Series Preview: Jon Weisman Talks Dodgers
Tue, Jun 10, 2008
by Geoff Young
Jon Weisman has been blogging about the Los Angeles Dodgers (team of my youth, but let’s just sweep that under the rug) since July 2002 at Dodger Thoughts. He also writes about baseball in general at SI.com and the entertainment industry at Variety. Jon and I recently chatted via the mystical magic of email about his team, the NL West, and old-school catchers.
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Ducksnorts: What happened to the NL West, and how do you like the Dodgers’ chances now versus at the start of the season?
Weisman: It seems more or less like everything that could go wrong, has — except for in San Francisco, but expectations were notoriously low for them. Are there five players in the division doing better than people thought they would? (Don’t answer — that’s rhetorical).
I guess the Dodgers’ chances are about the same as they were when the season began, now that Arizona has come back to the pack. But the lost season of Andruw Jones is going to be hard to overcome. I hedged my bets and picked Arizona to win the division in April, and I can’t say I’m changing that prediction at this point.
Ducksnorts: James Loney’s numbers are down this year, and he’s hitting into a Rice-esque number of double plays. What’s the story there?
Weisman: There’s some speculation that he’s a second-half player, but he’s too young to have that kind of label yet. I just think he’s not in a power groove right now. I’m not particularly worried about Loney fulfilling his potential, but he’s never going to be Albert Pujols.
Ducksnorts: Same with Brad Penny. How can a guy with his stuff have an ERA north of 5.00?
Weisman: His strikeout rate has been declining for a while, and the balls have been landing for hits lately. I’m not any kind of pitching expert whatsoever, but I’m not sure how much variety there’s been in what he throws. He’s the Dodger starting pitcher I’m most worried about — but I say that almost as a good thing. If Brad Penny is the biggest concern in your rotation, you’re in pretty good shape — especially when there are alternatives in the organization like Hong-Chih Kuo or James McDonald.
Ducksnorts: When is Andruw Jones due back, and can he salvage his season?
Weisman: Jones could be back in roughly a month, but who really knows? I still find it hard to believe he’s completely done as a player, but I suppose his disappointing 2007 season with Atlanta has become a best-case scenario. He may well become the Dodgers’ worst free-agent signing ever, which is kind of saying something. But his lack of contribution this year has been a huge factor.
Ducksnorts: On the bright side, Chad Billingsley is developing nicely and Blake DeWitt has been a pleasant surprise at third base. How good can these guys be?
Weisman: I’ve been saying for a while now that in an age-to-age comparison with Don Sutton, Billingsley is ahead. I really think he can have a long and fruitful career in this game.
DeWitt is a pleasant surprise, and in being so he has wildly outperformed my expectations. He’s a lefty batter and he’s OPSing 1.041 against lefties right now, which is one of the things I’m dubious of him sustaining. I’d love to see him make a transition to second base, but I don’t know if that’s in the cards. Anyway, he’s shown he can have a career — his approach at the plate has been marvelous. Still too early to do much more forecasting than that, though.
Ducksnorts: How does Clayton Kershaw look so far?
Weisman: It’s been interesting. His stuff is tremendous, but the growing pains are there. In addition to his 96 mph fastball and killer curve, he does have a changeup he occasionally uses, so he’s not without weapons. But as much as he’s been striking out guys (14 in 14 2/3 innings), he’s also gotten worked a little bit, allowing 24 baserunners. So … after three starts, it’s been a wild and wooly ride. I can accept him being in the majors and continuing to learn — as long as people can understand he’s still learning and not freak out if he gets hit — or being optioned to consolidate what he’s learned so far. Still love, love, love his future.
Ducksnorts: Joe Ferguson, Mike Scioscia, or Steve Yeager?
Weisman: I have special feelings for all three for different reasons — Ferguson for his classic throw in the ‘74 World Series and his October 1980 homer, Yeager for his ‘78 WS homer and his survival skills. But Scioscia was just a great catcher to have.
Ducksnorts: Agreed. I wore #14 growing up because of Scioscia.
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Thanks again to Jon for stopping by and chatting with us. Best of luck to the Dodgers in the series — here’s hoping they finish a close second in all three games…
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June 10, 2008 at 8:09 am
Eh, not that close a second :-p
There’s an interesting article in this morning’s UT about what the new draftees can expect as they enter the Padres system: http://www3.signonsandiego.com.....rm-system/
Oh, and nice article in the Padres magazine. The picture of you clapping is priceless.
June 10, 2008 at 8:32 am
What are the pitching matchups for this series?
June 10, 2008 at 9:21 am
#2@LynchMob: Instant classic tonight with Greg Maddux taking on Clayton Kershaw. Tomorrow night it’s Randy Wolf against Chad Billingsley (looks like Josh Banks is getting skipped for now). Thursday afternoon Jake Peavy makes his hopefully triumphant return against Hiroki Kuroda.
June 10, 2008 at 9:24 am
3 … thanks, BenB … it’ll be good to get Jake back in the mix … is it obvious who will get sent down when Jake gets activated? (I’ve been a bit heads-down lately, thanks for covering the basics for me)
OT … i don’t know that i agree with this, but here’s a look at the potential HOF class of 2012 that will at least make you think …
http://mlblogs.mlblogs.com/arc....._2012.html
June 10, 2008 at 9:34 am
Here’s what’s going on with Mooneyham …
http://www.mercedsunstar.com/194/story/296306.html
Link courtesy of ramrodd @ MadFriars …
Bottom line appears to be … “”It would have to be something really, really special,” Mooneyham said of the Padres’ offer. “Going to Stanford only comes around once and not a lot of people get that chance.”
June 10, 2008 at 9:51 am
#5@LynchMob:
“One thing is certain: The Padres will have to produce a princely contract offer — one that includes a hefty signing bonus– to lure Mooneyham away from Stanford.”
‘Nuff said. Probably the end of that story.
June 10, 2008 at 10:04 am
#6@Jeremy: I would assume that if the team feels he’s legit, they’ll get it done. The hard part when it comes to judging how the Padres judge Mooneyham is the fact that they drafted him a little late.
June 10, 2008 at 10:09 am
7: I think that’s signability problem. He’d have gone a lot higher. However, I don’t see him passing up going to Stanford, a strong program getting better the next two seasons. The Padres might have to try and pick him again in 2 years.
June 10, 2008 at 10:25 am
#7@Phantom:
Yeah, but the reason they picked him late is because of his strong commitment. It was the same thing for Peavy and Latos. I really hope they can get something done! Many scouts regarded him as the 2nd or 3rd prep arm in the draft and the best prep lefty.
June 10, 2008 at 10:28 am
#1@Phantom:
Exactly. I am hoping for three 10-0 games in favor of our boys.
June 10, 2008 at 10:30 am
OT … it bugs me a bit that the ad for the MLB All-Star game on the Padres site is a pimp-job for votes for Padres … but I would brush it off completely if it weren’t for the fact that Jim Edmonds is one of the names being pimp’d …
http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com.....amp;y=2008
… seems like somebody at mlb.com’s gotta realize how dumb that looks … $minorrantoff …
June 10, 2008 at 10:35 am
#7@Phantom: Ha whats slot for the 465th pick?
June 10, 2008 at 10:54 am
BEAT LA! BEAT LA! BEAT LA! BEAT LA!
Just getting in the mood
June 10, 2008 at 10:54 am
#12@Steve C: A bag of baseballs?
June 10, 2008 at 11:09 am
#7@Phantom: Their most recent similar experiences say it won’t get done (Colon, Green, Toledo). None of those three were as highly regarded as Mooneyham or had the same kind of college commitment. The “highly regarded” could cut both ways; maybe the Padres are willing to go significantly north of 1 million for him when they wouldn’t for Green or Colon.
They were able to convince Latos to go to a JC, so they could follow him for another year and not have a slot figure to worry about. Not an option here.
June 10, 2008 at 11:25 am
Richard … in response to your question, I’ve just posted this on DePo’s blog …
Baseball America has done a good job for many years of tracking and reporting on draft signings … here’s a link to their 2008 Draft Database for the Padres … as players are reported signed, their name will be changed to a bold font …
http://www.baseballamerica.com.....?team=1016
June 10, 2008 at 11:49 am
#16@LynchMob: And there’s also pages on mlb.com … here’s a link to the 2007 draft results …
http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com.....mp;year=07
… which includes “date signed” … so I’ll keep an eye on that for a new link to 2008 draft results.
June 10, 2008 at 12:09 pm
OT … a fun a free article about the recent Padres’ run of 4 2-1 victories in a row …
http://www.baseballprospectus......cleid=7642
June 10, 2008 at 12:51 pm
Man! I still can’t believe the FO didn’t pony up and spend the money on Andruw Jones. He’s a stud!
June 10, 2008 at 1:45 pm
Dunno if anyone heard, but Ledezma is being DFA’d and Thatcher is being brought up. This should be fun.
June 10, 2008 at 1:46 pm
#20@Phantom: And here is some proof: http://www3.signonsandiego.com...../—-/
June 10, 2008 at 1:56 pm
#19@Peter Friberg: Sarcasm recognized, but he sured tanked fast and hard. I guess it’s still feasible for him to come back and be productive again, but he sure looks done after last season, this season to date, plus the injury. It will be interesting to see how the rest of his career plays out.
June 10, 2008 at 2:03 pm
Ledezma wasn’t terrible as a reliever:
http://www.baseball-reference......role-sprel
He just didn’t throw enough strikes to be a starter but I’m not sure he’s any worse then Thatcher (unless he starts pitching like he did last year). Ledezma is a tantalizing pitcher for sure, you don’t see too many lefties with his stuff. If only he could learn how to throw strikes. Probably won’t be with the Padres as I’m sure someone will claim him.
June 10, 2008 at 2:03 pm
22: It’s not like the Padres didn’t offer him a one year deal. So, his fast decline wasn’t seen as permanent. Even now, I hope he bounces back and healthy. He was a CF to watch, not as joyful as the Kid who just belted his 6ooth HR.
Still, I’m glad the Padres are facing Juan Pierre rather than Jones for the series.
June 10, 2008 at 2:05 pm
23: He was only great in extra innings.
June 10, 2008 at 2:18 pm
#24@Didi: Yes, I surely didn’t think it was permanent. Perhaps it was just the knee bothering him this year.
June 10, 2008 at 2:25 pm
HEAD’S UP … I just noticed this announcement from Baseball Prospectus … Pizza Feed 2008 is *ON*!!!
BP BALLPARK EVENT IN SAN DIEGO
On Friday, July 11 join Joe Sheehan and Dave Pease for baseball talk prior to the 7:05 p.m. game start time. Other guests and ticket purchase information are coming soon, but if you’re in Southern California and want to talk baseball and catch a game at Petco, be sure to check this out. You’ll find future updates about the event at:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/events/
June 10, 2008 at 3:18 pm
#3@Ben B.: Sad to hear Josh Banks is getting skipped over. That kid had some wicked stuff the other day.
GY: Nice interview.
June 10, 2008 at 3:28 pm
#18@LynchMob: I’m hearing ‘Twilight Zone’ music as I read that. Is that an omen? If they beat LA tonight 2-1, then I’ll be freaked.
June 10, 2008 at 3:37 pm
#27@LynchMob: Aw man. There’s no way I can finagle a trip to SD then.
June 10, 2008 at 3:46 pm
#27@LynchMob: Right after I get back from Cabo. I’m so there!
June 10, 2008 at 4:13 pm
Thanks Howard.
June 10, 2008 at 4:44 pm
27: Thanks–that’s awesome. We should make sure that we’ve all got some sort of Ducksnorts gear on for the event.
June 10, 2008 at 5:09 pm
Diamondbacks getting smoked again tonight 5-1 in the 5th.