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	<title>Comments on: Hey, I Can See the Off-Season from Here</title>
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		<title>By: Pat</title>
		<link>http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2009/09/hey-i-can-see-the-off-season-from-here.html/comment-page-1#comment-366012</link>
		<dc:creator>Pat</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 28 Sep 2009 05:38:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ducksnorts.com/blog/?p=3278#comment-366012</guid>
		<description>Speaking of exciting young players, Jaff Decker led the Midwest League in OPS by about 30 points!  At 19!!  The only other two players over .900 were 23 and 21!!!  Man, I hope I get to see him play at Elsinore next year!

I was also looking at pitching prospects, for obvious reasons, and was pleased to see what appear to be good young arms at Low A, High A and AA.  Other than Leblanc, who we already know about, there is not much which looks to be ready to help next season, but there were a whole bunch of guys in the lower minors with excellent K rates and several of them had good K/BB rates to go along with the high K rate.

Hopefully this signals a recognition on the organizations part that soft tossing guys with command are not the only sort of pitcher out there worth developing.  More guys like Matt Latos who have power and an ability to strike out the side are important to big league success!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Speaking of exciting young players, Jaff Decker led the Midwest League in OPS by about 30 points!  At 19!!  The only other two players over .900 were 23 and 21!!!  Man, I hope I get to see him play at Elsinore next year!</p>
<p>I was also looking at pitching prospects, for obvious reasons, and was pleased to see what appear to be good young arms at Low A, High A and AA.  Other than Leblanc, who we already know about, there is not much which looks to be ready to help next season, but there were a whole bunch of guys in the lower minors with excellent K rates and several of them had good K/BB rates to go along with the high K rate.</p>
<p>Hopefully this signals a recognition on the organizations part that soft tossing guys with command are not the only sort of pitcher out there worth developing.  More guys like Matt Latos who have power and an ability to strike out the side are important to big league success!</p>
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		<title>By: Pat</title>
		<link>http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2009/09/hey-i-can-see-the-off-season-from-here.html/comment-page-1#comment-366008</link>
		<dc:creator>Pat</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 28 Sep 2009 05:28:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ducksnorts.com/blog/?p=3278#comment-366008</guid>
		<description>#7@&lt;a href=&quot;#comment-365856&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Ben B.&lt;/a&gt;: Yeah, Ben, I&#039;ve been tracking that offensive OPS+ all year long and it finally got up to league average in August. I was curious because I still remember talking about the offense, pitching and Petco effects before the season with some folks here at DS. I thought the offense would be average or a litlle better, though it is masked by Petco, which is why using OPS+ would be helpful for taking park factor into account, but the pitching would be horrendous.

Headley and Kouz were so brutal early on, not to mention Giles and various other positions struggling, that it took them over half the season to get to average, but they finally did.  And the pitching has been horrendous (with some bright spots, admittedly :-).

I&#039;m really looking forward to next year and seeing an OF of Blanks, Gwynn (I know, Geoff, not so much looking forward to Gwynn, but we&#039;ll see what plays out :-) and Venable.  Heck, maybe we&#039;ll see Headley, Venable and Blanks in RF.  Who knows?  

But those young guys are exciting and Cabrera is more than exciting!  How many 22 year old SS make the jump from A ball to the bigs and put up league average offense, steal a bunch of bags at a high success rate and play solid to plus D?  Not many!!!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#7@<a href="#comment-365856" rel="nofollow">Ben B.</a>: Yeah, Ben, I&#8217;ve been tracking that offensive OPS+ all year long and it finally got up to league average in August. I was curious because I still remember talking about the offense, pitching and Petco effects before the season with some folks here at DS. I thought the offense would be average or a litlle better, though it is masked by Petco, which is why using OPS+ would be helpful for taking park factor into account, but the pitching would be horrendous.</p>
<p>Headley and Kouz were so brutal early on, not to mention Giles and various other positions struggling, that it took them over half the season to get to average, but they finally did.  And the pitching has been horrendous (with some bright spots, admittedly <img src='http://ducksnorts.com/blog/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':-)' class='wp-smiley' /> .</p>
<p>I&#8217;m really looking forward to next year and seeing an OF of Blanks, Gwynn (I know, Geoff, not so much looking forward to Gwynn, but we&#8217;ll see what plays out <img src='http://ducksnorts.com/blog/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':-)' class='wp-smiley' />  and Venable.  Heck, maybe we&#8217;ll see Headley, Venable and Blanks in RF.  Who knows?  </p>
<p>But those young guys are exciting and Cabrera is more than exciting!  How many 22 year old SS make the jump from A ball to the bigs and put up league average offense, steal a bunch of bags at a high success rate and play solid to plus D?  Not many!!!</p>
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		<title>By: Ben B.</title>
		<link>http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2009/09/hey-i-can-see-the-off-season-from-here.html/comment-page-1#comment-365856</link>
		<dc:creator>Ben B.</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Sep 2009 22:27:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ducksnorts.com/blog/?p=3278#comment-365856</guid>
		<description>Hey, did you guys know the Padres&#039; offense has been ok this year?  A 95 OPS+, even.  I was shocked to see that.  Nick Hundley is up to 99, and Everth Cabrera is at 97.  If those guys can sustain that sort of production, that&#039;s a nice development for future Padres teams.  And yeah, Headley has been looking good, and his 105 OPS+ plays well at third base.  Now about that 84 ERA+...

As an ardent defender of Trevor Hoffman (and obviously as a Padre fan), it&#039;s great to see his success with the Brewers this year.  He&#039;s got 49 IP and a 229 ERA+, with 35 saves in 38 opportunities.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hey, did you guys know the Padres&#8217; offense has been ok this year?  A 95 OPS+, even.  I was shocked to see that.  Nick Hundley is up to 99, and Everth Cabrera is at 97.  If those guys can sustain that sort of production, that&#8217;s a nice development for future Padres teams.  And yeah, Headley has been looking good, and his 105 OPS+ plays well at third base.  Now about that 84 ERA+&#8230;</p>
<p>As an ardent defender of Trevor Hoffman (and obviously as a Padre fan), it&#8217;s great to see his success with the Brewers this year.  He&#8217;s got 49 IP and a 229 ERA+, with 35 saves in 38 opportunities.</p>
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		<title>By: Pat</title>
		<link>http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2009/09/hey-i-can-see-the-off-season-from-here.html/comment-page-1#comment-365557</link>
		<dc:creator>Pat</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 23 Sep 2009 06:55:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ducksnorts.com/blog/?p=3278#comment-365557</guid>
		<description>Overbay was actually the guy I was thinking of as a comp as well.  I wouldn&#039;t be surprised, if he stays in Petco, to see him hit between 20-25 in a career year.  On average I think he&#039;ll be lower than that, but that sounds about right as to where he might &quot;top out&quot; in Petco.

Hm, if I weren&#039;t an old USD English major, I would have just said, &quot;I agree.&quot; :-)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Overbay was actually the guy I was thinking of as a comp as well.  I wouldn&#8217;t be surprised, if he stays in Petco, to see him hit between 20-25 in a career year.  On average I think he&#8217;ll be lower than that, but that sounds about right as to where he might &#8220;top out&#8221; in Petco.</p>
<p>Hm, if I weren&#8217;t an old USD English major, I would have just said, &#8220;I agree.&#8221; <img src='http://ducksnorts.com/blog/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':-)' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
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		<title>By: Tom Waits</title>
		<link>http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2009/09/hey-i-can-see-the-off-season-from-here.html/comment-page-1#comment-365483</link>
		<dc:creator>Tom Waits</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 22 Sep 2009 16:46:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ducksnorts.com/blog/?p=3278#comment-365483</guid>
		<description>Headley: He used to get the Bill Mueller comp, which is decent but far from a perfect fit. Headley strikes out way more, but their walk rates are about the same. 

Corey Koskie is my current fave comp. He was consistently in the 115-120 OPS+ range in the AL, against a league average of 100; Chase looks to be headed for the 110 range against a league average of 94. 

There&#039;s been plenty of talk about deciding between Headley and Kouzmanoff, and I&#039;m of the opinion that you move Kouz this winter. The Hardball Times puts Headley second among NL left fielders in both RZR and OOZ plays, but....everybody else thinks he stinks in LF, and there&#039;s a selection bias when you&#039;re being ranked against Soriano, Lee, Ibanez, Anderson, et al. Kouz winning the Gold Glove would be patently unfair, but if it helps us net a better return....I&#039;ll get over it.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Headley: He used to get the Bill Mueller comp, which is decent but far from a perfect fit. Headley strikes out way more, but their walk rates are about the same. </p>
<p>Corey Koskie is my current fave comp. He was consistently in the 115-120 OPS+ range in the AL, against a league average of 100; Chase looks to be headed for the 110 range against a league average of 94. </p>
<p>There&#8217;s been plenty of talk about deciding between Headley and Kouzmanoff, and I&#8217;m of the opinion that you move Kouz this winter. The Hardball Times puts Headley second among NL left fielders in both RZR and OOZ plays, but&#8230;.everybody else thinks he stinks in LF, and there&#8217;s a selection bias when you&#8217;re being ranked against Soriano, Lee, Ibanez, Anderson, et al. Kouz winning the Gold Glove would be patently unfair, but if it helps us net a better return&#8230;.I&#8217;ll get over it.</p>
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		<title>By: Geoff Young</title>
		<link>http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2009/09/hey-i-can-see-the-off-season-from-here.html/comment-page-1#comment-365474</link>
		<dc:creator>Geoff Young</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 22 Sep 2009 14:17:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ducksnorts.com/blog/?p=3278#comment-365474</guid>
		<description>#2@&lt;a href=&quot;#comment-365383&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;TexPadre&lt;/a&gt;, #3@&lt;a href=&quot;#comment-365450&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Pat&lt;/a&gt;: I could see Headley topping out in the 20-25 HR range, but yeah, he&#039;s more of a doubles guy. If he tightens up his strike zone a bit, I&#039;m envisioning a Kevin Millar/Lyle Overbay type of hitter, which is pretty valuable at third base.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>#2@<a href="#comment-365383" rel="nofollow">TexPadre</a>, #3@<a href="#comment-365450" rel="nofollow">Pat</a>: I could see Headley topping out in the 20-25 HR range, but yeah, he&#8217;s more of a doubles guy. If he tightens up his strike zone a bit, I&#8217;m envisioning a Kevin Millar/Lyle Overbay type of hitter, which is pretty valuable at third base.</p>
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		<title>By: Pat</title>
		<link>http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2009/09/hey-i-can-see-the-off-season-from-here.html/comment-page-1#comment-365450</link>
		<dc:creator>Pat</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 22 Sep 2009 08:21:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ducksnorts.com/blog/?p=3278#comment-365450</guid>
		<description>I&#039;m totally stoked at the way the Pads have played the past couple of months. In a recap from last night&#039;s game I read they have won 12 of their past 16 series.  That&#039;s excellent, and they&#039;re doing it with some fresh, young talent, which is very exciting!

On Headley, I&#039;d guess/predict he&#039;ll never develop power in Petco, which is to say any power he does develop will be masked by the park he plays most of his games in.  He&#039;s not going to be Adrian Gonzalez and hit 30-40 HR with fantastic opposite field power.

That being said, he is only 25 and in just his first full season this year and should improve over the next few years.  He is hitting 2B at a good clip.  I&#039;d say he&#039;s more likely to be a guy who hits a high number of 2B without great HR power.  A gap hitter, if you will.

If he can add about 20 points to his BA, hit betweeen 30-40 2B and between 10-20 HR, I&#039;d be very, very happy.  Given he&#039;s hit between 30-40 2B and 10-20 HR already, I&#039;m pretty happy right now.  I guess my final answer is, I don&#039;t expect much of an increase in power from him, but I would hope that he hits for higher average as he matures and gains big league experience.

Oh yeah, and I&#039;d be really, really pumped if he could draw a few more BB.  It could happen.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m totally stoked at the way the Pads have played the past couple of months. In a recap from last night&#8217;s game I read they have won 12 of their past 16 series.  That&#8217;s excellent, and they&#8217;re doing it with some fresh, young talent, which is very exciting!</p>
<p>On Headley, I&#8217;d guess/predict he&#8217;ll never develop power in Petco, which is to say any power he does develop will be masked by the park he plays most of his games in.  He&#8217;s not going to be Adrian Gonzalez and hit 30-40 HR with fantastic opposite field power.</p>
<p>That being said, he is only 25 and in just his first full season this year and should improve over the next few years.  He is hitting 2B at a good clip.  I&#8217;d say he&#8217;s more likely to be a guy who hits a high number of 2B without great HR power.  A gap hitter, if you will.</p>
<p>If he can add about 20 points to his BA, hit betweeen 30-40 2B and between 10-20 HR, I&#8217;d be very, very happy.  Given he&#8217;s hit between 30-40 2B and 10-20 HR already, I&#8217;m pretty happy right now.  I guess my final answer is, I don&#8217;t expect much of an increase in power from him, but I would hope that he hits for higher average as he matures and gains big league experience.</p>
<p>Oh yeah, and I&#8217;d be really, really pumped if he could draw a few more BB.  It could happen.</p>
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		<title>By: TexPadre</title>
		<link>http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2009/09/hey-i-can-see-the-off-season-from-here.html/comment-page-1#comment-365383</link>
		<dc:creator>TexPadre</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 21 Sep 2009 18:36:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ducksnorts.com/blog/?p=3278#comment-365383</guid>
		<description>Always great to read your analysis. When will Chase Headley show a decent amount of power? Or will he ever? 900 PA&#039;s into his MLB career and not much power at all. An overall career slugging % of .400 and 20 home runs in 2 years is disappointing. Many fans and friends in Padres land counter this disappointment by saying that he will eventually come around but I am not so sure. Any opinion? What more or less is the &quot;totally lose patience&quot; cut off as far as at plate appearances?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Always great to read your analysis. When will Chase Headley show a decent amount of power? Or will he ever? 900 PA&#8217;s into his MLB career and not much power at all. An overall career slugging % of .400 and 20 home runs in 2 years is disappointing. Many fans and friends in Padres land counter this disappointment by saying that he will eventually come around but I am not so sure. Any opinion? What more or less is the &#8220;totally lose patience&#8221; cut off as far as at plate appearances?</p>
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		<title>By: DSCopperTop</title>
		<link>http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2009/09/hey-i-can-see-the-off-season-from-here.html/comment-page-1#comment-365371</link>
		<dc:creator>DSCopperTop</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 21 Sep 2009 15:56:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://ducksnorts.com/blog/?p=3278#comment-365371</guid>
		<description>Thanks for coming back, Geoff.  Missed ya.

The only point I noticed you missed is that Blanks hit that crazy Miami home run and swung a lot easier than Ruben Rivera ever did.

I know it means nothing, but I hold a secret hope that Adrian will hit 40 this year.  That will hopefully help eclipse the knowledge that Phil Nevin was the last Padre to reach that plateau, and all reminiscence of his latter-day implosion.

And as for the title, well... it&#039;s bittersweet to end a year like this.  Bitter because it&#039;s hard to let go of baseball, even though it&#039;s the right thing to do.  Sweet because, unless the season lasts another month or two, the Padres won&#039;t see the north side of .500 until (we hope) next April.

It&#039;s at this point that I&#039;ll admit that a week ago, I counted up games remaining, and found that if the Pads went a Rockies-esque 18-3 to end the season, they could finish at .500.  There went that dream, like so much smoke.  On to better things.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thanks for coming back, Geoff.  Missed ya.</p>
<p>The only point I noticed you missed is that Blanks hit that crazy Miami home run and swung a lot easier than Ruben Rivera ever did.</p>
<p>I know it means nothing, but I hold a secret hope that Adrian will hit 40 this year.  That will hopefully help eclipse the knowledge that Phil Nevin was the last Padre to reach that plateau, and all reminiscence of his latter-day implosion.</p>
<p>And as for the title, well&#8230; it&#8217;s bittersweet to end a year like this.  Bitter because it&#8217;s hard to let go of baseball, even though it&#8217;s the right thing to do.  Sweet because, unless the season lasts another month or two, the Padres won&#8217;t see the north side of .500 until (we hope) next April.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s at this point that I&#8217;ll admit that a week ago, I counted up games remaining, and found that if the Pads went a Rockies-esque 18-3 to end the season, they could finish at .500.  There went that dream, like so much smoke.  On to better things.</p>
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