One area where Padres pitchers have struggled so far in 2008 is with runners in scoring position. Opponents are hitting .270/.371/.434 against them in those situations. Only four teams — the Marlins (823), Tigers (837), Rockies (859), and Rangers (916) — have allowed a higher OPS. Unfortunately, Padres pitchers also rank seventh in MLB in plate appearances with RISP. Bad combination, that.
Last year, opponents hit .266/.343/.391 against Padres pitchers with RISP. The OPS of 733 (rounding error) was good for sixth best in MLB. Here’s a more detailed look:
| MLB | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Padres | Total | Low | High |
| Statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference and are through games of June 10, 2008. | ||||
| 2007 | 733 | 780 | 711 | 874 |
| 2008 | 805 | 756 | 654 | 916 |
We’re not concluding anything here, just observing…
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Quick programming note: In-laws are in town this week and part of next (don’t worry, I like them, which reminds me: when looking for a potential mate, be sure to scout the rest of the family; just call me Doctor Love), and I’m working on several other projects, so posting may be light for a spell. Stuff will get done, I just may not be as involved as usual. So, you know, pretend to miss me or whatever. 
I haven’t been much used to expecting them to win this season…last night sucked. It was worse because we didn’t get beat by the Dodgers, we effectively beat ourselves. The two defensive miscues in the 7th torched us, as did Pierre’s SB in the first (would have been caught in a 1-6-3 DP if he didn’t steal on Ethier’s comebacker).
Kouz killed us at the plate last night. The 3-2 pitch against Kershaw with 1 out and runners on first and third was maddening. The ball was a straight heater at his feet and he swung. Khalil promptly flied out to CF. If Kouz had been able to get on, we at least get a run out of that situation. Just frustrating as hell.
re: I haven’t been much used to expecting them to win this season … well said, Phantom … and then to get the outing from Maddux that could have been sufficient for a 6th in a row …
Pretty quiet here this morning … sounds like the wind got sucked out of a lot of our sails last night … Billingsley vs Wolf tonight … game on!
re: Draft … it’s interesting to me that no one has yet voted “No” in the “Latest Poll” (Are you happy with the Padres 2008 draft?). I voted “Yes”. I understand the basis for any folks who would vote “No”. I guess that if any of the 15 folks who have so far not voted “Yes” are not happy with it, that they realize that a better bottom line is that none of us really have any “freakin’ clue” about it … and I really appreciate that aspect of this DS community. It was fun to engage in the pre-draft discussions … follow the draft on the 2 draft days both here and on DePo’s blog … and then to sift thru what did and did not happen … and as it’s been fun to follow the progress of Carillo and Headley and Antonelli recently, I’m looking forward to seeing Dykstra and other draftees in Eugene starting June 22nd.
It was particularly infuriating because it seemed like everything the Dodgers hit hard was an out and everything they hit poorly fell in for a hit. Their hits in the four run rally in the 7th were a dropped line drive to right, a dropped fly ball to left, a grounder that rolled between the Gonzaleses, and an infield single to Khalil. Nothing was hit particularly hard in the 9th either. And then you have the inning earlier in the game where they have runners on the corners with no outs and Matt Kemp lines back to Greg Maddux for the double play, and they don’t score. Very weird.
You had to figure that the pitching starved Yankees wouldn’t have given Sean Henn away if he was anything worth keeping. Accordingly, Henn has been as bad as a pitcher could possibly be since he arrived here. Did you see his line last night at Portland ?
#3@Ben B.: Exactly. In fact, the Dodgers first five runs all scored off of bleeders (2 singles to the right side by Martin and the IF single to Khalil).
It seems like the league might have figured out Kouz, as he was started with breaking pitches pretty regularly last night. It makes total sense since he hacks first pitch. Hopefully this will cause him to be a bit more selective.
#2@LynchMob: It sounds like Dykstra signing soon is a foregone conclusion. While I understand that DePo needs to protect the organization, that’s exactly what bothered me about his comment on draft day, claiming that the Padres weren’t just going for affordable talent because they drafted a Boras client. Two completely disparate things. My guess (an informed guess from watching the draft for 10+ years, but still a guess) is that the Padres have a sliding scale that weights signability differently depending on rounds. Like, “We really don’t want to waste a 1st rounder, so we pick guys we’re 95% sure we can sign.” Then, as the draft progresses, signability carries less weight.
#6@Tom Waits: You are correct but you have the wording wrong. Since almost every first round pick signs (the last unsigned 1st rounder was Wade Townsend of Rice by Baltimore in 2004, one from 2002, two in 2001) the Padres don’t draft someone that they are 95% sure that they are going to sign, but a player that will take 95% (in reality probably less then that) of the money to sign.
#5@Phantom: If it were that simple, the league would have figured Kouz out last August. Kouz hammers hanging breaking pitches, so if you’re going to throw him one first pitch it can’t just be a get me over. Not too many pitchers can throw a good breaking ball for a strike consistently.
When I saw in the box score that Bud didn’t go “by the book” and bring in Meredith to open the 7th, it reminded me of this quote I had seen recently …
Originality is a thing we constantly clamor for, and constantly quarrel with.
–Thomas Carlyle (1795-1881) Scottish essayist, historian
OT … if you’re a fan of Chipper Jones, you’ll find this freebie @ BP fun & interesting …
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7652
Bottom Line: he’s got a 12-13% of finishing the season with a .400+ BA … go!
Speaking of the draft, just got this interesting little nugget from Baseball America talking about international signings:
The teams showing more interest in big-money international signings this year than in the recent past include the Reds, Athletics, Padres, Astros, Cardinals and Indians, with the Padres strongly linked to at least three players who could sign for seven-figure bonuses.
That would certainly be out of character. The deadline for international signings is July 2nd.
Here’s the full article:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/international-affairs/2008/266316.html
#11@Schlom: So if we do that, will you back off on the Padres FO a bit?
From Elias Sports Bureau:
Greg Maddux left after six innings with a 2-1 lead Tuesday night and watched as the San Diego bullpen blew the lead. It was the fifth time this season that Maddux left a game as the pitcher of decision on the winning side only to watch his win disappear. The five “blown wins” suffered by Maddux this season is the most for any pitcher in the major leagues.
#11@Schlom: Based on some discussions I’ve had with folks who should know, a more aggressive approach to international signings wouldn’t surprise me at all. I can’t elaborate now, but we will touch on this a bit in the coming weeks.
#14@Geoff Young: It’s just odd. They refuse to spend money on players that are closer to their prime and that there are a ton of scouting reports about but they’d spend millions on unproven 16 year olds with dubious birthdays?
I’m not saying that I’m against it, just that it seems odd. I think everyone realizes that you have so spend money to get better players but the amateur draft seems to be a better gamble.
Of course, we hear lots of things about the Padres potentially spending money that don’t come true.