Links for 9 Dec 08

I’m a little behind in my links, so some of these might be oldish. Hey, better late than never…

Khalil Greene Trade Reaction

From the Ducksnorts Archives

  • Why the Rumored Nevin for Griffey Deal Made No Sense

    This was in December 2002. Just for the record, here’s how Griffey and another outfielder the Padres actually acquired have fared from 2003 to 2008:

    Brian Giles vs Ken Griffey Jr., 2003 – 2008
      PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ $M
    Statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference.
    Brian Giles 3915 .287 .393 .456 128 53.5
    Ken Griffey Jr. 2774 .267 .355 .503 119 64.7

    Yeah, I know Giles didn’t come to San Diego till the end of ’03 (and neither did they pay most of his salary that year), but you get the idea. Be sure to thank Phil Nevin for exercising his veto power on that one.

New/Updated Blogs in the Blogroll

Go say hi to these folks:

  • TinCaps Blog. The Fort Wayne Wizards are now the Fort Wayne TinCaps, and Lamond Pope has them covered.
  • Raise the Jolly Roger!. It’s all about the Pirates. Aargh!
  • BaseballGB. This site describes itself as a “hub for the best British baseball writing.” I know we’ve got readers here from all over the world, and it’s always great to see folks catch baseball fever regardless of geographic location. Plus, they have really good beer over there; helps make up for the food, I suppose. ;-)

That’s the fact, Jack. More links are available at the Ducksnorts delicious page, which I update as often as practical.

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30 Responses »

  1. But could Griffey have thrown Holliday out at the plate? :-)

  2. I keep seeing this common thread in comments on these links… that Moores is telling them to cut the budgets to devalue the team…

    Gang, it may work that way in our perception as fans: but from a business sense, you are removing liability while not doing much to damage the sale value of the club. Your assets are the ballpark, the franchise, etc. Player contracts are liabilities. Players themselves are employees.

    Dumping salary liability INCREASES the value of the club when viewed from this perspective. A single year of reduced attendance will not have enough relevance to offset that.

  3. So I have a pitcher/money question for some of you…one of the things I keep reading over at mlbtraderumors is that for Peavy to get traded to the Cubs, they need to trade Jason Marquis…there have also been reports that they are willing to eat $6.5mm of his $9mm salary…

    Why wouldn’t we be interested in bringing him to SD for the $2.5mm? Is he under contract for 2010?

  4. Since I’m from Belgium beer is kind of a sensitive point:) I’wouldn’t say that the beer in GB is all that good. If you really want some good beer try Belgian beer. (Sorry for being so chauvinistic but beer is one of the few topics where I can be so chauvinistic about :) )

  5. #2@Rich Campbell: Not entirely accurate, because baseball players, unlike employees in most other fields, are contractually bound to the team. Player contracts are not liabilities, they’re investments. And like most investments, their value can fluctuate. But they’re not simply liabilities. Most players return more to the team than they cost, which is especially true pre-arbitration and free agency, but largely true for free agents as well. That’s no liability.

    That said, I don’t think Moores is reducing the budget in order to devalue the team. I think he’s reducing the budget in order to lower operating costs for the biggest item in his portfolio, to the point that he can pull cash out of the team. If Mrs. Moores’ lawyers thought for one second that he was devaluing their largest piece of community property for nefarious purposes, there’d be a restraining order stapled to the front door of the team’s offices.

    #3@Coronado Mike: I’m sure we would want Marquis at that price; we gotta find 600-700 innings somewhere. But the hangup seems to be how much the Cubs can pay. If they’re only freeing up 2.5 million, that doesn’t help so much with Jake. For one year (his contract expires after 2009), we should consider paying more of that deal if it means access to more talent from the Cubs.

  6. #4@Arne Vergauwen: Arne, it’s not chauvinistic, it’s just the truth. Feel free to brag about your chocolate as well.

  7. #5@Tom Waits: Thanks Rich…it seems the newest reports have them only willing to eat $2-4mm of the contract.

    Thought the note at the end of this was interesting…says that the Twins are interested in Kouz…

    http://blogs2.startribune.com/blogs/neal/2008/12/10/twins-could-play-a-role-in-the-jake-peavy-sweepstakes/

  8. If the Pads would have traded for Griffey is it really a slam dunk that they would have not traded for Giles as well? Both Nevin and Giles played on the team for part of 03, all of 04 and part of 05 so they may have had the payroll to fit in both players.

    Also if you do assume that the Pads would have have traded for Giles you have to factor in that Bay would probably still be our LF and Perez may still be in our rotation.

    OPS +
    2004:
    Griffey 122
    Bay 132

    Giles 128
    Nevin 130

    2005:
    Griffey 144
    Bay 150

    Giles 146
    Nevin 77

    2006:
    Griffey 99
    Bay 138

    Giles 107
    Nevin 93

    Griffey is a superior defender compared to Nevin and out performed him at the plate every year except for 04. Bay out performed Giles at the plate every year and was far far cheaper.

  9. So is the most current rumor JA Happ, Sean Marshall and Garrett Olson as the return for Peavy? I assume that means Vitters is out?

    I don’t know a whole lot about these three pitchers, but I think it’s safe to say they would fill three slots in our rotation immediately. Doing some mild research on their stats, they all look to have performed extremely well at the AAA level.

  10. #5@Tom Waits: I don’t know much about accounting, but aren’t salaries always liabilities? How can a player salary be an investment? They may be a good value or a poor value but either way it’s money going out the door.

    Geoff: Thanks for the BaseballGB link, I love stuff like that.

  11. #4@Arne Vergauwen: I have some friends who swear that Belgian beer is the best in the world. I am not quite that enthusiastic, but I do enjoy the brew from your country every now and then. Really, though, I’m just happy we can drink domestic stuff here in the U.S. nowadays without having to hold our noses. That was a lot harder to do 15-20 years ago.

    #7@Coronado Mike: Kouz to the Twins has made so much sense, for so long, that it’ll probably never happen. The writer of that article, incidentally, misses the boat on Kouz’s defense. His metrics at 3B were pretty darned good last year, which jibes with the visual evidence.

    #9@Masticore317: The last I’ve seen is from from Corey at Padres.com. The names are starting to get a little more interesting. I remain optimistic that KT will hold his ground until he gets something he likes. He’s done a good job so far, IMHO. At the very least, he’s proving harder to “rip off” than many pundits seemed to think he might be.

  12. #10@Anthony: A player can be an investment the same way a car is an investment, or a piece of machining equipment in a factory, or Petco Park itself. If you use “liability” to mean simple legal obligation, then anything you agree to pay for is a liability, including money that you use to purchase stocks or bonds. If you use it in the more common sense of “something that puts you at a disadvantage” or “something you wish you weren’t responsible for,” then player contracts are clearly not liabilities. They’re part of what makes the team attractive to potential buyers.

    Say you had a team with 25 second-year players. Each player is in the top 10%, performance-wise, among major leaguers. They’re all making 400K. Your farm is stacked 3 deep at every position and loaded with pitching. That team is far more valuable than the right to own the franchise itself without any players. But that wouldn’t be true if the player contracts were liabilities.

    Some contracts may become liabilities because the player’s performance becomes so bad that you’re upside down. But that happens with investments, too.

  13. #11@Geoff Young: Yes, I remember when Michelob Dark was a real step up from what was commonly available. Robert B. Parker (the Spenser novels, which used to be good before he started phoning it in) called Rolling Rock the best beer in America 25 years ago. Now I can hit almost any liquor or grocery store and pick from multiple Double IPAs. On the other hand, there sure are a lot of people drinking Coors Light.

    I’m glad Towers was willing to get out of his comfort zone of two-team trades. It does seem like we’re picking up some more valuable crumbs in this rumors.

  14. any guesses on who the Padres will take in the rule 5 today?

    my guess:
    Corey Wimberly – 2B Rockies

    and either
    Loek Van Mil – P Twins (coming off an injury and might be on the 60 day DL to start this year)
    Jordan Pratt – P Dodgers (would be used like Kevin Cameron in 07)

  15. Padres Rule V Picks:

    Everth Cabrera – SS Rockies 21 years old – Played in Low A ball last year, hit 284/.361/.399 with 101 SO and 51 BB in 479 AB’s (he should fit right in); one high note is that he had 73 SB last year so the Padres are adding a little speed. But let’s face it, the Padres added a Low A ball SS to their ML roster (can we say Callix Crabbe).

    Ivan Nova – RHP Yankees 21 Years old – Played in A+ ball last year he pitched 148.2 innings in 24 starts last year. He went 8 – 12 with an ERA of 4.36, struck out 6.6 per 9, had a whip of 1.44 and will sit in the pen all of next year much like Kevin Cameron did in 07.

    Woohoo!

  16. #15@Steve C: Crabbe was a Triple-A second baseman; you’re thinking of Donaldo Mendez. ;-)

  17. #16@Geoff Young: LoL yeah I was thinking another light hitting IF who can’t hit or play SS.

  18. Interesting stuff from John Manuel at BA on Cabrera:

    Rockies special assistant Walt Weiss has likened Cabrera to a young Rafael Furcal, and Furcal jumped from A-ball to the big leagues back in 2000.

    Could be nothing more than hype, but it’s worth noting that Weiss himself is a former big-league shortstop.

  19. Also worth noting that:

    1. Cabrera only started playing short this year and is generally viewed as not so great there.

    2. Crabbe had a lot more experience against better competition.

    Still, no reason not to do it. The Nova kid looks like a reliever to me, even though he’s started in the minors.

  20. Oh yeah — Many reports are saying that the Peavy trade to Chicago is DEAD.

  21. Well, it certainly looks like both Peavy and Hoffman will be with the Padres next season (although who knows how long Peavy will be with the team). So for all the talk of the Padres cutting payroll they didn’t at all except for Maddux who retired. They certainly did butcher the public relations the past few months.

  22. Only problem with that comment from Weiss is that if anyone else in the organization felt the same way they add him to the 40 man roster.

  23. Here’s what KG @ BP has to say about our first pick …

    In the days leading up to the draft, Cabrera was the guy that everyone was talking about as moving up. He’s small but athletic with plus-plus speed, as evidenced by 73 stolen bases this year, and also has a solid arm. He has a decent approach and a contact-oriented swing, and should be pretty easy to hide this year on a decimated San Diego roster. I think this is a really good pick for the Padres if he can recover from the one missed year of development time.

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8362

    … and the 2nd round pick …

    Nova has frustrated Yankees officials for two years now, as his statistics in A-ball come nowhere close to matching his scouting reports, as he has low-90s heat and a very good changeup. Everything would have to suddenly click for him in every way to make the big-league team, and that rarely happens.

  24. Looks like Jake is staying…

    and Tom, while much of what you are saying has merit, it mostly is relevant to a potential buyer who is like a Ray Kroc or even Moores himself when he first bought the club… a person who wants to own the club because they love baseball or even just sports in general. Unfortunately for us, I don’t think Mark Cuban is buying the Padres.

    From a more hardline accounting perspective, the kind more likely to be relevant in a divorce trial, the historical value of a major league franchise is only marginally affected by who their current players are… although, since the times a successful team has been on the block are rare at best, this is largely an exercise in pure theory on both our parts.

    …BTW, I think the best point you made is the one about restraining orders. I agree with you completely on that.

  25. #16@Geoff Young:

    In all fairness, nobody should be thinking about Donaldo Mendez.

  26. We also lost John Madden (pitcher, not announcer) and Javis Diaz in the AAA phase of the Rule V.

  27. #21@Schlom: Maddux ended the year with the Dodgers.

    #22@Mark Ase: Yep, so either Weiss is right or everyone else is. We’ll see.

    #23@LynchMob: Thanks for the links; good stuff!

    #26@Masticore317: I would be glad to stop thinking about Mendez; it ain’t easy, though.