IVIE 2009: Starting Pitchers

I hope you had an excellent weekend. I finally saw Stephen Strasburg pitch on Friday and was not disappointed. Then I watched Team Mexico and Team Korea work out at Petco Park on Saturday in preparation for their WBC games here this week. If you don’t mind dropping $50 for a $19 seat, you might want to get in on that action.

Meanwhile, here at Ducksnorts we are in the midst of our IVIE community projections. So far we’ve done catchers (23 precincts reporting as of this writing), infielders (13 precincts reporting), and outfielders (13 precincts reporting). We could use a little more help on those last two, so if you haven’t yet represented, please head over there and do so before proceeding.

Done? Good. Now we turn to the starting pitchers. This is fugly:

Padres IVIE Projections (Draft) for 2009: Starting Pitchers
Jake Peavy 200 3.01
Chris Young 170 3.84
Cha Seung Baek 160 4.73
Kevin Correia 100 5.09
Josh Geer 60 5.23
Wade LeBlanc 60 5.62

Peavy will do what Peavy does, at least as long as he remains with the Padres. Young should improve on last year’s numbers but he still won’t work a lot of innings. Baek will be the worst #3 starter in MLB.

Then we get to the fun part.

Correia has had moments of utility, although primarily as a reliever. Geer is an injury risk, and even if he stays healthy, he’s likely to get hammered (that 5.6 K/9 ratio in the minors just isn’t working for me). Long term, I like LeBlanc at the back end, but he relies on changing speeds and I expect him to take some serious lumps before establishing himself.

Those are my best guesses. What are yours? Feel free to include projections for others you think might get a shot (Cesar Carrillo, Mark Prior, Cesar Ramos, your aunt Mildred, etc.). We’ll get to the relievers on Thursday.

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15 Responses »

  1. Jake Peavy 210 2.95
    Chris Young 150 3.50
    Cha Seung Baek 190 4.95
    Kevin Correia 80 5.80
    Josh Geer 100 4.95
    Wade LeBlanc 60 5.75
    Cesar Carrillo 45 3.75
    Will Inman 30 3.50

  2. OT … Padres have added Duaner Sanchez and Chris Snelling to the organization … a team’s gotta do what a team’s gotta do …

  3. Peavy 185 3.65 curse of playing in the WBC
    Young 165 3.57
    Seung Baek 149 4.49
    Correia 125 4.35
    Geer 100 4.53
    LeBlanc 50 5.53

  4. Starting Pitchers
    IP ERA
    Jake Peavy 180 3.15
    Chris Young 150 3.50
    Cha Seung Baek 165 4.50
    Kevin Correia 100 4.99
    Josh Geer 60 4.99
    Wade LeBlanc 30 5.62

    Mark Prior 0 0.00

  5. Geoff,

    I will get back to you with my predictions for the pitching staff.

    I do have a bone to pick about Baek though. You said he would be the worst #3 starter in baseball and I think that is a huge stretch.

    Certainly he is better than Matt Harrison, Brandon Backe, Daniel Cabrera, David Purcey and Mark Hendrickson just to name a few.

    His stats were similar to Jon Garland’s and Jeff Suppan’s when you park adjust for playing in Petco.

    In the 2nd half last year he was as good as any of the Dodgers #3-#5 pitchers. He was actually as good as their #2, Kuroda.

    That is about a 3rd of the league that he compares favorably to.

    Baek is certainly not the worst #3 starter in the league.

  6. Jake Peavy 198 IP 3.55 ERA
    Chris Young 170 IP 4.14 ERA
    Cha Seung Baek 180 IP 3.83 ERA
    Kevin Correia 110 IP 4.90 ERA
    Josh Geer 80 IP 5.41 ERA
    Wade LeBlanc 50 IP 6.02 ERA

  7. Oh, Aunt Mildred (for all other starters) 45 IP 4.66 ERA

  8. OT2 … wow, Antonelli went from 180 on draft day to 216 last season? That seems like a lot …


    … he is a big boy … let’s hope this is part of him finding his way to the Padres!

  9. Jake Peavy 210 2.90
    Chris Young 185 3.35
    Cha Seung Baek 190 4.25
    Kevin Correia 160 3.90
    Josh Geer 100 4.75
    Wade LeBlanc 100 5.00

  10. Jake Peavy, 180, 2.85
    Chris Young, 100, 4.15
    Cha Seung Baek, 160, 5.00
    Kevin Correia, 140, 4.80
    Josh Geer, 100, 4.80
    Wade LeBlanc, 70, 4.90

  11. With seven precincts reporting:

    Peavy: 195, 3.15
    Young: 156, 3.72
    Baek: 171, 4.54
    Correia: 116, 4.83
    Geer: 86, 4.95
    LeBlanc: 60, 5.49

  12. According to Corey Brock, Wade LeBlanc got sent down to Minor League camp today and won’t be on the Opening Day roster.


  13. Peavy: 200 3.35
    Young: 200 3.95
    Baek: 170 4.60
    Correia: 160 4.70
    Geer: 80 5.50
    LeBlanc: 70 5.75

  14. Peavy 215 IP 2.55 ERA (he wasn’t at his best last year and he still had a 2.85 ERA)

    Young 186 IP 3.22 ERA

    Baek – 200 IP 4.45 ERA (I have faith that this guy will give the team 20 very good starts this season; however, I think he’ll stink it up at least 8 times)

    Here’s where it gets tricky.

    Correia 45 IP 4.25 ERA (I think he will pitch decent as a starter but the bullpen will be so bad early on that they’ll figure out a nice way to tell him that he’s more useful as a reliever.)

    Geer 72 IP 4.90 ERA (I think he lasts about 12-15 starts before they realize they might as well give someone else a shot)

    Here is the someone else – Ramos, Ryu, LeBlanc, Silva, etc 150 IP 4.77 ERA