Thursday Links (2 Jun 11)

Too much day job… these have been gathering dust for a while, so you’ll have plenty to read while I’m off doing… you don’t even want to know…

  • Where did the leadoff monsters go? (SweetSpot). Christina Kahrl asks a compelling question.
  • The Offensive Downturn and Our Perceptions (Platoon Advantage). Cameron Maybin and Dustin Moseley make appearances here. Speaking of Maybin, he has landed on the DL (right knee inflammation), replaced on the roster by Aaron Cunningham. Speaking of Cunningham… and Moseley
  • The Annotated WARP Leaders (Baseball Prospectus). This is a fun list, despite an absence of Padres.
  • Answers from a Sabermetrician, Part 1 (Baseball Prospectus). Tom Tango speaks. I hate the phrase “must-read” but it applies here. The stuff on lineup optimization and bullpen usage is fascinating. Money quote:

    The best way to set up your batting order is to put it in the optimal order (which means you have to have different batting lineups based on pitcher handedness), and then tweak it based on the ego of the players, because human impact is more important than leveraging two runs.

  • Answers from a Sabermetrician, Part 2 (Baseball Prospectus). More gold:

    Another disheartening thing was the proof-reading… It was a disaster… when I see people complaining about typos in BPro and other books, I just shake my head, because I will never criticize someone for that.

    I used to edit and proofread articles for scientific journals. Seriously, if you haven’t done this sort of thing for a living, it’s difficult to appreciate how demanding and — in a certain sense — utterly hopeless it is.

  • Five trades that need to be made (SweetSpot). Mike Adams to the Tigers for Francisco Martinez? Why would the Padres trade one of their best players for a minor-league third baseman? Third base is an area (perhaps the only area) of organizational strength. FanGraphs also lists Adams as a possible trade target, but I have yet to see a satisfying explanation for why the Padres would want to move him unless someone is willing to overpay… which is possible.
  • John Harper’s Hypocrisy (Platoon Advantage). In which it is fair for some people to cry “steroids” but not others…
  • Top 50 prospects of the draft era (SweetSpot). A couple of Padres draftees (Kevin McReynolds, Mike Ivie) make the cut, as do a few others who played in San Diego: Jack Clark, Gary Sheffield, Mark Prior, Stephen Strasburg. [h/t reader Didi]
  • MLB Rewind: Dallas Buck released, and updates on several former Portland Beavers (The Oregonian). I don’t know who Buck is, but the rest of this is about guys who play(ed) in the Padres organization.
  • Minor Thoughts- Cody Decker: Closed For Repairs (Tree). Decker discusses his ankle injury and makes Karate Kid references.
  • Spring in Padres camp pays benefits for RHP Bass (U-T). As I said the other day on Twitter, “I like that [Anthony] Bass’ K/9 has improved on moving up a level, to a league with a lower overall K/9.”
  • My Major Love of the Minors (Hollywood Hippie). Never mind that she’s a Yankees fan, she gets to watch the San Antonio Missions in action and is seriously on the Free Kyle Blanks train.
  • U Got the Look: Fielding, Part II (Baseball Prospectus). Jason Parks talks defense.
  • Padres cutting back on tweeting (U-T). Orlando Hudson wins the award for best unintentional irony: “I don’t like talking to people. I don’t even like phoning my wife every day.” First off, if you’ve ever seen Hudson in action, you know that he is a chatterbox. Second, I hope his wife doesn’t read the paper.
  • At home with the Cansecos (Yuma Sun). Wait, Jose Canseco manages a baseball team in Yuma and I missed it? I was just there! Oops, forgot… I don’t care.
  • Joakim Soria pulled from closer’s role after taking fifth blown save (Hardball Talk). The former Padres farmhand is struggling. Joe Posnanski offes his thoughts.
  • 2011 wOBA: By Batting Order (FanGraphs). So, hey, our no. 6 hitters rock.

That’s enough for now. It’s not like there isn’t an endless supply these days…

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37 Responses »

  1. The appeal of an Adams trade for the Padres is that he’s less expensive and isn’t a free agent at the end of the year, like other relievers on this team. I wouldn’t mind trading Bell straight up for a prospect (like, say, Jurickson Profar) but Adams would require a real bounty. I would expect a solid prospect (maybe not a great one) and a big league player for Adams, which has to be enticing.

  2. Would the Rangers really give up Profar for Bell? If so, I’d do that in a heartbeat.

  3. Why would the Rangers make that trade?

    Unfortunately, I don’t see Ludwick, Bell, or Adams, etc bringing that type of a return.

  4. @Ray that trade seems bad for both teams at the moment, it may end up helping the Padres significantly in the long run but that’s a long way off and the Padres are looking for player that can be in Petco within the next year or two. However, I don’t see the Rangers parting with possibly an all-star caliber shortstop for a one year rental.

  5. One good thing about getting swept by the Mariners — it tightened the AL West, which puts pressure on all those teams to upgrade.

    Draft talk? Anyone? Where’s Friberg!

  6. @Steve C Who says the Padres are looking at players who can be in PETCO in the next couple of years? The Adrian trade focused on shoring up the system and I don’t think it’s so far back that the team would make specifications like that.

  7. @ray and parlo – I would think Bell for Profar would make perfect sense… fits an org need for the Padres and last I checked the Rangers had Elvis and Kinsler in their middle infield.

    @tom – I am hoping the Padres take Jungmann, Springer, or Mahtook with the first pick. I would also love to see a bunch of high upside highschool pitchers. The Padres system is loaded with middle and back end rotation picthers but lacks top end talent, save for maybe Sampson.

  8. TW: Draft! Yes!

    BA has the Padres taking Matt Barnes (college SP) at 10 and Brian Goodwin (junior college OF) at 25. Keith Law has them taking Cory Spangenberg (JC 3B – may move to CF) at 10 and Dillon Howard (high school P) at 25. Sonny Gray and Taylor Jungmann (both college SP) are a couple other names that have been attached to the Padres. Spangenberg seems like a signability pick at the unprotected slot, but the other names aren’t, which is encouraging. Law thinks they’re willing to go for upside and over slot with the second pick, mentioning some high school pitchers with big bonus demands, also encouraging.

    So that’s what the experts think will happen. What do we want to happen? I think I like Gray most of the first pick names and don’t really know for the second pick. Like PadresFuture, I’d like to see some upside and above slot deals.

  9. @Ray – That trade brought the Padres 2 players that could end up being in Petco this season. Rizzo is MLB ready now and Kelly is a possible Sept call up.

  10. Spangenberg’s offense does not look that thrilling to me as an outfielder, although the way these things work, he could turn out a Hall of Famer. The college arms offer a lot of upside and in most cases sign for near-slot.


    There seem to be a lot of questions about Springer’s bat. We may have to draft relatively more position players since good-hitting free agents won’t come to SD, but when there’s a flag on the most important tool….

    @Ben B.

    I like Gray, too. He seems to have lost some momentum.

  11. Thanks so much for linking my blog!! MUCH appreciated :)

    Gotta go! My train’s here…next stop San Diego!


    The Hollywood Hippie ;)

    p.s. – I live tweet the San Antonio Missions game if any of your readers are interested.

  12. @tom – I have been warming to Mahtook over Springer lately. Would love to see mahtook fall to 25, but I doubt it. The Padres will likely go Barnes/Gray/Jungmann at # 10. Jungmann is my bet as he will move fast and is a safe pick, he doesnt have the upside of the others but should be a solid middle of the rotation player. I am thinking at 25 they will go overslot.

  13. I have to say, being new to this site, the level of discourse here makes Gaslamp Ball seem like the remedial classes at a middle school for troubled students.

  14. @sammy – Yeah, nice to be able to debate and discuss without name calling. Geoff runs an interesting site.

  15. @Steve C Sure, but the Red Sox had immediate impact guys that Hoyer could’ve targeted. It’s not as if we’re the Royals and we’ve got a grade A system that’s ready to produce. And on a personal level, I feel like this team has been focusing on good players who are close over great players who are further away for too long. Patience was never one of Towers’ strong suits and that’s part of the reason why the organization is in the state it’s in.

  16. @TW et al.: Love the draft chatter. I haven’t been able to follow as closely as I’d like this year, so please edumacate me.

    @The Hollywood Hippie: Thanks for stopping by and saying hey. Go Missions!

    @Sammy @PadresFuture: Glad y’all found us. Thanks for being a part of it.

  17. @GY

    Hell, I was hoping you could fill me in. This year I know the top college pitchers, a couple of college bats, and Lindor, who I don’t want and will therefore probably have a HoF career.

  18. @Ray When you have a $40 Mil payroll and a so-so farm system, you have to look to trade for players that are MLB ready (or at least close to it) that are cheap and controllable to fill holes on the team for the next upcoming season. The Padres have imdeate pressing needs in the rotation, at C (backup) in the MIF and potentially at the corner OF spots (depends on how Cunningham, Hunter and Tekotte work out). At this point the Padres have to be worried about thier MLB roster next season not thier 2014 roster.

  19. Dallas Buck! He’s my favorite college pitcher of all time! I was at his debut @ Oregon St … one of only a couple dozen in the stands that sunny but cold February afternoon in Corvallis …snow from a couple of days before still literally on the ground outside the stadium and on nearby Mary’s Peak. I caught a foul ball … was asked to throw it back … did so over the net, right into the catcher’s might … but I digress :-)

    Dallas Buck was a stud! He was the Beavers #1 right from that first start … imo, he was the foundation of their run to back-to-back national championships. Sure, Darwin Barney (whom y’all know now ’cause he’s playing well for Cubs) and Mitch Canham (still toiling in the A’s org after being drafted by the Padres) were the everyday stars, but it was knowing that you’d get a W on Friday that made it clear they were a special team destined to go far into each postseason.

    And, as good as Dallas was, I never had the sense that he’d survive the workload he shouldered … it was clear he was “all in” … and it was a glorious run!

    I was very fortunate to be in a special place during a special time and at a time in my life where I could invest in being a fan and was able to see what was brewing, what was developing. I was able to go to many regular season games … and all their Regionals and Super Regionals games … only regret is that I didn’t invest in a trip to Omaha … I’ve heard that’s a unique baseball experience. But I did enjoy those games on the radio … and the Beavers have an *excellent* radio announcer, Mike Parker … he’s very good at football and basketball … but you could tell his passion was for baseball … and I *love* listening to baseball on the radio!

    Go Beavs!

    (so, thanks for that link!)