After Tuesday night’s thrashing at the hands of the Atlanta Braves, the Padres are proud owners of a 9-15 record, tied with “natural rival” Seattle for worst in MLB. They are 4-10 at Petco Park… so much for home field advantage (nothing new for the Padres, in fact, but that’s a story for another day). Speaking of which, this is curious:
IP ERA BA OBP SLG HR Home 136.0 3.31 .233 .305 .355 12 Away 90.2 2.78 .238 .283 .318 5
Small sample, but this isn’t supposed to happen. Petco is known to suppress offense… which, if you are the Padres, it still does:
PA BA OBP SLG HR Home 536 .200 .280 .296 6 Away 395 .226 .310 .344 8
Then again, it may be more a case of the Padres’ offense suppressing offense. Much as we might like, we can’t pin everything on Brad Hawpe. Don’t get me wrong, he’s been terrible at Petco Park, but so has everyone not named Nick Hundley (.262/.360/.476), Orlando Hudson (.294/.357/.392), and Cameron Maybin (.245/.339/.408).
Again, these are early returns, but I like that Hundley and Maybin are doing (relatively) well at home. They should be a part of the future, and you want guys like that to be comfortable in their home ballpark. Note Hundley’s career splits:
PA BA OBP SLG HR BB SO Home 437 .258 .331 .448 17 44 98 Away 462 .236 .284 .367 7 28 116
I’ve included BB and SO to illustrate how different his approach is away from Petco Park. Not that this a fair comparison, but as a reference point, consider how Adrian Gonzalez did at Petco:
PA BA OBP SLG HR PA/HR Hundley 437 .258 .331 .448 17 27.51 Gonzalez 1650 .267 .367 .442 57 28.95
I didn’t expect to find that Hundley hits homers more frequently at home than Gonzalez did…
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At some point, after the pizza (Filippi’s is the official vendor this year, which means it’s worth buying) and beer were gone, I got bored and tossed a suggestion out to the Twitterverse: “New 1B idea: Talk Tim Hyers out of retirement.” This, I am pleased to report, spawned a litany of mostly forgotten and forgettable names:
- Phil Stephenson [h/t WonkoSD]
- Dave Staton [h/t jorgearangure]
- Guillermo Velasquez [h/t texpadres]
It was great fun, in a gee-I-wish-we-weren’t-getting-our-brains-bashed-in-and-could-talk-about-the-game kind of way.
The Padres were down, 5-1, at the time and I threatened to watch reruns of “Full House.” Then ex-Padre David Ross launched a three-run homer, his second big fly of the night, and nothing seemed funny anymore.
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On the bright side (there is always a bright side), we got to see Evan Scribner make his big-league debut. I understand now why Kevin Towers was able to pry him away from Arizona for the last remnants of Tony Clark’s career. Scribner’s fastball checked in at 87-89 mph on Tuesday, which doesn’t excite folks.
That said, a 2.71 ERA over 259 minor-league innings speaks volumes, as does the fact that he has fanned 30% of all batters he has faced as a professional. Plus, he has this goofy-ass curve ball that was clocked at 68-71 mph… not quite Livan Hernandez territory but fun.
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I listened to parts of San Antonio’s 6-5 victory over Frisco. Wolff Stadium is an extreme pitchers’ park, nearly as extreme as Petco Park. I don’t have the most recent numbers handy, but here are their respective park factors from 2006 to 2008 (courtesy of Baseball Prospectus 2009):
2006 2007 2008 Wolff Stadium 925 925 934 Petco Park 917 907 903
It therefore comes as a surprise to see the Missions completely dominating the Texas League. They are averaging 7.89 runs per game in a league that averages 5.39 and whose second best offense (Midland, which plays in a bandbox) is averaging 5.56.
As a team, they are hitting .332/.415/.603 and account for nearly half of the Padres farm system’s home runs:
PA HR Missions 760 35 Others 2204 36
It’s a little ridiculous. Anyway, I listened to parts of the game, and there are a few things you should know…
James Darnell went 1-for-3 with a homer and a walk. His other two at-bats? In the sixth, he drove a 2-0 offering to the warning track in center field (the radio announcers called it “Death Valley”). In the eighth, he struck out looking at a 2-2 breaking ball on the outside corner — the seventh pitch of the at-bat; the previous pitch was an inside fastball that he pulled down the left field line and hooked just foul.
Someone suggested that Darnell didn’t like his assignment and is taking it out on the entire league. It sure seems that way.
The game featured a bizarre ending. San Antonio closer Brad Brach, nursing a 6-4 lead, served up an apparent go-ahead three-run home run to Michael Bianucci with two out in the ninth. After conferring, the umpires later reversed their call and gave Bianucci a ground-rule double, putting runners at second and third.
Frisco manager Steve Buechele was ejected for arguing the call. Brach then struck out Tommy Mendonca on three pitches to end the game, at which point things got ugly, with fans and Frisco players mixing it up a bit.
Also, Kyle Blanks got another start at first base. He went 1-for-4, the one hit being a triple down the left field line in the eighth.
People keep asking me about Anthony Rizzo, and with good reason — the guy is raking at Tucson. But as I said the other day at Baseball Prospectus, “Given the attention focused on him as a key component in the Adrian Gonzalez trade, this can’t be a 17-game experiment.”
The San Francisco Giants, in case you missed it, gave their first base phenom, Brandon Belt, 17 games to prove himself at the big-league level before sending him back to the PCL. I’m fine with the Giants doing that; in fact, I encourage it. But I’d just as soon not see the Padres waffle.
Blanks is nearing the end of his rehab assignment. Assuming he holds up physically, I’d like to see him get first crack at the job. Rizzo is almost certainly the guy long term but there’s no need to rush the kid. I’d prefer not to see him up before the All-Star break. Meanwhile, maybe Blanks can come up and establish trade value.
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At the risk of overstaying my welcome, here are some links:
- Anibal Sanchez nearly pitches the FIFTH no-hitter in Marlins history (Baseball-Reference). How is it that the Marlins have four no-nos against NL West teams and the Padres, who play in the freaking division, have none? Don’t even get me started on World Championships…
- Crazy ’86: Last pitcher to hit walk-off HR (SweetSpot). Mark Simon gives us more details about the Craig Lefferts walk-off homer, complete with recollections from Lefferts himself. Very cool.
- How to Speak Sabermetrics to a Mainstream Audience (FanGraphs). From the article: “Focus on Concepts, Not Stats.” This times a thousand. Nobody cares about your stupid hammer, they just want assurance that the nails will stay in the wall.
- Teams seek solutions to declining crowds (Yahoo!). The Padres’ numbers are up so far this year. Bear in mind that their numbers were terrible last year. Also, Opening Day and an early series against the Dodgers represent a disproportionate percentage of all home dates thus far. Revisit this after the Pirates have come to town. [h/t reader LynchMob]
- Before Manny Became Manny (New York Times). I know, everyone is tired of Manny Ramirez, but this is worth reading [h/t BBTF]:
I had gone up to Washington Heights to check in on Manny’s former high school teammates. I found eight of them watching the first game of the series in the basement of a bodega near Manny’s old apartment. They sat on milk crates, glued to a 19-inch color television wedged on a shelf between cans of evaporated coconut milk and beans and bags of rice.
- Clement toils while ’05 draft mates shine (FOX Sports). Cesar Carrillo sends his condolences… [h/t BBTF]
- Cameron Maybin: Already Worth It? (FanGraphs). Eno Sarris discusses Maybin’s defensive statistics, which perhaps don’t do him justice. Sarris’ conclusion:
As long as he can keep his wOBA above average by flashing his considerable athletic assets and avoiding pitches outside the zone, his glove looks like it will make him worth far more than the two arms it took to get him.
To which I add, Yup.
- Chainsaw: The Enemy Within (619 Sports). From Chainsaw Randolph’s latest:
Having watched games at over 20 major league ballparks from coast to coast, I can safely claim the fans of Padres opponents make more noise than at any other stadium.
Welcome to San Diego; make yourselves at home. The pizza may not be as good as it was where you came from, but at least the weather is nice. Be sure to make lots of Anchorman references. One day, they will be funny.
- Hundley stands out on Padres’ ASG ballot (Padres.com). Those of you who do the All-Star Game thing may find this interesting.
- Padres uniform history: The final vote! (SweetSpot). The correct answer is 1975, but it’s your call.
- Cracking the Scouting Code (Baseball Prospectus). Ever wonder about the 20-80 scale scouts use? Jeremy Greenhouse fills in the details.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/fangraphs-live-at-sabr41-in-la/
I’m curious, has anything ever been addressed about the Musical Lineup that Bud Black uses? There is no consistency to anything the Padres are doing offensively. They won Monday, so of course it makes sense to change the lineup completely around Tuesday.
Most of the people Black tries to fit in the lineup will be out of baseball once they’re released from the Padres. Career .200 hitters aren’t in that much of a demand.
But as someone said, the Padres definitely should trade Venable. Who wants a potential 20-20 player. Bud Black obviously doesn’t, let another team have him so he can flourish like the rest of the Padre castoffs.
interesting read:
http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post?id=9687
Hey, the Mets have NEVER had a no-hitter. When they had Seaver, it got to be comical how close he would come only to be denied. I saw Leron Lee break up a July 4, 1972, effort against the Padres with one out in the ninth. How could Nolan Ryan throw seven of the things and Seaver, who was a FAR better pitcher, none? No-hitters simply have no logic.
I totally agree that it makes no sense to bring Rizzo up now. Money considerations matter more to the Padres than to most franchises but even ignoring the super-two factor, it’s ridiculous to expect a rookie to turn around an offense as bad as the one the Padres are trotting out there. It’s far more likely that bringing him in with that expectation will have the opposite effect and shut HIM down too. The hitters simply aren’t as bad as they’re looking now, even Hawpe. When they’ve begun to straighten out, as they will, THEN bring in fresh troops.
What we’re seeing is largely the effect of luck turning. What, you thought walkoff homers by Jerry Hairston were the normal order of things? If the pitching stays as solid as it has (a huge if), the Padres will be above .500 by the All-Star break.
@Ben, given Einstein’s definition of insanity, why exactly would Bud Black want to keep putting the exact same group of hitters out there every night?
Ugly game, glad its such a nice day.
Pepe Negro has to put out the same hitters out there because they are what he got on the team.
Hawpe sucks again today but even with his error that cost 2 runs, Latos then served up a single, a triple and a double to let in 3 more runs. It’s a group effort.
Hawpe should just sit down for a week and hit off the tee for a while. His glove isn’t going to improve but his hitting has to for him to have a job. I don’t mind seeing Cantu (Can’t U?) play 1B for a week and see what he got.
Latos in the meantime needs to cool down.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/adams-continues-to-dominate/
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/hawpe-loney-johnson-cut-your-1b-losses/
Great post. The Padres sure had their share of forgettable players pass through the ranks over the years. Admittedly I thought Dave Staton was gonna be huge. And Phil Stephenson had a few good games at the end of ’89. I was excited when he got more playing time in 1990, until I saw the results!
Anyone remember Shawn Abner?
Crickets? (hopefully)
I remember Shawn Abner very well. He homered of off Doc Gooden at the Murph. How about Rob Nelson?? Anybody??
I remember Rob Nelson … but not because he played for the Padres.
I started playing roto in 1984 … in the spring of 1987, my Dad went to an A’s spring game and called me with a “scouting report” … he said “I know he’s not starting, but this Mark McGuire kid sure looks good” … hard to believe that Rob Nelson beat out Mark McGuire for the A’s starting 1B-man job … not hard to believe that it only lasted 7 games
It’s good to know that Randy Ready knows a problem when he sees it …
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2011/apr/27/padres-thatcher-scheduled-surgery/
During the 1-6 homestand the Padres were 3-for-41 (.073) with runners in scoring position. In three games against the Braves, they were 1-for-25 (.040).
“Needless to say,” said hitting coach Randy Ready earlier in the week, “we’ve got to do a better job.”