My latest at Baseball Prospectus (free) examines San Francisco’s outstanding record (27-13 at time of publication) in one-run games this year. Bruce Bochy’s Giants aren’t historically great in that regard (current winning percentage of .675 would place them in a tie for 35th place all-time), but they’re pretty darned good.
Bochy, in fact, has enjoyed remarkable success in one-run games throughout his career with the Padres and the Giants. In about 800 one-run games, his teams own a .546 winning percentage. In nearly 1,900 other games, that number is .478.
Could be luck, could be something else. Either way, it’s impressive…
OT … they didn’t have a “parade” in Cooperstown in 2007 for Gwynn/Ripken, did they?
Check out what Roberto did …
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/What-the-heck-Roberto-Alomar-takes-fan-8217-s-?urn=mlb-wp13874
… oops???
OT … Justin Germano in the news …
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110726&content_id=22339688&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb
… good for him!
Strange question: does anyone know of a (preferably) Excel based playoff odds calculator? I’m looking for something that lets you input the standings, number of total games for the league, and the number of teams that qualify for the playoffs – and then it would spit out the playoff percentage odds for each team. Seems like it could be fairly simple to create, but when I took a peek around the web I didn’t see any such thing. Maybe I’m searching for the incorrect keywords though…
Thanks, any help much appreciated.
OT – Rizzo with back-to-back multi-hit games …
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=g_box&gid=2011_07_26_cspaaa_tucaaa_1
… both of which include an HR.
dts – an Excel-based calculator sounds like a lot of work to enter hypothetical data … for real data, just go here …
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/
@DTS
Baseball Prospectus has a playoff odds report. Not a calculator, you can’t edit the values.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/
The comments show some possible systemic issues that are well beyond my brain. It’s worth noting, in a sadomasochistic way, that the Padres had a better than 90% chance in September 2007 and 2010 and still missed.
Thanks for the tips and those are great resources. Clay Davenport has one on his site as well.
Im looking for one I can apply to a local softball league for which I serve on the board of directors…
@DTS – you could try asking the people at baseballprospectus if they would be willing to let you know how they put one together and then do it yourself.