I’m a little concerned about Tim Stauffer’s workload this season. The obvious reason for this, which I mention in my latest at Baseball Prospectus ($) — it’s about that bizarre walkoff walk/protest game between the Padres and Diamondbacks this past Saturday — is that Stauffer has been a completely different pitcher down the stretch than he was earlier in the year.
For much of the season, Stauffer has been one of the few bright spots on this team, showing that his 2010 performance was no fluke, while also helping to remove any lingering doubts about his ability to pitch at this level and stay healthy. Then he started getting pounded:
Dates GS BF IP ERA H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 3/31-8/3 23 597 143.0 2.96 8.7 0.5 2.5 6.5 8/8-9/10 7 157 36.0 7.50 9.5 3.0 3.5 4.5
Opponents were hitting .258/.316/.376 against Stauffer through his August 6 start against the Dodgers. Since then, they have hit .271/.340/.579. That is roughly the difference between Jerry Hairston Jr. and Juan Gonzalez.
Stauffer says he feels fine, and after all he’s been through, he should know. At the same time, these numbers tell the tale of a guy missing badly with location, which is not Stauffer’s game. His stuff is good, certainly better than it was when he first arrived in 2005, but not good enough that he can get away with substandard command.
Stauffer has set career highs in games started, batters faced, and innings pitched this year. In fact, he has made as many starts in 2011 as he did from 2008 to 2010 combined. Here’s a look at his complete yearly workload numbers, including minor leagues:
Year Age GS BF IP 2004 22 28 694 168.0 2005 23 27 687 136.1 2006 24 27 724 159.0 2007 25 22 617 138.1 2008 26 0 0 0.0 2009 27 18 490 115.0 2010 28 12 411 100.1 2011 29 30 754 179.0
I don’t happen to believe in a certain “effect” named for a certain sportswriter who has a theory about such things, but I do wonder if maybe Stauffer has run out of gas. Between his usage pattern over the past few years and his complete loss of effectiveness in recent weeks, it’s difficult to reach any other conclusion.
If it were my call, I’d thank Stauffer for his efforts, explain that he’s done nothing wrong, and sit him down for the rest of the year. He isn’t helping the team, nor is he helping himself. Sitting Stauffer has the added benefit of giving Anthony Bass, who should be a legitimate contender for a spot in next year’s rotation, a chance to show what he can do in that role.
But it isn’t my call, so like you, I watch and wait… and hope the Padres do the right thing.
Not directly related to the post, so sorry.
To date myself, Ross Perot was just a bit early in prognostication of a “giant sucking sound” of jobs going to Mexico if we passed NAFTA. That sound now eminates from San Diego, not Mexico, and is my joy of watching this team being pulled down into this giant vortex of suckitude, fueled by Jed’s dabbling with others’ cast-offs. I think I am ready to label Jed’s sludge merchanting pretty darn bad. I sure hope he knows what he is doing when it comes to prospects.
Stuaffer has been part of the vortex, too, but remains one of my favorite Padres, so here is to hoping some good rest will bring back our Timmy.
Great analysis Geoff. I was thinking the same thing. Only question is, with 3 weeks left can they stretch out Bass enough to give him a start? Or should they just throw him in with a pitch count for three tries?
I agree with your analysis and conclusion that Stauffer should get shut down, or relegated to bullpen work. I am not worried about this considering he has not thrown more than 115 innings in the last 3 years. Same kind of thing happened to Latos last year. If Stauffer does the right conditioning in the offseason, he should be able to bounce back and give 180 effective innings next year instead of 140.
the Padres can easily start Bass and Stauffer on the same day with Bass starting the game. plenty of other arms in the bullpen for long work. why not start a couple of the bullpen arms and replace with the starters. for instance, LeBlanc is more effective when he’s throwing early in games. instead of having him pitch the first 5 innings, let a bullpen arm or two start the games to get the first 5-6 outs and then bring in LeBlanc and see how far he can go.
Moving on to the next round: