by Geoff Young on Aug 22, 2008
Padres @ Giants
7:15 p.m. PT
Channel 4SD, DIRECTV 745
AM 1090, FM 105.7, XM 186
Tagged as: giants, mlb, padres
Let’s start with some good news … Jaff Decker with a classic box score line from yesterday’s 9-5 win for the AZL Padres …
… 2 hits, including HR #5 on the season, plus a walk … lifting his season line to .343/.524/.547 (50 walks to only 28 Ks with 137 ABs) … playing some CF and RF in the game … sure seems like we’ve got a keeper there, folks!
Also good to see Colin Lynch with 3 nice IPs (only 1 H, with 0 BBs and 5 Ks), for his 5th save …
#1@LynchMob: Also should note that the AZL Padres are now 15-6 in the 2nd half of their short season, currently on a 7 game winning streak, only 1.5 games behind the leader (for a spot in some playoffs, I’d imagine).
Dirk is on the way …
… he’ll start tomorrow’s game! I don’t know that it’s a good idea for him to make his MLB debut as a starter … he’s more of a relief pitcher, if you ask me … but obviously will be rooting for him for several reasons.
In same article, check out Josh Bard’s scouting report on Jaff Decker (Bard is on a rehab assignment with the AZL Padres).
1. Great news for Dirk, and a good matchup. I’d still like to get that #1 pick, but a win for Hayhurst would be awesome.
2. Decker the Hitterish Wonder. Loved that pick when we made it, love it more now.
#3@LynchMob: Now pitching for the San Diego Padres, Dirk Diggler.
I know it’s a cliche, but Dirk Hayhurst is a “feel good story!” Congrats Dirk and kick some *** tonight!!!
#5@Field39: What size cup does that guy wear? He’d be in constant danger of messing up his mechanics due to his unusual weight distribution.
#3@LynchMob: The good thing is that Dirk has a good chance to really start his big league career off on the right foot against a really bad hitting team. The bad thing is that it could give the team a false impression of his overall ability as a starter.
For example, Josh Banks has 4 quality starts out of 13. Two of those have come against the Giants. And it was his complete game victory that really cemented his spot in the rotation for the next two months. Over those two months, he gave up 26 ER’s and 9 HR’s in 44 IP over 8 starts. He might have been on his way out of the rotation, BUT the Giants came just in the nick of time again, as he gave up 1 ER in 7 IP on August 1. And now he’s been awful over his next three. Take out the two games against the Giants and, even with his eight innings of scoreless relief to start the season, his ERA is 5.83.
And my point is … I’ve never seen Dirk pitch before but I’m guessing he is best suited for long or middle-relief and the team should put him in that role after tomorrow instead of giving him another start based on a performance against the Giants. Regardless, the call-up is long overdue. I hope he proves that he can be a valuable long or middle-reliever in 2009 and despite the Padres still a few games back in the Stephen Strasburg race, it would be good to see Dirk debut with a ‘W’.
Kyle Blanks is #1 on Baseball America’s Prospect Hot Sheet:
Also, Strasburg didn’t have a Ben Sheets type game against the Cubans today:
6 strikeouts in only 4 innings is good, although 6 hits isn’t so great. Cuba vs. South Korea (the only undefeated team) for likely the last Gold Medal in Olympic history.
#8@JMAR: Was it those starts by Banks, or the fact that we didn’t have any other options? Tomko went on the shelf, we were already reduced to using Baek and Banks. Are we sure the Padres were really fooled by Banks or was he just the least ugly of the available options?
#9@Schlom: Didn’t look at the rest of the list before I posted it. Decker is 11th while Hunter is 13th (even though he didn’t really have a great week but he had a 22 game hitting stopped yesterday).
#9@Schlom: You mean 5 K’s right? At least he only gave up 2 runs with those 6 hits.
#9@Schlom: I do find it ironic, that they are pulling baseball from the olympics as a slap to the United States and Cuba is likely to win the gold.
#10@Tom Waits: It’s sad to think that he was the least ugly of the options, but it’s probably true. They definitely didn’t have many other options to go with and Ramos, Geer, and LeBlanc weren’t pitching very well at the time. But without that brilliant first start against SF, they would have had a much shorter leash with Banks and KT might’ve been forced to go waiver-wire shopping, where he’s proven to be pretty good on occasion.
I know I was fooled by his first two starts. I’ve been waiting for him to repeat that performance ever since. In his other 11 starts besides the two against SF, he’s shown to be a very limited major league starter. I think it’s time to give someone else a chance to prove that they have the ability to throw a quality start in the majors.
I’d like to see LeBlanc or Ramos get a shot right now. They’ll take their lumps, but I think the feeling is that LeBlanc is going to be a good #4 or 5 starter and Ramos could be an average #5 starter. So why not give them some experience now?
#9@Schlom: I actually woke up to watch the part of the game Strasburg pitched, and he looked pretty good. First of all, I would guess the Cuban all star team roughly translates into an average major league lineup, so it was a tough opponent. Two of the hits were grounders to second the second baseman misplayed into singles. He got a bunch of swings and misses, particularly with his slider. The solid hits he gave up came when he left his fastball up and when he hung one slider badly (which was his only slider the Cubans made contact with all game, I think). All in all I’d still be very excited to draft him next year.
#13@Field39: The reason they are pulling baseball is because MLB won’t release it’s players for the tournament. Fully understandable from both sides I think — obviously no one in MLB really cares about the Olympics while the Olympics have to create the illusion that they are the top priority for all athletes. Not sure that is a direct slap at the US since only Korea has all their best players playing (Japan’s league is on hiatus but they obviously have more stars in MLB then Korea).
#12@SDSUBaseball: Yeah, 5 K’s (stupid typing fingers). Obviously Sheets’ performance was better but he was a lot older then Strasburg (Sheets was in his first professional season and had just turned 22 while Strasburg has just turned 20. I’d forgotten that Sheets got drafted in 1999, I thought he got drafted in 2000).
#11@Schlom: Baseball America is recognizing three of our guys. I don’t think that’s ever happened before. Despite this crappy season, there are finally some really good things going on down on the farm. A lot to look forward to as a Padre fan. Not sure about 2009 yet, but we should start to see some really good, young ballplayers in 2010 and beyond.
#11@Schlom: THANKS for the link to BA’s PHS … AWESOME to see Blanks and Decker and Hunter get some recognition … they have been HOT!!!
(Warning: The Giants have 2 of the top 4 on the list … just sayin’)
OT … a good/fun look at one perspective on the Top 50-60 players in the game today …
The Ultimate Fantasy Draft
… Jake checks in at #12 … ahead of Webb and Lincecum … behind Santana and Sabathia … fair enough, if you ask me.
25 stolen bases on the season as a team for the Padres. The lowest total by any team in 25 years. Now that we have lost our biggest stolen base threat in Greg Maddux, lord knows if the Pads will steal anymore this season.
#20@JP: Honestly at this point in the season, who cares?
#19@LynchMob: Thanks LM! Fun to see the top 25 after reading the others yesterday. Did I miss Adrian’s name?!?!?! Not even an honorable mention ranking; that stinks! You’d think the guys at BP understand how to adjust for park factors. Sheesh!
#22@Pat: Yeah, no Adrian is sort of odd.
Well, to be fair, it looks like most of the list waqs younger than Adrian (excluding pitchers) and the position players on the list older than Gonzalez were Utley, ARod and Pujols, each of whom is far better than AGon. BP also didn’t seem to place much – if any – emphasis on defense, which would explain Hanley Ramirez at #1. Plus, just not a lot of first basemen on that kind of list, period. Adrian is a great offensive first baseman, and the Padres are lucky to have him, but almost every team has a good offensive first baseman; they’re much easier to find than guys like Sizemore, Granderson, Utley or an ace pitcher. A great bat at 2B, SS, 3B or CF is always going to trump a great bat at 1B or LF.
We’re all well aware of the defensive spectrum, but you are correct.
#24@David Coonce: Well said … and certainly true in MLB … but even more true in “Fantasy” … which was the point of the list … kinda the same phenomena of Adrian having a hard time making the All-Star team …
#25@Lance Richardson: I think that’s overstated … the “all well aware” part, not the “you are correct” part …
If you missed DePo’s blog entry yesterday, it’s very much worth checking out …
… he takes a look at some of the early returns from the 2008 draft.
#23@Kevin: Not really. I don’t think you can make any kind of argument that Adrian is one of the top fifty most valuable commodities in baseball.
I love Adrian but I fail to see any argument that says he’s a Top 25 player in value in MLB over the next six years.
I guess if you have supreme confidence that he can add better plate discipline, then combined with park effects, he’d likely be there, but Adrian is a very good 1B. That’s valuable, but Top 25 valuable?
Adrian has the 31st highest VORP amongst hitters this year. Of course he has nice defense, so that’s a boost, but there are 20 or so pitchers in front of him as well.
I thought he might make honorable mention or something, but Top 25…
Phrased another way, who on the list do you not trade Adrian for, given that it’s for the next six years, money is not an issue in this ranking, real contract length isn’t an issue (you control the player all six years)? I’d trade him for every player there.
#28@Richard Wade: Prince Fielder showed up on the list at 35. Adrian is hitting better than him this year, is probably worth 10 runs more per defense per season, and is probably 60 lbs lighter. On the other hand, Fielder outhit him significantly last year and is two years younger than him. For the next six years I think they’re about equal, or at least close enough that Adrian would have been mentioned somewhere.
Mad dog is on the bump in Philly. It took him eleven pitches to get through the first two innings.
#26@LynchMob: You don’t think the Ducksnorts readers are all aware of the defensive spectrum? Which of us do you suspect to be a cretin who only just crawled out of a cave he’s resided in since before Bill James learned to type???
I think Adrian would have fit nicely amongst the honorable mentions.
Not to nitpick, but Fielder’s opposition has been much much better than Adrian’s this season. the NL West is awful, while the Central has three legitimately good teams.
#32@Lance Richardson: I don’t want to name names … and now you’ve lowered the standard … previously you stated “well aware” … now you’re just saying “aware” … it was the “well” part I was more concerned about than the “all” part … I don’t want any of us here to get pompus … do you?
#29@Alan: That’s a good argument. Honorable mention sounds about right. Mostly I saw Fielder and thought, “hey, Adrian’s about that good.” Fielder had a massive season last year though, so that probably gives him more upside going forward.
#34@David Coonce: But it’s mostly the offenses that are terrible in the NL West. The pitching is actually really good. The Dodgers and Diamondbacks have some of the best pitching in baseball, and the Giants still have Lincecum and Cain.
I think the futures of Howard and Fielder are questionable because of their weights. I think their career arcs might follow that of Cecil Fielder.
According to milb.com, San Antonio is 2.5 game out of a playoff spot (assuming Frisco wins 2nd Half) …
First-half Winners: Arkansas (North), Frisco (South)
Second-half Leaders: NW Arkansas (North), Frisco (South)
In the North, the Naturals’ once-comfortable lead over Springfield has dwindled down to a mere game. The two clubs conclude a four-game set tonight as the Cardinals seek to take three of four in the series. The South is even closer, as Midland and first-half champion Frisco are tied. The two clubs begin an all-important three-game series against one another on Saturday. If Frisco repeats, the playoff spot will go to the club with the best overall record. Midland currently has a 2.5 game lead over San Antonio in that particular race, and the two clubs are set to begin a four-game series on Tuesday.
#34@David Coonce: The pitching in the NL West is probably equally as good as the central.
#34@David Coonce: Its not nitpicking, its fishing. Adrian hit very well in 2006 and 2007 when the West was “good” and the Central was piss poor.
JP … you listening to the San Antonio game tonight? They are playing Frisco …
… Frisco walks the #2 and #3 guys head of Kyle Blanks … who delivers an RBI single … Missions up 1-0 early … yowza!
re: Adrian Gonzales, I’d take him over Fielder at this point. Still, he’s not top 25 but honorable mention would have been nice. He deserves that at the least.
Go Dirk Hayhurst. Welcome to the Show. Should be pretty good against the Gigantes.
Of course, having Lincecum across the dugout is not going to make the win any easier. Earn it, Padres. I’m sick of the losing even if I’ve given up on the winning streak, on the NL West title, on the .500 mark, on going to the playoof, on and on and on and on. Gosh darn it, beat the Giants. Fourth place is for the taking.
41: only a single? I expected a bomb from Blanks…not picking nit or anything.
#43@Didi: Its not nitpicking, its fishing … whatever that means
Yo … Jeremy McBryde with an eye-popping outing tonight for Ft Wayne …
… 12 Ks and 0 BBs in 5 IP … they touched him for 2 runs on 3 hits in a 3rd inning rally … but, wow, that’s some Ks!!!
A commenter on MadFriars is saying that San Antonio’s Garrison has gone on the DL and is out for the season … I’ve seen no other info … bummer …
#36@Ben B.: I think the main difference is that Fielder is two years younger. Add in that huge year he had last year (A-Gon has just barely slugged over .500 the past three seasons) and I don’t think there are many people that would rather have Gonzalez then Fielder. Fielder’s weight might make him age quicker then expected but he’s still a much better bet going forward.
I’m sorry but I’m having a hard time getting into the rest of this season. I’m watching. But with waning interest. Ack.
Big laugher going on in St. Louis in the bottom of the 7th. Cards up 15-1 over the Braves.
dreadful AB from Headley.
As far as the rest of these posts go, I’m not sure if I’d rather have Fielder or Agon – Fielder’s carrer arc is going to be much higher but shorter, while Adrian’s career might end up being similar to that of Wally Joyner. While I think Gonzalez will be better than that, there is a fear that a slow guy with poor on-base skills will age quickly. I hope – and think – I’m wrong.