Sat, Jul 26, 2008
by Geoff Young
Padres @ Pirates
4:05 p.m. PT
Channel 4SD, DIRECTV 735
AM 1090, FM 105.7, XM 185
MLB, B-R
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
Filed under In-Game Discussion.
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July 26, 2008 at 12:26 pm
The Pirates are sooo bush league. 18 more years of no playoffs-can MLB just end their misery and move them to AAA? Nice “trade”.
July 26, 2008 at 12:39 pm
The market for Brian Giles could heat up a bit now that Blake and Nady have been moved to teams that weren’t interested in Giles. The U-T raised the interesting possibility of Giles turning his club option next year into a player option because he wants to play for the Padres. If he could do that, that would be pretty cool and make trading him this year pretty much a no brainer. It might actually make him more attractive to other teams who wouldn’t have to worry about his large option or buyout and could collect a draft pick or two when he leaves (he was a type A player after last year).
July 26, 2008 at 12:54 pm
The Indians just acquired Anthony Reyes from the Cardinals for a minor league reliever. Too bad we couldn’t get on that.
July 26, 2008 at 1:19 pm
Evan Scribner has had two lights out appearances with Lake Elsinore since being acquired in the Tony Clark deal.
July 26, 2008 at 1:32 pm
And the guy we got from the Astros seems to be playing well but most scoutings sites think he’s a pitching Paul McAnulty (great in AAA sucks in the majors). Who knows
I like the whole Giles to the Mets trade talks that appear to be going - maybe we can get Martinez from them
July 26, 2008 at 1:56 pm
Speaking of the Pirates. Check out their batting stats on BR. They are 2nd in R/G yet 9th in OPS. As I look at the stats, one # sticks out—309 BB-14th in the NL. Teams with somewhat higher OPS and as many as 80 or 90 more walks score less runs.
July 26, 2008 at 2:25 pm
#6@malcolm: They have a team batting average of 282 with RISP, almost 20 points higher than in other situations and 3rd best overall in baseball. It’s .288 with runners on. That’s fairly fluky and likely to diminish as the season wears on. They also have decent team speed which helps translate those unusually high number of base hits into runs.
You’ve also got to account for park factors. Runs per game depends on the park but isn’t adjusted for it, OPS+ is adjusted. For example, the Braves in a pitcher’s park have an OPS+ of 107 but score fewer runs per game than Arizona, playing in a hitter’s haven with an OPS+ 13 points lower. Still, Pittsburgh is no band box, it’s pitcher-friendly. It looks to me like mostly fluke situational batting average, plus hacktastic guys like Nady having an unusually good BABIP.
July 26, 2008 at 2:52 pm
#6@malcolm: The Twins have a similar dynamic going on this year. Super-great with RISP. On-base and OPS in the middle of the league.
Many say their luck will run out, and they won’t be in contention during the last month. But as with the Diamondbacks last season, strange things happen.
July 26, 2008 at 2:59 pm
Tom, I cant really tell about speed, except that they are tied for last with you know who in SB. As for parks, they are also 2nd in R/G in away games. Hitting with runners on seems valid if not quantifiable; but again we’re reaching to try to justify the value of BB.
July 26, 2008 at 3:07 pm
#2@Ben B.: using that logic I think I could agree with a Giles trade.
#4@JP: I really like that pickup.
#5@Loren: I’ve seen quite a few reports saying they think Reineke has a chance to contribute.
July 26, 2008 at 3:12 pm
#9@malcolm:
They don’t steal bases, but they’re not plodding like the Padres.
One team scoring more runs than expected with lower BB totals does not somehow devalue walks. Last year Pittsburgh was last in the NL in walks and close to the bottom in runs scored.
In most seasons the runs scored for every team will track pretty close to their OPS+, once you account for the park. The Padres have usually looked like an outlier, with a positive OPS+ but low runs per game, but that’s just been the park.
July 26, 2008 at 3:17 pm
#8@Kevin: Yeah, the closer we get to game 162, the less chance there is for those numbers to adjust. But it makes for a good betting opportunity the following year, if people expect them to keep up the clutch work.
#10@Masticore317:
#2@Ben B.:
If Giles gets that player option, though, the Padres are much less likely to sign him and give up the draft pick to the team that loses him.
#10@Masticore317: #5
Agree. I haven’t seen anyone suggest Reineke doesn’t have the arm to be a reliever, whereas McAnulty was often dismissed as a mistake hitter with inadequate bat speed.
July 26, 2008 at 3:21 pm
#12@Tom Waits: Agreed on Reineke - from all accounts it sounds like he may be a very useful bullpen arm. It also sounds like there’s still a possibility of him making it as a starter as well. I’m much higher on him as a reliever - but granted this is just based on what I’ve read.
On another note - any idea what happened to Will Startup? It doesn’t seem like he’s pitched all year. Same goes for Euclides Viloria, the 19 yr old Venezuelan kid who pitched in the AZL last year.
July 26, 2008 at 3:36 pm
#13@Masticore317: Startup went down with the dreaded forearm tightness in the spring and had a setback in May. Wouldn’t be surprising if he needed TJ surgery.
I’m higher on everybody as a reliever, at least in terms of their chances of succeeding. It’s just so much easier.
July 26, 2008 at 3:42 pm
#9@malcolm: It’s not about walks leaders. It’s about on-base percentage leaders. The value of on-base percentage is not disputable.
July 26, 2008 at 3:46 pm
#12@Tom Waits: I’m not sure how it would work, because an acquiring team doesn’t want to turn a team option into a player option, but Giles wouldn’t want to lose that $3 million buyout, and Giles seemingly loses all leverage with the Padres if he’s that dedicated to coming back here. So there are a lot of issues to resolve there. But if those issues are resolved, and Giles does qualify as a type A free agent (last year he was one of the lower ranking A’s), the Padres would only lose a second round pick since their first round one is protected. I don’t think the loss of a second round pick would stop them from re-signing Giles.
July 26, 2008 at 3:49 pm
#14@Tom Waits: That totally sucks - it seemed like Startup had a real chance of making it.
Also, I know what you mean regarding relievers. It sounds like Reineke definitely has a higher upside as a reliever anyway.
July 26, 2008 at 4:07 pm
Nice to see X Nady getting a shot with the biggest team in baseball.
July 26, 2008 at 4:12 pm
#16@Ben B.: You’re right, they’re guaranteed to finish in the protected zone unless 20 other teams come down with org-wide projectile diarrhea lasting two months.
#17@Masticore317: Well, my good buddy Peter Friberg might (might) say that TJ is no big deal. And as far as I can tell Startup hasn’t gone under the knife yet. But guys who get it done are somewhat prone to relapses, have a lessened chance of making it at all, and often have shorter careers.
July 26, 2008 at 4:20 pm
My kind of first inning: 2 strikeouts, 3 walks, a homer. And then Greene goes and ruins the true outcomes with a lousy single.
July 26, 2008 at 4:24 pm
Adrian is good at baseball.
July 26, 2008 at 4:33 pm
Come on Banks. They gave you a four-run lead - there’s no reason to hand it all back.
July 26, 2008 at 4:38 pm
The Padres have 2 run-scoring rallys in 1 inning … when was the last time *that* happened??? I *love* it!
July 26, 2008 at 4:40 pm
OT … Jenga watch …
TEXAS OUTFIELDER MILTON BRADLEY WAS EJECTED BY HOME PLATE UMPIRE JERRY MEALS IN THE TOP OF THE THIRD INNING FOR ARGUING BALLS AND STRIKES.
… I am Jenga fan … just on the watch …
July 26, 2008 at 4:46 pm
Van Benschoten is having a hard time getting people out, and Jody runs into one for him. There’s a run gone.
July 26, 2008 at 4:50 pm
Well, at least we got 3. But 4 woulda been better.
July 26, 2008 at 4:50 pm
Kevin Kouzmanoff.
July 26, 2008 at 4:52 pm
Kouuuuuuz!
After 1.5 times through the order, every hitter except the pitcher has been on base.
July 26, 2008 at 4:53 pm
Kouz has the funkiest swing…. he looks like he’s about to fall down on some follow-thorughs…. but man does he love hitting them to dead center….. that was a bomb.
I suppose Funky Kouz is the ying to Smooth Adrian’s yang.
July 26, 2008 at 4:55 pm
#26@Tom Waits: But you’re right… there’s absolutely no reason for Gerut to try for the extra base there.
July 26, 2008 at 5:54 pm
Wow, the Padres score a few runs and the web site blows a gasket! Hmmm, I’m not sure I like that trade off
Lots of good going on down on the farm also … for the AZL Padres, Jaff Decker with another 1-for-4 (triple) plus a walk ho-hum’er … but I’m thinking the big news here is that John Hudgins pitched … I think this is his first time pitching since an elbow strain in 2006?
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.....k_athrok_1
July 26, 2008 at 5:56 pm
Three out of the first four batters for the Pirates were pinch hit for in the fifth?!? Seems like the Pirates are playing for Sunday, rather than give guys the day off tomorrow…
July 26, 2008 at 5:59 pm
I *love* the 4 HRs today (2 by Adrian, 1 each by KK, and Hundley … but I also like that Chase has 2 walks … it can be done!
July 26, 2008 at 6:00 pm
Kyle Blanks with his 12th HR in support of Will Inman for San Antonio …
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.....x_friaax_1
… San Antonio up 5-1 after 2 …
July 26, 2008 at 6:02 pm
I think we need a better scouting report on LaRoche …
July 26, 2008 at 6:04 pm
At AAA Portland today, Chad Reinke is doing OK …
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.....a_nasaaa_1
… ‘cept for Lance Nix doing his LaRoche impersonation
Note: Tony Gwynn Jr playing for Nashville in this game … last year at this time, he had the weekend off to be at Cooperstown to attend the HoF Induction ceremony!
July 26, 2008 at 6:06 pm
Ft Wayne with 19 hits so far today …
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.....x_ftwafx_1
… up 12-1 thru 7 … yet another nice start by Hefner …
July 26, 2008 at 6:27 pm
It’s not clear to me that 9 runs will be enough today … it wasn’t for the Braves, for example … but Hampson did just get LaRoche out … maybe let Adams finish the game …
July 26, 2008 at 6:28 pm
They are using Adams a lot, aren’t they?
July 26, 2008 at 6:30 pm
Suppose it was lucky that the Pirates took McLouth, Sanchez and Bay out of the game for us or a bad omen?
July 26, 2008 at 6:32 pm
BIG ANNOUNCEMENT at DePo’s blog …
http://itmightbedangerous.blog.....aders.html
Welcome to the new Padres Channel!
July 26, 2008 at 6:33 pm
#40@Sean Callahan: Perhaps they have a poor advance scout
(ie. they don’t know how much the Padre bully has been struggling)
July 26, 2008 at 6:40 pm
#19@Tom Waits: I understand that they can come back strong, but the lost year of development really sucks.
July 26, 2008 at 7:01 pm
Hoffman with the tough save.
July 26, 2008 at 7:08 pm
#44@Kevin: One thing I can promise you is that it was tougher than #17 …
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore?gid=280711125
… I was there … the only guy he had to get out was hitting .133 at the time … yo!
July 26, 2008 at 7:14 pm
#45@LynchMob: This one was one pitch.
July 26, 2008 at 9:15 pm
Chris Young threw a sideline session Saturday and remains on schedule to come off the disabled list and start Tuesday vs. Arizona. … This is Hoffman’s 14th season with at least 20 saves, the most in major league history according to the Elias Sports Bureau. Lee Smith previously was the only other pitcher with at least 20 saves in 13 seasons.