in San Diego next year. I can think of worse options, many of which I got to see firsthand after Wolf was traded to the Astros. Right-Hander...

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Posted in Projections | 12 Comments »

OBG08 Revisited: Hitters

Wednesday, October 8, 2008
by Geoff Young

Back in February we did some community projections for the 2008 Padres. In the interest of accountability, here's how we measured up to reality. Catchers Josh Bard, 2008 PABAOBPSLG Projected425.278.357.410 Actual198.202.279.270 Yuck. Our most pessimistic projection had Bard at a 725 OPS. Michael Barrett, 2008 PABAOBPSLG Projected246.263.323.419 Actual107.202.274.298 We need a synonym for "yuck," preferably something that rhymes. If only there were such a word... Infielders Adrian Gonzalez, 2008 PABAOBPSLG Projected641.293.362.517 Actual700.279.361.510 We totally nailed this one. Imagine how many batting titles Gonzalez could win if he didn't play half his games at Petco Park and weren't Molina-brother slow. Khalil Greene, 2008 PABAOBPSLG Projected561.257.309.464 Actual423.213.260.339 Greene and Bard killed the offense this year, but we already knew that. Tadahito Iguchi, 2008 PABAOBPSLG Projected532.263.341.391 Actual337.232.292.306 Iguchi was actually a little worse than Marcus Giles in 2007, which just boggles the imagination....

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Posted in Projections | 19 Comments »

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When Projections Go Bad

Friday, May 30, 2008
by Geoff Young

What the heck, now is as good a time as any to revisit pre-season projections. I know, OPS and ERA aren't the end-all and be-all, but they're good enough for government work... Projections vs Reality: Hitters OPS PlayerBJ CH MA MI ZI DSAct Statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs and are through games of May 29, 2008. Click on column head for more info about projection system. Josh Bard785741791728767767540 Adrian Gonzalez839840842810862879894 Tadahito Iguchi760737756723751732657 Kevin Kouzmanoff882796789740837858741 Khalil Greene762764752747742773599 Scott Hairston833740769721722794714 Jim Edmonds830766782739784756498 Brian Giles820777783732773789815 Gonzalez and Giles are doing as well as or better than expected; Iguchi, Kouzmanoff, and Hairston are underperforming; and Bard, Greene, and Edmonds aren't even close. Projections vs Reality: Pitchers ERA PlayerBJ CH MA...

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Posted in Projections | 42 Comments »

OBG08 Projections for Padres Pitchers

Sunday, February 17, 2008
by Geoff Young

Yesterday we ran the hitters, today it's time for the moundsmen: OBG08 Projections for Select Padres Pitchers PlayerNo.IPERARange Key: No., number of people who submitted guesses; IP, innings pitched, ERA, duh; range, lower and upper guesses for ERA. Left-Handers Hampson, Justin11484.213.50 - 5.05 Thatcher, Joe11582.861.96 - 3.42 Wolf, Randy151244.183.71 - 4.91 Right-Handers Bell, Heath12812.762.25 - 3.53 Cameron, Kevin11533.783.10 - 4.85 Germano, Justin14814.623.74 - 5.50 Hensley, Clay13804.433.80 - 5.20 Hoffman, Trevor15513.212.60 - 5.00 Maddux, Greg171914.093.80 - 4.29 Meredith, Cla14722.972.40 - 3.41 Peavy, Jake212122.812.12 - 3.20 Prior, Mark14684.163.21 - 5.15 Young, Chris171793.232.40 - 4.15 I don't know if people got tired of the project toward the end or just had less confidence in projecting pitchers (especially relievers), but there was less participation here. I'm not being critical, ...

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Posted in Projections | 8 Comments »

OBG08 Projections for Padres Hitters

Saturday, February 16, 2008
by Geoff Young

Here are the results of our community projections for 2008 Padres hitters. To see voting and discussion for an individual player, click on his name. A spreadsheet containing all of our picks will be available shortly. Thanks to all for participating! OBG08 Projections for Select Padres Hitters PlayerNo.PABAOBPSLGOPS Range Key: No., number of people who submitted guesses; PA, plate appearances; BA, batting average; OBP, on-base percentage; SLG, slugging percentage; OPS range, lower and upper guesses for OBP + SLG. Catchers Bard, Josh19425.278.357.410725 - 816 Barrett, Michael19246.263.323.419670 - 830 Infielders Gonzalez, Adrian19641.293.362.517780 - 935 Greene, Khalil21561.257.309.464730 - 832 Iguchi, Tadahito17532.263.341.391680 - 774 Kouzmanoff, Kevin20597.294.355.503800 - 1026 Outfielders Edmonds, Jim17402.255.338.418645 - 840 Giles, Brian17531.274.373.412700 - 860 Hairston, Scott20392.268.327.467741 - 860 Headley, Chase15240.266.347.435670 - 900 A few quick comments: If ...

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OBG08: Cameron, Hampson, and Others

Tuesday, February 12, 2008
by Geoff Young

OBG08: Le Menu Josh Bard/Michael Barrett Adrian Gonzalez Tadahito Iguchi Kevin Kouzmanoff Khalil Greene Scott Hairston Chase Headley Jim Edmonds Brian Giles Jake Peavy Chris Young Greg Maddux Trevor Hoffman Heath Bell Cla Meredith Welcome to the back end of the bullpen. It's hard to say who, exactly, will be here. I'm assuming that Kevin Cameron and Justin Hampson will be back -- possibly even pitching in meaningful situations now that Doug Brocail is gone. Beyond Cameron and Hampson, the Padres have plenty of options: Michael Gardner, Enrique Gonzalez, Carlos Guevara, Wil Ledezma, Joe Thatcher, Mauro Zarate, and probably some others I'm forgetting. I won't bother with all those guys, although you're more than welcome to include them in your guesses. Cameron: ...

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Posted in Projections | 27 Comments »

OBG08: Cla Meredith

Monday, February 11, 2008
by Geoff Young

I'm a sucker for freak stats, so I love the fact that Cla Meredith recorded more groundball outs in 2007 than did Chris Young despite pitching less than half as many innings. Meredith gave up a lot more hits last year than he did in his rookie campaign, but despite the high batting average, the overall line against him was .296/.334/.387 -- that's sort of like Willie McGee, Luis Polonia, Lance Johnson, or any number of other "slap-and-go" hitters from the '80s and '90s; Mickey Rivers if you want to go old-school, Mark Grudzielanek if you want to update it. In other words, ...

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Posted in Projections | 37 Comments »