by Geoff Young on Aug 20, 2008
Padres @ Diamondbacks
6:40 p.m. PT
Channel 4SD, DIRECTV 740
AM 1090, FM 105.7, XM 188
Tagged as: diamondbacks, mlb, padres
Gerut’s gapper to begin the game begs the question: Would you rather have Gerut or Fukudome? Regardless of price, I think I’d take Gerut. Considering their contracts, it isn’t even close.
Fukudome’s play was the big story in Chicago. He hasn’t hit in 2 months and his defense has been suspect. Pinella has voiced his displeasure about Fukudome, saying that he might sit if he doesn’t pick it up.
Gerut’s price tag continues to rise. He’s now officially a .300 hitter and will no longer be a bargain this offseason.
Kouz’ value is also rising, which is good if they do plan on trading him this offseason. But if they don’t, we know we have a 3B who is good for at least a .285 BA and 25 HR. Still, I think they’ll probably need to trade him for some pitching if they want to right the ship.
“3B” should be in parentheses. Kouzmanoff should be at first or DH, and since one of those positions doesn’t exist in San Diego, and the other one is manned by a much better player, he should be trade bait this offseason.
Also, Peavy, looking absolutely awful tonight. Not that wins and losses matter anymore, but I at least wanted to enjoy this game…
#5@David Coonce: What evidence do you have that Kouz should be a first baseman or a DH? Every defensive metric I’ve seen has him ranked as a slightly below average third baseman, around -5 runs per season.
Josh Geer is starting tonight for Portland, which I assume rules him out for the start on Saturday.
Peavy is (or was) the ERA leader but he hasn’t seemed to be nearly as dominant as he was last season. I’ve been looking for a stat to back it up and this one tells a big part of the story. In ’07, he gave up 13 HR in 2231. IP (1 every 17.2 IP). This season, he’s given up 15 HR in 136 IP (1 every 9.1). Nearly twice as often. Still one of the top pitchers in the game, though. Hopefully his ’09 will be more like ’07.
Well, I guess because I’ve watched him play third for two seasons now and he is absolutely atrocious out there. His numbers are a little bit better this season than last, I’ll grant you that, but he’s blocking Headley (who can’t play left field at all), and is probably the Padres only tradeable asset. he doesn’t hit enough to play anywhere but third, so it’s time to move him before he has a Greene-type season.
If Jake ever brings up run support again, they need to show him this game in a loop, Clockwork Orange style.
KK is all but guaranteed to be an ex-Padre in the offseason.
#9@David Coonce: I don’t think Kouz has been that bad at third. He’s been average. Headley might be a little better defensively but I haven’t seen him enough there to know for sure. No question their team defense would be better if Kouz were traded but that’s mostly because the improvement would come from having a better defender in left field, not so much at 3B.
#9@David Coonce: He doesnt hit enough to play anywhere but 3B? Arent 3B normally good hitters? Also, Kouz hasnt been nearly as bad as you make him out to be and while Chase may be better defensively at 3B, we have no idea if he will be a better player than Kouz.
Now if they can trade Kouz for some pitching, then yes the team will most likely overall improve (moving Headley to 3B and Hairtson? to left).
All the metrics I’ve seen as well as my own eyes say that Kouz has improved greatly at third from last season.
He’ll never have great range, but he’s really cut down on throwing errors to the point where when he gets to the ball, he’s very consistent. No longer a huge issue.
That said, I think #11 is right — putting a 3B in LF is a misallocation of resources and I think it is clear Headley is considered a better player by the Pads.
Third Basemen are normally “tweeners” – not enough offense to play the outfield or first, more offense than the average 2B or SS. Kouz fits this to a tee – his on-base skills are dreadful (he’s drawn 14 walks this season), he strikes out a ton, but can probably hit 270 with 25 homers for a few years, and that’s a tradeable asset, especially since kouzmanoff can’t really field his position. The Padres can easily shift Headley to third and get similar production, while sorting through various players in left.
Nice at bat there by Gerut.
#15@David Coonce: Not sure if I agree with you there. 3B often supply more offense than OFs.
You only have to look at two stats to know that Kouz is going to be shopped in the offseason: 16 BB’s and 99 K’s. Not even Josh Barfield’s BB-K ratio was that bad his rookie season (30 BB’s, 81 K’s) or his first season in Cleveland (14 BB’s, 90 K’s).
It’s interesting that Kouz was not this much of a hacker in the minors. His BB-K ratio was actually quite good. He had 33 BB’s and 46 K’s in 346 AB’s in his last minor league season in ’06. I think the Padres thought they were trading away a hacker in Barfield for a guy who could control the strike zone in Kouz. But it turned out to be one hacker for another hacker. Fortunately, we’ve got the more productive hacker.
Historically, you’re wrong. There are only 8 HOF 3B for a reason. Even looking at current third basemen, only a few “supply more offense” than OF – ARod, Wright, Lowell, Longoria, Chipper Jones, and maybe Troy Glaus. Every other 3B is a worse offensive producer than the average outfielder.
#9@David Coonce:I watch him practically everyday as well. He looks awkward out there sometimes and is hardly fluid, but I think it is a far stretch to say he is atrocious at third. I would say that slightly below average is the better summation.
#18@JMAR: Totally agree, because Kouz is so unselective it portends danger/ lack of upside to potential bidders.
Sorry, there are 10 HOF 3B – I wasn’t counting the two Negro leaguers but I should have.
#19@David Coonce: They are under-represented. Ron Santo should be in.
I agree. There should be 11 3B in the HOF. But that doesn’t deny that the position has always been a “tweener” position; that is, not all offense, not all defense. Kouzmanoff is neither.
#21@JP: Fortunately, I think there are some teams out there that pay less attention to OBP. They’ll see the 20+ HR’s and .285 BA and offer something of value in return. At least that’s what I’m hoping and that’s why I’m cheering for him to get to at least .290-25-85 by season’s end.
#24@David Coonce: There might should be more. People don’t know how to judge because of what you just said — it’s a “tweener.”
STOP WALKING PEOPLE, PADRES PITCHERS!!!!
That is all.
agreed – 3B is the most underrepersented position in baseball. But there are two – Lindstrom and Kell, who shouldn’t be in there, which brings us back to 8, minus Santo, who should be in.
Yeah, and, by the way, as a Padres fan, this game is sucking my soul from me.
KYLE BLANKS TRACKER: .315 BA, 16 HR, 89 RBI … after going 4-5, HR, 4 RBI’s in tonight’s game. It’s 10-10 in the 9th so maybe he’ll bat again. The guy is having one heck of a season in AA at age 21.
#28@David Coonce: Darrell Evans makes a strong case. Graig Nettles maybe. Ken Boyer.
There may be no Padres pitcher who I dislike more than Wilfredo Ledezma.
Thanks for the Blanks update JMAR ! I really think he is the real deal. He carries himself like a major leaguer when you see him play –it’s hard to believe that he is 21.
#27@Ben B.: Just when I start thinking Hensley and Ledezma are starting to turn the corner, they lose the strike zone again. It is encouraging that before tonight, Hensley had tossed a scoreless outing in 7 of his last 8 appearances. Ledezma had gone scoreless in 8 of 9. But this is very discouraging.
According to Baseball Prospectus, Kouz is 10 runs above average hitting this year. He’s a good player. He’s an above average third baseman. You don’t have to hit like Chipper Jones or field like Scott Rolen to be an asset at third. And there’s no requirement that a player draw a certain number of walks to have value.
#30@JMAR: I would not be suprised, if they trade Kyle in the off season. They may package him with a AA pitcher and try to fill a hole.
This is a great argument:
You don’t have to hit or field to be an asset at your position.
Then what do you have to do? Cartwheels? Make funny faces?
I love Kevin Kouzmanoff; He is a far better player than Josh Barfield. But the Padres need to trade him before he turns into a pumpkin.
#35@Field39: I agree, especially now that they’ve signed Dykstra and have another power-hitting 1B in Matt Clark at Eugene. Blanks is probably one of their top trading chips when the offseason gets started.
While I agree with you about Nettles and Evans, the HOF will never let a guy in with a below 250 BA. I don’t think that’s right – frankly, Nettles and Evans were very good players who did everything well except hit for average – but average sells, and the HOF ain’t buying the extremely qualified arguments Nettles and Evans have. Boyer is not in the same class as them, though -he’s more (non-steroid) Ken Caminiti than legit Hall-of-Famer.
But this argument is for another time; Kouz isn’t a bad player; he’s just not a sufficiently good player for the Padres to build around. He blocks a better player (Headley) and is unable to play any other position. Therefore, it is in the team’s best interest to find him a new home. And soon, while his value is high.
#36@David Coonce: No, I’m saying you don’t have to be an MVP level hitter like Jones or a Gold Glover like Rolen to be an asset. Slightly above average and under team control for cheap is a great combination. The Padres very well could trade Kouz if they think the return plus his replacement make the team better, but there is no replacement currently on the team or in the farm system that would improve the team over Kouz.
What evidence do you have that Kouz is going to suddenly collapse? I can see an argument that players with poor strikeout to walk ratios are more susceptible to sudden collapse, but there needs to be evidence to back that up before asserting he’s going to randomly collapse.
Wow, nice of Mike Adams to step in and restore a little order.
#38@David Coonce: That’s a good argument. I think because Kouz is so cheap, he’s a good building block. However, if the organization thinks someone else like Venable could step in and be a little below average offensively, it probably improves the team to trade Kouz.
Though he flied out, I thought that Egon had a very good at bat against Rauch. Egon has been a decent find this year as well. Nice bat off the bench and he of course can play several positions.
Are we sure that this is the same Jody Gerut ?
#43@JP: Look at his rookie year. He is healthy, why wouldnt it be the same one haha.
Jody Gerut is out of his mind.
#19@David Coonce: Worse than the average outfielder? That is wrong. Kouz probably out performs the “average” OF.
#44@SDSUBaseball : How long ago was that good rookie year for Gerut : 6 years ago ? Would you have told me in March of 2008 that a healthy Jody Gerut would be of near equal value to Shane Victorino ?
#38@David Coonce: A pumpkin? He has put together two good seasons, one being his rookie season. How can you assume he turn into a pumpkin. You are also assuming Chases is a better player than him, which is possible, but at this point not at all true.
#47@JP: A healthy one? Yes, I saw it as a possibility. I have been excited about him since ST. Did I think he was a sure thing? No. I did think he had the chance of playing at the level he is though. He started a little slow, then found his eye and started hitting and now he is finding his power stroke again. I think it would be in the Pad’s best interest to sign him up for 3 years ASAP.
#48@SDSUBaseball:I do not see Kouz turning into a pumpkin, but this is a 100 loss team. If someone comes a calling KT will be listening.