The Giles Non-Story

I haven’t commented on the Brian Giles waiver thing because, frankly, nothing happened. That said, because the Red Sox were involved, people are making a big stink, so here’s my two cents.

First off, pretty much everyone gets placed on waivers this time of year. That’s not a news item.

Second, I’m hearing a lot of nonsense about Giles’ desire to win or whatever. I understand that the Boston media maybe feels a little jilted by his decision to remain in San Diego, but seriously, get over yourself. This is choice:

Giles is a player who talks a lot about winning, but if that’s the case, and you don’t want to leave San Diego to be part of a pennant race in Boston, then your words are forever hollow.

Of course, if he’d decided to leave San Diego, then folks would be calling him disloyal. Fun situation for Giles, eh?

Here’s how it works: Someone takes an action and other people judge it based on their own personal beliefs. Then those same people invent reasons to support their judgments.

In this case, apparently Nick Cafardo has a better understanding of Giles than does Giles himself. Well, that is some trick.

I wish I could get into someone else’s head. I promise you, I’d put such a skill to much better use than writing garbage…

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88 Responses »

  1. #47@Ben B.: Exactly. We basically sign a guy lie Igawa every year anyway and normally for cheaper. Igawa’s 71 innings are very important because it makes up a good chunk of his time that he has played baseball in the US.

  2. #49@Tom Waits: I’m not defending Baek here. We all know he’s very inconsistent. He’s either been really good or really bad. It was the same story in ’07 for Seattle. And he’s 28, so he might be at his ceiling.

    BUT, there has to be some ability there to be able to shut down teams like he has on occasion. He gave up just one run and one hit over 6 IP against Oakland earlier in the season. He gave up a run on seven hits to the Mets in his second start with SD and followed that up with a two-hit performance over 7 innings at Cleveland. He shutout Arizona on just two hit over 6 innings a few weeks ago and has recently had really good outings at St. Louis (6.1 IP, ER, 6 H) and at New York (6.1 IP, 2 ER, 8 H).

    So all of those great outings were mixed in with some really bad ones. But my point is, the guy throws low 90′s with some decent secondary pitches. Not a lot of strikeouts, but not a lot of walks either. And he pitches deep into the 7th inning quite often. Is there a chance that this guy might just be a late developer and could string together more of those great outings instead of the poor ones in the very near future?

    Anyone else think this guy has a future with the Pads?

  3. #49@Tom Waits: Ah, I wasn’t looking at his Japanese innings at all. Pecota looks at his Japanese innings and for this year it forecast an ERA slightly over 5. It did see some upside, as his 90th percentile projection is a mid 3′s ERA.

    Without that $12 million total owed him, I’d rather start him than any other option in the Padre system currently. Because he is owed $12 million, I’d rather plug in LeBlanc, Hensley, Baek, or Banks and use that $12 million as part of a contract for Burnett or Perez, or even give $4 million to Randy Wolf or some other free agent starter.

    And yes, I will continue to defend Baek because he hasn’t pitched badly at all here. His strikeout, walk, and home run numbers for the Padres are all good. As I said a couple of weeks ago, I like him better than Banks.

  4. #51@SDSUBaseball: We rarely sign anyone with his combination of stuff and health for 4 million. We spent way more than that on Wells and Wolf, and both of them had major questions about their health. 71 innings are hardly enough to be predictive of anything.

    #52@JMAR: I assume there’s some ability, but Baek’s had 200+ major league innings (still not enough to really predict much) and those bad games substantially outnumber the good ones.

    I get the feel that with Baek (and Banks, although he hasn’t totally turned into a pumpkin…..yet) you get a generic RHP who will struggle to keep his ERA+ within shouting distance of 90. I think there’s more there with Igawa.

    These guys all may be various iterations of Brett Tomko, in which case spending 4M on one of them doesn’t make much sense. If I was going to bet on any of them being successful for the next two years, though, it’d be Igawa.

  5. #53@Ben B.: If it’s between Igawa and Perez/Burnett/Somebody Really Good, absolutely, I’d rather spend the 4m on a bigger-ticket item. No question.

    Baek’s 80 ERA+, coupled with his career numbers, looks like bad pitching to me. He doesn’t seem to be unlucky with BABIP.

    If we’re going to keep spending 4 – 7 million every year for retread starters hoping to bounce back at the rear of the rotation, we should be honest – there’s little chance they’re going to be much better than league-average. That’s even more true because those guys are often old and/or coming off injuries. In that case why not just get the shopping out of the way at one time? What’s the difference between buying Randy Wolf (or some other pitcher looking to rebuild his value) every year for 3 years, or buying Igawa once?

  6. I’m hoping that the top FO issue this week is getting Dykstra and/or Darnell and/or Kipnis signed …

    It’s my understanding that Mooneyham is still unsignable …

    Have you heard any updates on 1st, 2nd and 4th round picks?

  7. #56@LynchMob: At this point I dont see the Pads getting a deal done iwht any of them by Friday…

  8. #56@LynchMob:
    #57@Steve C:

    My WAG ranking on which gets signed:


    big gap


    I’d suspect that if the Padres remained interested in signing Dykstra at all, he’d be signed. Just a suspicion. But if they don’t sign him, there’s no excuse for not getting 2 of the other 3 done.

  9. #54@Tom Waits: I must not see the “stuff” you see and his 71 ML innings are a big chunk of his US innings. Japanese numbers don’t always translate to MLB success. He is also older than Baek. I dont really like Baek either, but I see no point in Igawa if we keep Baek around.

  10. #59@SDSUBaseball: What scouting reports are you looking at? He’s a lefty with a fastball that reaches 93 and a plus changeup. His fastball isn’t any faster than Baek’s, but coming from the left side counts more.

    A big chunk of a small number is still an even smaller number.

    Nobody said Japanese numbers always translate, but they’ve generally proven to be as predictive as US minor league numbers. Igawa had substantially more success against tougher competition at comparable ages than Baek.

    I don’t want anybody to think that I’m selling Igawa as anything more than a durable (as much as any pitcher really can be) back-of-the-rotation starter who can be league-average, with an upside of being better than almost anyone else’s #4. For 4 million, that’s a solid return.

  11. #5@Steve C: TK’s article has been updated with comments from Towers saying ownership hasn’t set a payroll for next year yet, and that the $40 million figure isn’t from the front office.

  12. #60@Tom Waits: He could just as easily be a bust like he has been for NY and the money would be better spent elsewhere, especially for 3 years… Again he has been terrible in MLB and with the Yanks rotation being essentially up for grabs, Igawa still cant crack it. How would this player be better than anyone else’s #4?

  13. #57@Steve C: Why don’t you think the Padres get any deals signed this week? BA thinks there will be a lot of signings this week …

    I assume the Padres have irons in the fire … I think they’ll sign all 3 (Dykstra, Darnell and Kipnis) … but that’s more of the hopeful fan in me than anything else …

  14. #62@SDSUBaseball: The Yankees have soured on him, but other teams’ assessments aren’t gospel. The Rangers didn’t think CY could be an effective pitcher, either.

    Not many fourth starters are capable of striking out 7 per 9. Maybe Igawa never does that in the majors, but it’s not that unlikely. Meanwhile, the average #4 starter is around a low 90s ERA+. We’ve used much worse than that the last five years, and often paid more for it.

    Again, what’s the difference between 3 different pitchers 4 million (or more) for 3 years, or paying 1 pitcher 12 million over the same 3 years?

  15. #64@Tom Waits: You can re-evaluate after each year. The type of guys targetted with these contracts are going to have big question marks, like health, age, or effectiveness. It’s worth a lot to not be stuck paying Igawa $8 million more if you try him out for 100 innings and he’s still getting torched.

  16. #64@Tom Waits: The difference is if Igawa is a bust we are stuck with him for 3 years.

  17. #64@Tom Waits: I dont think CY could be an effective pitcher in Texas. I think he is mostly effective thanks to Petco.

  18. NEW YORK (AP) – San Diego bench coach Craig Colbert was suspended one game Monday for a dispute with umpires last week.

    Colbert will serve the penalty Tuesday night when the Padres play Milwaukee. He was also fined an undisclosed amount by Major League Baseball disciplinarian Bob Watson.

  19. #65@Ben B.: We can sew a different name on his jersey every year. If the short-termer does well, he’s almost certainly going to price himself out of our range, so we don’t benefit from the evaluation period. Hey, great year, have a good time with the 3 year contract somebody else gave you. Then we go looking for next year’s gently (hah) used model.

    Now, it may be true that Baek is an equally good gamble (or close enough for jazz). I don’t think he is, but it’s possible, and he has at least 2 months to show it. I’m completely willing to adopt your chosen Underperforming Asian Pitcher if he starts getting better results.

    #66@SDSUBaseball: As opposed to finding some other ineffective or recently injured pitcher to give 4 million to? Sometimes it works – right now the Cardinals would love to have signed Lohse to a 3/12 deal. We’ve been stuck paying our backend starters more than that for years, getting not only subpar returns but also few innings. If the Padres were going to change the way they did business, then it might make less sense to try to lock up the 4th spot. But almost certainly, the guys they sign to audition for the role are going to cost about 4m and be very risky, and there’s going to be a different set every year, with the cost and the risk staying the same.

    #67@SDSUBaseball: The point is, teams miss on players all the time. It doesn’t mean they’re right. Texas also gave up Agon in that deal. The Padres didn’t protect Soria. The Cardinals signed Carpenter to a massive extension. Igawa not being part of the Yankees current rotation means the Yankees don’t like him. It doesn’t mean he’s lost the ability that led them to cough up 46 million for him last year.

  20. #69@Tom Waits: No it doesnt mean he lost it, but it could mean he never had the ability to perform at this level. I know teams miss on players all the time and missing goes both ways. I jsut dont think they are missing on anything if they pass on Igawa and spend the $4 million elsewhere for the next 3 years… perhaps on a legit #2 starter? I’d prefer to better our rotation from the front back, not from the back forward.

  21. #11@Tom Waits: Is Giles age an issue at all to you? ~ seems like a 60+ game breakdown or injury loss is more possible now with his age and his reckless style.

  22. Today on : this year’s Padres catchers are the 14th worst all-time offensively. (they use EQa as the metric)

    That’s all-time. As in every team, every season, since the beginning of baseball.

    Good job, Bard/Hundley/Barrett/Carlin!

  23. The Padres signed JD Closser to a minor league deal. He is on the Portland roster. Clossers #’s

    Former Padres catcher David Ross (31 years old) has been released by the Reds. Ross wasn’t necessarily having a terrible year for the Reds with an OPS+ @ 96. Ross had 30+ walks in only 160 PA’s -Might not be a bad idea for a club to bring him into camp next year.

  24. #73@David Coonce:

    Luke Carlin OPS+ 34
    Michael Barrett OPS+ 57
    Josh Bard OPS+ 58
    Todd Hundley OPS+ 74

    That is just ugly.

  25. #73@David Coonce: Wow. 14th worst all time is very bad indeed.

  26. #75@Field39: Not sure we can lean on any one of these guys to stablilize the position in 2009. It’s still early for to decide about whether Hundley is an everyday player and Bard seems to be falling apart physically, though he could very well bounce back, seems 50-50 at this point for Bard.
    Bard and Hundley tandem in 2010 doesn’t scare the hell out of me but obviously doesn’t leave me confident either.

  27. #77@JP: I believe that Josh’s inability to control the running game, overrides all other considerations. Having other teams steal at a 90% success rate, is an untendable situation.

  28. #78@Field39: You’re probably right–I always seem to forget that he can’t throw out runners either – must be because until recently, I assumed that it was mostly the Padre’s pitchers who were at fault.

  29. I think catcher is the biggest concern among the eight positions for next year. That may be too obvious of a statement.

  30. #71@Field39: Organizational soldier … already …

    #75@Field39: ‘cept Nick’s name isn’t Todd …

  31. #63@LynchMob: I think they may sign Darnell and Kipnis (although I think Darnell is unlikely) but I think they are already looking to the 09 draft with Dykstra’s pick and I dont see them giving Mooneyham 7 figures…

    Darnell will be tought because I dont see the pads going above slot at this point (espeacialy since they could not dump maddux or Gile’s salary) so I think Darnell will just go back to college for a year and try to get more money next year.

  32. #82@Steve C: If the Padres don’t sign Dykstra and can’t convince Mooneyham to forgo Stanford, then there is no reason why they shouldn’t be able to sign Darnell, even if it means giving him an offer above slot. They would be able to draw from Dykstra’s 1.4M available to use out of their already allotted draft budget. Giles’ and Maddux’s salaries shouldn’t even enter the equation in any case. Kipnis’ status as a draft eligible sophomore has made him the most unlikely signing aside from Mooneyham.

    If they don’t end up signing any one of them, then this will go down as one of the biggest draft debacles in team history this side of Matt Bush, even considering the possibility that they discovered some serious unforeseen health condition with regard to Dykstra. To not sign your 2 and 4 picks with first found draft money still available in such a case would be inexcusable.

  33. #70@SDSUBaseball: Neither do I. Ben and I have been agreeing on that all along.

    #72@JP: Not for 2009. It’s a risk, but it’s 6m, 1 year.

    #83@Bruce: Yes.

  34. #83@Bruce:
    #82@Steve C:

    Today’s UT has a story about the draftees. Fuson says the Darnell negotiations have picked up and he’s “anxiously optimistic” a deal will get done.

    And that may be it. They’re 600K apart with Kipnis. The story doesn’t even mention Mooneyham. And as cold-hearted as it sounds, if Dykstra’s hip (or other) condition is as dangerous as the Padres seem to believe, they have no incentive to sign him even for $1. That forfeits their 09 pick.

  35. #83@Bruce: I think all the money in which the team spends at this point is beeing looked at under the same microscope at the moment.

    #85@Tom Waits: Good to hear about Darnell for some reason I thought that they were still really far apart maybe I eas thinking of Kipins.

  36. #85@Tom Waits: I am not sure Kipnis rates highly enough at this point to throw an extra $600K at him, especially if he believes that he will be one of the stars of a replenishing ASU team.

    #86@Steve C: Fair enough on the money. No one really knows what’s going on.

    Dykstra better be suffering from something fierce though.

  37. #87@Bruce: That’s a big gap. Good for Kipnis that he’s confident enough to believe he can be a first-rounder next year.

    #86@Steve C: They were ~200K apart with Darnell a few weeks back.