Tue, Jul 1, 2008
by Geoff Young
Padres @ Rockies
6:05 p.m. PT
Channel 4SD, DIRECTV 743
AM 1090, FM 105.7, XM 187
MLB, B-R
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
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Tags: mlb, padres, rockies
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Due to repeated violations of the Comments Policy and a lack of time by yours truly to adequately moderate the discussion, comments have been temporarily disabled. There is no timetable for their return. Thanks, Geoff.
July 1, 2008 at 8:27 am
GY … sorry you didn’t get to see a better game yesterday … Beavers @ Sacramento …
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.....a_srcaaa_1
… Germano with 8 IP, 5 Rs … Huber and Ciofrone with HRs … 5-3 loss … no Antonelli … bleh …
July 1, 2008 at 8:29 am
The AA Missions went down 4-3 in 11 …
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.....x_sanaax_1
… Huffman 2-for-3 with a double.
July 1, 2008 at 8:30 am
Storm boyz with a blah 7-4 loss …
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.....a_visafa_1
July 1, 2008 at 8:31 am
Wizard’s pitcher Wynn Pelzer is moving up on my mental prospect list …
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.....x_ftwafx_1
… 8Ks in 5 IP to lead a 6-2 win …
July 1, 2008 at 8:32 am
Sawyer Carroll with 2 of the 3 Emeralds hits in 1-0 loss to S-K …
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.....x_eugasx_1
July 1, 2008 at 8:33 am
Jaff Decker with first 0-fer day in 9-5 loss by AZL Padres …
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.....k_giarok_1
July 1, 2008 at 8:36 am
Holy Smokes … did the Padres score 5 in the 6th to tie, and 7 in the 9th to blow it open? Yes!
22 hits! 4 by Edgar … 4 by OG … 4 HRs (2 by Edgar, KK, and Gerut) … a bit o’ Rocky-ball to put some life into the team and us fans!
I’m looking forward to seeing how Josh Banks’ repetoire works at high altitude …
July 1, 2008 at 9:22 am
In prep for meeting with Paul DePodesta (courtesy of Baseball Prospectus) a week from Friday (ie. July 11th) …
http://www.baseballprospectus......red/?p=922
… I’m trying to think of what one question I would ask him … my brainstorm list currently includes …
- What’s the learning from losing Soria to the Rule 5 draft?
- Does Bud Black call for bunt too often?
- How patient is too patient for a hitter?
- Why is Matt Antonelli struggling at AAA?
- What are the short, medium, and long term expectations for the DR facility?
- What was the thinking behind both the signing and the releasing of Jim Edmonds? Lesson?
- Why do the Padres have a 12-man pitching staff?
- Why acquire Tomko?
- What should a Padre fan’s expectations be? (ex. should we expect seasons like ‘05 thru ‘08 or should we expect something different (such as a more focus’d push to a run of contention)?
That last question still needs some formuation in my own mind …
July 1, 2008 at 9:43 am
#8@LynchMob: If you only get 1 from that list, the thinking behind the Rule 5 has the best chance of getting an answer that means something…Maybe the DR facility, but I am guessing the enthusiasm for that place will be the focus…methinks the rest of the questions will get answers that don’t really give much info.
July 1, 2008 at 10:16 am
The UT has an article today saying that the Padres are primed to spend $4 million on 3 Latin American players: http://www3.signonsandiego.com.....ux/?padres
“The Padres have bid a franchise-record total of more than $4 million for three players in Latin America — Venezuelan pitcher Adis Portillo, Venezuelan outfielder Luis Domoromo and Dominican shortstop Alvari Aristy.”
July 1, 2008 at 10:52 am
#9@Coronado Mike: Bingo … that’s the trade-off I’m trying to think about … so many questions sound good, but for one reason or another, can’t or don’t bear fruit …
What’s something you think might be unique to DePo’s job and/or background and/or expertise that would be good to try to get him to share?
July 1, 2008 at 10:58 am
I think that the Tomko acquisition only makes sense if either/both of Maddux and Wolf are going to be moved before the deadline.
It might be interesting to ask for scouting reports on the DR guys that we just signed. They’ll be willing to talk about them
July 1, 2008 at 11:05 am
#12@Paul R: Its lookling like Maddux, Wolf, Giles, Kouz and Iguchi (when healthy) will all be gone by July 30th…
July 1, 2008 at 11:10 am
Don’t be too sure on Maddux. He has full no-trade
July 1, 2008 at 11:11 am
…likewise Giles. We have a VERY reasonable option on him for next year. It only makes sence to give up on OG if we have a RF that’s as good for 2009.
July 1, 2008 at 11:36 am
#15@Peter Friberg: You dont think Huffman will be ready?
July 1, 2008 at 11:37 am
or they could move Guret to right and aquire a true CF?
July 1, 2008 at 11:37 am
#11@LynchMob: I am curious about the arbitration process…doesn’t he handle that?
What about any particular metrics the Padres use to analyze players?
I don’t know, that is why I BS for a living and not really ask questions.
July 1, 2008 at 12:02 pm
#17@Steve C: At this point, I’m totally pleased with Gerut in CF. He’s made several stellar plays and hasn’t hurt us defensively. I’m not sure that’s our biggest priority.
July 1, 2008 at 12:19 pm
Re. 15: Huffman can’t play RF
Re. 4: I have Wynn Pelzer as my “Padres MiLB June 30, Pitcher of the Day” (click on my name to go to my site)
July 1, 2008 at 1:24 pm
I guess I Just don’t see the Padres being able to piece together a contender next year from spare parts, they will lose Hoffman, Maddux, Barrett, and possibly Wolf …I think next year they are going to go into full re-build mode and see what fruit their farm system can bare at this point. Keeping Giles around for an extra $6 Mil just does not make since to me, especially if they can trade him for someone who may be part of the team for the next 4 or 5 years.
July 1, 2008 at 1:24 pm
#16@Steve C: Giles has been the best hitter on the team this season. Do you think Huffman will be ready to step in and be the best hitter on the team next year?
July 1, 2008 at 1:30 pm
There’s no way anyone in our system replaces Giles and his .400 OBP. I don’t see anyone capable, frankly.
That said, the question is: does this team compete even next year? And what can we get for Giles?
July 1, 2008 at 1:31 pm
#22@Richard Wade: I don’t know I have never seen Huffman play but my point is that Huffman may be able to help this team down the road when they are a contender again Giles won’t unless the Pads have a complete philosophy change and decide to make a big splash in the FA pool this offseason (which I’m not trying to advocate).
July 1, 2008 at 2:28 pm
#23@Alan: The biggest question is whether or not the front office intends to compete next year. If they do, it will be very difficult to justify trading Giles unless they are offered some sort of ridiculous deal. I mean, you don’t just go and trade your best hitter for nothing.
July 1, 2008 at 2:30 pm
13 pitchers now. Just for Coors maybe?
July 1, 2008 at 2:31 pm
#25@Richard Wade: What changes can they make to be able to compete next year?
July 1, 2008 at 2:43 pm
#26@Richard Wade: 13 pitchers now? Who did they call up?
July 1, 2008 at 2:52 pm
#27@Steve C: These are just possibilities.
July Trades
Wolf for Matt Murton to play RF (Giles shifting to LF)
Maddux for Lillibridge
Offseason Moves
Sign Oliver Perez
If Gerut continues to hit the rest of the year, he’s your starting CF
Depending on how KG finishes the year, consider trading him to the Orioles for Ramon Hernandez and cash
A lot of things could happen, of course. JJ Hardy could get hurt and a Greene/Maddux trade might land us Bush and more. I can see trying for a maximum return on all the vets, but it’s really not that far-fetched to see the 09 Padres doing what the 08 Padres should have done, winning 86+ games. That would be a lot harder without OG.
July 1, 2008 at 3:00 pm
#29@Tom Waits: I forgot to add, trade Kouzmanoff if the return is sufficient. Otherwise he’s a bench player in 2009, but a bench player with 300+ at-bats.
July 1, 2008 at 3:02 pm
#29
I agree with Wolf for Murton, I think that makes sense
I could also see another team like the Cardinals or Braves want to bring in Giles even at his rate to provide some veteran stability in the outfield - so combine him with another pitcher for a CF prospect. The dream here is we trade a few players (Giles, Meredith, Ramos) for Colby Rasmus
Talk about trading Maddux to either the Rays, Phillies or Yankees who need a stable presence in their pitching staff - could net a decent prospect in return (Yankees - maybe Alan Howe?)
July 1, 2008 at 3:36 pm
will a lineup of:
Guret
E-Gon
Giles
A-Gon
Murton
Headley
Greene
Bard
with a rotation of
Peavy
Young
Banks
Perez
Lablanc/Geer
really get them 86 wins next year…
July 1, 2008 at 3:43 pm
#27@Steve C: If they were healthy with average luck this year they’d be competing right now. They probably don’t need to make many changes.
July 1, 2008 at 3:43 pm
#32@Steve C: All 8 of those hitters can be league-average or better (100 OPS+ or whatever measure we want to use). Only Agon and Giles are very likely to be great hitters. Greene and Bard may be the most likely to underachieve. But a lineup that wasn’t any better than that won 89 games last year, and it wasn’t overachieving. It wasn’t all Jenga, either.
That starting pitching staff could easily be the best in baseball. We’d probably have enough money to try for an upgrade in the LeBlanc / Geer spot. Again, that’s a staff that looks better than the 2007 Padres. Perez is volatile, but he’s also a potential ace.
The big question would be, is that team strong enough to win if Arizona or LA take a step forward. It doesn’t have much superstar talent.
July 1, 2008 at 3:43 pm
#32
What the heck did we get for Kouz since he’s not there?
July 1, 2008 at 4:07 pm
#34@Tom Waits: “The big question would be, is that team strong enough to win if Arizona or LA take a step forward. It doesn’t have much superstar talent.”
That’s kind of what my thinking is… both of those teams are underachieving right now as well if one of them straightens things out the Padres will be left way behind….
July 1, 2008 at 4:21 pm
#28@Schlom: I haven’t read anything as of yet but the guys on 1090 or 1360 were saying this morning that it sounded like Clay Hensley was either on his way or would be here in the next few days.
If they wanted to have 13 pitchers to get them thru the next two games at Coors, I could see them sending down Stansberry and calling Luis Rodriguez back up on Friday, which would give them a few days to decide which pitcher would be heading out.
Of course, this would also leave them with no backup at 2B or SS for two games. They could DFA McAnulty instead, which we have to think is eventually going to happen. He hasn’t gotten a hit in a long while. With the season he’s having, he’ll likely clear waivers and end up in AAA anyways.
The guys on the radio were speculating that a Hensley promotion could lead to something bigger, since KT had recently said they planned on Hensley being a starter once he was promoted.
#35@Loren: If they did trade Kouz, I would hope they could get a major league-ready outfielder or catcher in return. If not, they’re just opening another hole in their everyday lineup.
July 1, 2008 at 4:26 pm
#37@JMAR: They just posted the move on mlb.com. It was Hensley for Stansberry.
July 1, 2008 at 4:34 pm
#38@Schlom: Just as I suspected. Now the questions are, “What pitcher is gone once Luis Rodriguez is called up to be the backup middlle infielder, possibly as soon as tomorrow or Friday?” and “In the meantime, who the heck plays 2B or SS if Khalil or EGON are hurt?”
I’m guessing Scott Hairston can easily play 2B if EGON got hurt and EGON could play SS if Khalil gets hurt. So I just answered my own question. But I wonder what pitcher would be leaving, though. There doesn’t seem to be an obvious answer.
July 1, 2008 at 4:39 pm
#37@JMAR: Well, Hensley could just replace Baek. Someone should.
July 1, 2008 at 4:55 pm
#29@Tom Waits: KG for Ramon Hernandez ? I couldn’t believe this came from you Waits. Are you o.k ?
Heck no ! Hernandez is a cancer in the clubhouse and is basically “done” –a worn out catcher whom the O’s were thinking about outright releasing.
July 1, 2008 at 5:02 pm
#40@Kevin: That’s simple enough, but I really think they’re high on Baek. If anything, I would think they’d move Baek to the bullpen and demote Meredith or maybe Guevara could go to the DL with a phantom injury or something. I don’t think they would risk losing Baek to waivers. He’s still young and has shown glimpses of being a really good pitcher. Maybe he’d do better in short stints out of the bullpen. He struck out the side in his only relief appearance before being moved to the rotation.
July 1, 2008 at 5:09 pm
If we wanted someone like Ramon Hernandez we could probably get him now for next to nothing. Is that the direction this club should go in ?
Saltalamacchia or Max Ramirez from the Rangers has me more and more interested as the days pass.
To project Gerut as 2009’s starting centerfielder is beyond premature. Gerut does offer sound insurance for next year if we are unable to land a younger more prototypical centerfielder or if we are in need of a corner outfielder platoon man.
July 1, 2008 at 5:11 pm
#41@JP: Ramon a cancer? Funny how that label gets whispered after a guy leaves for more money. Or was it because he dared to have surgery to fix a serious physical problem? Ramon might be done, but he also looks like he might be a buy-low candidate. His line-drive rate is up but his BABIP is down. And Greene, unfortunately, is no longer a big chip. I was originally going to posit a trade of Greene for Hernandez and Cabrera, without money coming back, but I don’t see Baltimore being that sick of either of them.
It’s not an ideal trade, and the Padres might be better just letting Greene play out his string. But they didn’t trade him last winter when his value was high. He’s not going to be nearly as valuable this winter. If we were dead-set on getting a catcher who could throw and still offered halfway decent offense for his position, Ramon could be that guy. There are a lot of moves that might make sense with Greene, that’s just one I’d consider.
July 1, 2008 at 5:13 pm
#43@JP: Of course those Ranger prospects are more interesting, but what are we possibly going to give them? Does Kouz get either of them? Does Ramirez come here and get the same blistering reception because he’s not a strong defender?
I don’t think anyone’s penciling Gerut in CF yet. Everybody seems to be talking about him playing there if he earns it the rest of the year.
July 1, 2008 at 5:22 pm
I am with you let Greene play out the string. We certainly don’t need to give up on Greene to get Hernandez. The O’s would gladly give us Hernandez for far less.
I don’t want Hernandez period. It looks and smells like Michael Barrett redux. This team should not be looking to pick up 33 year old has been catchers when it is on pace to lose 99 games and is in rebuilding mode. Getting a young catcher in here next year, such as Ramirez or Salty would be optimum.
Its early to say, but in the very least, I can see a Bard/Hundley platoon for next year. It will be interesting to see how Bard performs over last two months of the season.
July 1, 2008 at 5:27 pm
#46@JP:
Greene going to Baltimore is to balance the money. They’re not going to kick in 5M.
I’m not optimistic that we have anything that could get a Texas catcher.
July 1, 2008 at 5:30 pm
It would be ludicrous for the Pads simply to pencil guys like Gerut or Egon as future stand pat pieces of the puzzle in their drive to contend again. So much will happen in the coming 10 months and the sample sizes are much to small to count in 30+ plus old fringe players now for 2009.
July 1, 2008 at 5:31 pm
#47@Tom Waits: gotcha. I am usually pretty naive when it comes to money matters like this.
July 1, 2008 at 5:37 pm
#29@Tom Waits: I would love for us to have Ramone Hernandez back here!
July 1, 2008 at 5:40 pm
#47@Tom Waits: I can’t help but wonder ….”would Jon Daniels trade with the Padres again” ?
With that said, did the Rangers count on fringe player Ramon Vasquez to have the year he is having for them ? To counter my own strongly worded point–hey, if a fringe player like Egon suddenly starts hitting how can you take him out of the lineup….you don’t simply take him out of the lineup because of his past history rather you look what he is doing NOW and ride the wave !
July 1, 2008 at 5:43 pm
#50@Turbine Dude: Of course that may have been a premature and naive statement on my part since I haven’t followed him since he left here. When he was here, he seemed like a powerhouse batter and a catcher with a great arm.
July 1, 2008 at 6:17 pm
What’s up with OG and the GIDP-itis?
How’s Banks looking?
July 1, 2008 at 6:20 pm
#42@JMAR: I meant only replace him in the rotation.
July 1, 2008 at 6:22 pm
Some good links at FJ blog today …
http://padres.mlblogs.com/arch.....uly_1.html
RHP Jake Peavy is likely to pitch Saturday to get an extra day of rest. … RHP Greg Maddux also might have his starts spaced out a bit more. …
Over at San Diego State University, coach Tony Gwynn is working without a contract
July 1, 2008 at 6:23 pm
After 1st inning …
Pitches-strikes - J Banks 12-8; A Cook 11-7.
Ground balls-fly balls - J Banks 1-1; A Cook 2-0.
Batters faced - J Banks 4; A Cook 3.
July 1, 2008 at 6:25 pm
AZL Padres back to their usual tricks …
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.....p;did=milb
… a 9-2 victory with Decker going 2-for-4 + a walk!
July 1, 2008 at 6:28 pm
#55@LynchMob: The Gwynn thing suprises me. They had a really good team this year. It must just be a lawyer thing in getting the contract done.
July 1, 2008 at 6:29 pm
Blanks with HR #8 …
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.....x_sanaax_1
… San Antonio up 4-2 after 5 with Garrison on the bump
July 1, 2008 at 6:42 pm
#58@Turbine Dude: No doubt, Gwynn has been a disappointment as a college manager on the Hill.
BTW, it always seemed odd that I would see Gwynn doing all this media work and all the while managing a DIV 1 program. It would seem to me that building a winning D1 program would take most of your time and complete focus…just a thought.
July 1, 2008 at 6:52 pm
Curious about the blog’s thoughts on this…
Josh Banks:
Another Justin Germano (gets by on smoke and mirrors but will eventually fail to get anyone out)
or
Another Bob Tewksberry (frustrates hitters for a pretty good MLB career with an assortment of junk)
Granted, the comps aren’t perfect, but you get the idea….
July 1, 2008 at 7:32 pm
#60@JP: JP, I think you misinterpreted my post. Tony shaped a good team. I don’t think he has been a disappointment at SDSU. Just my thoughts.
July 1, 2008 at 7:59 pm
I’m really hoping this means Wolf is on the way out.
July 1, 2008 at 8:07 pm
They are getting more efficient. They lost in less than two hours.
July 1, 2008 at 9:05 pm
79-pitch, complete game shutout. Some much for last night meaning much.
July 1, 2008 at 9:10 pm
#65@Sean Callahan: Mr. Callahan, in response to your comment in the thread about GY’s going back to the office:
” You should graph the Padres’ winning percentage against the number of posts for the IGDs to see what the correlation is. Without Turbine Dude, I’m not sure there would be any discussion some days.”
I’m not sure if I should take that as a compliment or as a fact that sometimes I gab too much. I’m hoping for the former. But, to be included in the tread at all is a compliment. Thank you, sir.
July 1, 2008 at 10:14 pm
#61@Richard D.: Banks is no Germano, he’s put up good K:BB ratios throughout his minor league career. I think he can be an effective back end starter for as long as he maintains his control. Worst case scenario he can become a full knuckleball pitcher and eat innings.
July 1, 2008 at 10:41 pm
#51@JP:
Have you taken even seen E-Gon’s minor league numbers? You act as though he has never been able to hit and I believe his career BA is over .300. Too many times guys come up and don’t perform when they get the chance and it’s such a good story to see E-Gon come up and do basically what he has done his entire professional career, hit.
July 2, 2008 at 1:06 am
From AP: Bud Black said RHP Chris Young (nasal surgery) could start throwing off the mound next week with the hope of getting him back at the end of July.
July 2, 2008 at 1:25 am
#65@Sean Callahan: Definitely a compliment - don’t stop!
Being 3-5 hours behind SD time, I usually lurk while I’m at work (oooh, I made a rhyme) and don’t even have Gameday going. Thus, you’re my play-by-play man and it’s quiet when you’re not around.
Sometimes its even worse - there’s some esoteric argument going on with no discussion about the baseball game currently being played (or said discussion about the game is impossible to find amongst the flame wars).
You could include the score a little more often in your posts, though it’s usually not too hard to figure it out…
July 2, 2008 at 1:27 am
#70@Sean Callahan: Of course it helps if I click on the correct #66@Turbine Dude reply link!
Sigh…