Comments on: Padres Farm Report (11 Jun 08)

By: Richard Wade

Richard Wade — Thu, 12 Jun 2008 01:22:00 +0000

#11@Schlom: My point is that the peripherals are all still strong and when judging a prospect that's usually what you focus on.

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By: JP

JP — Thu, 12 Jun 2008 00:41:20 +0000

re : Antonelli - I would call it a horrific 1/2 a season rather than a bad start. He tailed off big time last year as well so we might as well call it a 1/2 a season though we are 40% of the way into this one. Can anyone recall such a horrific stretch by a so called prospect position player then success at the major league level ?

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By: Schlom

Schlom — Thu, 12 Jun 2008 00:25:22 +0000

#10@Richard Wade: Regardless of his low BABIP, his problem is that he’s hitting .167 in a hitters league. That’s awful. So what if 1 in 3 of his hits are for extra-bases as he’s only getting a hit every 6 at-bats (so roughly 1 XBH every 18 AB’s, that’s terrible)?

#9@BigWorm: That’s a potential problem. Sogard is a year younger and is less regarded so I don’t they’d promote him if it hurt Antonelli’s future chances.

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By: Richard Wade

Richard Wade — Thu, 12 Jun 2008 00:11:15 +0000

#8@Schlom: 15.2% BB, 16.0 BB K, 34.4% XBH, .95 BB/K... The only thing wrong with Antonelli is his BA/BIP which is about 60 points south of where his line drive rate suggests it ought to be. The guy has had a run of bad luck to go with a dip in his line drive rate. Let me know when he stops drawing walks, starts striking out too much and stops hitting better than 30% of his hits for extra bases.

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By: BigWorm

BigWorm — Wed, 11 Jun 2008 22:45:35 +0000

#8@Schlom: His birthday is early April so he would be 24 when the 2010 season started (he turns 24 next April). I agree age is a big factor, I just don't see him as having missed his window of opportunity. I also agree, his performance this year is MUCH more concerning to me than his age. At least he is still drawing walks, that gives me hope. . .ok, not a lot of hope, but it's something. So what if Sogard gets promoted to AA in the near future? Then you almost can't send Antonelli down unless one of those guys is in for a position change.

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By: Schlom

Schlom — Wed, 11 Jun 2008 21:56:32 +0000

#7@BigWorm: 25 you mean (2 years from this year).

Age is the most important factor for long term success. Obviously the younger they are, the better they are going to be. And the reverse (the older they are, the lower their long-term expectations are going to be) is true as well.

Actually, the more I look into it, the alarming thing isn’t his age (that’s secondary) but the fact that’s he been so terrible. If he spends the whole season at Portland, he’s going to hit at best .240 (that would take about a .365 average the rest of the way) but probably somewhere around .220. That’s really bad. For example, in the Pacific Coast League in 2005 only 2 players in the top 100 in at-bats hit below .240 — John Baker and Jason Bowers. Anybody ever heard of them? Probably not since neither made the majors. In 2006 there were seven — 3 are out of baseball now, and only one made it to the majors (for 3 games with the Rockies last season).

That’s not a good sign.

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By: BigWorm

BigWorm — Wed, 11 Jun 2008 21:22:06 +0000

#4@Schlom: Antonelli just turned 23 two months ago. If he is dropped to AA, spends next year in AAA and starts 2010 with the Padres he will be 24 on opening day. Younger than Kouz during his first year and barely older than A-Gon during his first year with the Padres. Maybe Antonelli has hit a wall, but he certainly isn't a non-prospect or a terrible first round pick because of his age. Only time will tell if these last two months have been a minor setback or a complete career derailment.

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By: Tom Waits

Tom Waits — Wed, 11 Jun 2008 19:09:12 +0000

#5@Tom Waits: To clarify a bit, I'm sure Antonelli's value is down now. But it's not accurate to say that he was a terrible first round pick or that his status as a good prospect is over.

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By: Tom Waits

Tom Waits — Wed, 11 Jun 2008 18:38:06 +0000

#4@Schlom: There are a lot of 23-24 year olds in AA. He was drafted as a junior, made it to AA in his first full pro season. A lot of teams would have held him in High A all of 2007. He's not behind on the timeline. There's also a lot of good pitching in AA, which he did hit.

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By: Schlom

Schlom — Wed, 11 Jun 2008 18:30:24 +0000

#3@Tom Waits: I don’t know about that. He’s 23 right now, if he drops back to Double A that means he’ll probably be 25 (at the earliest) that he makes the majors. That doesn’t make him an useless player obviously but that really hurts his prospect status. However, the biggest worry is that he can’t hit good pitching. I don’t know how many players in the majors have hit below .200 for a significant part of a minor league season (I’m betting it’s pretty low) but that has to be a big warning sign.

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