Hairston Never Got the Memo
Mon, Jul 28, 2008
by Geoff Young
I spend the weekend at Comic-Con, and the Padres go out and win three straight games. Are they even allowed to do that?
Scott Hairston hit another home run on Sunday. Dude is batting .364/.417/.909 in July. He also has eight homers this month and 11 RBI. That’s pretty hard to do.
Hairston has some unusual splits in 2008. First off, he’s destroying left-handers: .297/.313/.658, with 10 homers in just 115 plate appearances. Sure, the OBP is low, but why would you ever let a pitch go by when you’re knocking the snot out of the ball like that?
Hairston also is one of the few Padres that does anything when leading off an inning:
Hairston: 104 PA, .333/.385/.740
Rest of team: 872 PA, .209/.266/.324
The other thing I love about Hairston is that apparently he never got the memo about Petco Park. Check out his home/road splits so far in 2008:
Home: .295/.346/.584
Road: .217/.271/.442
Imagine if Hairston had the luxury of playing all his games in that bandbox downtown. If you think his numbers this year are a fluke, here’s his career line at Petco: .301/.349/.593. Granted, 237 plate appearances aren’t a lot, but in Hairston’s case, they represent just under a quarter of his career total.
Speaking of Petco Park, the Pads are back in town Monday to take on Hairston’s former team, the first-place Arizona Diamondbacks. I’ll be out there all three nights. At this point in the season, hanging out at the park and watching games beats the bejeezus out of sitting around thinking about what might have been.
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
July 28, 2008 at 7:35 am
I really think that Hairston is a great fit for this team. He seems to be negatively correlated with the rest of the padres performances. The team’s struggling to get hits, Hairston will pop one over the wall. Struggling to get a clutch hit, never a problem for Hairston. I really think he’s the Anti-Padre. He’s like taking the long on sunscreen when you operate an umbrella factory - he’s a great hedge. Hairston=Hedgeston. Love it.
July 28, 2008 at 7:57 am
This is something I’ve been thinking a lot about recently, but how do we make this team better?
Our OF seems to be set. The Headley/Hairston/Gerut/Giles combination seems to be functioning well and all indicators at this juncture point to us keeping Giles next year. Unless someone offers Gerut stupid money, I can’t imagine not keeping that group together for next year.
Our weakest batting positions at this point are SS and C, two spots that are notoriously hard to fill and are notoriously light-hitting. I don’t think anyone would argue that Khalil and Bard aren’t having atrocious seasons, but are these just bad years or are they indicative of their true talent levels (as opposed to their track records as Pares)? But really, outside of these two positions, how do we upgrade the team?
Which brings us to pitching. I really, truly, honestly believe that our bullpen in particular and our pitching staff in general has killed this season for us. I firmly beleive that if our pitching staff were performing more like last year’s iteration that we’d be right in the thick of things.
It’s just interesting how little attention our pitching seems to get from “the experts.” Everyone points to Khalil and our catchers as our problems, but in reality, our pitching has killed us more than anything else.
What do you guys think? How do we fix this team?
July 28, 2008 at 8:51 am
Phantom…a buck says Kouz gets traded this off-season, Headley to 3b and we have a new LF or CF for next season.
I also can’t see KG here past this year. No, I don’t know where they will find the replacement, but for some reason my gut says he is gone.
2b is also a question for 2009, especially given Antonelli’s regression…can Edgar really be counted on everyday? My guess is no, but he might be a decent back-up.
You are right that the pitching needs to be tweaked. Would Cla get traded this week? Do any of us expect Maddux to end up gone before Thursday? Anyone else?
Finally, do the Pads try to resign Prior? A gamble and a dream?
July 28, 2008 at 8:53 am
#2@Phantom: Absolutely agree on the pitching. Our rotation for ‘09 only has Peavy and Young as of this moment, and no matter how many Banks, Baeks, Reinekes, Geers, and Germanos we have lying around, we still have three spots to fill and that’s a tall order for a team that has continued to run out the above mentioned flim-flam and then argued that our pitching is a strength. It’s imperative that we upgrade the pitching staff. Petco only masks so many issues.
July 28, 2008 at 8:56 am
#3@Coronado Mike: If he will sign for 1 year and $1 Mil again then I’m thinking he will be a padre in 09.
July 28, 2008 at 8:59 am
In response to GY’s new content, Hairston’s looking like a possibly terrific part-time player. I’d expect the power to come down which in turn makes his OBP more of an issue, but there’s an argument to be made for giving him 300 straight at-bats to start 2009. If they’re looking to compete you’d probably want a platoon partner (Gerut).
Agree with Phantom and Bruce on the need to address the pitching for 2009. The offense was simply atrocious at times this year, but that looks more like a lot of concentrated bad luck than LOFT. Just because the 5th starter candidates mentioned by Bruce can survive in Petco is no reason to settle for them. The front office needs to be realistic about our pitching; even Maddux was average at best last year and is well-below that this year. They should consider getting at least one more bullpen arm with a major league track record; this year’s over-reliance on waiver claims and Rule 5 picks blew up.
July 28, 2008 at 9:03 am
Jim Callis at BA thinks that Dykstra may be the only first rounder who does not sign…
http://www.baseballamerica.com.....66582.html
And the Padres draft debacles continue…that makes 4 out of the last 5 first round draft choices burn out due to injury…although Bush was not damaged goods (physically at least) when they signed him.
July 28, 2008 at 9:04 am
Jim Callis of Baseball America thinks the only first-round pick who might not sign will be San Diego’s Allan Dykstra.
http://www.baseballamerica.com.....66582.html
July 28, 2008 at 9:04 am
Jim Callis of BA thinks that Dykstra may be the only first-round pick who doesn’t sign. I don’t want to get disappointed ahead of time, but…..hasn’t the front office claimed to have learned the Matt Bush lesson about a hundred times? If the injury surprised them, it’s an absolute failure of due diligence.
Maybe they’ll give his bonus to Mooneyham, but if they don’t sign Dykstra it’s another black eye in a season full of them.
July 28, 2008 at 9:05 am
#7@Steve C:
#8@olovru:
#9@Tom Waits:
Heh. Jinx. Who owes who a Coke?
July 28, 2008 at 9:07 am
Check out what the Portland Beavers did last night … they won 10-1 … in 11 innings … think about that!
http://www.minorleaguebaseball.....a_nasaaa_1
… note: a 2-hit game for Antonelli … hoping …
re: Hairston … if both he and Edgar can be “super subs”, then the Padres have a team that can both get to and win in the playoffs. I think they are both good enough to be starters … perhaps even starters on a winning team … it’s just that the rest of the team needs to be a lot better …
July 28, 2008 at 9:10 am
#9@Tom Waits: It’s my understanding, I think from things I’ve read at MadFriars, that Moneyham is absolutely not an option to sign … he’s uber-committed to going to Stanford.
The Dykstra situation is odd … very odd … it makes it hard to be a Padre fan … of course I am, and always will be … just sayin’ …
July 28, 2008 at 9:20 am
#11@LynchMob: Agree on EGon. So far he’s hitting is in line with his minor league numbers, and his 285 EQA is in the upper third of all major league 2b. Combine that with a happy Agon and I have no problem giving him the keys to the position for next year.
Hairston….they might be best served by giving him every start from now until the end of the year, just so they get more data.
July 28, 2008 at 9:24 am
#12@LynchMob: Mooneyham was considered almost unsignable, but if they budgeted 1 million for him and now have another 1.4 to spend…..that’s a lot of incentive.
The absolute most disturbing thing about Dykstra is that it suggests a flawed process, which is what the Padres have supposedly been concentrating on. It’s not a player who gets a big bonus and doesn’t work out for reasons that would have been very hard to predict; that happens to everybody no matter what they do beforehand.
July 28, 2008 at 9:36 am
Former Padre Adam Eaton has been optioned to the minor leagues.
July 28, 2008 at 9:56 am
#9@Tom Waits: In one interview, Fuson said that they pre draft medical report gave Dykstra a clean bill of health, but his physical showed otherwise. If that is the case, I am not sure what else they could of done. Other than stay away because of the surgery.
July 28, 2008 at 10:05 am
#16@Field39: But now Yocum has cleared him … so that’s why it still seems odd to me …
July 28, 2008 at 10:13 am
So do we not think Hensley will be a viable starting option next year? Will LeBlanc be ready?
Will there be any decent FA starters available this off-season? I know Sabathia would be, but we can pretty much forget him.
MLBTR has the following list as available:
Tony Armas Jr. (31)
Kris Benson (33)
A.J. Burnett (32) - can opt out after ‘08 season
Paul Byrd (38)
Roger Clemens (46)
Matt Clement (33) - $8.75MM club option for ‘09 with a $0.25MM buyout
Ryan Dempster (32)
Josh Fogg (32)
Jon Garland (29)
Tom Glavine (43)
Mike Hampton (36)
Mark Hendrickson (35)
Livan Hernandez (34)
Orlando Hernandez (43)
Jason Jennings (30)
Randy Johnson (45)
John Lackey (30) - $9MM club option for ‘09 with a $0.5MM buyout
Jon Lieber (39)
Esteban Loaiza (37) - $7.5MM club option for ‘09 with a $0.375MM buyout
Braden Looper (34)
Derek Lowe (36)
Greg Maddux (43)
Pedro Martinez (37)
Jamie Moyer (46)
Mark Mulder (31) - $11MM club option for ‘09 with a $1.5MM buyout
Mike Mussina (40)
Carl Pavano (33) - $13MM club option for ‘09 with a $1.95MM buyout
Brad Penny (31) - $8.75MM club option for ‘09 with a $2MM buyout
Odalis Perez (32)
Oliver Perez (27)
Andy Pettitte (37)
Mark Prior (27)
Kenny Rogers (44)
C.C. Sabathia (28)
Curt Schilling (42)
Ben Sheets (30)
John Smoltz (42) - $12MM club option for ‘09
Brett Tomko (36)
Tim Wakefield (42) - perpetual $4MM club option
Kip Wells (32)
Randy Wolf (32)
There are a couple interesting names on the list, like Penny and Lowe, but I would be surprised if both make it to FA. Would we be better off trying to get a Dave Bush from the Brewers by throwing Kouz there way? Would we want more than just Bush in return for Kouz?
July 28, 2008 at 10:14 am
#18@Phantom: Ollie Perez would also be an interesting option.
July 28, 2008 at 10:16 am
#16@Field39: He got the second opinion they requested from an eminent doctor, and they’re still not convinced. They knew the condition is often degenerative before the draft, which is what they claim is causing them heartburn now. That’s a lack of diligence. I’d also say that maybe we ought not to put complete stock in what any member of the front office tells us; they have no incentive to reveal any flaws in their pre-draft throught process.
At some point the scale tips. A 30% chance (just a guess) of the hip being worse than they thought leading to a 90% chance of not signing him sure seems to be past that point.
July 28, 2008 at 10:17 am
#6@Tom Waits: Isn’t Maddux essentially having the same year statistically as last year ? I can’t see where he is “well below” last years pace. His WHIP and ERA are virtually the same.
Watched San Antonio play Frisco on TV last night. The Frisco announcers mentioned several times how much of a pitchers park San Antonio’s home field is. In fact, they even pointed out how much of a pitcher’s league the whole Texas League is. Does this not explain why Kyle Blanks and Chad Huffman’s power numbers are a bit low ? BTW, I really like how Blanks swings the bat. Huffman I am not so sure of. I am going to Dr. Pepper ballpark in Frisco tonight to see San Antonio play tonight. I hope to have some video.
July 28, 2008 at 10:19 am
#17@LynchMob: What we do not know is:
Has Yocum cleared him to play?
or
Has Yocum cleared him of having a degenerative condition?
Two very different things.
July 28, 2008 at 10:23 am
#18@Phantom:
I’m very skeptical of Hensley as a starter, even as a pitcher in general after his shoulder surgery. As a starter he never had the K numbers you’d look for.
LeBlanc (and Geer) may be ready, but our most pressing need is for guys at the front of the rotation. Those two could also easily be Mike Bynum and Justin Germano, which isn’t cynicism, just realism.
Other than Oliver Perez, I don’t see us signing anybody who is known to be good. Ollie may be a special case and I’d love to have him back.
Lohse sure would have helped this year. He’s in line for a rather substantial raise.
July 28, 2008 at 10:28 am
#21@JP: Last year Maddux ended with a 98 ERA+. This year he’s at 94 and has been falling recently. That’s about a 5% drop in performance. Offense in general is down this year, so the same WHIP and ERA would mean lessened performance.
#22@Field39: That’s a huge risk to take just to get the opportunity to do your own exam of a condition that is known to be frequently degenerative.
July 28, 2008 at 10:31 am
#24@Tom Waits: Under the current rules, not that big a risk. If they do not sign him, they get a do over.
July 28, 2008 at 10:40 am
25: I agree that the pick for not signing Dykstra does mitigate the risk to some extent.
23: Getting Oliver Perez back for next year would be a positive move for the Pads. Peavy, Young, Perez, Banks and one of Hensley, Wolf, LeBlanc, etc looks like a pretty solid starting 5.
July 28, 2008 at 10:46 am
#19@Phantom: With the savings from not re-signing Maddux and Wolf, and the thinking that at least one of the young starters will be ready to step in, I think they could definitely make a run at Perez. Unfortunately, someone like Chicago or New York or LA would just pay him a little bit more than the Padres will offer. The best chance we have is to overpay him or maybe he just really liked it here in SD and accepts a lesser deal to pitch in a pitcher’s park. It’s happened before.
Let’s just say that happens, this is what our rotation would look like:
1. Peavy
2. Young
3. Perez
4/5. Two of Hensley, Banks, Baek, LeBlanc, Garrison, Inman, Ramos, Geer
Not bad at all, especially with three starters who all have the ability to dominate. My main concern is still rebuilding the bullpen, though.
July 28, 2008 at 10:47 am
This may be a bit too conspiracy theory like but is there any chance that the Pads just did not like any of the players that were available when they picked and they just picked Dykstra because they knew of his past injury problems and his agent knowing that they could either low ball him or get another pick next year?
July 28, 2008 at 10:50 am
#27@JMAR: I would be very happy with that rotation but I still don’t think it will be enough to put them back on track unless they find some more offence…
July 28, 2008 at 11:01 am
#25@Field39: It mitigates the risk a bit, but with the comp pick they’re about 99.9% sure of taking somebody who will sign for slot or less, because there’s no comp for the comp. The rule was put in place to give teams leverage to sign players, not as a safeguard for poor decisions. Doesn’t mean we can’t use it that way, but they had X dollars for the 2008 draft and several hundred players to choose from, including some with better tools than Dykstra and no physical issues. What if next year’s class stinks? There’s no way any team should take that kind of chance with a 1st rounder just because they get another one the next year.
#26@Paul R: It mitigates it slightly, but not enough to explain why they’d take the chance of picking Dykstra, a bat-only player at an organizational position of depth, just so they could have their own docs look at him.
#27@JMAR: Those last few candidates, including Banks, all look like 5th starters to me. You’d still like to see somebody better behind Perez. Anthony Reyes would have been nice. That’s 40% of the starts, plus Young is no innings eater. Pretty big load on the pen.
#28@Steve C: They liked a lot of players after that; I don’t see why they’d take the chance that someone else might pick them. Just bump everybody up a notch. Heck, take Mooneyham. It seems more likely that they underestimated the chances of his hip failing a physical or that they simply didn’t know about it.
July 28, 2008 at 11:03 am
#28@Steve C: I think that might well be the case. It’s fairly well known that A) the Padres wanted Reese Havens, who the Mets popped at 22 and B) The D’Backs wanted Dykstra.
It could very well be that once Havens was off the board, the Padres dediced to stick it to AZ instead, perhaps punting in the hopes that next year’s draft class will be stronger.
And that, it would appear, is the rub. I’ve heard that next year’s draft class looks pretty weak outside of Strassburg. If they were really trying some convoluted strategy to get two picks next year, why would you want them in such a weak class?
And I disagree about our offense. Look at the Pirates. One of the best damn offenses in the league, and their record is atrocious since they have no pitching. Pitching was our bugaboo this year, not the offense.
July 28, 2008 at 11:05 am
#2@Phantom: The team has a 96 OPS+ and an 89 ERA+, so you’re definitely right.
#23@Tom Waits: I don’t think we need guys at the front of the rotation. We already have Peavy and Young there. I think our need is for a reliable known decent starter or two - guys that will probably throw 200 innings with a 105 ERA+. Unfortunately, that’s the guy the free agent market seems to really overvalue, so it’s unlikely we’ll acquire anyone like that. My guess for starter signings: Wolf and Pedro Martinez.
On Dykstra, I agree that apparently not doing due diligence on Dykstra’s injuries is a black mark against the front office, but in deciding whether or not to sign him they really need to disregard that completely. Yeah, it sucks and looks bad if they don’t sign him, but if they decide that his hip is too much of a risk that’s probably the best decision at this point in the game. They’ll get that pick back next year, and signing two first rounders shouldn’t be too much of a problem because they won’t have supplemental picks.
July 28, 2008 at 11:06 am
#2@Phantom: How to fix this team? It’s hard to figure out where they’d be able to upgrade offensively with a lack of financial resources and a lack of trade bait.
Nobody is really sucking right now and although Khalil has underachieved big-time this season, there isn’t much available that would be an upgrade over him. Even in his worst season, he’s still probably going to hit 15 HR’s and play great defense.
And I believe Bard was hurt early in the season, which led to his dismal numbers. He’s a proven big-league hitter with a high OBP and a great average with RISP. There’s probably a few teams out there that would love to have him right now if they felt that he was in good health. I don’t know if there’s an upgrade over Bard next season. Having Hundley splitting time with him is a perfect balance because Bard is more of a contact hitter who calls a good game and Hundley has more power and a great arm.
I really think they’ll have to focus on improving the pitching staff this offseason. I’d love for them to bring some more speed and more power on offense but it really won’t make that much of a difference if the bullpen sucks again.
July 28, 2008 at 11:06 am
re 27: BLAH!!!!
We can’t continue to count on Petco making our rotation look better then it actually is-plus, the bullpen couldn’t handle the workload that rotation would generate.
They should be going into the off season thinking that they only have 2 starting pitchers on the roster: Peavy and Young.
Sign Perez-Great-but you had better find at least 1 other guy who is league average-otherwise we get another 100 IP from Baek when some combo of CY/Peavy are hurt once again.
July 28, 2008 at 11:20 am
#32@Ben B.: I’m not as sanguine about Young. He hasn’t thrown 180 innings yet, he wasn’t pitching well before being Pujolsed this year, and despite his 2006 splits he seems like a guy who benefits greatly from Petco (as he did in 2007). To me, there’s a good chance he’s a 105 ERA+ guy going forward, but without the innings. Two guys with 105+ ERA and 200 innings would be a good start, but I’d still want a more traditional stopper / ace than Young.
It’s a good point on Dykstra. Not doing an adequate risk analysis is a failure; not signing him after discovering that you didn’t do an adequate risk analysis is probably a success, even if of the Pyhrric variety.
#34@Mark Ase: Totally agree.
July 28, 2008 at 11:23 am
#34@Mark Ase: Obviously, that back of the rotation has too many question marks but when have they not had question marks in the 4 and 5 spots?
What they need is for one of those young guys to step up and fill those spots so they can afford an Oliver Perez, which is a long shot anyways. He will not come cheap. I’m guessing that would be eat up most of their offseason budget.
And if they don’t sign him, you know what they’ll do? They’ll sign Randy Wolf and another guy coming off of an injury that was good a few years back to be the 3 and 4 starters. I’d rather have Peavy-Young-Perez and then let the young guys battle it out for the last two spots rather than the alternative.
July 28, 2008 at 11:27 am
#36@JMAR: I’d rather have Peavy-Young-Perez, too. But I think what Mark is saying is that even if you get Perez, you need more stability at the back end, not the recent method of using anyone with a pulse because Petco hides their inadequacies.
July 28, 2008 at 11:29 am
Anyone like my idea of a Kouz for Dave Bush swap? Do we need to get something else out of that deal?
July 28, 2008 at 11:32 am
#38@Phantom: I liked that idea last winter, too. I don’t think we’d get anything else out of it, and I expect it would wait until the winter.
July 28, 2008 at 11:34 am
#35@Tom Waits: Chris Young has 600+ career major league innings, and over those he’s got a 113 ERA+. Even in Texas he was at 108 (and that was with a normal-ish .290 BABIP and a lower strikeout rate). Agree he can’t be counted on for more than 180 innings. Also, turns out the 200 innings, 105 ERA+ guys don’t exist on the free agent market next year (except for maybe Derek Lowe, whose unearned runs make him a 105 RA+ type guy, but he’s going to get paid like a 120 ERA+ guy). You either pay for the premium pitchers or settle for gambles.
July 28, 2008 at 11:34 am
#37@Tom Waits: Totally agree with both of you on that but when considering the financial limitations of this ballclub, it makes it much harder to bring in veterans for the back of the rotation if you’re spending at least $12 million/yr on Perez.
Take a look at the FA list that Phantom posted earlier. Which guys could you sign cheaply that would be better options than Hensley or one of the younger guys? I don’t see them spending more than $5 million again for a #4 starter.
July 28, 2008 at 11:37 am
Nobody look now, but Kouz is back up to the 109 OPS+ he had last year. He’s hitting righties a bit better this year too.
July 28, 2008 at 11:39 am
I think we’re all on the wrong track here - adding another starter isn’t going to cure the Padres’ ailments. they need to clean house - if Iguchi, Maddux, Gerut, Giles, Bard, Kouzmanoff, Greene and Hoffman are still Padres on Friday then Towers has failed and should be replaced as GM immediately. Getting something of value for the worthless Randy Wolf is a start - I just want to see more.
If you think I’m being harsh ask yourself this question: which of the above listed players will be around when the Padres are ready to contend in 2010?
July 28, 2008 at 11:39 am
#38@Phantom: I wouldn’t mind trading Kouz for a pitcher in the offseason. If he can stay hot and boost his average up into the .290’s with 24 HR’s and 85 RBI’s, I think they could do much better than a 28 year-old with a 5-8 record and 4.51 ERA.
July 28, 2008 at 11:47 am
#43@David Coonce:
Iguchi - is on the DL and caint be traded (he may be moved via waivers in Aug though)
Maddux - has a full no trade and has said he will pretty much only accept a trade to a west coast team ie meaning the dodgers…
Hoffman - Will retire as a Padre there is no way he will get traded.
Greene - you better get an every day SS in return because there is no one in the Pad org who is ready to fill that spot.
Giles - Has a cheap option for next year but I would not mind at all if the Pads moved him.
Bard and Kouz - will prob be moved in the off season
July 28, 2008 at 11:54 am
Anyone see this http://www.baseballamerica.com.....66553.html ?
Newest Dirk Hayhurst rant and it’s freaking hilarious! Reminds me of just about every long distance snowboarding trip or Las Vegas trip or who am I kidding even the 10 minute ride to the movies with my friends.
July 28, 2008 at 12:09 pm
#45:
Players on the DL can be traded - MLB changed the rules several years ago.
Dealing Maddux to the dodgers is fine with me. They have plenty of c-level prospects I’d be fine with. Otherwise he retires or signs with another team this offseason - may as well get some value now.
Hoffman may well retire as a Padre - I’d prefer it, but I can’t let sentimentality get in the way of obtaining a prospect or two. Let him pitch two months for the Cubs, then re-sign in the spring and retire as a Padre. Especially if it nets the Pads Ronny Cedeno.
Greene has been dreadful this season and his OBP - and pitch recognition - has gone south since his rookie season. I love his defense and really have been a defender of him for years, but it’s time to accept that he’s just a hacker. To argue against trading him by saying “there’s nobody to replace him” conveniently ignores that Greene’s numbers are 215/259/336. Certainly Luis Gonzalez or Ronny Cedeno can match those, with just a slight trade-off on defense. And frankly, even if the Padres played, say, Chase Headley at short for the rest of the year, would it matter? They’re going to finish in last place regardless, and is it really that important to avoid 100 losses or whatever? Hell, put Hoffman out there; he was a shortstop in the minors. The difference between coming in last by 10 games and 30 is pretty insignificant, especially if, in the long run, it allows you to pick up a prospect or two. We know what Greene can do, and it’s not good. Let’s try something else; it’s the fear of the 100-loss season that has kept guys like Greene and Gerut and E Gonzalez on the roster.
Giles has more value to other teams than he does the Padres; ditto Kouzmanoff and Bard. While I hate to think about the dreadful results that would occur if SD moved all these players, how much worse could it be than the current record?
July 28, 2008 at 12:10 pm
#40@Ben B.: That’s true, but he also benefited from changing leagues. In 200 Texas innings he was 108. He had his two best years right when he should have. It would not surprise me at all if we’ve already seen his peak. I hope that’s not true, but it’s not all that unlikely.
#41@JMAR: They may not be willing to pay what it takes to sign a better 4th starter, but they could trade for one. There’s nobody in our current list of candidates who really has the minor league (or major league) numbers you’d want.
#45@Steve C: We don’t need a SS back for Greene. We just need to get a SS in the offseason. It’s far too limiting to require a SS back, unless it happens to be a SS you wanted anyway.
July 28, 2008 at 12:16 pm
#47@David Coonce: “We know what Greene can do, and it’s not good.”
I feel this is a bit of selective memory here. Look, the guy is having an awful season. But do we completely ignore what he’s done over his career?
How many career-average 100 OPS+ SS that are above average defensively exist? Yeah, it’s hard to swallow his performance this year. But do we assume that this is his true talent level and that everything to this point has been an abberation?
#44@JMAR: My thinking is that we might be able to rake the Brewers over the coals for Kouz since they’re in the midst of a playoff hunt. And Dave Bush has typically had some damn good peripherals. It’s not like teams are going to give you an elite pitching propsect for a slightly above-average 3B who has some defensive limitations.
July 28, 2008 at 12:20 pm
How about moving Hairston down in the line-up… for all the power (17 HR, .518 SLG) he’s only got 31 RBI.
Edgar
Giles
Hairston
A-Gone
Kouz
Headley
Maybe?
July 28, 2008 at 12:20 pm
#47@David Coonce:
Maddux: If you could be sure he’d sign with another team, then you keep him and offer arbitration so you get draft picks instead of a C prospect. The last time that happened to Mad Dog, though, he accepted arbitration and the Braves got stuck paying him. But I’d probably trade him.
Hoffman: Going nowhere and the demand wouldn’t be great, anyway.
Greene: What’s the point in trading him when his value is at an all-time low? Much better to see if he gets hot the next two months and improves his numbers. If someone was willing to trade for him based on his past and not low-ball us because of his struggles this year, sure, make the deal. Greene’s been a very valuable player 4 out of 5 years, with league-average offense and good defense at a key defensive position. Struggling for 4 months doesn’t outweigh 4 years.
“it’s the fear of the 100-loss season that has kept guys like Greene and Gerut and E Gonzalez on the roster”: I don’t understand this. Greene’s not holding anyone back and his trade value is down, which means its a bad time to sell. Who is Gerut holding back? Venable, maybe, but there’s an argument for letting him succeed more in AAA after a mediocre AA campaign last season. And Egon has not only played well, he’s blocking nobody.
Giles is more complicated because of his bonus / option. Trading him makes sense if the Padres think, like you, they can’t compete next year. Look at the NL West. The Padres of 2007, which are very similar to this year’s model, would have run away with the 2008 race. I can understand why the Padres might punt 2009, and it might even be the right move strategically, but I can also see lots of reasons they think they could be right back in the thick of things.
July 28, 2008 at 12:25 pm
#32@Ben B.: Pedro Martinez is *done* … no way he should be on anybody’s list of guesses for FA signings for 2009 …
#33@JMAR: Bard wasn’t hurt at the start of the season … he just played *way* too much … ie. without any off days, he wore down quickly … the theory of having Barrett to get significant playing time is what did not manifest …
re: front end of the rotation … at this point, clearly Jake is a #1 … but I think what TW is suggesting is that Padres would be well served if they did not consider CY to be the #2 … ie. if he’s the #3 or #4, then that means the Padres have a good, solid, deep rotation … which, given the state of their offense, seems like part of the best path to a successful 2009 (with the other significant part being to improve the bully, which appears to be obvious to everyone) …
July 28, 2008 at 12:38 pm
#52@LynchMob: Yes. I’m not saying CY is valueless; even at a 105 ERA+, he’s a valuable player on a good contract. But his health and other issues (flyball tendencies, inability to go deep into games, heavy fly ball rate) works against him being someone to count on behind Peavy.
July 28, 2008 at 12:41 pm
OT … remembering back to many of our pre-draft discussions … by far the most intriging guy was Anthony Hewitt … here’s an update from KG @ BP …
Anthony Hewitt, 3B, Rookie-level GCL Phillies
Hewitt’s entry into the game was well-publicized; he was the best athlete in this year’s draft, a player that some scouts scored as a perfect 80 on raw power, speed, and arm. The only problem was that nobody really thought he was a very good baseball player yet. Nevertheless, the Phillies love athletes, so they took him with their first-round selection, and so far he’s exceeded expectations. After a two-hit game on Friday, Hewett went 4-for-7 with two doubles and his first professional home run in a Saturday doubleheader, raising his debut-season averages to .333/.385/.583. He also drew his first walk of the year (it took him ten games) and made a couple of errorless starts at third base, a ‘read and react’ position that might work better for him than those requiring game instincts.
July 28, 2008 at 12:45 pm
In response to the constant refrain of “if the Padres trade KG, they need to get a SS back” I offer this suggestion (analysis by KG @ BP) …
Brandon Wood, SS, Triple-A Salt Lake (Angels)
A lot of people have given up on Brandon Wood, because in 97 big league at-bats he’s hit a miserable .134/.160/.216, and his propensity to strike out in the minors has become disturbing. Many in the scouting community, however, have not given up on him, and with the trade deadline approaching, some teams see Wood as a the perfect “change of scenery” candidate, despite the Angels being historically conservative when it comes to trading prospects. To his credit, Wood is doing his best to help himself back in the Pacific Coast League, going 7-for-12 with two home runs over the weekend, and 16-for-36 with seven home runs in his last ten games (.288/.355/.573 on the season). Scouts are taking note, and teams are placing him high on their want list when it comes to talks with the Angels.
… he may turn out to be KG-lite (with poorer defense) … so it’s just an idea …
July 28, 2008 at 12:48 pm
The first team that BP’s “playoff odds report” declares “out of it” is …
http://www.baseballprospectus......red/?p=964
… as Kevin has tried to tell us many times this season: “The Nats were the first team to hit the Alighieri Number in the 2008 season.”
July 28, 2008 at 12:51 pm
#24@Tom Waits:OPS+ and ERA+ take into account some interesting elements in ballpark and run support.
Hairston is a dead pull power hitter, could it not be argued that being the type of hitter Hairston is, Petco is actually a good hitting park for Hairy ? How does OPS+ account for this dynamic as far as individual analysis on performance ?
Also, with the lack of offensive support Maddux has had this year, is it fair to say that therefore, Maddux had a significantly better year last year. I haven’t looked at ERA+ much.
How should ERA+ be used ? What are its downfalls/holes ?
July 28, 2008 at 12:55 pm
#54@LynchMob:
Rub it in dude!
#55@LynchMob:
I’ve thought he should have been a target for a long time. I don’t know who the Angels would want on our roster though. Kouz might be a player to talk about with them but they have no use for most of our chips.
July 28, 2008 at 1:06 pm
If we are so worried about the #3 spot in our rotation then why don’t we go trade for someone like Bronson Arroyo and throw a bunch of our pitchers in AAA at the Reds? Go find some workhorse for the #3 spot for a year or two, at a decent price, and wait another year or so for Inman and company to move up.
Re #55;
The Angels just DO NOT trade their prospects for some reason, they are completely unwilling. And frankly Wood is more of a 3B and very Khalil like - so what’s the point? I’d sooner get Aybar because at least he has a different less frustrating skill set.
July 28, 2008 at 1:06 pm
BP takes a look at the weekend trades …
http://www.baseballprospectus......red/?p=963
… and again *rips* the Dogs for their lack of understanding that performance is more important than experience … always love a good Dog rip’in’
July 28, 2008 at 1:07 pm
#57@JP: I think GY linked to a story earlier this season that showed Petco is actually tougher on right-handed hitters. With Shrek I think it’s probably a lot of raw power and some small-sample size. He’d still hit better in any other park, but his jaw-dropping thump makes him less susceptible to Petco.
I don’t know what Maddux’s offensive support has to do with it. Maddux’s K rate is very slightly down, his walks are way up (for him), he’s being touched for a few more XBH. League-wide offense is down, so a slight decline in his production from last year means he’s pitching more than slightly worse. Doesn’t mean he can’t rebound over the next two months and be about average, like he was last year, but as of now he’s definitely down from 2007.
July 28, 2008 at 1:08 pm
#59@Loren: Arroyo’s a good idea.
July 28, 2008 at 1:14 pm
#62: Ramos and Geer for Arroyo
July 28, 2008 at 1:21 pm
#61@Tom Waits:
The thing I think plays into Hairston’s power at home that you may or may not be able to account for statistically is the way Hairston hits the ball. He is a dead pull hitter but the ball off his bat is a low flying line drive ball. Thus staying out of the Petco dead air marine layer. His homers never seem to get more than 30 feet off the ground and seem to not really be effected by Petco.
This of course is strictly my observation only but you can see polar opposites like Giles, Greene, Gonzalez and past hitters like Nevin and Klesko etc. All those guys get their shots up in the air and subsequently a lot die in the amarine layer. I belive I have said it before but I think Hairston’s swing and extreme righ handed pull power really play to Petco perfectly. The one thing that worries me about Scott is that sooner or later you would think that pitchers will catch up and never leave anything out there for him to pull and then he turns into KG. I wonder with his month of July if Hairston turns into a deadline or possibly an off season trade target.
July 28, 2008 at 1:27 pm
55: Heath Bell would likely be of interest to any of the contending teams. The Angels might do Wood for Bell. I’m not advocating that deal, just noting that the Padres could probably get Wood if they really liked him. I agree that he seems like a KG without excellent defense type…
I’m not sure that Kouzmanoff has more value to other teams than to the Padres. As was noted earlier, he’s back to a 109 OPS+ and is still getting hotter. I know that the terrible April just kills the team, but since May 1, Kouz is hitting .290/337/494. That makes him the 4th best offensive 3B in the NL over that time period, without adjusting for park factors. If the Padres aren’t blown away by an offer for Kouzmanoff (and Dave Bush doesn’t blow me away), I don’t see a reason to trade a productive offensive player who is still cheap for a couple more years. He’s also a right-handed bat which is sorely needed with the influx of lefty bats that Padres will get over the next couple years.
July 28, 2008 at 1:40 pm
#64@KRS1: That’s certainly possible, but his line drive rate isn’t all that high. In fact it’s lower than OG’s. Still, he might be a guy who WHEN he hits a line drive, it tends to keep going.
July 28, 2008 at 2:06 pm
PHILADELPHIA — Already bumped from the Philadelphia Phillies’ starting rotation, Adam Eaton now is off the roster.
The struggling right-hander agreed to go to the minors Monday, a day after he pitched poorly in relief. A decision on where to send Eaton has not been made.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....id=3508294
July 28, 2008 at 2:08 pm
Forgot who I am agreeing with, but I certainly think that Hairston’s lower OBP and higher SLG are not a good fit for the leadoff spot. Giles would be the best leadoff guy on the team.
July 28, 2008 at 2:15 pm
#64@KRS1: Here’s a web site with some data you can explore to see if your observation holds up …
http://www.hittrackeronline.co.....ype=hitter
… only 1 HR right of “LF” (105 degrees to 135 degrees) confirms he is indeed a “dead pull hitter” … his elevation angle average is 34 degrees … don’t know how that compares …
His last 3 HRs, I will point out, are tag’d as “lucky” = A home run that would not have cleared the fence if it has been struck on a 70-degree, calm day … ymmv.
July 28, 2008 at 3:06 pm
#61@Tom Waits: I did notice his (Maddux) walks were up. XBH ? Que es esto ?
“Offense in general is down this year, so the same WHIP and ERA would mean lessened performance” It is this statement which initially confused me re: ERA+ It’s ‘league wide” !! Of course, not Padre specific. Thanks.
July 28, 2008 at 3:06 pm
#68@Kevin: I would normally agree but the guy is apparently very comfortable in that spot. Check out his numbers out of the leadoff spot this season:
.323 BA, .364 OBP, .715 SLG, 12 HR, 19 RBI’s, 9 doubles, 3 triples
He’s stolen just one base but that’s likely because his hits are usually for extra bases. He nearly beats out every groundball he hits so I know he has enough speed.
With those numbers, I don’t see how you can take him out of the leadoff spot until he proves otherwise. Same case for Alfonso Soriano and Hanley Ramirez. They appear to be natural middle-of-the-order hitters but for some reason, they do better as leadoff hitters.
#69@LynchMob: The HR against Cincy just went out but I thought yesterday’s HR was far from being lucky. I knew it was out as soon as it left his bat.