Comments on: Whatever Happened to Controlling the Strike Zone?

By: malcolm

malcolm — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 03:45:09 +0000

Part of the vast difference is the frequency of hits v. BB. The total BB are 43% of hits. Adjusting the average annual delta by this % results in a 49 point variance annual variance from winning % for BB vs 12.44 for hits. Does anyone there see what I'm attempting to show? The columns headings need to be aliegned in the order of the #'s.

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By: malcolm

malcolm — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 03:38:06 +0000

Hits vs hits allowed is a hugely greater predictor of the Padres variance from .500 in the years 2000 through 2008 than BB.
year hits hits allowed delta win^ frm500 hit ^ BB^from500
2000 1413 1443 -30 -31 1 16
2001 1379 1519 -140 -12 128 214
2002 1393 1522 -129 -83 46 48
2003 1442 1458 -16 -105 89 59
2004 1521 1460 +61 +37 24 107
2005 1416 1452 -36 +6 42 91
2006 1465 1385 +80 +43 37 53
2007 1408 1406 +2 +46 44 37
2008×2 1692 1806 -114 -111 3 109

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By: Pat

Pat — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 22:48:37 +0000

#27@Pat: Oops, thought I was responding to LM. That last paragraph is what I believe his larger point is; not sure if it’s Loren’s larger point or not.

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By: Kevin

Kevin — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 22:48:21 +0000

#26@Loren: They are last in the league in on-base percentage:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....p;type=reg

So I think the problem is they haven’t loaded up on guys who can get on base.

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By: Pat

Pat — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 22:46:53 +0000

#26@Loren: “The padres prove that if you load up a team with guys who can solely get on base and nothing else then your going to lose playing station to station.”

Disagree. I think GY’s data above shows something quite different. For example, as shown, this is the first year since moving into Petco that we are walking less than the league average and it’s also our first losing season since moving into Petco. Based on what I quoted above, it seems you are thinking that this year’s team is still one which is getting on base well, but it is not.

Still, I agree with your overall point that it is better, perhaps even necessary, to have more than just an on base skill. Power, speed, high BA should all be enhanced by good OBP/command of the K zone/ability to draw a walk, whatever you want to call it. If you’re a slow singles hitter with a .250 BA, even if you add 100 points to it to come up with a .350 OBP, you’re probably not much of an asset at the plate.

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By: Loren

Loren — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 22:26:38 +0000

AGon should be out of today’s line up as well, just give him another day off or so and let him rest up.

Giles should be thrilled he’s returning to the place he hit so many home runs last year in.

#24 & #25
The issue isn’t so much controlling the strike zone but, as i’ve said before, controlling the strike zone must be accompanied by another talent (speed or power primarily). The padres prove that if you load up a team with guys who can solely get on base and nothing else then your going to lose playing station to station. Dykstra, Decker and Forsythe have power with their strike zone control, Tekotte has blazing speed.

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By: JMAR

JMAR — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 21:25:07 +0000

#24@LynchMob: From what I’ve read, their first three picks (Forsythe, Decker, Dykstra) all control the zone very well, as well as a bunch of their other draft picks (Codiroli, Tekotte, Robertson).

Re: Decker’s power - I haven’t noticed too many kids right out of high school hitting a ton of HR’s in rookie ball. Can you think of anybody? They’re adjusting to wooden bats so that might have something to do with it. Either way, nobody’s gonna complain when the guy has an OBP of nearly .600.

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By: LynchMob

LynchMob — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 20:41:03 +0000

From what I can see, Jaff Decker can and does “control the strike zone” …

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.....k_pdrrok_1

… 0-for-1 today with 3 walks … and the video that’s out there of him in an HR derby makes it look like he’s got some power … but with only 1 HR in 64 ABs, that looks to have some developing to do …

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By: LynchMob

LynchMob — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 20:38:42 +0000

#21@JMAR: It was good to see Myrow start for Adrian yesterday …

Portland Beavers playing a day game …

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.....a_poraaa_1

… Ramos on the mound …

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By: Kevin

Kevin — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 20:36:54 +0000

#21@JMAR: Black's failure to rest him twice a month is sort of silly.

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