The Giles Non-Story
Mon, Aug 11, 2008
by Geoff Young
I haven’t commented on the Brian Giles waiver thing because, frankly, nothing happened. That said, because the Red Sox were involved, people are making a big stink, so here’s my two cents.
First off, pretty much everyone gets placed on waivers this time of year. That’s not a news item.
Second, I’m hearing a lot of nonsense about Giles’ desire to win or whatever. I understand that the Boston media maybe feels a little jilted by his decision to remain in San Diego, but seriously, get over yourself. This is choice:
Giles is a player who talks a lot about winning, but if that’s the case, and you don’t want to leave San Diego to be part of a pennant race in Boston, then your words are forever hollow.
Of course, if he’d decided to leave San Diego, then folks would be calling him disloyal. Fun situation for Giles, eh?
Here’s how it works: Someone takes an action and other people judge it based on their own personal beliefs. Then those same people invent reasons to support their judgments.
In this case, apparently Nick Cafardo has a better understanding of Giles than does Giles himself. Well, that is some trick.
I wish I could get into someone else’s head. I promise you, I’d put such a skill to much better use than writing garbage…
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August 11, 2008 at 8:07 am
“Someone takes an action and other people judge it based on their own personal beliefs. Then those same people invent reasons to support their judgments.”
Eggsactally. When people say “If Giles really cared about winning, he’d have accepted the trade,” what they’re really saying is “I’d have gone to Boston for 2 months.” That’s absolutely immaterial to the discussion of what motivates Brian Giles. Only OG knows exactly how much he’d value a possible World Series chance under those circumstances, but it’s safe to surmise he doesn’t think it would mean all that much.
August 11, 2008 at 8:25 am
#1@Tom Waits: Yep. And I think it’s patently ridiculous to ever question Brian Giles’ desire. The guy doesn’t know how not to try.
August 11, 2008 at 8:47 am
Personally, I find it disgusting a man places a higher value on his family than his job. Disgusting!
August 11, 2008 at 9:11 am
Yes-getting to a winning environment is exactly why I lost so much respect for someone like Ted Williams-if he really cared about winning he would have left Boston for New York…..oh wait I forgot in Boston, NY and LA that argument only works for guys when they refuse to go to a bigger market.
Last I checked the Red Sox are 4.5GB of TB-and no sure thing to win the wild card-let’s not make this out to be a 10+ game lead for the Red Sox.
Let’s call this what it was: Boston had to block TB from being able to claim Giles.
Mark
August 11, 2008 at 9:14 am
Anyone else read TK’s article this morn in the UT?
http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....bbcol.html
August 11, 2008 at 9:21 am
I was more bummed about Giles not leaving because it would have been the best thing for the team. I don’t really care what his motives were for staying nor do I care, he negotiated the no trade in his contract so it was his right to do so but I think Giles staying hurts the teams chances in 09 more than it helps them, but who knows.
August 11, 2008 at 9:22 am
#4@Mark Ase: I think they were blocking him more fron the angles than TB, TB is one of the teams that giles can block a trade to.
August 11, 2008 at 9:27 am
The Angels? Seriously? I think they probably have enough outfielders as it is…..TB could actually really use Giles
August 11, 2008 at 9:27 am
It was really a no-lose for Boston. OG’s salary this year (and next, if they had picked up his option) is a drop in the bucket to them, and they know he’s a good hitter even if many Padre fans do not.
He accepts the trade, they get a very good player at a reasonable salary.
He declines the trade, the Angels and Rays have no opportunity to improve.
August 11, 2008 at 9:30 am
#8@Mark Ase: He would make a better DH than Gary Mathews Jr and or Anderson…
August 11, 2008 at 9:30 am
#6@Steve C: For 2009, that’s hard to see. It’s going to be very, very hard to find a player as good as Giles. 6 million dollars doesn’t buy much. 9 million doesn’t even buy that much, especially when you’d be looking to replace a 120 OPS+ bat with good defense.
If you were looking at 2010 and beyond, and the Red Sox were offering decent prospects, then sure.
August 11, 2008 at 9:39 am
#11@Tom Waits: I was assuming that Boston would not pick up his option and Giles would return to the Pads for $6 mil (plus the 3 from Boston), ultimately saving the pads $3mil in their 09 payroll so it was kind of win win, giles comes back to SD making the same amount he would have if he stayed and SD gets $3mil more to improve the bullpen and or get a 5th starter.
August 11, 2008 at 9:43 am
#12@Steve C: Yeah, that would have worked. But it’s a lot of assumptions, not the least of which is OG being okay with a 6M per year salary. I’d expect him to be in greater demand than that.
August 11, 2008 at 9:49 am
#6@Steve C: If a club executive was trying to paint a stark picture for 2009 to try and convince him to leave, how could Giles even feel comfortable staying here after that? It’s kind of like breaking up with a girlfriend and trying to convince her it’s OK because you’re all f—ed up anyways and she would be better off with someone else.
I guess Giles does have the support of his teammates and his no-trade clause definitely gives him every right to block a trade or else what’s the point in even negotiating it into his contract. It just doesn’t seem like a very good situation to be in, regardless of how much better or worse this team is without him.
As a very frustrated Padre fan, I initially took the news of a possible trade of Giles as a sign that the team was looking towards 2009 and a trade could have freed up some money and brought back some young prospects in return. So I admit, I was bummed when he didn’t accept the trade. Any change would be welcome when your team is 27 games under .500.
In a perfect world, we’d be able to afford to keep Giles in ‘09, and still have the resources to upgrade the offense in other areas and most importantly, the starting rotation and bullpen. I’m now convinced the team needs a #2 starter to push Chris Young into the #3 slot. And the bullpen is a complete mess right now. I think there is 2 or 3 reliable relievers out of 8 right now.
So is this even possible? Keeping Giles for $6 million and upgrading all of the other holes on the roster. If so, how do they do this?
Here’s the first question that needs to be answered, if anyone can find the data. There’s a ton of money coming off the books after the season, but with salary increases due to Peavy, Young, Gonzalez, and Khalil, how much money will they have to spend if they set the same budget as 2008? It would help in trying to determine which direction we all think the Padres should go in this offseason.
August 11, 2008 at 9:49 am
#13@Tom Waits: He would still be making $9 mil total, I could see him doing that to stay in SD and knowing that the extra money they would be saving would go back into the team. He prob could have swung a new deal that gave him 6 mil in 09 and a vesting option based on PA’s for 9 mil in 2010.
August 11, 2008 at 9:59 am
#14@JMAR: The Pads have $28 mil locked up in contracts next year (assuming they do not pick up Giles option if they do the number jumps up to $34 mil), but the 28/34m mil only takes into account the players who have guarantees contracts (Peavy, A-gon, Young, Giles and Greene) it does not take into account any arbitration numbers (Bard, Bell, Guret ect…)or guys who will still under team control (Kouz, Hairston, Banks, Hundley, E-Gon, ect…), or the holes that will be left open (bullpen, 2B, CF, 4th and 5th starters).
August 11, 2008 at 10:03 am
It will be interesting to see if they trade Bard in the offseason and go with Hundley every day to avoid arbitration, I would imagine Bard might be able to get 4 to 5 mil because of his 07 numbers.
August 11, 2008 at 10:04 am
#14@JMAR: Until we know more about the ownership situation, it’s impossible to know if money will be freed up or if money simply won’t be spent.
By my calculations, they’re on the hook for 31 million to these players:
Giles (if they pick up his option)
Peavy
Greene
Young
Agon
Hairston and Bard are abitration-eligible, but only Scott has the chance of a big jump, and he would still probably be in the 2-3 million range.
Kouz and/or Headley combined are going to be under 1M unless Kouz is a Super Two.
Obviously a lot depends on who, if anyone, gets traded and what they do with Hoffman. But let’s say it’s 7 full-time position players and 2 starting pitchers for ~ 35 million. If the payroll’s 65 million, they’d have 30 to fill 16 roster spots.
My preference would be 4 million (3/12) for Gerut, 12 million for Ollie Perez (3/26), 4 million for Igawa (3/12, acquired via trade). But I doubt Ollie signs a 3 year deal, and my Gerut estimate might be low. Still, a staff of Peavy, Ollie, Young, Igawa, and Banks is pretty darn strong looking.
The offense would hinge on Greene and the C position coming back to somewhere near normal. I wouldn’t expect nor advise them to spend a lot on relievers, but they need more Ks.
August 11, 2008 at 10:06 am
#17@Steve C: I’d be very surprised if Bard got anywhere near that. He’s a good candidate to go for a 2 year, 6 million deal after this debacle of a season.
August 11, 2008 at 10:13 am
#18@Tom Waits: Did you put Peavy in at $8 or $11 mil? His Cy Young bumped his 09 salary up to $11 mil.
#19@Tom Waits: Right but if he does not sign a deal and goes to arbitration he could prob get 4 mil a year because of his 07 numbers kind of like Barret this year after such a poor 07.
August 11, 2008 at 10:19 am
#18@Tom Waits: Now here is the scenario that I’ve been thinking about the last few days. We know a veteran #4 starter (i.e. Igawa or Randy Wolf) is going to cost the team $5-7 million. And Giles is another $6 million. That’s about $12 million.
Would we be better off declining Giles, using two inexpensive pitchers in the #4-5 spots (Banks, LeBlanc, Hensley, Estes, Baek, Geer???), and spending $12 million per season on Milton Bradley?
Or would the team be better served to pick up Giles’ option and use the $5-7 million on Igawa or Wolf or someone like that?
I’m definitely leaning towards the Bradley scenario but I have a feeling some of you might disagree.
August 11, 2008 at 10:21 am
Thats assuming Bradley would comeback…who knows what bridges were burrned last winter.
August 11, 2008 at 10:26 am
Interesting article on why Giles picked the 8 teams that were on his no trade clause:
http://www.newsday.com/sports/.....?track=rss
August 11, 2008 at 10:28 am
#20@Steve C: I put him at 8, good catch.
Barrett’s a little different. Before 2007 he had 3 really good years in a row, in extensive duty, and had already been a free agent. And he still settled for 3.5. Bard had a great part-time 06, a very good 07 in near-full-time duty, and a miserable 2008. I don’t see any way an arbitrator picks a 4-5 million dollar number as the fair one, unless the Padres’ offer is 2.1 or something.
August 11, 2008 at 10:31 am
#21@JMAR: If those inexpensive pitchers were any good, that would be a possible option. But they’re not likely to be any good. And Bradley is going to be expensive while remaining fragile; I really doubt he puts up anything like his Texas numbers if he’s playing the field everyday.
If we could find a platoon partner for Hairston in LF (maybe Venable), that production will be a lot closer to Bradley than Estes, Hensley, and other crud (or first-year pitchers) will be to “acceptable.”
August 11, 2008 at 10:31 am
I guess it depends on if they re-build or not, even 3 mil would be alot of they don’t have any future plans for him and Hundley looks to be able to handle the catching duties (defensively and dealing with the pitching staff).
August 11, 2008 at 10:33 am
#25@Tom Waits: With Guret in CF? do you think there will be enough pop in the lineup to be effective?
August 11, 2008 at 10:39 am
#27@Steve C: I think there’s enough pop in the lineup now to be effective, if C and SS were doing anything at all. The offense has clawed its way to a 98 OPS+ even with two deadweight positions (and 350 deadweight at-bats from Iguchi and Edmonds).
There’s lots of ways to improve the team, and a consistent, non-platoon bat in the OF would be welcome. But if the cost is giving 40% of our starts to pitchers like Banks, LeBlanc, Hensley, Estes, Baek, or Geer, without adding a front-line pitcher to the top of the rotation, then it looks like a misallocation of resources to me.
August 11, 2008 at 10:42 am
#22@Steve C: Very true. But just assuming that was an option, I wonder if the team would fill some positions with inexpensive players to enable the team to go out and get a legitimate #3 hitter (.300+ BA, 25-30 HR, 100 RBI). Not necessarily Bradley, although there really aren’t that many guys out there that provide that kind of offense.
The thing that frustrates me the most about this season is all of the mid-level dollars spent on veterans who amounted to zero production. I know it would be different if they got more production out of Barrett, Iguchi, and Wolf, but that’s at least $12 million that could have gone to a great player, instead of 3 or 4 mediocre-to-average players.
August 11, 2008 at 10:53 am
#21@JMAR: With the condition on the Yankees rotation, dont you think Igawa would be in their rotation right now if he were a legit #4 or eve #5 starter. I have always had my doubts with Igawa and really dont think he is a solution here.
August 11, 2008 at 10:56 am
#29@JMAR: I hear you on the blowing money on mid level veterans…I did not like them re-signing Maddux for 10 mil, the Edmonds pick up or them offering Barrett arbitration for that reason but when all your best prospects are in A ball and a limited payroll you don’t have much of a choice.
#28@Tom Waits: Right but that’s assuming the Bard will stay healthy, Greene will find his swing again, they stick with E-gon at 2B and he can continue to hit around .300 and they can fix the bullpen.
It will be interesting to see what the 09 lineup will look like, I have a feeling that Kouz and Bard will be traded this offseason and the Pads will not be able to re-sign Guret (he will get a multi-year deal from another team that the pads wont match).
Where Kulbacki, Sogard, Hunter and Canham when you need them!
August 11, 2008 at 10:58 am
#30@SDSUBaseball: The Yanks put Igawa on waivers in july and the Pads did not bight, they could have had him for 20K and did nothing, KT must have really cooled on him.
August 11, 2008 at 11:00 am
#27@Steve C: I think Gerut is finding his power stroke after being out of baseball for awhile. I think he has 7 HR’s since the all-star break, which is tied for 2nd or 3rd in the NL. He always hits the ball hard. Now, he’s just starting to elevate it a little more.
And I like what Hundley provides on defense and even though he’s going to hit .225-.240, I think half of his hits have been for extra bases.
#25@Tom Waits: An outfield quartet of Venable/Hairston/Gerut/Giles is actually promising for 2009. My only concern is still finding a #3 hitter. The way Gerut is playing, he could be the guy but I’d hate to go into 2009 with such a big question mark. I’d rather leave him at the top of the lineup, where he seems more than comfortable. The question is how to get Giles back to the #2 hole, where I think he fits best, without having to move a young player like Headley up in the lineup. If they keep Giles, the only way they’re improving the current lineup is to bring in a quality offensive 2B, like Orlando Hudson. He’s gonna cost at least $12 million, though, and he’s injury-prone. Any other ideas on how to improve the offense? Assuming they trade Kouz, which I think a lot of us are assuming, and keep Giles, this is what the lineup probably looks like for ‘09 so far:
CF Jody Gerut
RF Brian Giles
???
1B Adrian Gonzalez
3B Chase Headley
LF Will Venable / Scott Hairston
SS Khalil Greene
C Nick Hundley
August 11, 2008 at 11:04 am
#29@JMAR: Good point on spending money on one star instead of a bunch of mediocrities. One problem is that stars don’t take one year deals like mediocrities trying to rebuild their value do.
#28@Tom Waits: I don’t think LeBlanc or Baek look that much different than Igawa. LeBlanc is striking out way more guys in AAA, and Baek’s got a similar minor league track record and a better major league one. I like the idea of spending on a top of rotation type guy (I personally like Burnett for that), but I don’t see how spending money on a guy with questionable stuff who’s gotten shelled in the majors and is at best a 4th starter helps us. Even if it’s not that much money, it adds up (see post 29).
August 11, 2008 at 11:05 am
#33@JMAR: The only 2B’s that I can think of who are #3 hitters are Utley, Robberts, Uggla and maybe Kent still and I dont see the Pads getting any of the them.
August 11, 2008 at 11:08 am
#35@Steve C: I dont even know if I like Uggla in the #3. I think if Giles comes back and can hit like he did this year he is just fine in the #3 spot.
August 11, 2008 at 11:10 am
#36@SDSUBaseball: Meh the lack of power and speed make him an ideal #2 hitter kind of like Loretta was when he was here.
August 11, 2008 at 11:25 am
#34@Ben B.: They’d definitely have to make a long-term commitment if they were to bring in a great player, but with their farm system starting to show a bit more promise down in LE, FW, and Eugene, they wouldn’t be looking for one-year veteran stop gaps at multiple positions in 2-3 years who would cost $3-6 million dollars each. They’d have a solid group of inexpensive, major-league ready, young players surrounding a few high-paid superstars.
#35@Steve C: I guess they wouldn’t necessarily have to hit 3rd, but some combination of Giles, Gerut, and anyone who can offer above average OBP, speed, or power, if not all of the above, would be an upgrade.
#30@SDSUBaseball: I definitely think the Pads must have cooled on Igawa or else he very well would be here. Igawa was just an example, though, of the types of pitcher they look for to fill the back of the rotation. And as bad as he’s been as a major leaguer, he makes $5 million per season.
August 11, 2008 at 11:32 am
#34@Ben B.:
Igawa’s had 71 major league innings. I hardly think we can be writing him off now.
LeBlanc does have good minor league K numbers, but outside of his changeup, he has fringy stuff with a lesser fastball than Igawa. He still gives me the Mike Bynum vibe - one really good pitch that works against minor leaguers but is a big risk in the big leagues.
Igawa’s no front-end guy, but he’s also not a 4-5 million per year injury risk with 4th starter upside, which is what we’ve been spending money on. He looks to me like a change-of-scenery type who could give you 200 innings of 100 ERA+ ball, and you have him locked up for 3 years at a reasonable price.
Baek, in 3x as many major league innings, has an 85.
I wouldn’t want to spend the money on Igawa if it was the difference between a better front-line pitcher, certainly.
August 11, 2008 at 11:47 am
#39@Tom Waits: Igawa makes $4 million per year. Last year he was injured. He only threw 135 innings last year, and there are questions about how he’ll hold up to a full season load of starting every 5th day instead of every 6th like in Japan. I’m not sure how you’re getting an upside of higher than a 4th starter from him considering he’s got a 67 ERA+ in the majors with 15 homers surrendered in those 71 innings, and his minor league strikeout rate is 7.6 K/9.
So he sure looks to me like a $4-5 million per year injury risk with 4th starter upside.
August 11, 2008 at 11:53 am
Wow, D-Backs get Adam Dunn for close to nothing.
August 11, 2008 at 12:00 pm
#40@Ben B.: I don’t think Igawa was hurt last year, or at least not anything serious. He was called up last September but hardly used, which takes 5-6 starts away from him, and when he was in the majors he was skipped a few times. Plus, let’s face it, he wasn’t good and he didn’t go deep into games. But the IP is more about ineffectiveness than health. I can’t find a story about him being hurt, but I can find plenty about him being pushed back or only going 4+ innings. Which doesn’t make him good, but it explains the IP total.
I’m barely considering his 67 ERA+ in the majors, since it’s 71 innings. I can pick out a lot of guys with 67 ERA+ in a 71 inning stretch who aren’t 67 ERA+ pitchers. His minor league K rate isn’t fantastic, but it’s not bad either, and the Padres thought enough of him to submit a bid when he came over and to claim him on waivers last year.
August 11, 2008 at 12:12 pm
#41@Ben B.: That is rather incredible.
August 11, 2008 at 12:36 pm
#43@Phantom:
#41@Ben B.:
Depends on who the PTBNL are, but the DBax system has thinned out with the Haren trade and promotions.
August 11, 2008 at 12:43 pm
The PTBN could be two major leauge guys who would not make it though waivers and they are just waiting until the end of the season to move them.
August 11, 2008 at 12:51 pm
This may sound kind of odd but I could see the Padres making a run at Randy Johnson in the off season, hbis contract is up this year and he is 7 wins away from #300, I could see the Padres giving him Maddux type money to draw people in next year, that is if they don’t cut the payroll down to 40 mil.
August 11, 2008 at 1:06 pm
#42@Tom Waits: My mistake on the injury. I thought I remember some sort of injury from last year and the innings were very limited. So, probably not injury prone. But certainly not established as a work horse or anything like that, and no track record of throwing 200 innings in a season. Other than that, his 71 major league innings are a quarter of his track record, and they’re the most important quarter. I just don’t see how a guy with a slightly above average K rate in the minor leagues, an abysmal 71 innings in the majors, questionable stuff, and a $4 million a year contract seems like a good idea and an upgrade over the players already in the system who are cheaper and have better major or minor league track records. Igawa seems like the very definition of the guy you want the Padres to avoid: a limited upside starter who will look serviceable because of Petco Park. Why pay $4 million to acquire that guy when you have several of them in the organization already?
August 11, 2008 at 1:13 pm
2 pieces of good news from yesterday’s AZL Padres’ box score …
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.....k_pdrrok_1
… Jaff Decker played (hadn’t played since Aug 6th) and went 2-for-3 with a HR (#3) + 2 walks … and Adam Zornes played catcher (so that means we must have signed him, drafted out of Rice, so AZL seems like a pretty low starting point for him, will be interesting to see if he gets bump’d to Eugene soon).
August 11, 2008 at 1:30 pm
#47@Ben B.: It’s possible he was hurt, I just can’t find anything.
From 2002 to 2006 he threw 200+ innings four times in Japan. They may get more off-days between starts, but they also throw a ton on those off-days, if memory serves.
He’s got 1200 pro innings, and 71 are the most important?
His K rate this year in AAA is mediocre, certainly. Last year it was over 9. There are tales that he’s unhappy with the Yankees, which may not be a positive but could explain a certain lackadaisicality.
I am putting more weight on his Japanese performance than his 200 American minor league innings. There’s a risk in that. But he reminds me a bit, maybe just atmospherically, of Chris Young. A guy unappreciated by his home team, with pretty good minor league K numbers and fly ball tendencies.
Who are these several players with better numbers? LeBlanc in Portland, I don’t see anyone else there, and LeBlanc has question marks of his own. Baek’s been miserable in far more major league innings, and his minor league record is less impressive given that Igawa was thriving against seasoned pro hitters in Japan at an age when Baek was in the Cal League. A lack of health and stability in the rotation has killed us almost every year since 2004. 4 million doesn’t seem like that expensive of an insurance policy.
August 11, 2008 at 1:44 pm
#37@Steve C: When you have power out of #4 and 5 you dont nessasarily need it at #3, especially when he hits alot of doubles and gets on base.
August 11, 2008 at 1:50 pm
#47@Ben B.: Exactly. We basically sign a guy lie Igawa every year anyway and normally for cheaper. Igawa’s 71 innings are very important because it makes up a good chunk of his time that he has played baseball in the US.
August 11, 2008 at 2:05 pm
#49@Tom Waits: I’m not defending Baek here. We all know he’s very inconsistent. He’s either been really good or really bad. It was the same story in ‘07 for Seattle. And he’s 28, so he might be at his ceiling.
BUT, there has to be some ability there to be able to shut down teams like he has on occasion. He gave up just one run and one hit over 6 IP against Oakland earlier in the season. He gave up a run on seven hits to the Mets in his second start with SD and followed that up with a two-hit performance over 7 innings at Cleveland. He shutout Arizona on just two hit over 6 innings a few weeks ago and has recently had really good outings at St. Louis (6.1 IP, ER, 6 H) and at New York (6.1 IP, 2 ER, 8 H).
So all of those great outings were mixed in with some really bad ones. But my point is, the guy throws low 90’s with some decent secondary pitches. Not a lot of strikeouts, but not a lot of walks either. And he pitches deep into the 7th inning quite often. Is there a chance that this guy might just be a late developer and could string together more of those great outings instead of the poor ones in the very near future?
Anyone else think this guy has a future with the Pads?
August 11, 2008 at 2:24 pm
#49@Tom Waits: Ah, I wasn’t looking at his Japanese innings at all. Pecota looks at his Japanese innings and for this year it forecast an ERA slightly over 5. It did see some upside, as his 90th percentile projection is a mid 3’s ERA.
Without that $12 million total owed him, I’d rather start him than any other option in the Padre system currently. Because he is owed $12 million, I’d rather plug in LeBlanc, Hensley, Baek, or Banks and use that $12 million as part of a contract for Burnett or Perez, or even give $4 million to Randy Wolf or some other free agent starter.
And yes, I will continue to defend Baek because he hasn’t pitched badly at all here. His strikeout, walk, and home run numbers for the Padres are all good. As I said a couple of weeks ago, I like him better than Banks.
August 11, 2008 at 2:30 pm
#51@SDSUBaseball: We rarely sign anyone with his combination of stuff and health for 4 million. We spent way more than that on Wells and Wolf, and both of them had major questions about their health. 71 innings are hardly enough to be predictive of anything.
#52@JMAR: I assume there’s some ability, but Baek’s had 200+ major league innings (still not enough to really predict much) and those bad games substantially outnumber the good ones.
I get the feel that with Baek (and Banks, although he hasn’t totally turned into a pumpkin…..yet) you get a generic RHP who will struggle to keep his ERA+ within shouting distance of 90. I think there’s more there with Igawa.
These guys all may be various iterations of Brett Tomko, in which case spending 4M on one of them doesn’t make much sense. If I was going to bet on any of them being successful for the next two years, though, it’d be Igawa.
August 11, 2008 at 2:38 pm
#53@Ben B.: If it’s between Igawa and Perez/Burnett/Somebody Really Good, absolutely, I’d rather spend the 4m on a bigger-ticket item. No question.
Baek’s 80 ERA+, coupled with his career numbers, looks like bad pitching to me. He doesn’t seem to be unlucky with BABIP.
If we’re going to keep spending 4 - 7 million every year for retread starters hoping to bounce back at the rear of the rotation, we should be honest - there’s little chance they’re going to be much better than league-average. That’s even more true because those guys are often old and/or coming off injuries. In that case why not just get the shopping out of the way at one time? What’s the difference between buying Randy Wolf (or some other pitcher looking to rebuild his value) every year for 3 years, or buying Igawa once?
August 11, 2008 at 3:22 pm
I’m hoping that the top FO issue this week is getting Dykstra and/or Darnell and/or Kipnis signed …
http://www.baseballamerica.com.....?team=1016
It’s my understanding that Mooneyham is still unsignable …
Have you heard any updates on 1st, 2nd and 4th round picks?
August 11, 2008 at 3:31 pm
#56@LynchMob: At this point I dont see the Pads getting a deal done iwht any of them by Friday…
August 11, 2008 at 3:49 pm
#56@LynchMob:
#57@Steve C:
My WAG ranking on which gets signed:
Darnell
Kipnis
big gap
Mooneyham
I’d suspect that if the Padres remained interested in signing Dykstra at all, he’d be signed. Just a suspicion. But if they don’t sign him, there’s no excuse for not getting 2 of the other 3 done.
August 11, 2008 at 3:55 pm
#54@Tom Waits: I must not see the “stuff” you see and his 71 ML innings are a big chunk of his US innings. Japanese numbers don’t always translate to MLB success. He is also older than Baek. I dont really like Baek either, but I see no point in Igawa if we keep Baek around.
August 11, 2008 at 4:11 pm
#59@SDSUBaseball: What scouting reports are you looking at? He’s a lefty with a fastball that reaches 93 and a plus changeup. His fastball isn’t any faster than Baek’s, but coming from the left side counts more.
A big chunk of a small number is still an even smaller number.
Nobody said Japanese numbers always translate, but they’ve generally proven to be as predictive as US minor league numbers. Igawa had substantially more success against tougher competition at comparable ages than Baek.
I don’t want anybody to think that I’m selling Igawa as anything more than a durable (as much as any pitcher really can be) back-of-the-rotation starter who can be league-average, with an upside of being better than almost anyone else’s #4. For 4 million, that’s a solid return.
August 11, 2008 at 4:17 pm
#5@Steve C: TK’s article has been updated with comments from Towers saying ownership hasn’t set a payroll for next year yet, and that the $40 million figure isn’t from the front office.
August 11, 2008 at 4:24 pm
#60@Tom Waits: He could just as easily be a bust like he has been for NY and the money would be better spent elsewhere, especially for 3 years… Again he has been terrible in MLB and with the Yanks rotation being essentially up for grabs, Igawa still cant crack it. How would this player be better than anyone else’s #4?
August 11, 2008 at 4:52 pm
#57@Steve C: Why don’t you think the Padres get any deals signed this week? BA thinks there will be a lot of signings this week …
http://www.baseballamerica.com.....66659.html
I assume the Padres have irons in the fire … I think they’ll sign all 3 (Dykstra, Darnell and Kipnis) … but that’s more of the hopeful fan in me than anything else …
August 11, 2008 at 4:59 pm
#62@SDSUBaseball: The Yankees have soured on him, but other teams’ assessments aren’t gospel. The Rangers didn’t think CY could be an effective pitcher, either.
Not many fourth starters are capable of striking out 7 per 9. Maybe Igawa never does that in the majors, but it’s not that unlikely. Meanwhile, the average #4 starter is around a low 90s ERA+. We’ve used much worse than that the last five years, and often paid more for it.
Again, what’s the difference between 3 different pitchers 4 million (or more) for 3 years, or paying 1 pitcher 12 million over the same 3 years?
August 11, 2008 at 5:08 pm
#64@Tom Waits: You can re-evaluate after each year. The type of guys targetted with these contracts are going to have big question marks, like health, age, or effectiveness. It’s worth a lot to not be stuck paying Igawa $8 million more if you try him out for 100 innings and he’s still getting torched.
August 11, 2008 at 5:31 pm
#64@Tom Waits: The difference is if Igawa is a bust we are stuck with him for 3 years.
August 11, 2008 at 5:32 pm
#64@Tom Waits: I dont think CY could be an effective pitcher in Texas. I think he is mostly effective thanks to Petco.
August 11, 2008 at 5:56 pm
NEW YORK (AP) – San Diego bench coach Craig Colbert was suspended one game Monday for a dispute with umpires last week.
Colbert will serve the penalty Tuesday night when the Padres play Milwaukee. He was also fined an undisclosed amount by Major League Baseball disciplinarian Bob Watson.
August 11, 2008 at 5:57 pm
#65@Ben B.: We can sew a different name on his jersey every year. If the short-termer does well, he’s almost certainly going to price himself out of our range, so we don’t benefit from the evaluation period. Hey, great year, have a good time with the 3 year contract somebody else gave you. Then we go looking for next year’s gently (hah) used model.
Now, it may be true that Baek is an equally good gamble (or close enough for jazz). I don’t think he is, but it’s possible, and he has at least 2 months to show it. I’m completely willing to adopt your chosen Underperforming Asian Pitcher if he starts getting better results.
#66@SDSUBaseball: As opposed to finding some other ineffective or recently injured pitcher to give 4 million to? Sometimes it works - right now the Cardinals would love to have signed Lohse to a 3/12 deal. We’ve been stuck paying our backend starters more than that for years, getting not only subpar returns but also few innings. If the Padres were going to change the way they did business, then it might make less sense to try to lock up the 4th spot. But almost certainly, the guys they sign to audition for the role are going to cost about 4m and be very risky, and there’s going to be a different set every year, with the cost and the risk staying the same.
#67@SDSUBaseball: The point is, teams miss on players all the time. It doesn’t mean they’re right. Texas also gave up Agon in that deal. The Padres didn’t protect Soria. The Cardinals signed Carpenter to a massive extension. Igawa not being part of the Yankees current rotation means the Yankees don’t like him. It doesn’t mean he’s lost the ability that led them to cough up 46 million for him last year.
August 11, 2008 at 6:15 pm
#69@Tom Waits: No it doesnt mean he lost it, but it could mean he never had the ability to perform at this level. I know teams miss on players all the time and missing goes both ways. I jsut dont think they are missing on anything if they pass on Igawa and spend the $4 million elsewhere for the next 3 years… perhaps on a legit #2 starter? I’d prefer to better our rotation from the front back, not from the back forward.
August 11, 2008 at 7:36 pm
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.....p;sid=t510
Weems is in AA, and playing third base.
August 11, 2008 at 7:57 pm
#11@Tom Waits: Is Giles age an issue at all to you? ~ seems like a 60+ game breakdown or injury loss is more possible now with his age and his reckless style.
August 11, 2008 at 8:08 pm
Today on Baseballprospectus.com : this year’s Padres catchers are the 14th worst all-time offensively. (they use EQa as the metric)
That’s all-time. As in every team, every season, since the beginning of baseball.
Good job, Bard/Hundley/Barrett/Carlin!
August 11, 2008 at 8:22 pm
The Padres signed JD Closser to a minor league deal. He is on the Portland roster.
http://tinyurl.com/66meuo Clossers #’s
Former Padres catcher David Ross (31 years old) has been released by the Reds. Ross wasn’t necessarily having a terrible year for the Reds with an OPS+ @ 96. Ross had 30+ walks in only 160 PA’s -Might not be a bad idea for a club to bring him into camp next year.
August 11, 2008 at 8:26 pm
#73@David Coonce:
Luke Carlin OPS+ 34
Michael Barrett OPS+ 57
Josh Bard OPS+ 58
Todd Hundley OPS+ 74
That is just ugly.
August 11, 2008 at 8:26 pm
#73@David Coonce: Wow. 14th worst all time is very bad indeed.
August 11, 2008 at 8:33 pm
#75@Field39: Not sure we can lean on any one of these guys to stablilize the position in 2009. It’s still early for to decide about whether Hundley is an everyday player and Bard seems to be falling apart physically, though he could very well bounce back, seems 50-50 at this point for Bard.
Bard and Hundley tandem in 2010 doesn’t scare the hell out of me but obviously doesn’t leave me confident either.
August 11, 2008 at 8:42 pm
#77@JP: I believe that Josh’s inability to control the running game, overrides all other considerations. Having other teams steal at a 90% success rate, is an untendable situation.
August 11, 2008 at 8:56 pm
#78@Field39: You’re probably right–I always seem to forget that he can’t throw out runners either - must be because until recently, I assumed that it was mostly the Padre’s pitchers who were at fault.
August 11, 2008 at 9:45 pm
I think catcher is the biggest concern among the eight positions for next year. That may be too obvious of a statement.
August 11, 2008 at 10:07 pm
#71@Field39: Organizational soldier … already …
#75@Field39: ‘cept Nick’s name isn’t Todd …
August 11, 2008 at 10:26 pm
#63@LynchMob: I think they may sign Darnell and Kipnis (although I think Darnell is unlikely) but I think they are already looking to the 09 draft with Dykstra’s pick and I dont see them giving Mooneyham 7 figures…
Darnell will be tought because I dont see the pads going above slot at this point (espeacialy since they could not dump maddux or Gile’s salary) so I think Darnell will just go back to college for a year and try to get more money next year.
August 11, 2008 at 11:13 pm
#82@Steve C: If the Padres don’t sign Dykstra and can’t convince Mooneyham to forgo Stanford, then there is no reason why they shouldn’t be able to sign Darnell, even if it means giving him an offer above slot. They would be able to draw from Dykstra’s 1.4M available to use out of their already allotted draft budget. Giles’ and Maddux’s salaries shouldn’t even enter the equation in any case. Kipnis’ status as a draft eligible sophomore has made him the most unlikely signing aside from Mooneyham.
If they don’t end up signing any one of them, then this will go down as one of the biggest draft debacles in team history this side of Matt Bush, even considering the possibility that they discovered some serious unforeseen health condition with regard to Dykstra. To not sign your 2 and 4 picks with first found draft money still available in such a case would be inexcusable.
August 12, 2008 at 5:22 am
#70@SDSUBaseball: Neither do I. Ben and I have been agreeing on that all along.
#72@JP: Not for 2009. It’s a risk, but it’s 6m, 1 year.
#83@Bruce: Yes.
August 12, 2008 at 5:38 am
#83@Bruce:
#82@Steve C:
Today’s UT has a story about the draftees. Fuson says the Darnell negotiations have picked up and he’s “anxiously optimistic” a deal will get done.
And that may be it. They’re 600K apart with Kipnis. The story doesn’t even mention Mooneyham. And as cold-hearted as it sounds, if Dykstra’s hip (or other) condition is as dangerous as the Padres seem to believe, they have no incentive to sign him even for $1. That forfeits their 09 pick.
August 12, 2008 at 7:47 am
#83@Bruce: I think all the money in which the team spends at this point is beeing looked at under the same microscope at the moment.
#85@Tom Waits: Good to hear about Darnell for some reason I thought that they were still really far apart maybe I eas thinking of Kipins.
August 12, 2008 at 8:26 am
#85@Tom Waits: I am not sure Kipnis rates highly enough at this point to throw an extra $600K at him, especially if he believes that he will be one of the stars of a replenishing ASU team.
#86@Steve C: Fair enough on the money. No one really knows what’s going on.
Dykstra better be suffering from something fierce though.
August 12, 2008 at 8:41 am
#87@Bruce: That’s a big gap. Good for Kipnis that he’s confident enough to believe he can be a first-rounder next year.
#86@Steve C: They were ~200K apart with Darnell a few weeks back.