Comments on: Hairston Never Got the Memo

By: Tom Waits

Tom Waits — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 18:13:49 +0000

#104@David Coonce: Sometimes a guy can hit in the minors but not the majors. Usually it’s a lack of patience on the part of the big-league club, combined with the player not having enough upside to make the team more forgiving.

The chances of an older player turning into a star are very small, but the chances of them being valuable is less small. And Egon, to his credit, came out hot. We’re not carrying him for any reason other than his 113 OPS+. That plays. So does Gerut’s 114.

McAnulty, Ambres, and Huber haven’t had enough major-league at-bats to say they can’t hit in the majors, but only Huber has enough upside, because of his power, to really be that concerned with.

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By: David Coonce

David Coonce — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 17:36:57 +0000

#103@Tom Waits:
Hitting in the minor leagues without getting a chjance to play sounds exactly like McAnulty, Huber and Ambres. We’ll see. I hope I’m wrong about him Gonzalez.

As far as drafts go, the Padres avoidance of high-upside guys has driven me crazy for a long time. The Dominican signings this year were huge though, and restored some faith for me in the front office - a front office this talented can’t be clueless with regard to young talent, can it? The only bummer is that all those Dominican signings are 16 years old, and we’ll have to wait quite a while to see if any of them pan out.

Speaking of Marcus Giles, wither goes NOG?

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By: Tom Waits

Tom Waits — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 17:12:22 +0000

#102@David Coonce: It’s only foolish if Egon doesn’t hit. He’s hit in the minor leagues and never got a chance to play. Now he’s hitting exactly like he did in the minors. I think I was fairly clear that Egon’s value, in order, arises from his ability (possibly) to post a 100 OPS+ or better, to do so at league minimum, and then as a nice benny for his younger brother. We didn’t sign Marcus Giles to keep Brian happy; Brian was a Padre regardless. We signed Marcus because he had a pretty good track record as a hitter and defender, and if he had continued that, there was a chance to lock up second base at a fairly cheap price due to the brother factor.

#101@David Coonce: You’ll get no argument from me about the limitations of the Padre draft strategy. In 03 and 04 it was brutal; the new regime has made better picks, but Dykstra makes you wonder if their new process is really that different or if they’ve simply executed the standard Padre draft process better.

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By: David Coonce

David Coonce — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 16:53:42 +0000

And keeping Edgar Gonzalez around to "keep his brother happy" is foolish. We tried that at second base last year. Brian Giles has actually been better this year, without his kid brother around.

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By: David Coonce

David Coonce — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 16:51:23 +0000

#97@Tom Waits:
Well, first off, as far as younger players go, I suppose it would be nice, once and for all, to see if Ambres or Mcanulty can ever get enough sustained playing time to show that their minor-league numbers are all park-influenced fluke. I’m just about ready to call McAnulty a bust, but he’s tearing the cover off the ball at AAA, and he’s never gotten any sort of sustained ML playing time, although I’m not sure where you stick him at this point to do so. His minor league numbers certainly look like somebody who could contribute.
But, of course, neither Ambres or McAnulty is particularly young. They’re both 28. I had hopes for Huber, too, but he never got a chance to play, either with the Pads or in AAA and has been pretty brutal.

SO I don’t know; looking at san Diego’s minor league system, as I’ve been doing for the last hour, is pretty depressing. It’s the result of a fatally flawed drafting premise that pushes signable guys with low upside over true talents. It’s what gave the Padres Matt Bush in 2004 when Verlander, S Drew, Jeremy Sowers, Phil Hughes, Homer Bailey, Jeff Niemann and Jered Weaver were all available. It’s the philosophy that took Tim Stauffer ahead of Conor Jackson, Nick Markakis, Paul Maholm and Carlos Quentin. The Padres have skimped on the draft for years, only to throw money at minor-league veterans with no upside, and this team is the end result of that. This, I think, is the point I’ve been trying to argue - that San Diego can’t achieve what it wants to unless it gets serious about drafting and developing good players. this year’s Dominican camp signings are a start, a very positive one, but then their terrible decision to draft Dykstra in the first round (and he’s not going to sign, probably) undid some of that progress. You can’t build a team around cast-offs and journeymen. You have to develop talent, and the Padres just aren’t doing that right now. All the league-average second basemen in the world won’t change that.

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By: Steve C

Steve C — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 16:29:05 +0000

1. I agree that the unknown is dangerous but I just don’t see the core group of players that the pads have right now getting the job done any time soon. After this season Hoffman and Maddux are prob going to be gone, Giles may have one more year of being a league average RF, and who knows if Bard and Greene will bounce back next year, Bard might if he only plays 4 times a week but Greenie has looked so lost at the plate this year its hard for me to believe he will be able to find his stroke again.

2. Its not that the 2008 players are bad, well the bullpen is but other than that every one is rather average for their position so if one part fails then you all of a sudden become a below average team.

3. I think Hunter may have a chance to become a star but your right there is not much else star level talent down on the farm at the moment, but that really is not the reason why I think the Pads should re-build, my reasoning has more to do with my #1, the roster is about to turn over due to age anyways, I don’t think the Pads can make a run next year unless they are willing to spend some money in the offseason which I don’t see happening so they might as well start to fill the roster with the talent that they have planned for the future.

4. #3 can be added, with Maddux, Giles, Wolf and Hoffman gone that free’s up close to $30 mil that they can spend om a #3.

There’s not enough talent on the farm for a short re-build but I dont see the Pads expanding the budget to fill in the holes with FA’s…

This years team does not have the same core as last years team so they really are not just one player away anymore…

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By: Tom Waits

Tom Waits — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 16:07:55 +0000

#98@Steve C:

The lure of the unknown is dangerous. Most prospects do not pan out. Most playoff teams (not behemoths like the Red Sox or Yankees) are composed mostly of average players with a few stars. What you have to ask with the Padres is:

1. How many players are actually average or somewhat above and just playing below their talent level in 2008?

2. How many 2008 Padres really are this bad?

3. How many players with good chances to be stars are there?

4. Do you have enough of #1 and #3 that you can win by minimizing #3 and adding more talent, or is it basically hopeless?

There is not nearly enough talent down on the farm to make it a short rebuilding process, and not enough tradeable pieces to significantly shorten that time. They may have missed their rebuilding window in the winter and spring of 2008.

If you really wanted to rebuild, then Bell’s gone and probably Agon, too.

As for playoff success - let’s say Bradley doesn’t get hurt last year. Is there any reason, any reason at all, to think that the Padres couldn’t have been as successful as the Rockies? I mean, if you’re one player away from possibly being in the World Series, and you HAD that player, he wasn’t just a pipe dream, can you really say the Padres were just mumbling along and would have been easy meat in the first round?

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By: Steve C

Steve C — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 15:33:07 +0000

#97@Tom Waits: I don't know, obviously what the Pads have now is not working, yes they have had some regular season success in the past few years but what do they have to show for it? One playoff victory since 1998 and now they are once again on place to lose 100 games maybe it is time to sweep the decks of the old guard of all but Peavy, Gonzalez and Bell and start to usher in the talent that the padres have been grooming down on the farm, there will be a transition year or two that may be tough but will it really be any worse than this year has been? At least there would be some kind of future to look forward to at that point.

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By: Tom Waits

Tom Waits — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 14:58:11 +0000

#95@Steve C: It’s not ideal, but if you’re a .500 - .540 team in July next year, in first place or close to it, nothing stops you from trading for a player who makes you a lot better than a .500 team. Better teams do go deeper in the playoffs. That doesn’t mean that you need to sweep the decks of the 2008 Padres and trade everybody, even for pennies on the dollar, to make yourself better. The time to trade Greene, if we were going to do it, was last winter. Moving him now is just throwing away money.

#96@David Coonce: Solid Regular is not the same as Great Career. If you can get 1-2 or even 3 years of 100 OPS+ from Egon, while making his brother more likely to sign an extension, all for the league minimum….sure, everyone would rather have Uggla or Utley at second base, but Egon’s not a negative. Nobody has a superstar at every position, a league-average hitter at the minimum is pretty valuable. He’s not going to stand in Antonelli’s way, if Matt bounces back, and he’s not going to block Sogard. I hear you on the age, but I doubt the Padres are looking at either him or Gerut as locks for starting roles in the future. That’s why they’re asking for up-the-middle players in trades.

The only young position player who looks like he might be ready to play in the majors, but isn’t, is Will Venable. He’s had 4 months in his minor league career where he looks like an offensive plus, and the positive scouting reports on his defense in CF, oddly enough, date from those same 4 months. What starting pitchers in Portland look ready to go?

Sometimes you promote a guy and it helps him learn and helps you figure out if he’s ready. Other times you promote a guy and he struggles badly and his development is set back. I’d rather see some more sustained success out of Venable, Geer, and LeBlanc before promoting them. Just which young guys do you want playing right now? With Geer we might be better off keeping him in the minors to retain what trade value he has; his numbers don’t shout good major league pitcher.

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By: David Coonce

David Coonce — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 14:34:24 +0000

#94@Tom Waits:
You see, you make the best point of all in #6 - a .500 record might win the division. That’s problematic on a lot of levels, but to me it’s an excuse to achieve mediocrity- “Hey, we might stumble into the postseason” - and therefore keep mediocre players around. You’re right that alomost nobody on this Padre team has any value in a trade, so it’s worth seeing if Bard or Greene can turn it around.

But if Edgar Gonzalez truly becomes a solid regular at age 30 - well, I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but I would guess that guys who made their major league debuts at age 30 and went on to have great careers could be counted on one hand. I think Tony Fossas may have been 30 as a rookie, but he was a specialist, not a starter.

I’m not opposed to keeping him or Gerut around - a team needs backups, but if somebody offered anything of value to the Padres for either - and let’s face it, that’s a longshot - San Diego would be foolish not to listen.

The Padres shouldn’t be working toward stumbling into another 2005. They need to figure out which players give them the best shot at winning 90 games, and right now is the best time to do that. Playing some young guys to get some idea of whether or not they’ll ever contribute would be a start.

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