You Read It, You Name It

I enjoyed my day off so much, I believe I’ll take another. The agenda is roughly the same:

  1. Drink coffee
  2. Play with dogs
  3. Watch Stargate SG-1
  4. Play Mob Wars
  5. Read Lillian Ross’ Reporting Back (where I learned, among other things, that the great Hungarian composer Bela Bartok once wrote a piece for Benny Goodman; I’ll need to get my hands on a copy of that)
  6. Pass out on couch
  7. Wash, rinse, repeat

Oh, and somewhere in there I have to write an article… Do I know how to party, or what? Anyway, I’ll have the IGD up around 6 p.m. or so. Twins are in town for three. It’ll be a hoot…

113 Comments

  1. Steve C
    Posted June 24, 2008 at 7:41 am | Permalink

    Extra Sports is floating the rumor that a Kouz for Bay trade is in the works. They did not give their source but they said it was someone in the Padres front office.

  2. Phantom
    Posted June 24, 2008 at 7:49 am | Permalink

    #1@Steve C: Wow, that would seem pretty damn one-sided right now. Bay is a FA after this year, right?

    Also, the UT’s got an article this morning saying that we are neither buyers nor sellers. I gotta think we’re closer to sellers at this point since Interleague play has torpedoed all of our momentum: http://www3.signonsandiego.com/news/2008/jun/23/point-padres-say-theyre-neither-buyers-nor-sellers/?padres

  3. Posted June 24, 2008 at 8:09 am | Permalink

    Nothing against SG-1, but if I had the day off, I’d be watching the last 2 minutes of the last BSG a few more times.

    #2@Phantom: It’s so hard to decide where we are now. Arizona has come back, but there are some cold, nasty bits of data out there. 3rd worst run differential and not many reinforcements for our weak spots, either via trade or on the farm.

  4. Posted June 24, 2008 at 8:09 am | Permalink

    #1@Steve C: Supposedly that was on the table before the season but the Pirates wanted Headley and the Padres declined. Maybe with one of their top prospects struggling – Neil Walker in AAA – they might be willing to bite.

    If the Padres think they could sign Bay – I would do it.

  5. Posted June 24, 2008 at 8:11 am | Permalink

    #4@John Conniff: Me too. You’d think the Pirates might be able to do better, with several teams looking for OF help. If they really like Kouz maybe we could leverage it with a 3rd team.

  6. PM
    Posted June 24, 2008 at 8:12 am | Permalink

    Geoff, when you say pass out on the coach, you don’t mean pass out, do you? If so, woo hoo, carry on.

    Anybody see yesterdays UT article on the big D. Looks like Becky is more interested in the Pads then John. Also, anyone with an extra 34 million, I here there is a house for sale on the 18th green at Pebble Beach.

  7. Field39
    Posted June 24, 2008 at 8:14 am | Permalink

    Extra Sports has shown on a consistent basis, that it is possible to be less informed than the fools on 1090. I place zero faith in anything they have to say.

  8. Phantom
    Posted June 24, 2008 at 8:15 am | Permalink

    #5@Tom Waits: Agreed, I think Bay for Kouz would be incredibly underselling on the part of the Pirates. I gotta think there’s another piece of this deal not being reported.

  9. Posted June 24, 2008 at 8:15 am | Permalink

    #3@Tom Waits: Actually, I’ve already done that. My wife bought me the complete series of SG-1, though, so I’m embarking on all 212 episodes.

  10. Phantom
    Posted June 24, 2008 at 8:16 am | Permalink

    Also, and I hate to go here, but is there anything of value we could get from Baltimore for Khalil? We still have no viable replacement for him and he’s starting to hit, but Baltimore is pretty hard up for a SS. Is there anything we could get by floating KG?

  11. Laura Roslin
    Posted June 24, 2008 at 8:19 am | Permalink

    #9@Geoff Young: Earth!

  12. Posted June 24, 2008 at 8:27 am | Permalink

    #10@Phantom: Baltimore has some interesting young arms, but most of their prospects have issues.

  13. Posted June 24, 2008 at 8:30 am | Permalink

    #9@Geoff Young: Color Me Jealous…though my fav is when Col. O’Neil and T’ealc (Sp?) get caught in the time loop. :)

  14. Phantom
    Posted June 24, 2008 at 8:32 am | Permalink

    #12@Tom Waits: Is there any remote possibility we could do Khalil for Adam Jones?

  15. Posted June 24, 2008 at 8:37 am | Permalink

    I prefer LOST. Season 4 was incredible!

    I’d also be down for a Jason Bay for Kouz trade as well. If we could sign Bay at a reasonable price then I think it’s a good move on our part.

  16. Posted June 24, 2008 at 8:40 am | Permalink

    #14@Phantom: Can’t see it for KG alone. They have Jones for 5 more years.

  17. Alan
    Posted June 24, 2008 at 8:44 am | Permalink

    14. No.

  18. Alan
    Posted June 24, 2008 at 8:46 am | Permalink

    Re: Kouz for Bay…

    The trade would essentially be Kouzmanoff for a half year of Bay, possibly a first round draft pick, and an increased chance of signing him, possibly at a below market rate.

    If there was an extension already in the works for reasonable money, go for it.

  19. Posted June 24, 2008 at 8:50 am | Permalink

    Holy Carp…I just saw a pig fly by my window…so I came to Ducksnorts and saw why…Phantom advocating a KG trade.

    I love you Phantom.

  20. Phantom
    Posted June 24, 2008 at 8:52 am | Permalink

    #19@Coronado Mike: Not necessarily advocating, just being a realist. Baltimore really needs a SS. We’d need one to replace KG, but I can’t help but think that the Padres should explore possibilities with any team that really needs a SS.

    I think Khalil is in the process of getting hot and would hate to lose him. But I don’t think he’ll be a Padre after 2009 anyway.

  21. Posted June 24, 2008 at 9:02 am | Permalink

    #20@Phantom: It won’t be easy, because 2008 has drawn down his value and some teams that might have needed a SS before the year don’t now.

    It might be better to wait until the winter. He’s almost surely not going to be a 27 HR, 97 RBI shortstop, and there will only be 1 year left on his deal, but a few hot / warm months will make him more attractive. Like with Kouz, they’ll have to decide if what they get back makes more sense than keeping him and hoping his 2009 looks more like his 2007 than his 2008.

  22. JP
    Posted June 24, 2008 at 9:07 am | Permalink

    #1@Steve C: There is NO WAY the Pirates would only take Kouz for Bay. It seemingly would have to be 2 top prospects and KK to make it a go.

  23. Phantom
    Posted June 24, 2008 at 9:15 am | Permalink

    #21@Tom Waits: That’s also kind of my thoughts. I suppose he could have an extremely hot second half and get close to his numbers from last year, but if he gets that hot then this team should be contending.

  24. JP
    Posted June 24, 2008 at 9:24 am | Permalink

    You don’t find someone of Khalil’s talent defensively once or twice in a couple of decades.

    Kouzmanoff, Iguchi, Hairston, Bard, Barrett have performed below what we expected from them with the stick. As has Greene obviously, but what he brings defensively puts him in a different class from the underachievers on the list above.

  25. Posted June 24, 2008 at 9:25 am | Permalink

    Re. 22: I was thinking that if I was running things, I wouldn’t take Bay only for Kouz… The Pirates aren’t anything special this year and Bay walks after this year, Kouz is ready to help that team now (and until Alverez is ready).

    (BTW, I’m blogging again: http://padresrundown.blogspot.com/ )

  26. Steve C
    Posted June 24, 2008 at 9:27 am | Permalink

    #22@JP: I don’t know they would control kouz for the next 4 years and all they would be losing is half a year of Bays services and possibly an extra 1st round draft pick

  27. JP
    Posted June 24, 2008 at 9:27 am | Permalink

    Kouzmanoff is also a major risk because of his recurrent back problems.

    I sort of see him becoming a Wes Helms like player — not bad at all (10+ year mlb career) but not a star.

  28. Posted June 24, 2008 at 9:29 am | Permalink

    #24@JP: There are plenty of guys in the Major Leagues right now that are as good defensivly as KG…probably more than a few in the NL alone.

  29. Alan
    Posted June 24, 2008 at 9:31 am | Permalink

    24. Bay is a free agent. He’s not worth that much if they can’t sign him.

  30. JP
    Posted June 24, 2008 at 9:31 am | Permalink

    #28@Coronado Mike: We agree to disagree on this one. Are you basing your position on defensive ’statistics’ ?

  31. JP
    Posted June 24, 2008 at 9:35 am | Permalink

    #29@Alan:For that reason, I don’t think Bay will come here via trade. Truth is, the Bucs can get a lot from a contender that’s willing to take the risk so why would they settle for KK in a trade w/the Padres ?

  32. Mark Ase
    Posted June 24, 2008 at 9:35 am | Permalink

    Bay is a very, very nice piece for this team. He’s hitting .283/.393/.524

    Petco would sap some of that power-but as we’ve found .400OBP’s don’t grow on trees. Combine Bay with Adrian and Headley you’ve got the beginnings of a good offense-perhaps a very good offense if they can find some spare parts-like a CF.

    Mark

  33. Ben B.
    Posted June 24, 2008 at 9:37 am | Permalink

    According to Cots, Jason Bay has a contract for next year for a very reasonable $7.5 million. So he’s got a year and a half before free agency. It’s basically the same situation Texas was in with Mark Teixeira, and Bay is a similar quality hitter to Teixeria (Teixeira career 130 OPS+, Bay 131). Teixeira didn’t have the scary red flag of Bay’s year last year, but he also plays first base, not left field. Considering the haul Teixeira got, I would say getting Bay for a deal centered around Kouz would be a good one.

  34. JP
    Posted June 24, 2008 at 9:41 am | Permalink

    #31@JP: Would the Pads risk renting Bay for a 1/2 season and then losing him ? I would say no. But is it possible to work out an instant 3 year deal with Bay as part of the deal ? This makes me nervous as Bay is getting up in age. Now that I think about it, getting Bay may not be the direction the Pads want to go in. Price too high now.

  35. JP
    Posted June 24, 2008 at 9:42 am | Permalink

    #33@Ben B.: If you are correct here then ….Wow ! Getting him might not be that costly….

  36. Posted June 24, 2008 at 9:44 am | Permalink

    #13@Rain Delay: Yeah, that’s way up there. The juggling scenes are classic.

  37. Posted June 24, 2008 at 9:48 am | Permalink

    #30@JP:

    JP Khalil is a good defensive shortstop but nowhere near the player you are making him out to be. Once every 10 years? Don’t get jaded by the flashy plays he sometimes turns. He’s the 3rd best SS in the National league west for example. He doesn’t have nearly the range or arm of guys like Furcal or Tulowitzki. He’s good but let’s be serious.

  38. Phantom
    Posted June 24, 2008 at 9:50 am | Permalink

    #30@JP: Gotta agree with you on this one, JP. Defensively, I think probably only Omar Vizquel and maybe Tulo can hang with Khalil. Tulo’s got a better arm, but Khalil has better instincts off the bat.

  39. Posted June 24, 2008 at 9:52 am | Permalink

    #22@JP: Nobody’s giving up 2 top prospects and a quality major league starter for Bay. Pittsburgh would be lucky to get 1 good prospect, a lesser-ranked guy, and an erratic young reliever for him.

    #24@JP: I haven’t seen anything that suggests Greene is a once-in-a-decade defender. An aging Vizquel was as good or better than Greene from 04 to 07. We should be skeptical of fielding stats, but they pretty much all say that.

  40. Phantom
    Posted June 24, 2008 at 9:53 am | Permalink

    #37@KRS1: Better arm does not a better shortstop make. People tend to forget that Khalil has a tremendous arm, he just doesn’t use it when he doesn’t need to. He’s been quoted on several occasions saying that he only throws as hard as he needs to given the situation.

    Furcal at this point is more injury-prone than Khalil and is older. He’s a better offensive player, but I think it’s a stretch to say that Furcal is a better defender.

  41. Posted June 24, 2008 at 9:59 am | Permalink

    #39@Tom Waits: Due to Ben B’s research, let me amend the first part of that. For 1.5 years of Bay, the price would be higher. But you still don’t see that many top prospects going too often, especially if there’s a legitimate major leaguer in the deal as well.

  42. Posted June 24, 2008 at 10:08 am | Permalink

    #40@Phantom: Without getting into exact rankings, I’d definitely side with KRS and others. Greene’s a good defender, but he’s not in any sort of class by himself.

  43. Phantom
    Posted June 24, 2008 at 10:09 am | Permalink

    #40@Phantom: I should also add that after looking at their BR pages, Khalil and Furcal have similar career OPS+. Khali’s OPS+ over 630 games is 98. Furcal’s OPS+ over 1146 is games is 96.

  44. Posted June 24, 2008 at 10:10 am | Permalink

    Geoff, I think I have a hung comment…

  45. Phantom
    Posted June 24, 2008 at 10:11 am | Permalink

    #42@Tom Waits: I wouldn’t say he’s “once in a decade” but I think he’s better than Furcal defensively. I think that aside from Vizquel, and maybe Tulo, there isn’t a better defensive SS in the NL.

    Also, I should add that Furcal’s career fielding percentage is 10 points lower than Khalil’s. Obviously fielding percentage isn’t the be-all, end-all of fielding stats, but that’s something. It’s also worth mentioning that Khalil’s fielding percentage is trending upwards while Furcal’s is heading down.

  46. Ben B.
    Posted June 24, 2008 at 10:12 am | Permalink

    #41@Tom Waits: I still agree with you that the price for Bay is not going to come close to the price for Teixeira. For whatever reasons (Bay’s terrible year last year, Teixeira playing in Texas’ launching pad, Bay playing in the anonymity of Pittsburgh, Bay’s terrible year last year, Bay not being a highly regarded prospect his whole life), the perception is that Bay is just not in Teixeria’s class.

  47. Posted June 24, 2008 at 10:22 am | Permalink

    #44@Peter Friberg: I’m juvenile, but that cracked me up.

    #45@Phantom: No disagreement on Furcal, but there are several measurements that put him in (sometimes at the bottom of) the Top 5-7 NL shortstops the last 3 years. Furcal’s typically been lower than that.

  48. Posted June 24, 2008 at 10:25 am | Permalink

    Re. 47: It’s a seemingly well-hung comment. I mean it’s been hung since the 20’s…

  49. Posted June 24, 2008 at 10:25 am | Permalink

    #47@Tom Waits: By “him” in my response to Phantom, I meant Greene. Most fielding measurements put Greene in the upper half or upper third of NL shortstops.

  50. Posted June 24, 2008 at 10:26 am | Permalink

    #30@JP: We can base it on almost any measure you want…reputation, tools, definsive metrics…

    A sampling of SS’s that are as good with the glove or better:

    Tulo
    Jack Wilson
    Vizquel (yes, even today)
    Adam Everett
    Orlando Cabrera
    Jose Reyes
    Jimmy Rollins
    Rafael Furcal

    That is at first blush and off the top of my head…I am sure if we did some research we could come up with others. I know this may seem like more of CM baggin on KG…it is not. It is simply me taking up against your comment in #24…he is nowhere near a guy whose defensive prowess comes along only “once or twice in a couple of decades.”

  51. Posted June 24, 2008 at 10:26 am | Permalink

    #48@Peter Friberg: When the Ducksnorts email filter nails a comment, it stays nailed.

  52. Posted June 24, 2008 at 10:37 am | Permalink

    #40@Phantom: I never said that arm strength alone is what makes a SS. Khalil’s arm is fine and his range is fine too but it is not top notch.

    I really don’t want to get too involved in a Furcal is better argument because I am at work and I can’t due enough research to back up my statements (if that research exists). I just think Furcal’s range to his right and left is unreal and it seems to be holding up decently with his age. His arm is un-godly and he routinely makes plays that leave my jaw hanging every time I catch a Dogs game.

    Again no knock on Khalil he’s good but he isn’t elite or the 2nd coming of Ozzie Smith.

  53. Phantom
    Posted June 24, 2008 at 10:59 am | Permalink

    #50@Coronado Mike: I would staunchly disagree on Rollins and Reyes. Their offensive value and perceived toolsiness makes people frequently mistake them for outstanding defensive shortstops. I would also quibble about Jack Wilson, but I think he’s better than both Reyes and Rollins. I obviously do not buy into the Rafael Furcal hype. So with my reservations, that list goes down to five.

    I definitely think Khalil is one of the three best defensive shortstops in the NL and is probably close to top 5 in baseball. A great defender? Yes. A “once in a decade” talent? No.

  54. Posted June 24, 2008 at 11:31 am | Permalink

    #51@Tom Waits: Heh-heh, you said “nailed.” Heh-heh…

  55. Posted June 24, 2008 at 11:41 am | Permalink

    fwiw, I just updated my shortstop fielding numbers (the data taken from the hardball times, easily turned into a plus/minus ’stat’) …

    Top 5 in NL:
    Hardy: +14.4 runs
    Escobar: +14.2
    Izturis: +6.5
    Vizquel: +5.3
    Tulo: +4.2

    …. Greene: 2.2 (12th in NL)

    Others of note: Rollins, Drew, Furcal — all pretty much average (+0), Reyes is -9.

    Justin from On Baseball and The Reds did pretty much the same thing with 2007 data (I’d link to it, but for some reason my computer won’t let me copy/paste):

    Greene was +9 and 6th in the NL (behind Tulo, Reyes, Wilson, Everett, and Vizquel).

    Personally, I think he is above average, but not once in a decade or best in the league or anything like that. I’m also not going by just these numbers, as you’d want more years and probably a better metric to truly determine stuff like this (not to mention, scouting, etc.)

  56. Posted June 24, 2008 at 11:46 am | Permalink

    For Greene, that was supposed to be +2.2, btw.

  57. JP
    Posted June 24, 2008 at 11:51 am | Permalink

    #39@Tom Waits: When you listen to the out of town color men on the various mlb.tv broadcasts (usually former players that know the game) simply rave about the defense of Greene then you know that you have something pretty special. I think phantom put it best, the guy just has good instincts off the bat are exceptional and he makes difficult plays often look easy.

    Of course, he isn’t comparable to Ozzie Smith but who is ? I certainly never said he was.

  58. JP
    Posted June 24, 2008 at 12:02 pm | Permalink

    I may have got carried away in my calling Khalil a once a decade shortstop only because in terms of this franchise’s history, he truly is. Maybe I should take off my Padre blinders off though I always seem to put them back on when I see that the franchise has no options in the farm system to replace him for at least 3 years. This franchise now –the way it is run now –will not sign a big time free agent to play shortstop and the thought of being stuck with something like a Luis Rodriguez/Manny Alexander platoon gives me anxiety. In fact, I had a nightmare about it two days ago.

  59. Posted June 24, 2008 at 12:05 pm | Permalink

    #57@JP: A lot of broadcasters also rave about Jeter’s defense, though. They rave about Tulo. They still rave about Vizquel.

    “once or twice in a couple of decades” is awfully strong praise. If he’s not better than Vizquel now, there’s no way he’s better than Vizquel was 10 years ago. I don’t think anyone would dispute that Greene’s one of the top defensive SS the last 3 years. MB’s post seems to be a pretty accurate representation of the general feeling. Extending beyond that puts us on shaky ground.

  60. Posted June 24, 2008 at 12:11 pm | Permalink

    #58@JP: Well, as we long-suffering Padre fans know, it’s distressingly easy to make the once-in-a-decade Padre list.

  61. JP
    Posted June 24, 2008 at 12:18 pm | Permalink

    #56@MB: how does the Ranger’s Michael Young rate defensively when compared with Khalil Greene as far as the defensive measurement that you look to ?

  62. Phantom
    Posted June 24, 2008 at 12:21 pm | Permalink

    #58@JP: I agree with you on this. Khalil is, at this point, the best SS in team history. In our 40 years as a professional team, you get kind of attached to guys that are the best your team has ever had.

    I also agree wrt to the out of town broadcaster thing. I watch all of the games on MLB.TV or listen on XM, and they routinely praise his defense as some of the best in the league.

    Tom, you make a good point that people also praise Jeter. But most everyone in NY is praised for something. For a player like Khalil, who plays on a team that gets little national attention, to receive similar praise is probably more indicative of his true talent level. Listening to out of town broadcasts, the two players that are always lauded are Adrian and Khalil.

  63. Posted June 24, 2008 at 12:22 pm | Permalink

    #60@Tom Waits: Which doesn’t mean Greene isn’t the best SS, overall, the Padres have ever had. He is. But in general, there are many positions at which a couple of good years qualifies a player to be once-in-a-decade as a Padre. Mike Cameron’s may be a Top 5 Padre CF. Adrian Gonzalez is almost certainly already a Top 5 Padre 1b.

  64. Posted June 24, 2008 at 12:24 pm | Permalink

    #51@Tom Waits: that’s not true … i often have posts eaten … i use the ‘Contact’ link above to notify GY … and he gets the post out of the spam-bin and into the comment string … and lately it seems to be acting on those learnings … as it’s letting links to milb.com and yahoo.com, etc, get thru …

  65. Posted June 24, 2008 at 12:35 pm | Permalink

    #64@LynchMob: I was going for the linkage of “nailed” to “hung” in Peter’s posts, not actually speaking of any inflexibility on the part of the filter.

  66. Posted June 24, 2008 at 12:38 pm | Permalink

    #61@JP:

    2007: -14.2 runs (7th from bottom)
    2008: -3.1 (13th from the bottom)

    Young is generally considered one of the worst fielding ss’s, I believe.

  67. Posted June 24, 2008 at 12:46 pm | Permalink

    #62@Phantom: We’d have to watch a lot of non-Padre baseball to know what they say about everyone else, though. For example, late last year I ended up watching too many Rockies games. Tulo and Helton got a lot of praise for their defense. It doesn’t seem that useful without a wider base.

    IIRC, MB linked to Tangotiger’s fan scouting system sometime in the not-too-distant past. Last year that system put Greene 7th in the bigs among SS. He was further back in the pack in 2006. None of the defensive measurements are totally complete or convincing, but they all seem to say about the same thing: Greene’s a very good defender. When you factor in his typical offense (not 2008), he’d jump up to top 3.

  68. Posted June 24, 2008 at 12:47 pm | Permalink

    #66@MB:

    btw, feel free to ask me about anyone else or whatever …

    Here’s the ‘07 data that Justin did: http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pfk_WuYpfduzefA8-s0_iYw&gid=4

    You can find ‘08 on my blog under fielding, although they are not updated (about a week old or so).

  69. Posted June 24, 2008 at 12:52 pm | Permalink

    #66@MB: Oddly enough, by RZR Young ranks above Greene this year. So does Jeter. KG beats them both in OOZ plays.

  70. Posted June 24, 2008 at 12:59 pm | Permalink

    Jaff is playing TODAY!

    http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=g_box&gid=2008_06_24_brrrok_pdrrok_1

    … he’s 1-for-3 so far, with an RBI and a SB! Playing LF.

    A new era has begun? :-)

  71. Posted June 24, 2008 at 1:00 pm | Permalink

    #65@Tom Waits: Well, as Steve Martin used to say, ex-cuuuuuuuse me! :-)

  72. SDSUBaseball
    Posted June 24, 2008 at 1:00 pm | Permalink

    #21@Tom Waits: Khalil wasnt exactly setting the world on fire this time last year. I think there is a chance he could approach last years numbers. He has always been a 2nd half player. That said, if we can get something for him I would be all for trading him.

  73. Posted June 24, 2008 at 1:02 pm | Permalink

    #69@Tom Waits:

    Yeah, I have Young at +3.5 plays in zone, -7.5 out of zone, so that’s where he’s really getting hurt.

    Greene: +2.3 in zone, +.6 out of zone.

    (remember, they get combined and converted to runs after).

  74. JP
    Posted June 24, 2008 at 1:03 pm | Permalink

    Ranking Young (RZR) above Greene defensively is a sham.

    What is the rubric that RZR uses ?

    Herein lies the problem of a total and complete reliance on defensive stats.

  75. Phantom
    Posted June 24, 2008 at 1:04 pm | Permalink

    #72@SDSUBaseball: I’m sure we can get something for him, but it really depends just what that something is. Trading him right now would probably be selling low, as it would be with Kouz. But Kouz is under control for longer and could likely bring a better bounty than Khalil. The other factor that you absolutely must consider is that there are organizational replacements for Kouz. If we trade Khalil, we either have to hope we have something else in the pipeline or else Luis Rodriguez becomes our everday SS.

  76. Posted June 24, 2008 at 1:09 pm | Permalink

    #70@LynchMob: He gave up a leadoff double in the 9th which came around to score, but Mr. Colin Lynch managed to get a game-ending GIDP for Save #2 in Game #2 for the AZL Padres … Go Lynch! :-)

  77. Posted June 24, 2008 at 1:10 pm | Permalink

    #74@JP:

    I believe it uses the zone(s) in which shortstops make at least 50% of the plays. So any balls in those zones are “in zone” balls. everything else is out of zone.

    So Young ranks better on in zone plays, but Greene still kills him overall (because he’s much better out of zone). Also, remember, a half year of fielding stats are hardly reliable. Most analysts want at least 2-3 years because they (fielding stats) aren’t as reliable as offensive stats.

  78. Posted June 24, 2008 at 1:29 pm | Permalink

    #72@SDSUBaseball: That’s true, but at this point last year he had a 746 OPS with 11 HR. Now he’s at 641 and 7. To get close to 2007 from here is an awfully steep hill.

    #74@JP: As MB explains, RZR is just one part of the defensive measurements that the Hardball Times uses. It’s “in zone” plays, and halfway through the season it’s going to have more noise than it will in September.

    I don’t know anybody who relies completely and totally on defensive stats. We know that announcers say great things about shortstops other than Greene. We know that the informed fans who contribute to Tangotiger’s project say that Greene is quite good but they don’t consider him the true upper echelon. Every objective measurement puts Greene in the very good category. As long as no one’s saying he’s a historic defensive talent, or on the other hand that he stinks, i don’t see that there’s really a dispute here.

  79. Posted June 24, 2008 at 1:32 pm | Permalink

    #77@MB: Yeah, that’s exactly why I called attention to it. Even the guys who constructed THT’s fielding system wouldn’t say Young is better, it’s just an interesting piece of data. So far it looks like Young has taken care of most everything hit near him, but he’s not doing anything else with the glove.

  80. JP
    Posted June 24, 2008 at 1:34 pm | Permalink

    #77@MB: Gotcha. I don’t want to close to anything of value to gain insight either. I want to learn. Thanks.

  81. JP
    Posted June 24, 2008 at 1:36 pm | Permalink

    #78@Tom Waits: “As long as no one’s saying he’s a historic defensive talent, or on the other hand that he stinks, i don’t see that there’s really a dispute here”.

    Understood. This has been a good discussion. Thanks.

  82. Posted June 24, 2008 at 1:48 pm | Permalink

    #78@Tom Waits: I think you hit it on the head…He is not a top end guy, but certainly above average. I no longer argue that he is Chris Gomez with a bat…he is better than that. I was wrong.

  83. Posted June 24, 2008 at 1:53 pm | Permalink

    #80@JP:

    No problem, JP … glad I could help a little : )

  84. Schlom
    Posted June 24, 2008 at 1:56 pm | Permalink

    82 posts (so far) when Geoff didn’t put anything up….yep, it’s a Khalil bashing/supporting day.

    Khalil talk gets people more fired up then my bashing of the Padres front office for their draft! :)

  85. Phantom
    Posted June 24, 2008 at 2:09 pm | Permalink

    #84@Schlom: It’s actually been a pretty substantive discussion that has lacked vitriol. I feel like this is a momentous day in the history of the blog.

  86. Posted June 24, 2008 at 2:14 pm | Permalink

    #85@Phantom: indeed … well done guys/dudes/gals/etc …

    Cal League All-Star game tonight …

    http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=l_sco&lid=110

  87. FriarFanDan
    Posted June 24, 2008 at 2:17 pm | Permalink

    Mad Friars is reporting that Luis Domoromo (16, Venezuela, CF) will sign with the Padres. ESPN has him rated as the #5 Latin prospect and estimated that he’d get $1.2 million.

    http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3433834

  88. Posted June 24, 2008 at 2:18 pm | Permalink

    From FJ Blog, Steve Garrison is TL Pitcher of the week …

    http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080623&content_id=421983&vkey=news_milb&fext=.jsp

    Texas League
    Steve Garrison, San Antonio
    1-0, 1.39 ERA, 2 G, 2GS, 0 CG, 0 SHO, 13 IP, 11 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 18 SO

    … that’s a nice 2 outings!

  89. Posted June 24, 2008 at 2:23 pm | Permalink

    Here’s a youtube of Sawyer Carroll that I just found …

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2GlDKufD3gs

    … a HR he hit while playing for Kentucky vs Michigan …

  90. Phantom
    Posted June 24, 2008 at 2:31 pm | Permalink

    MLBTR is reporting that the Giants just DFA’d Vinnie Chulk. Would we have any interest in him? He seems to be a somewhat consistent reliever and has an career ERA+ over 100.

  91. Schlom
    Posted June 24, 2008 at 2:34 pm | Permalink

    Speaking of draft, did everyone see that Forsythe is out for the regular minor league season for being a moron?

    http://www3.signonsandiego.com/news/2008/jun/23/using-headfirst-slide-padres-prospect-wasnt-using-/?padres

    You would think that in baseball where only results matter, people wouldn’t choose style over substance but I guess with the praise that the “gritty” players get (Eckstein, Erstad, Jeter) it’s hard to keep some players for doing dumb thing like this.

    I brought this up yesterday but I wonder if the Padres really care that much about the injury and the time loss? For a team with their financial constraints, they prefer to call their players up as late as possible to ensure that they get as much prime years before they lose them to free agency. If a players first year in the majors comes when they are 24 then they’ll get that player through their 29. It makes a lot of sense, especially if there is no reason to rush your prospects (last year Headley couldn’t contribute and this year there’s was no real reason to bring him up earlier).

  92. Posted June 24, 2008 at 2:51 pm | Permalink

    #91@Schlom: He’s not getting any better not swinging the bat. He’s not learning to play 2b sitting in the trainer’s room. The Padres can’t be happy with those outcomes.

  93. Posted June 24, 2008 at 2:54 pm | Permalink

    #90@Phantom: Depends on his shoulder. He’s had pretty good K/9 numbers as a major leaguer. Might be more of an investment for 2009 than help this year, but we’re going to need relievers next season.

  94. Posted June 24, 2008 at 3:10 pm | Permalink

    I was jumping on the ‘trade Khalil’ bandwagon in the off-season because of the rumors that he wanted to go back to the east coast after his contract is up but I’ve cooled on that thought for this reason. With Chase Headley now a permanent fixture in the lineup, Khalil is not going to be asked to be anything more than a #7 hitter on this team.

    So as poor as this offense is perceived, they have a 20+ HR hitting, defensively-gifted shortstop, batting in the #7 hole. I’m very happy with that.

    The big mistake of the off-season was thinking that Khalil was a #5 or 6 hitter and Kouzmanoff was a #3 or 4 hitter. For now, that has been corrected so I’m willing to move forward with the current lineup although I’d like to see the team improve the catching situation and bench. I’d really like to see Chip Ambres and Brian Myrow get a shot this season. It’s worked so far with 30 year-olds E-GON and Gerut, why not two more guys that have never gotten a chance to prove themselves in the big leagues.

  95. Ian C.
    Posted June 24, 2008 at 3:18 pm | Permalink

    im more than ready for a Ambres-Pmac switcheroo here at any time.

    and T clark hasnt done much except the one game winner he had. myrow cant be worse at defense its not even plausible and his bat might prove to be an improvement as well…who know

    i know Geoff’s a big Myrow supporter

  96. FriarFanDan
    Posted June 24, 2008 at 3:19 pm | Permalink

    #91@Schlom: Grady’s quotes are classic

    Fuson called the 21-year-old’s headfirst slide a “dumb” move. “We preach to the players, no sliding headfirst, especially to home,” Fuson said yesterday. “We’re not smart enough to think someone would slide into first.”

  97. Posted June 24, 2008 at 3:22 pm | Permalink

    I think people are underselling the offense as it is currently composed a little. We have above average hitters at first, second, third, left, center and right. Having below average performances from your catcher and shortstop isn’t the worst thing in the world. And both our starters at those positions were above average last season.

  98. Posted June 24, 2008 at 3:24 pm | Permalink

    I know Adam Everett did get one mention today, but I think he would be the best defensive shortstop since Greene has entered the majors.

  99. Posted June 24, 2008 at 3:26 pm | Permalink

    #95@Ian C.: Don’t let Lance catch you talking about “big Myrow supporter” … especially not on a day when even TW is being juvenille ;-)

  100. Posted June 24, 2008 at 3:47 pm | Permalink

    re: bully … I s’pose it could be worse … BP’s STAT OF THE DAY

    Bottom 5 2008 NL Bullpens, by WXRL

    Team, Inh Runs Prevented, WXRL

    Houston Astros, -2.3, 2.5
    St. Louis Cardinals, -12.1, 2.6
    Atlanta Braves, -2.6, 2.8
    Washington Nationals, -16.2, 2.9
    San Francisco Giants, 0.3, 3.1

    … whew, the Padres are not on that list!

  101. Posted June 24, 2008 at 3:53 pm | Permalink

    Lineups are up at FJ Blog …

    http://padres.mlblogs.com/archives/2008/06/lineups_for_tuesday_june_24_vs.html

    Minnesota (40-36)
    Carlos Gomez, CF
    Alexi Casilla, 2B
    Joe Mauer, C
    Justin Morneau, 1B
    Michael Cuddyer, RF
    Jason Kubel, LF
    Brendan Harris, SS
    Brian Buscher, 3B
    Kevin Slowey, P

    Padres (32-45)
    Jody Gerut, CF
    Edgar Gonzalez, 2B
    Brian Giles, RF
    Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
    Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B
    Chase Headley, LF
    Khalil Greene, SS
    Michael Barrett, C
    Jake Peavy, P

    … OG and KK back in the lineup … Chase back out to LF …

  102. Schlom
    Posted June 24, 2008 at 3:58 pm | Permalink

    #92@Tom Waits: Yes, but he’s really only missing 3 months after playing a long college season. Taking into the fact that he’s pushing his projected major league timetable by roughly a year plus getting some rest, I’m sure the Padres don’t really mind that.

    For a “frugal” organization like the Padres you should take every advantage you can get. If this injury means that Forsythe comes up when he is 25 rather then 24, wouldn’t that be a blessing in disguise?

  103. Alan
    Posted June 24, 2008 at 4:11 pm | Permalink

    You know, that lineup shouldn’t be that bad…

  104. JP
    Posted June 24, 2008 at 4:17 pm | Permalink

    #102@Schlom: You see that, some love for Ambres. Why not give him a shot ? It’s not like he is the same age as Fernando Tatis and he can run a little bit with some pop and play what I would assume to be average defense.

    BTW, does anyone out there have a defensive scouting report on Ambres ?

  105. Schlom
    Posted June 24, 2008 at 4:18 pm | Permalink

    #96@FriarFanDan: That quote struck me as kind of strange. Obviously you wouldn’t slide head first into home when the catcher is set and completely blocking the plate, but if he’s out in front of the plate or not completely set, doesn’t it make it more sense to try to touch the plate with your hand then with your feet?

    Shouldn’t you preach that you get to the bag or plate the most efficient way possible? In some rare cases sliding into 1B might be the best way — if the throw is off the bag toward the plate and the 1B needs to make a tag.

  106. Schlom
    Posted June 24, 2008 at 4:25 pm | Permalink

    #104@JP: You converted another one!

    I’m certainly not against calling up Ambres — not to be a starter but I wouldn’t have a problem with him being a bench player. He’s definitely earned it by plugging away in the minors — 965 games in the minors and 58 in the majors (53 in 2005 with the Royals and 3 with the Mets last season). I’d rather see him (or players like him or Myrow) then Tony Clark. Not because I dislike Tony Clark but I’d almost always have the younger player or the minor league veteran get a shot — Tony Clark’s already had a great career.

  107. Posted June 24, 2008 at 4:26 pm | Permalink

    #105@Schlom: Sliding head-first work only if the player knows how to do it. Rose and Rickey knew how. Many others players get hurt doing it.

  108. Posted June 24, 2008 at 4:30 pm | Permalink

    #103@Alan: Probably not that good either. :-)

    I hope to catch 3 innings before I fall asleep.

  109. FriarFanDan
    Posted June 24, 2008 at 4:40 pm | Permalink

    #105@Schlom: I just like the tongue-in-cheek, “We’re not smart enough to think someone would slide into first.”

    With regard to sliding into Home, I think you’re right. But as Kevin stated, the organization is probably willing to sacrifice the rare occasion where a headfirst slide would have been the only way to score a run in order to prevent players from hurting themselves

  110. Tom Waits
    Posted June 24, 2008 at 4:51 pm | Permalink

    #102@Schlom:

    1. The Padres have total control over his major league timetable anyway. He could put up a 1.500 OPS in Triple A for 4 straight years and they’re under no compulsion to promote him.

    2. The team just paid him 800K because they thought his bat might play at the major league level. He just suffered an injury that makes it less likely his bat will play at the major league level. Yes, I’m sure they’re happy.

  111. Posted June 24, 2008 at 4:54 pm | Permalink

    #109@FriarFanDan: The risk of injury is entirely too high to justify sliding head first into home at any time.

  112. Posted June 24, 2008 at 5:23 pm | Permalink

    OT … very tough outing for Arroyo …

    http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore?gid=280624114

    … 10 ERs in 1 IP … ouch!

  113. Posted June 24, 2008 at 6:06 pm | Permalink

    #112@LynchMob: I’m glad I’m not a Mets’ fan …

    http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore?gid=280624121

    … in more ways than one! Ouch!

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