Padres won their second straight road series, taking two of three from the Reds this weekend. Good offensive performances from pretty much every spot in the lineup. Real strong outing from Adam Eaton Sunday afternoon. His work in the fifth, striking out Adam Dunn and Willy Mo Peña with the bases loaded, was clutch. Eaton also doubled twice, scoring and driving in two runs.

Brian Giles is scuffling. He’s hitting just .198/.291/.297 since the All-Star break. When he’s going right, Giles’ m.o. is to get ahead in the count and drive his pitch. Right now he’s either not getting a good hitter’s count or, more often, getting a good count and missing his pitch. It’s frustrating enough to watch; I can only imagine how frustrating it is to experience first-hand.

There is some sentiment that the Pads would be better off not having traded Jason Bay and Oliver Perez for Giles, but that opinion requires knowledge that nobody had at the time the deal was made. We knew there was a chance Bay and Perez would develop into quality big-league players, but we didn’t know how quickly it would happen and to what degree. Perez, in particular, is a much more disciplined pitcher than he was in San Diego.

The Friars gave up quality to get quality. They were moving into a new ballpark financed in large part by the citizens of San Diego. It would be very difficult in those circumstances not to make a signficant move that demonstrated some commitment to fielding a winning ballclub. No, the trade hasn’t worked out as well for the Padres as we expected, but who’s to say that Bay or Perez would’ve blossomed as quickly if they’d remained here? If we’re going to second-guess based on outcomes, we might as well run Kevin Towers over the coals for giving up on Jaret Wright too soon. Bottom line: The trade helped both clubs achieve their respective goals. No regrets. That said, it’d be nice to see Giles catch fire soon.

Eaton, meantime, remains something of an enigma. In terms of pure stuff, he’s right there with Jake Peavy, but the results aren’t there. Sunday marked Eaton’s 100th big-league start. And although he’s put up some solid numbers, it sure would be nice to see a little more consistency out of him at this stage in his career. I still think Eaton’s got a chance to be a dominant starter in this league. Here is where I remind myself that he doesn’t turn 27 until November and that he’s ahead of another enigmatic right-hander who eventually became a terrific starter, Matt Clement. Here’s how both looked at age 26:

            IP  ERA  H/9 BB/9 SO/9 BB/SO HR/9
Clement  399.1 4.82 8.99 4.91 7.17  1.46 0.90
Eaton*   611.1 4.40 8.64 3.27 7.02  2.15 1.21

*Through games of August 15, 2004.

Gotta feel pretty good, too, having Darren Balsley work with him. One of these days it’s going to click for Eaton. I thought it would be this season, but maybe I was a year early. He’s going to be a good one.

Speaking of good ones, how about Khalil Greene? He smacked two doubles and two homers in Friday night’s game. What the box score doesn’t tell you is that he also made a spectacular defensive play and almost hit a third ball out of the park in his final at-bat. And on Saturday, even though he went hitless, he absolutely smoked two pitches. One took Peñ to the wall in left-center, the other was a laser shot right at Dunn.

Bold and reckless prediction not based on statistics: Greene will hit 20-25 homers next year. He is a very strong young kid who is still learning to hit at the big-league level. His approach at the plate is so far beyond what I’d expected at this stage. His batting average is right at what I thought would be his best-case scenario, but his plate discipline and power are better than I’d figured they’d be. Sure, Greene is striking out a lot, but he’s also walking a lot and hitting a ton of extra base hits. It also seems like he makes adjustments better than a lot of players with so little experience at the highest level. Check this out:

       AB   BA  OBP  SLG  ISO XB/H BB/PA*
Apr    79 .304 .368 .456 .152 .417  .081
May    91 .220 .308 .319 .099 .250  .108
Jun    84 .262 .340 .381 .119 .273  .097
Jul    81 .272 .374 .444 .172 .364  .138
Aug**  55 .255 .328 .491 .236 .500  .083

*For our purposes, PA is AB + BB.
**Through games of August 15, 2004.

Interesting to watch. The stats correlate pretty well to visual observations. Greene started out hot, the league came up with a "book" on him (breaking balls off the plate), Greene made the adjustment and started driving the ball. I don’t know how much of a batting average he’ll end up hitting for (although I’m starting to realize that you don’t rule anything out with Greene), but I believe he’s just scratching the surface of his overall offensive potential. The comparisons to Rich Aurilia are looking pretty good to me right now. Here are the numbers posted in each of their first full season:

        Age  AB   BA  OBP  SLG  ISO XB/H BB/PA*
Aurilia  26 413 .266 .319 .407 .141 .345  .070
Greene** 24 385 .262 .345 .413 .151 .356  .105

*For our purposes, PA is AB + BB.
**Through games of August 15, 2004.

Finally, let’s take a quick look at Greene this year vs his minor-league record:

           AB   BA  OBP  SLG  ISO XB/H BB/PA*
minors    768 .290 .349 .444 .154 .318  .065
majors**  385 .262 .345 .413 .151 .356  .105

*For our purposes, PA is AB + BB.
**Through games of August 15, 2004.

I don’t want to overhype the kid or jinx him, but frankly, he wasn’t supposed to provide this much offense right away. His batting average has dropped a little in the Show, but his power numbers have held and his plate discipline has actually improved. And of course, his defense is way better than advertised.

More Nevin

One story that shouldn’t be missed is that of Phil Nevin catching the final four innings of Sunday’s game. With Ramon Hernandez unavailable due to the birth of he and his wife’s second child, Dave Hansen was listed as the emergency catcher in case something happened to Miguel Ojeda. Sure enough, Ojeda was plunked on the left wrist by a fastball in the top of the sixth and couldn’t continue behind the plate. But instead of Hansen, it was Phil Nevin who strapped on the gear and finished the game. It was Nevin’s first time catching in a big-league game in over five years.

Nevin has (deservedly) taken a lot of heat recently for opening his mouth at inopportune times, but if anyone needed a reminder of his desire and his value to the Padres, his actions in Sunday’s game sure helped. That was leadership. That was getting the job done.

Other Stuff

• Speedy Guzman is on fast track to big leagues (NC Times). Talk is heating up that Freddy Guzman could be up and starting in center field with the big club as early as this week. Elsinore batting coach Mike Davis, compares Guzman favorably to Davis’ former teammate, Rickey Henderson. I’ve seen Guzman play a handful of times, and he strikes me as more in the mold of guys like Luis Castillo, Juan Pierre, and Alex Sanchez.
• Padres like look of Bevos, darn it (Portland Tribune). Towers talks about some of the guys currently at Portland.
• Conversation with Beavers Pitching Coach Tom Brown (PDX Beavers). Interesting stuff. On Dennis Tankersley: "…He’s not an impact guy. But he is an everyday big league pitcher, he just needs a chance." Brown also has some encouraging words about former first-round pick Mike Bynum and his chances as a reliever.

That’s all for now. Braves in town for three. Sterling Hitchcock vs Mike Hampton tonight; usual channel, usual time. Three-way tie for the wild card. Let’s see if we can keep the heat on the Giants and Cubbies…