2008 Annual

Archive for the ‘2008 Annual’ Category

Friday Links (14 Dec 07)

Friday, December 14, 2007
by Geoff Young

Quick word on the book before we get to links. I've completed drafts of three chapters; two more are very close to being done, another is at about 40-50%, and I'm just getting started on "2007 in Review." On that last point, I've gone through the past 14 months or so of blog postings and highlighted some of the most important points. From that, I've created a rough outline. Next steps are to flesh everything out, follow up on research inquiries I made several months ago, etc. The outline is a bit ambitious, and I'm not sure I'll be able to give everything the attention it's due, but I shall do my best. To that end, and kind of the point of me telling you all this, ...

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Posted in 2008 Annual, Notes and Links | 126 Comments »

Top 10 Prospects for 2008

Tuesday, December 11, 2007
by Geoff Young

I've shied away from compiling top prospect lists in recent years because it's my belief that what they best measure are the list-maker's biases. (Okay, and maybe I'm still feeling a little sheepish about ranking Jake Gautreau ahead of Jason Bay once upon a time.) Other people like reading prospect lists, though, and I'm not prepared to be a curmudgeon without good cause, so what the hey. My general approach is to balance upside with proximity to the big leagues as best I can, then hope I get lucky. I've seen six of my picks play in person, including four of my top five. For those guys, my evaluations include their statistical record, second-hand reports I've read, ...

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Posted in 2008 Annual, Minors | 69 Comments »

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League Offensive Levels for Padres Affiliates, 2007

Wednesday, December 5, 2007
by Geoff Young

Yesterday we were talking about Rookie-league numbers and reader Didi asked about something I hinted at but didn't delve into as much as I might have. I wasn't being coy, so much as I was being... disorganized. In discussing the motivation behind providing comparable players for Padres minor leaguers, I noted that: Cedric Hunter hit .282/.344/.373 in the Midwest League, which seems really low until you consider how much his league suppressed offense in 2007. Didi then asked: Is it possible to describe the league (as you mentioned the number of games played and league average numbers) to add a bit more detail? Yes, it is absolutely possible. It also is absolutely necessary: Offensive Stats by League, 2007 MLBPCLTEXCALMWLNWLAZLDSL Statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference and ESPN. R/G4.805.134.635.594.345.135.664.65 BA.268.279.264.271.255.259.264.238 OBP.336.346.338.344.324.344.350.338 SLG.423.437.407.426.372.386.377.320 BB/SO.500.494.503.477.417.456.464.542 ISO.155.158.143.155.117.127.113.082 As you can see, ...

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Posted in 2008 Annual, Minors | 110 Comments »

Why I Don’t Trust Rookie-League Numbers

Tuesday, December 4, 2007
by Geoff Young

I spent most of Monday piecing together the minor-league chapter for the Ducksnorts 2008 Annual. Mainly I worked on the pitchers -- Mat Latos and a whole lot of strike throwers with minimal upside. Part of what I'm doing is trying to provide context for individual players. When you look at a stat line, you need to know something about the environment in which it was produced in order to make sense of it. Comparable Players To that end, I'm playing around with comparables for key position players in the Padres organization (haven't decided if I'll do the same with pitchers). These have no predictive value but hopefully give some indication of how well a player performed relative to his current league. For example, Cedric Hunter hit .282/.344/.373 in ...

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Posted in 2008 Annual, Minors | 84 Comments »

Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual Preliminary Outline

Wednesday, October 10, 2007
by Geoff Young

So this has been in the works for a while. Let me know if you have any suggestions. Also, if you're interested in reviewing chapters, drop me a line and I'll get you added to our super secret list. 2007 in Review -- Brief examination of past season at big-league level: Roster construction (distribution of talent in terms of pitching vs hitting, trade vs draft/FA, etc.; how this compares to seasons past) Bud Black's first season as manager (what were his tendencies, etc.) Monthly recaps (statistical breakdowns, key games) Revisit Petco Park effects Revisit Bullpen on a Shoestring Player Commentary Dashboard (visual representation of relevant statistical output) Profile (brief scouting report) Forecast (what to expect in 2008 and beyond) Minor Leagues Recap by level (team results, individual highlights) Draft summary and analysis (philosophy, early returns, etc.) Depth chart...

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Posted in 2008 Annual, Minors | 30 Comments »

Thank You, and Winter Plans

Wednesday, October 3, 2007
by Geoff Young

So, now what? Before we get to that, I'd like to thank everyone for visiting, participating, and otherwise being a part of Ducksnorts again throughout the 2007 season. We laughed, we cried, we debated the great issues of our time. Or something like that. There are far too many folks to thank individually, so I'll keep the list short. Thanks to Peter Friberg, who did a great job covering prospects for us this year. Thanks also to my unbelievably accommodating wife for believing in this crazy dream of mine. Words can't begin to express my gratitude. The rest of you know who you are. If I listed all your names and contributions, we'd never be done, so you get one giant pat on the back. * * * This is ...

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Posted in 2008 Annual, Site News | 179 Comments »

Overlooked Players in Padres History

Thursday, June 28, 2007
by Geoff Young

Shifting gears a little, one idea I have for the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual is a chapter devoted to three or so former Padres that didn't make our lists of top players in franchise history (2007 Annual) but whose accomplishments deserve attention. I'm knee deep in the 1969 season, so one of my subjects will be outfielder Ollie Brown. This leaves two more ex-Padres to consider. With no real guidelines other than they cannot have appeared in last year's book, who should we profile? Here are a few names to help get us started: Steve Arlin Greg W. Harris Dennis Rasmussen Brad ...

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Posted in 2007 Annual, 2008 Annual, Minors | 70 Comments »