Ten Games
Wed, Sep 17, 2008
by Geoff Young
What a grind it’s been. In 30+ years of following baseball, I can’t ever remember looking forward to season’s end, but that’s pretty much where I’m at right now. Actually, I’ve been there for a few months.
It’s a strange feeling, and kind of sad. I just want the friggin’ games to end so I can breathe a little and get back to focusing on research. Is that so much to ask? Just finish these 10 meaningless games so I can start working with final stats.
Sigh.
. . .
We’re driving to Vegas on Thursday for Blog World Expo. I made it out to last year’s inaugural event and had a blast. The sessions were mostly informative, and networking opportunities abounded. I got to rub elbows with the likes of Rob Neyer and Will Leitch, among many others.
I’m not really a Vegas kind of guy, and last year I didn’t do much beyond attend sessions. This time, however, we got tickets to see Tony Bennett. I’m hoping he’ll sing “The Best Is Yet to Come” because Lord knows I need the reminder.
Anyway, if you end up at Blog World Expo, let me know. I’ve got new business cards and everything…
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
September 17, 2008 at 7:47 am
Have fun in Vegas, and I’m officially jealous you’re going to get to see Tony Bennett. Though I really really want to see Wayne Newton, don’t ask me why…but I do.
September 17, 2008 at 7:54 am
Meaningless GY? The next ten games could determine the on bright spot this year (other than Jody Gerut) the opportunity to draft a local San Diego kid and get it right this time!
September 17, 2008 at 11:12 am
If it makes any of you feel any better, here is the link to the Padres 2009 schedule…
http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com.....amp;y=2009
We open at home against the Dodgers, followed by the Giants…then the Pads are off to New York and Phili…then back across the country to San Fran…
That travel schedule stinks!!!
September 17, 2008 at 12:55 pm
I think the Padres only goal is to ensure that they finish poorly enough that they can draft Stephen Strasburg. I don’t think they really need to finish behind the Nationals as they couldn’t (or wouldn’t) sign 9th pick overall Aaron Crow (I think it’s unlikely that they would take another hard sign especially as they will also have the 10th pick overall — although that could drop depending on what happens to Alvarez and Hosmer). They do need to finish behind the Mariners as they will certainly take Strasburg. Right now the Padres are one game ahead in the win column and one behind in the loss column putting them percentage points ahead of the Mariners overall.
After today’s game in Colorado, they have 3 at Washington, 3 at Los Angeles and three at home vs. the Pirates. Best case scenario for me is that they lose all the games except the three vs. the Dodgers thereby clinching the worst record in baseball and hopefully knocking the Dodgers out of the playoffs. That would be sweet!
September 17, 2008 at 6:34 pm
#1@Rain Delay: Thanks, man; I’m so fired up to see Bennett.
#2@Steve C: True, although gunning for the #1 pick overall doesn’t really float my boat. Even if it ends up helping the franchise in the long run, the thought of finishing dead last pretty much disgusts me. I don’t take losing well.
September 17, 2008 at 7:03 pm
#5@Geoff Young: I don’t like TRYING to get the #1 pick, but if we get it I’ll be happy about it. At this point, I’d rather end up worst than 2nd worst. I mean, really.
September 17, 2008 at 7:37 pm
Don’t know why exactly, but I have been watching every Padres game. When I was in the District working nights, I was watching them on my two off nights.
Now that I’m in Raleigh with no job, I have been watching them every night. With not much else to do besides play pool, work out and apply for jobs, watching baseball is one of my favorite things. Plus, the annoucing team is always enjoyable.
I don’t find the new guys that interesting (maybe Venable or Antonelli), but it’s not like they are can’t-miss prospects. Watching Giles, A-Gon and Peavy play well until the end is fun.
The Padres need to sign Giles, make some pretty good signings and get lucky with them — unlike this year with Edmonds.
September 18, 2008 at 10:51 am
Actually, my worst nightmare is that we finish with the worst record and then DON’T draft Strasburg because he is represented by Boras and will demand a huge contract and signing bonus. Granted this season is awful but there would be no redeeming quality if that happened!
September 18, 2008 at 7:48 pm
Many learned DS bloggers have touted the Padres depth at the catching position, but I believe that is one of the positions that the organization actually is quite thin. Hundley and Carlin’s defensive work has been quite good (and we don’t expect Carlin to hit) but the jury is still out big time on Hundley’s offensive capabilities at this level - he has never shown much selectivity at the plate and in return doesn’t quite hit enough for power to justify his low OBP; if you look at his o.k-so so minor league numbers and that he is hardly a young prospect at 26, not sure the Pads should lean/rely on this guy to get it done for 120-130 games in 2009. In addition, Colt Morton may be a lost cause and Jose Lobaton does not hit so where is the depth ? Should the Pads look to get someone like Gerald Laird or Ramon Hernandez under contract ?
September 20, 2008 at 1:44 pm
#9@JP: Hundley is 24 years old (actually he just turned 25, but he played the season at age 24). Long term, he should provide value similar to or slightly better than that of Laird. I compared Hundley to Mike Macfarlane in last year’s book, but in retrospect, that was probably too generous. I’m thinking now more of guys like Jason LaRue and Ron Karkovice.
As for the rest of the system, Lobaton hit .259/.338/.422 in a tough environment this year so he’s not an offensive zero. Mitch Canham is a good hitter, although I have questions about his defense. Further down, Emmanuel Quiles could be something. None of these guys is star material, but the Padres do have depth at catcher.
September 22, 2008 at 7:22 am
#10@ GY, what do you think that the Padres should do for a backup in ‘09? Should they bring in a veteran as a backup or give the role to Carlin? Any chance that the Padres will bring Barrett to camp again to give him one last crack?
September 22, 2008 at 8:03 am
#11@JP: I wouldn’t have a real problem with Carlin, although the danger is that he ends up getting too much PT, a la Gary Bennett in 2003. Carlin is a brutal hitter but I like his actions behind the plate and think he could have a career as backup in the mode of, well, Bennett. Carrying two young catchers is a risk, and we saw the downside of that a few years ago with Ben Davis and Wiki Gonzalez. However, I’m not sure that Hundley and Carlin have quite the baggage that those two did. I really think that as long as we temper our expectations of what a guy like Hundley can do and don’t get carried away singing his praises, we’ll be pleased. And I like Carlin way more than any numbers say I should. I’d be okay with those two, although it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Pads bring in someone with more experience. I don’t envision Barrett returning.
September 22, 2008 at 9:55 am
#11@JP:
#12@Geoff Young:
It depends on their goals next year. If they’re cutting OG loose and don’t address the rotation, then any money spent on a veteran catcher is a waste. If they’re reloading for another shot at the still-not-strong NL West, then Hundley + Carlin is a disaster. It might be survivable if they get enough offense from everywhere else and if the pitching is fixed, but a competitive team really should do much better.
September 22, 2008 at 6:21 pm
#13@Tom Waits: I think “disaster” is a bit of an overstatement, but your concerns are not without merit. More importantly, as you note, bringing in some guys who can pitch is a much bigger priority than finding a backup catcher. It’s also a more difficult task. So yeah, stressing about Carlin isn’t high on my list of things to do right now.
September 23, 2008 at 8:36 am
#14@Geoff Young: Other words would fit 700+ plate appearances of possibly 55 OPS+ hitting besides “disaster,” but they’d all be in that family.