2008 October

Archive for October 2008

Links for 17 Oct 08

Friday, October 17, 2008
by Geoff Young

The topic du jour seems to be Jake Peavy, so let's get busy... Paul DePodesta weighs in on the situation [h/t LynchMob]: "If you have something you value at one million dollars, it would be foolish to refuse to consider selling it for twenty million dollars. On the flip side, it would also be foolish to sell it for anything less than one million. The thing that makes the market work is that each player has a different value to virtually every Club." It's sorta sad that he has to explain this stuff, but there you go. Over at Gaslamp Ball, jbox talks about Peavy's apparent desire to leave San Diego: "He's in a ...

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Posted in Notes and Links | 20 Comments »

Chatting with Dirk Hayhurst, Redux

Wednesday, October 15, 2008
by Geoff Young

Just before the season ended, we had a chance to speak with former Padres right-hander/writer Dirk Hayhurst. In the two weeks since, he has gotten married and become a member of the Toronto Blue Jays. We recently caught up with Dirk to chat about these latest life changes and what the future may bring. Ducksnorts: First off, congratulations on getting married. I understand that you heard about your removal from the Padres 40-man roster during your honeymoon. How strange was that? Hayhurst: Well, as you can imagine, it wasn't something I was expecting to hear less then 12 hours into married life. I was barreling down the highway, "Just Married" inscriptions graffitied all over the windows of my car, when the phone rang. A Padres ...

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Posted in Interviews | 15 Comments »

Padres tickets Chargers tickets Sports tickets

Links for 14 Oct 08

Tuesday, October 14, 2008
by Geoff Young

I'm trying out a tool that pulls links from my Delicious bookmarks and publishes them here on a semi-regular basis... How much should Ben Sheets get? (Hardball Times). Victor Wang uses projected performance and risk analysis to predict that free-agent right-hander Ben Sheets will get $55-65 million for 4 or 5 years. The methodology seems reasonable, although that's an awful lot to pay for a guy who has made fewer than 25 starts in three of the last four seasons. Padres target pair of coaches (Padres.com). Corey Brock talks coaching changes. From the article: "The team has targeted Jim Lefebvre as the favorite for its hitting coach vacancy and ...

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Posted in Notes and Links | 4 Comments »

Writing the Book (13 Oct 08)

Monday, October 13, 2008
by Geoff Young

I'm still making good progress on the Ducksnorts 2009 Baseball Annual. This week I worked on player profiles and dashboards. My goal was to complete eight of 'em, but I ended up doing 13. Next up: a few more full profiles to write, plus several shorter pieces on guys who didn't contribute as much; I should finish those later this week. I've also started piecing together a quasi-philosophical essay on the challenges that lay ahead for the Padres as they try to gain the trust of a fan base and media that show little interest in trusting them. I started thinking about this back when support was waning even as the team won 88 and 89 games in '06 and '07, but more recently I've been ...

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Posted in 2009 Annual | 4 Comments »

OBG08 Revisited: Pitchers

Friday, October 10, 2008
by Geoff Young

We're looking back at our pre-season community projections. On Wednesday we covered the hitters; today we turn to the pitchers. Left-Handers Justin Hampson, 2008 IPERA Projected484.21 Actual30.22.93 Our most optimistic projection had Hampson at a 3.50 ERA. Joe Thatcher, 2008 IPERA Projected582.86 Actual25.28.42 We missed this about as badly as we could. So did other people: CHONE had Thatcher's ERA at 3.67, Marcels had it at 3.86, ZiPS at 2.96. Randy Wolf, 2008 IPERA Projected1244.18 Actual190.14.30 Wolf's ERA for the Padres was 4.74. The bigger shock is that he made it through a season healthy for the first time since 2003. I wouldn't mind seeing him back in San Diego next year. I can think of worse options, many of which I got to see firsthand after Wolf was traded to the Astros. Right-Hander...

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Posted in Projections | 12 Comments »

OBG08 Revisited: Hitters

Wednesday, October 8, 2008
by Geoff Young

Back in February we did some community projections for the 2008 Padres. In the interest of accountability, here's how we measured up to reality. Catchers Josh Bard, 2008 PABAOBPSLG Projected425.278.357.410 Actual198.202.279.270 Yuck. Our most pessimistic projection had Bard at a 725 OPS. Michael Barrett, 2008 PABAOBPSLG Projected246.263.323.419 Actual107.202.274.298 We need a synonym for "yuck," preferably something that rhymes. If only there were such a word... Infielders Adrian Gonzalez, 2008 PABAOBPSLG Projected641.293.362.517 Actual700.279.361.510 We totally nailed this one. Imagine how many batting titles Gonzalez could win if he didn't play half his games at Petco Park and weren't Molina-brother slow. Khalil Greene, 2008 PABAOBPSLG Projected561.257.309.464 Actual423.213.260.339 Greene and Bard killed the offense this year, but we already knew that. Tadahito Iguchi, 2008 PABAOBPSLG Projected532.263.341.391 Actual337.232.292.306 Iguchi was actually a little worse than Marcus Giles in 2007, which just boggles the imagination....

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Posted in Projections | 19 Comments »

Hayhurst Takes Off, Eh?

Tuesday, October 7, 2008
by Geoff Young

Right-hander Dirk Hayhurst has been claimed off waivers by the Toronto Blue Jays. Dirk was gracious enough to chat with us not long ago. Although his Padre career lasted just 16 2/3 innings, it got his foot in the proverbial door. Here's wishing Dirk all the best in Toronto (one of my favorite cities) as he continues to pursue his baseball dreams. Also, Josh Bard and Shawn "What Am I Even Doing on This Team?" Estes have filed for free agency. Bard and Estes spent much of 2008 on the disabled list. Despite his struggles this year, Bard ends his Padre career with some solid numbers: .282/.358/.412 in 268 games. Bard turns ...

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Posted in Notes and Links, Roster Notes | 11 Comments »