I don’t know what you mean by “more meaningful.” Bard and Khalil have been worse than Egon and Headley have been good, but even with those two boat anchors, the Padre offense has clawed its way to respectability.

Just to be clear, I have no opinion on the likelihood of the Padres slashing payroll. It’s a possibility.

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I have tried and tried and tried and I can’t find 7 above-average hitters on this team. If you’re talking about current performance, I suppose you could argue for Giles, A. Gonzalez and Gerut, but I can’t figure out anyone else. I suppose if you’re just looking at OPS+, there are 7 players, sure, but Egon’s rapidly declining (and is league-average anyway in terms of OPS), Kouz and Headley’s defense both cost the team some of the runs they’re providing, Hairston’s a low-average, low-OBP home run hacker; - they’re a dime a dozen. I also don’t believe Giles will be around next year, especially with reports that the Padres will be cutting their payroll in half.

And if you’re using OPS+, which is a flawed statistic anyway, you’d have to argue that Bard’s 58 is more meaningful than EGon’s 101, right? Or that Khalil’s 63 OPS+, in 400 at-bats, is more significant than Headley’s 110 OPS+, in 189 ABs. The Padres have wasted more at=bats on bad performance this year than good - there’s a reason they’re being outscored by 100 runs.

I agree with you though, about the starting rotation. Right now it’s Peavy, Young, Home Run Banks, and god knows who else. Banks isn’t good and Young is never going to pitch more than 170 innings. There’s no help in the minors except for 5th starter types like InMan and LeBlanc, and as you point out, it looks as though the Padres are going to slash payroll in 2009.

SO it’s reasonable to say the 2005-2007 Padres may have been the last gasp for a long while of the Padres. It’s a shame; but when your 2009 roster is riddled with a bunch of 30-something journeymen and 2 effective starting pitchers, this is what you get.

Like I said, it’s not going to be pretty. As a lifelong Padres fan, i hope I’m wrong, I really do. But statistics and history don’t lie.

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1. The Padres have 7 above-average hitters. Giles has been almost as good as Agon this year. The offense as a whole, despite an awful start, is almost average for the year now. Average may not be good enough to win a division unless the pitching is really strong, but “there’s no offense anywhere except at first base” is flat wrong.

2. I basically agree on Kouz / Headley. The current situation doesn’t seem like it can last.

3. The SP for next year is the danger zone. They’re going to need at least two pitchers, and that’s only if Banks continues to be serviceable. That’s probably a bad bet with his low K numbers.

The big problem with the 2009 Padres isn’t that the’re buried by superior talent. They’re not, no matter how badly they’ve played this year. It’s the uncertain ownership situation. That makes me wonder if the front office is already under orders not to take on additional commitments; they had a free shot at Igawa (a guy they’ve liked a lot in the past and who is very likely to outpitch the lumps they normally spend millions on at the back of the rotation) and passed.

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Sadly, Edgar Gonzalez is very quickly reminding me why he’s a 30-year-old rookie. A lot of people here projected some irrational exuberance on his great first month, but I’ve always been wary of career minor-leaguers, and it looks like I was right. E-Gon can’t field his position, and his offensive numbers have taken a tumble. He’s 3 for 30 since July 26th, with 6 errors. I still like him as a utility guy for next year, but he can’t start.

So that leaves, around the horn, your 2009 Padres:
C - ?
1B - AGon
2B - ?
SS - Greene
3B - Kouz
LF - ?
CF - ?
RF - ?

That’s tough. 5 unfilled positions. I suppose you could plug Gerut into one of the outfield positions and Giles back into right (if the Padres pick up his option). I don’t know where Headley plays - he is a brutal outfielder, probably the worst outfielder I’ve ever seen in my life, and all reports are that he was a decent-to-good third baseman in the minors. But Kouz can’t play anywhere else. I hope the Padres can move KK for a decent arm or prospect - he just doesn’t have a fit with this team. And guys with a 318 OBP are a dime a dozen - Kouzmanoff is eminently replaceable, and I hope the Padres do just that - replace him. That moves Headley back to his natural position, and ideally he’ll hit better without the pressure of playing the outfield.

The team still needs a center fielder, and the Padres still need to figure out what to do about catcher. Bard has some nice on-base skills, but can’t stay healthy. Not sure if Hundley or Carlin are anything more than backups.

The pitching staff is another beast entirely. Young and Peavy should still be around, but there’s nobody in the minors to fill out the staff. It’s going to be ugly - not that this season isn’t ugly enough.

I want to be optimistic - I really do. But I can’t see this team, as currently constructed, as being good for a long time. There’s no offense anywhere except at first base, there’s one good starting pitcher, there’s one good reliever, and the defense, aside from AGon, Greene and maybe Gerut, is abysmal. I love 16-7 wins, but the future of this team doesn’t look good.

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For his career: .282

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http://www.baseballamerica.com.....66639.html

High Class A Lake Elsinore Kellen Kulbacki (Padres), a 2007 supplemental first-round pick out of James Madison, delivered with two home runs, a double and eight RBIs in 12 at-bats this week, as the outfielder continues to bash through the California League. Since joining the league on May 5, the lefthanded hitter owns a .349 average with 20 home runs, 16 doubles and 62 RBIs. Kulbacki, 22, leads the lead in batting average, on-base percentage (.441) and slugging percentage (.622).

A third-round pick out of Miami this summer, short-season Eugene center fielder Blake Tekotte (Padres) hit .417/.516/.917 on the week. With four homers in his first 22 games, the 21-year-old Tekotte’s power has been promising. This week, Tekotte had four multi-hit games with five doubles.

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Antonelli at .200 as well!

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http://web.minorleaguebaseball.....a_cspaaa_2

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http://web.minorleaguebaseball.....a_cspaaa_1

… Beaver bully fails again, however …

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