Comments on: IGD: Padres vs Braves (13 Jul 08) http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2008/07/igd-padres-vs-braves-13-jul-08.html Blogging the San Diego Padres baseball club. Established 1997. Thu, 04 Dec 2008 22:49:54 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.2 By: Richard Wade http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2008/07/igd-padres-vs-braves-13-jul-08.html#comment-210696 Richard Wade Mon, 14 Jul 2008 05:30:24 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/?p=2660#comment-210696 #26@<a href="#comment-210665" rel="nofollow">Stephen</a>: Same with Joe Sheehan at BP: "Today, Inman provided a great lesson in the value of observation versus stats. He’s had solid performance lines in his four professional season, and the stats make him look like a midrotation prospect. In person, he’s…awkward. I’m not sure how you get to the third-highest level of your profession and still do things the way Inman does, but he has. He has the longest arm action I can remember seeing, the kind of motion you cringe while watching. It also should leave him very exposed to lefthanded hitters. I could see him as a Jeff Nelson reliever, which limits his innings and lets him chew up righties. Anything else…unlikely. I can’t emphasize what an eye-opener this was. I’m not going to sit here and say that performance analysis is invalid and I’m headed over to start a Web site devoted to the advancement of scouts, but the gap between what a player does and how he does it-and what that means for his future-was really put into stark relief by watching Inman."<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-210696">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> #26@Stephen: Same with Joe Sheehan at BP:

“Today, Inman provided a great lesson in the value of observation versus stats. He’s had solid performance lines in his four professional season, and the stats make him look like a midrotation prospect. In person, he’s…awkward. I’m not sure how you get to the third-highest level of your profession and still do things the way Inman does, but he has. He has the longest arm action I can remember seeing, the kind of motion you cringe while watching. It also should leave him very exposed to lefthanded hitters. I could see him as a Jeff Nelson reliever, which limits his innings and lets him chew up righties. Anything else…unlikely.

I can’t emphasize what an eye-opener this was. I’m not going to sit here and say that performance analysis is invalid and I’m headed over to start a Web site devoted to the advancement of scouts, but the gap between what a player does and how he does it-and what that means for his future-was really put into stark relief by watching Inman.”

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]]> By: Paul http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2008/07/igd-padres-vs-braves-13-jul-08.html#comment-210671 Paul Mon, 14 Jul 2008 03:33:58 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/?p=2660#comment-210671 26: He did seem to throw pretty severely across his body. He's been discounted for his whole career, but he continues to strike people out at a 10/9IP rate at every level.<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-210671">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> 26: He did seem to throw pretty severely across his body. He’s been discounted for his whole career, but he continues to strike people out at a 10/9IP rate at every level.

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]]> By: Stephen http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2008/07/igd-padres-vs-braves-13-jul-08.html#comment-210665 Stephen Mon, 14 Jul 2008 03:01:21 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/?p=2660#comment-210665 KLaw dismissed Inman. (scouts laughed at his delivery, fringe-average fastball, throws severely across his body)<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-210665">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> KLaw dismissed Inman. (scouts laughed at his delivery, fringe-average fastball, throws severely across his body)

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]]> By: malcolm http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2008/07/igd-padres-vs-braves-13-jul-08.html#comment-210622 malcolm Mon, 14 Jul 2008 00:29:32 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/?p=2660#comment-210622 Tom, I agree with both points,yet it's the variation in the ratio of OBP an SLG and the resulting RPG which goes against current thinking here that is interesting. Reviewing the #'s I see that although the OBP% was higher at home by 10%,BA was lower--- .251 on the road and .244 at home. From a pure statistical standpoint, I'm thinking the high ratio of walks in the home OBP caused the RPG to be lower when the OBP% was higher than SLG. I suspect that the OBP value in relationship to SLG is much closer to1:1 than 1.8 or higher to 1 for the Padres, when OBP has a high % of BB. Larger universe would be interesting.<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-210622">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> Tom, I agree with both points,yet it’s the variation in the ratio of OBP an SLG and the resulting RPG which goes against current thinking here that is interesting. Reviewing the #’s I see that although the OBP% was higher at home by 10%,BA was lower— .251 on the road and .244 at home. From a pure statistical standpoint, I’m thinking the high ratio of walks in the home OBP caused the RPG to be lower when the OBP% was higher than SLG. I suspect that the OBP value in relationship to SLG is much closer to1:1 than 1.8 or higher to 1 for the Padres, when OBP has a high % of BB. Larger universe would be interesting.

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]]> By: Tom Waits http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2008/07/igd-padres-vs-braves-13-jul-08.html#comment-210609 Tom Waits Sun, 13 Jul 2008 23:50:23 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/?p=2660#comment-210609 #23@<a href="#comment-210593" rel="nofollow">malcolm</a>: Off the top of my head, and a head which has been testing a 60 Minute IPA most of the afternoon, I'd say: 1. Too small a sample to do much with., and really not that much variance. 10 points of road slugging seems pretty small. 2. It takes relatively more offense to plate runs in a low-scoring environment. The runs you score with a 700 offense on the road might require a 780 OPS in Petco. Maybe. I'm sure there are people like MB who could do the underlying math way better than me, even if I hadn't spent the last few hours contracting my mind.<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-210609">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> #23@malcolm: Off the top of my head, and a head which has been testing a 60 Minute IPA most of the afternoon, I’d say:

1. Too small a sample to do much with., and really not that much variance. 10 points of road slugging seems pretty small.
2. It takes relatively more offense to plate runs in a low-scoring environment. The runs you score with a 700 offense on the road might require a 780 OPS in Petco. Maybe.

I’m sure there are people like MB who could do the underlying math way better than me, even if I hadn’t spent the last few hours contracting my mind.

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]]> By: malcolm http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2008/07/igd-padres-vs-braves-13-jul-08.html#comment-210593 malcolm Sun, 13 Jul 2008 23:05:52 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/?p=2660#comment-210593 Tom W. Could you look at my comment #14 yesterday and weigh in on what those #'s mean to you, if anything?<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-210593">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> Tom W. Could you look at my comment #14 yesterday and weigh in on what those #’s mean to you, if anything?

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]]> By: Tom Waits http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2008/07/igd-padres-vs-braves-13-jul-08.html#comment-210581 Tom Waits Sun, 13 Jul 2008 22:24:08 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/?p=2660#comment-210581 #20@<a href="#comment-210578" rel="nofollow">Pudge</a>: Boston's a smart front office. They know Greene's stock is down, but they also know he's been a league-average hitter with above-average defense every year but this one. He's not hitting well anywhere this year, but his extreme fly ball splits would play well in Fenway. He's the kind of player a smart front office buys low and hopes to cash in on. And there's little risk for them, because he's not making much and is only signed through next year. It may be the wrong time for us to sell on Greene, but that doesn't mean it's the wrong time for someone else to buy.<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-210581">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> #20@Pudge: Boston’s a smart front office. They know Greene’s stock is down, but they also know he’s been a league-average hitter with above-average defense every year but this one. He’s not hitting well anywhere this year, but his extreme fly ball splits would play well in Fenway. He’s the kind of player a smart front office buys low and hopes to cash in on. And there’s little risk for them, because he’s not making much and is only signed through next year.

It may be the wrong time for us to sell on Greene, but that doesn’t mean it’s the wrong time for someone else to buy.

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]]> By: Kevin http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2008/07/igd-padres-vs-braves-13-jul-08.html#comment-210579 Kevin Sun, 13 Jul 2008 22:19:09 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/?p=2660#comment-210579 #20@<a href="#comment-210578" rel="nofollow">Pudge</a>: He has extreme home-road splits, at least in most seasons.<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-210579">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> #20@Pudge: He has extreme home-road splits, at least in most seasons.

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]]> By: Pudge http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2008/07/igd-padres-vs-braves-13-jul-08.html#comment-210578 Pudge Sun, 13 Jul 2008 22:16:16 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/?p=2660#comment-210578 I dont think Greene will bring much at all. I don't understand what Boston is going to get out of Greene that we can't. Is he struggling because he does'nt have a Manny or Papi in the lineup? No, he struggles because he is terrible.hitter. Falls behind in the count and gets killed on the outside curve/slider balls. The book on Greene is written and and everyone in MLB knows it. Hard for me to believe thaT the fans in Boston are going to love his act.<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-210578">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> I dont think Greene will bring much at all. I don’t understand what Boston
is going to get out of Greene that we can’t. Is he struggling because he does’nt have a Manny or Papi in the lineup? No, he struggles because he is terrible.hitter. Falls behind in the count and gets killed on the outside curve/slider balls. The book on Greene is written and
and everyone in MLB knows it. Hard for me to believe thaT the fans in Boston are going to love his act.

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]]> By: Field39 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2008/07/igd-padres-vs-braves-13-jul-08.html#comment-210571 Field39 Sun, 13 Jul 2008 21:45:14 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/?p=2660#comment-210571 Is it November yet?<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-210571">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> Is it November yet?

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