Projections

Archive for the ‘Projections’ Category

When Projections Go Bad

Friday, May 30, 2008
by Geoff Young

What the heck, now is as good a time as any to revisit pre-season projections. I know, OPS and ERA aren't the end-all and be-all, but they're good enough for government work... Projections vs Reality: Hitters OPS PlayerBJ CH MA MI ZI DSAct Statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs and are through games of May 29, 2008. Click on column head for more info about projection system. Josh Bard785741791728767767540 Adrian Gonzalez839840842810862879894 Tadahito Iguchi760737756723751732657 Kevin Kouzmanoff882796789740837858741 Khalil Greene762764752747742773599 Scott Hairston833740769721722794714 Jim Edmonds830766782739784756498 Brian Giles820777783732773789815 Gonzalez and Giles are doing as well as or better than expected; Iguchi, Kouzmanoff, and Hairston are underperforming; and Bard, Greene, and Edmonds aren't even close. Projections vs Reality: Pitchers ERA PlayerBJ CH MA...

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Posted in Projections | 42 Comments »

OBG08 Projections for Padres Pitchers

Sunday, February 17, 2008
by Geoff Young

Yesterday we ran the hitters, today it's time for the moundsmen: OBG08 Projections for Select Padres Pitchers PlayerNo.IPERARange Key: No., number of people who submitted guesses; IP, innings pitched, ERA, duh; range, lower and upper guesses for ERA. Left-Handers Hampson, Justin11484.213.50 - 5.05 Thatcher, Joe11582.861.96 - 3.42 Wolf, Randy151244.183.71 - 4.91 Right-Handers Bell, Heath12812.762.25 - 3.53 Cameron, Kevin11533.783.10 - 4.85 Germano, Justin14814.623.74 - 5.50 Hensley, Clay13804.433.80 - 5.20 Hoffman, Trevor15513.212.60 - 5.00 Maddux, Greg171914.093.80 - 4.29 Meredith, Cla14722.972.40 - 3.41 Peavy, Jake212122.812.12 - 3.20 Prior, Mark14684.163.21 - 5.15 Young, Chris171793.232.40 - 4.15 I don't know if people got tired of the project toward the end or just had less confidence in projecting pitchers (especially relievers), but there was less participation here. I'm not being critical, ...

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Posted in Projections | 8 Comments »

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OBG08 Projections for Padres Hitters

Saturday, February 16, 2008
by Geoff Young

Here are the results of our community projections for 2008 Padres hitters. To see voting and discussion for an individual player, click on his name. A spreadsheet containing all of our picks will be available shortly. Thanks to all for participating! OBG08 Projections for Select Padres Hitters PlayerNo.PABAOBPSLGOPS Range Key: No., number of people who submitted guesses; PA, plate appearances; BA, batting average; OBP, on-base percentage; SLG, slugging percentage; OPS range, lower and upper guesses for OBP + SLG. Catchers Bard, Josh19425.278.357.410725 - 816 Barrett, Michael19246.263.323.419670 - 830 Infielders Gonzalez, Adrian19641.293.362.517780 - 935 Greene, Khalil21561.257.309.464730 - 832 Iguchi, Tadahito17532.263.341.391680 - 774 Kouzmanoff, Kevin20597.294.355.503800 - 1026 Outfielders Edmonds, Jim17402.255.338.418645 - 840 Giles, Brian17531.274.373.412700 - 860 Hairston, Scott20392.268.327.467741 - 860 Headley, Chase15240.266.347.435670 - 900 A few quick comments: If ...

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Posted in Projections | 11 Comments »

OBG08: Cameron, Hampson, and Others

Tuesday, February 12, 2008
by Geoff Young

OBG08: Le Menu Josh Bard/Michael Barrett Adrian Gonzalez Tadahito Iguchi Kevin Kouzmanoff Khalil Greene Scott Hairston Chase Headley Jim Edmonds Brian Giles Jake Peavy Chris Young Greg Maddux Trevor Hoffman Heath Bell Cla Meredith Welcome to the back end of the bullpen. It's hard to say who, exactly, will be here. I'm assuming that Kevin Cameron and Justin Hampson will be back -- possibly even pitching in meaningful situations now that Doug Brocail is gone. Beyond Cameron and Hampson, the Padres have plenty of options: Michael Gardner, Enrique Gonzalez, Carlos Guevara, Wil Ledezma, Joe Thatcher, Mauro Zarate, and probably some others I'm forgetting. I won't bother with all those guys, although you're more than welcome to include them in your guesses. Cameron: ...

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Posted in Projections | 27 Comments »

OBG08: Cla Meredith

Monday, February 11, 2008
by Geoff Young

I'm a sucker for freak stats, so I love the fact that Cla Meredith recorded more groundball outs in 2007 than did Chris Young despite pitching less than half as many innings. Meredith gave up a lot more hits last year than he did in his rookie campaign, but despite the high batting average, the overall line against him was .296/.334/.387 -- that's sort of like Willie McGee, Luis Polonia, Lance Johnson, or any number of other "slap-and-go" hitters from the '80s and '90s; Mickey Rivers if you want to go old-school, Mark Grudzielanek if you want to update it. In other words, ...

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Posted in Projections | 37 Comments »

OBG08: Heath Bell

Sunday, February 10, 2008
by Geoff Young

In his first full big-league season, Heath Bell dominated in every sense of the word. Bell's stuff is closer-worthy, and he may get the opportunity to save some games in '08 when Trevor Hoffman needs a breather. The one concern I have with Bell is that he was worked extremely hard last year. It's impossible to say whether this will affect him in the short or long run. What we do know is that if healthy, Bell is legit: 80 IP, 2.49 ERA.

Posted in Projections | 19 Comments »

OBG08: Trevor Hoffman

Saturday, February 9, 2008
by Geoff Young

Yes, the strikeout rate continues to fall, and yes, it's scarier to watch him do his job now than it was a decade ago, but let the record show that Trevor Hoffman's ERA has been below 3.00 every season except one since 1996. Eventually the magic will disappear, and that will be a sad time for all of us. Is this the year? Could be wishful thinking on my part, but I don't think so: 60 IP, 2.70 ERA.

Posted in Projections | 22 Comments »