IGD: Padres vs Twins (26 Jun 08)
Thu, Jun 26, 2008
by Geoff Young
Padres (32-47) vs Twins (42-36)
Josh Banks vs Scott Baker
12:35 p.m. PT
no television
AM 1090, FM 105.7, XM 183
MLB, B-R
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
June 26, 2008 at 8:58 am
Details are up about the Baseball Prospectus Petco Event …
http://www.baseballprospectus......red/?p=922
Prior to the game, we’ll be meeting up in the auditorium at Petco with Prospectus Today author Joe Sheehan and Paul DePodesta, Padres Special Assistant for Baseball Operations. Gates open at 5:05pm, and DePodesta will begin speaking by about 6:00pm. We anticipate a Q&A segment, so come prepared with some good questions!
To be admitted to the auditorium, you’ll need to purchase a game ticket by visiting http://www.padres.com/promo and using the promo code HITS. On July 11, bring your ID to the auditorium and you’ll be given a pass to get in for each ticket you purchased (so if you purchase three tickets, you get three passes). You must purchase a ticket this way to be admitted to the auditorium. These tickets are standard Upper Infield Reserved, there’s no markup for this event, and we’ll all be sitting together during the game. You’ll also get a sweet beach towel at the gate.
… this seems a bit more formal that in past years … but $18 for tix and an hour with DePo sounds like a good deal to me! I’ll be there!
June 26, 2008 at 10:04 am
#1@LynchMob: Thanks for the heads up. I’m in!
June 26, 2008 at 10:28 am
A couple of interesting notes from this NCT article (which is primarily about Allan Dykstra) …
http://www.nctimes.com/article.....0fbfa6.txt
Manager Bud Black said Clay Hensley, who earned a win for Triple-A Portland after throwing six innings and 81 pitches last Friday, is the Padres’ best option when they next need a starting pitcher.
Black said the team’s younger pitchers —- Cesar Ramos, Josh Geer and Wade LeBlanc —- aren’t “quite ready” to pitch in the big leagues for an extended period of time. The other starter at Portland is Justin Germano.
Hensley has been working his way back since undergoing surgery to repair a torn labrum last August. At first, the team earmarked him for the bullpen, but they’ve since stretched him out to be a starter.
Hensley is 2-1 with a 2.90 ERA in 14 minor-league appearances between Portland and Single-A Lake Elsinore this season, including seven starts.
Manager Bud Black said RHP Kevin Cameron, who has a sprained ulnar collateral ligament, is “getting close” to returning to game action. Cameron has been rehabbing the injury in Peoria, Ariz.
June 26, 2008 at 10:56 am
#1@LynchMob: I saw this, too. I was wondering if we’re going to try to buy tickets in a block so the DS crew can sit together for the game. Thoughts anyone?
June 26, 2008 at 11:55 am
DePo expresses some thoughts on frustration …
http://itmightbedangerous.blog.....tions.html
… which draws this interesting comment about SA on 1090 yesterday …
Sticking with the frustration theme, I caught Sandy Alderson on 1090 today and have to wonder why he bothers to go on only to have his answers and statements consistantly distorted and misrepresented by the hosts and callers?
It seems to me that no amount of discussion will be able to reach those members of the fanbase who reject statistical analysis or whatever else they lump together under the often derogatory label “Moneyball”.
… I sure apreciate that SA and DePo are trying … it takes *a lot* to communicate complicated subjects to many people / customers.
June 26, 2008 at 12:46 pm
Wow, new 3-D Gameday!
June 26, 2008 at 12:50 pm
#6@Pat: Pretty darn cool.
June 26, 2008 at 1:16 pm
Still slow.
June 26, 2008 at 1:24 pm
#8@PM: It’s Pat’s fault.
Picture day during spring training:
Craig Stansberry: Wait, I think my eyes were closed.
Photographer: What’s your name?
Craig Stansberry: Stansberry.
Photographer: Oh, I think they were open. Move along.
June 26, 2008 at 1:29 pm
Would it kill this team to get a bases-clearing double? Sounds like they scored on a botched double-play ball?
June 26, 2008 at 1:36 pm
#10@Stephen: I was about to say the same thing. It’s hard to be unhappy with OG’s sac fly, but on a first-pitch fastball you’d like to see him put a charge into one. The game is tied if Harris doesn’t throw the ball away.
June 26, 2008 at 1:37 pm
Hi fellas,
Long time lurker, first time poster from the UK. For what its worth the game is televised live here - the botch down play was a great piece of hustle by Stansberry going from first to second and braking it up.
June 26, 2008 at 1:40 pm
I’m getting the Twins feed on DirecTV.
June 26, 2008 at 1:42 pm
#12@Padrecoffey: Sorry it’s such a slow IGD day for your first time.
June 26, 2008 at 1:45 pm
#12@Padrecoffey: that’s double play not down play.
Now you know why I lurked and don’t post.
June 26, 2008 at 1:46 pm
OT … you’re prolly gonna see this new eventually …
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/ne.....;type=lgns
… Chacon takes down ’stros GM … ug …
June 26, 2008 at 1:47 pm
The Milton Bradley interview this week was good:
http://www.xxsportsradio.com/c.....0/1618.mp3
June 26, 2008 at 1:55 pm
#14@Tom Waits: tbh, the slow day probably tempted me out of my shell.
June 26, 2008 at 2:00 pm
Chase has taken the first pitch of both ABs so far today … and his BA is now down to .235 … yes, it’s a small sample size, his BA could be back up over .300 before the day is done … but he’s yet to walk … and he’s taking over 85% of the first pitches … granted, almost half of them are balls … so I just don’t know what to make of it … it seems a bugaboo …
June 26, 2008 at 2:01 pm
#18@Padrecoffey: So, how does a bloke like you get to be a Padre fan? And then how did you find Ducksnorts?
Welcome!
Where in UK are you?
June 26, 2008 at 2:04 pm
Thru 5 full …
Pitches-strikes - S Baker 76-52; J Banks 72-42.
Ground balls-fly balls - S Baker 4-9; J Banks 4-10.
Batters faced - S Baker 21; J Banks 23.
… Baker is throwin’ a lot of strikes … as is demanded by the Padres’ “patient approach”. Is it time for the Padres to make an adjustment to this approach?
Banks, on paper (ie. in the stats of the game) seems to be doin’ OK … how’s he lookin’?
June 26, 2008 at 2:04 pm
Says a lot about where club is in June when you have Gerut and Stansberry on top of order versus 7th and 8th in order.
June 26, 2008 at 2:04 pm
At least my nap was nice. Not so nice to have u blow a 3 run lead for the second day in a row, but the Twins are on a roll right now (come to think of it, so were the Tigers and Yanks).
It’s definitely my fault the new gameday is slow. MLB asked me to debug it last week and I decided to go to the beach instead.
June 26, 2008 at 2:07 pm
Banks is getting cuffed around a bit today.
June 26, 2008 at 2:07 pm
AZL Padres *explode* for 13 runs on 17 hits + 8 walks … Jaff goes 2-for-4 + 2 walks …
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.....p;did=milb
June 26, 2008 at 2:10 pm
3 SBs for the Wizards today … but they lost … how can that be? Isn’t “team speed” the key to victory?
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.....p;did=milb
June 26, 2008 at 2:10 pm
I think that Gerut has won his tryout and will probably have a job somewhere (hopefully here) next year. If the club continues to lose with him in the lineup (not insinuating in the least that its his fault) then we should shuttle a few others in here so that maybe the Pads can find a younger more dynamic possibility. Anyway, even if this happens, its not like Gerut isn’t going to suddenly stop getting at bats as he can play all outfield positions.
June 26, 2008 at 2:12 pm
#22@JP: On the other hand, Mike Redmond is hitting 3rd for the 42-36 Twins.
June 26, 2008 at 2:14 pm
#24@Tom Waits: Might you chalk some of that up to “park effects”? ie. it’s my understanding that Petco is more of a “hitter’s park” for day games. So I guess part of what I’m asking is if today seems like a day when the conditions favor the hitters more than a typical day?
June 26, 2008 at 2:16 pm
Not to defend the Padres’ poor play too much, but a big reason they are playing poorly is because they are playing the American League. The other reason they are playing poorly, but I didn’t expect the Padres to go .500 in interleague play.
June 26, 2008 at 2:17 pm
Those Twins really execute don’t they ! Anyone see the Buscher hit to put them ahead 4-3 ? He went down and made contact on border pitch and simply made contact as opposed to a big windmill swing…protecting the plate because that is his role in order to execute. I miss this sort of baseball.
June 26, 2008 at 2:17 pm
#30@Kevin: “the other reason is” is what I meant to say.
June 26, 2008 at 2:20 pm
#22@JP: Gerut has a .350 wOBA this year. A .350 wOBA hitting in PetCo belong at the top of a lineup.
June 26, 2008 at 2:22 pm
Some good links at FJ’s blog today …
http://padres.mlblogs.com/arch.....ne_26.html
June 26, 2008 at 2:24 pm
#33@Richard Wade: In this lineup and with this roster at this time and place, yes.
I am looking to the future.
June 26, 2008 at 2:26 pm
This feels like an AB that Chase should be able to do some damage with …
June 26, 2008 at 2:26 pm
#29@LynchMob: 1 strikeout doesn’t seem like park effects to me, but the ball does seem to travel better in day games.
June 26, 2008 at 2:28 pm
#33@Richard Wade: Agreed.
#35@JP: If Gerut hits like that, he can hit almost anywhere. Whether he can hit like that for a season is an open question.
Baker seems to be elevating his pitches.
June 26, 2008 at 2:28 pm
#36@LynchMob: Bingo! Too bad it didn’t score KK … whassup with that? Now the Padres have to execute … 2nd & 3rd … 1 out … KG up … Luke on deck …
June 26, 2008 at 2:28 pm
#28@Tom Waits: The top of our lineup day in and day out is nothing I want for the future, but then again most of this roster will probably be gutted. Which is fine. I really believe that our farm system is improved and there are some diamonds to be mined. Headley is one of them right now and I really like the way he swings the bat.
June 26, 2008 at 2:30 pm
#38@Tom Waits: I really like Gerut –what do you think would have to be his OPS to justify a roster spot for him (lets say over 200 PA’s) –his defense is not bad at all, would you agree ?
June 26, 2008 at 2:31 pm
Ouch … can somebody tell me what happened? (I know the result … KK out at home)
June 26, 2008 at 2:32 pm
I guess without Huber on the roster, PH’ing for Luke here isn’t an option … is it?
June 26, 2008 at 2:33 pm
Thru 6 full …
Pitches-strikes - S Baker 101-68; J Banks 81-48; B Corey 11-7.
Ground balls-fly balls - S Baker 5-10; J Banks 4-11; B Corey 1-1.
Batters faced - S Baker 26; J Banks 25; B Corey 3.
… wonder if that will be all for Baker …
June 26, 2008 at 2:37 pm
#40@JP: What would you want at the top of the order? Even unadjusted, Gerut’s hitting 290/368/406. Adjusted he has a 114 OPS+. That’s better than Dave Roberts best year, and Gerut’s played better D in CF.
Eight Jody Gerut’s and we’re in 1st place. That’s eight Geruts the way he’s played so far, who knows what the rest of the season will bring.
He’s not going to steal a lot of bases, but it’s way more important not to make outs.
June 26, 2008 at 2:38 pm
#35@JP: Not just on this team. On just about any team. A .350 wOBA at PetCo puts him in the top 50 guys among those with as many PA as him (about 240).
June 26, 2008 at 2:40 pm
#19@LynchMob: Don’t know if you are on to something or not with Headley, who is young and needs time to adjust to the majors.
But my guess is a hitter’s approach should change slightly from pitch to pitch or at-bat to at-bat. Slightly.
For example, Giles is 10th in the league with a .400 on-base. He also hits .297.
But Giles is 57th in the league in pitches per at-bat — 3.71.
June 26, 2008 at 2:45 pm
#47@Kevin: Agree 100% that Chase needs time to adjust to the majors … I’m trying not to come across as to antsy … just noticing what I can … and talking to a friend of mine who watches all the games and whose eye I trust … and he’s saying that his first impression of the 2008 version of Chase Headley is too predictable at taking the first pitch …
The key word is “adjust” … all these guys have talent … no one questions Chase’s talent … and his performance coming up thru the minors confirms his talent … and suggests a good ability to adjust … but the biggest adjustment might just be this last one … into MLB … and it certainly needs to be on-going (ie. he needs to adjust, then the pitchers will adjust, then he needs to adjust, rinse and repeat) …
June 26, 2008 at 2:47 pm
I just listened to the Alderson interview.
A couple callers were really rude. The hosts keep asking about advance scouting, and Sandy keeps telling them why it’s stupid. He was really frustrated at the last caller and the hosts’ last question about advance scouting, and I totally understand why.
It must take everything Sandy has not to say — Yes, I have considered everything you are asking about, and I know way more about this than you do, so pipe down.
June 26, 2008 at 2:53 pm
#49@Kevin: I’m pretty sure you’re not saying that “advance scouting” is stupid … and I’m pretty sure you’re not saying that SA thinks that “advance scouting” is stupid … so what are they asking about that’s stupid?
I think it’s good for SA to get out there and do the radio thing … he’s got the patience / temperment to do it … and do it well …
When I went to the Emeralds Opening Day last Sunday, I sat in GA seats … and had to keep moving because I couldn’t find a place to watch the game without being overwhelmed by the heckling … I know it’s part of the game … but it’s tough to be around … I s’pose baseball needs the revenue from folks who use baseball as an outlet for their frustrations … to some extent, it’s why it exists … I understand … so that’s why I’m glad the Padres have a guy like SA that can wade into that and try to make a difference …
June 26, 2008 at 2:58 pm
Well, that bottom of 7th didn’t go well … seems like it’s down to the bottom of 8th (Adrian, KK, Chase) …
June 26, 2008 at 2:59 pm
#49@Kevin: A couple of callers were rude, and the hosts were carrying Nevin’s water. Regardless, Alderson let himself get angry on the air and that shouldn’t happen.
June 26, 2008 at 2:59 pm
#51@LynchMob: OG got LOOGY’d … didn’t he!
June 26, 2008 at 3:00 pm
#47@Kevin: Where do you get PPA (pitches per plate appearance) data?
June 26, 2008 at 3:03 pm
#50@LynchMob: The Padres do not employ an advance scout (one who actually travels). They do watch tape.
I’m pretty sure that’s why Sandy was saying, and I agree with him.
Listen to the last fourth or third of this:
http://www.xxsportsradio.com/c.....0/1640.mp3
June 26, 2008 at 3:04 pm
#52@Field39: You’re probably right, but I took some satisfaction in it.
June 26, 2008 at 3:05 pm
#54@LynchMob: It’s part of ESPN.com’s many sortable stats:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....mp;minpa=0
June 26, 2008 at 3:11 pm
#50@LynchMob: I think it’s awesome that Sandy does the radio thing, too. But the hosts are bad and ask the same things over and over.
And two or three callers kept intimating that the Padres shouldn’t be built for power and should be built for speed. This happens every week.
Well, the Padres aren’t built for power. That should be obvious.
Every week, Sandy says the philosophy is on-base percentage, not power or speed. He says speed is valuable, but you have to get on-base first. He says the reason the offense is poor is because they are 14th in on-base.
So like the booing the other night, Sandy’s reaction was probably a cumulative one, after being asked about advance scouting many, many times.
June 26, 2008 at 3:17 pm
Twins are using pitchers like this think this game means something … which it obviously does … just sayin’ …
June 26, 2008 at 3:24 pm
#57@Kevin: Thanks … I don’t go to ESPN often … so much graphics and ads … but they do have good info …
Shows Chase at 3.63 P/PA … which is 7th among the 9 “NL rookies” who have >25 PAs since June 17th …
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....e=20080626
June 26, 2008 at 3:30 pm
#60@LynchMob: … and is 75th out of 102 NLers with >25 PAs since June 17th … so that doesn’t seem good … but it’s “small sample” and he is still early in his adjustment period …
June 26, 2008 at 3:32 pm
Gotta PH for Carlin here, right?
June 26, 2008 at 3:36 pm
Wimper …
June 26, 2008 at 3:38 pm
#63@LynchMob: Oops, spell check that …
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/whimper
June 26, 2008 at 3:42 pm
#64@LynchMob: Did you listen to that interview?
June 26, 2008 at 3:51 pm
Just got my ticket to the BP thing with DePodesta. I am really looking forward to seeing some of you guys there.
June 26, 2008 at 4:42 pm
So taking the family out for an early dinner didn’t bring us luck. That was my one throw of the dice.
June 26, 2008 at 4:49 pm
From AP:
Even if the Padres don’t play any better in July, at least their fans will get a break at the concession stands. The team said it has listened to fan input and will sell hot dogs and regular-size soft drinks for $1, and take $1 off beer prices during their nine home games in July. “We hope July Dollar Days will provide some relief to all our fans from higher gas prices and the current overall economy,” team CEO Sandy Alderson said in a statement.
June 26, 2008 at 4:49 pm
#65@Kevin: Listening now …
- a question about “speed” SA turned into a question about “SB”s … I think the source of the question/concern is all the runners thrown out on the bases … most notably at the plate! I understand that it’s always a balance … I think the criticism is that the team is now out of balance … and SA recognized this as a “void” … he’s saying they just don’t execute … eh, sounds right …
- SA’s “biggest missing” = OBP … and the biggest component problem of that is “batting average” … clear enough …
- the questioners did seem over-snarky … SA trying to “strip out the attitude” … good for him
- SA’s seen Inoa pitch! … and isn’t interested in bidding on him … good for him
- “1 advance scout” vs “video + stats” … what’s most effective? I’m guessing that people who talk about the value of and advance scout don’t know what information is being extracted from video+ …
The bottom line appears to be that 2008 is a tough season … “it’s hard day-to-day to lose” … and by that, I think he’s saying that it’s still too close to actually know what you’re learning as it’s happening …
I think SA did well … he got some non-softball questions and he spoke to the issues … and he confronted the issue of “saving $100K on an advance scout” very directly …
June 26, 2008 at 5:21 pm
DePo rebounds from yesterday’s expression of frustration to today being “A Great Day” …
http://itmightbedangerous.blog.....t-day.html
I hadn’t noticed that “Today is the first day that the Padres organization has a full slate of eight games. Our teams in San Diego, Portland, San Antonio, Lake Elsinore, Fort Wayne, Eugene, Peoria, and the Dominican Republic all have games today.” … sounds like a great day to me!
June 26, 2008 at 5:23 pm
#70@LynchMob: And in the comments, DePo spins this gem …
I appreciate the passion you have for this team. The only way to truly enjoy the winning is to take the losing personally.
… BINGO! I’m looking forward to more winning!
June 26, 2008 at 5:31 pm
#69@LynchMob: I thought the key to the interview became his clear denunciation of advance scouting. Just like Oakland, they do not employ one.
And that goes against all of the “traditional” baseball thinking. And the hosts took offense to that. And Alderson to offense to their reaction.
If I was writing a story on the interview, Alderson’s view on advance scouting would be the lead.
June 26, 2008 at 8:36 pm
#45@Tom Waits: If the Dave Roberts of 2006 ends up having roughly the same OPS as Jody Gerut or even a tad less does that mean that Jody Gerut brings more value ? The Roberts 46 stolen bases (06) are of how much value to a ball club ? Can you quantify how much it means to an offense to have guys on the basepaths to disrupt the rhythym of a defense and the pitcher. I’m not sure yet if I buy these neo diamonds views : “speed means little now, it’s all about OBP ” or “If we had 8 PMACS in the lineup we would be at .500″
June 26, 2008 at 8:47 pm
#73@JP: “speed means little now, it’s all about OBP ”
No, that is not the theory. The theory is: If you have a choice between a fast guy who can’t get on base and a slow guy who can, you go with the slow guy. Speed is not bad, stolen bases are not bad. Making outs is bad.
June 26, 2008 at 8:47 pm
Then you look at a guy like Joey Gaithright who is on pace to steal 30+ bases and you legitimately wonder, how much did those swipes mean to his club when he gets on base so little of the time ?
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/7348
June 26, 2008 at 8:55 pm
#75@JP:
Not much, I bet. Those are some awful numbers.
June 26, 2008 at 9:00 pm
#74@Field39: It seems simple doesn’t it ” If you have a choice between a fast guy who can’t get on base and a slow guy who can, you go with the slow guy.
What value and how much emphasis does one put in immeasurable variables related to baseball specifically two aspects : speed and instincts (baseball IQ_)? Assessment cannot always be tied to hard numbers. When a announcer says “you won’t see that in the box score tomorrow but that was big play” is this just meaningless baseball speak ?
I mean, do we even need to watch a game to make the majority of assessments that we do about players ?
June 26, 2008 at 9:04 pm
And I have a fairly knowledgable baseball friend who constantly tells the Pads should sign Corey Patterson.
Don’t worry. I am not a ’speed freak’ enough to share his sentiments on Patterson. He’s worse than Gaithright offensively.
June 26, 2008 at 9:21 pm
#77@JP: All of those things come into play, after you have met the minimume requirements. The slow guy who gets on base doesn’t do much good if he doesn’t know he is slow, or if that piano he is dragging is so big, he cannot score from second on a triple.
You need to watch the game to make subtle assessments, you don’t need to watch a game to know that Manny Rameriz is a monster.l
June 26, 2008 at 10:26 pm
Inman picked for Futures Game …
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/downloa.....osters.pdf
#77@JP: It’s not simple … anyone who says “look at the stats and decide who’s the best player” is being too simplistic … as is anyone who says “I watch the games and I can tell who’s the best player” … it’s take some of both all the time … and that’s what SA will tell you … that’s what KT will tell you … that’s what DePo will tell you … that’s what Grady and Chief will tell you …
June 27, 2008 at 6:31 am
#77@JP: Field39’s response in 79 is exactly what I would have tried to say. If the big hitting skills are equal, of course you want the player with more speed and better defense. If there’s only a little separation between the big hitting skills, then a faster, better defender may be more valuable than the better hitter. But the hitting gap doesn’t have to be all that big before it outweighs speed. Defense is more important than speed, but the hitting gap doesn’t need to be all that big before it outweighs defense, too.
In the specific case of Gerut (what we’ve seen so far), he’s been both a better hitter and defender than Dave Roberts at his best. If Gerut can play like this for 140 games, he’s not only an acceptable option at the top of the order, he’s a substantial asset.
June 27, 2008 at 7:11 am
I think many of the people who say we need speed are refering to it as an approach or even a philosophy. It doesnt mean taking speed over a high BA. I think they mean to model the team after the 1960s Dodgers or 1980s Cardinals. I dont neccessarily agree with that approach, but I think their opinion shouldnt be dismissed and ridiculed as someone who wants to bring in a fast .218 hitter with no power or defensive skills.
June 27, 2008 at 7:55 am
#82@parlo: Can we ridicule them because everyone knows you take a 5 tool player over a 4 or 3 tool guy, but there simply aren’t that many 5 tool guys around?
June 27, 2008 at 8:35 am
#83@Pat:Good Morning. You can do whatever you want, but I dont really see it as being a choice between a five tool player and a three tool player. A greater emphasis on speed is not that ridiculous of a viewpoint. I dont really agree with it, but its not absurd. Its not a cure all, but it is a void that this team has. There are too many Pete Incaviglia type players on this team. There is an abundance of them. I think it is a legitimate gripe.
My big pet peeve is strikeouts and K/BB ratios etc. I complain about it a lot. But that doesnt mean I think AGON is a problem. Its a balance, and a tradeoff. If you bring lots of other things to the table, then high Ks/low walks are not as destructive.
Of course we both know that speed alone wont solve much. KG with speed is just a post 1987 Juan Samuel. And if I had a choice between David Wright and Crawford, I am taking Wright every time.
I think a lot of people use speed as a euphamism for drawing walks, hit and run, manufacturing runs etc. SMALL BALL
Its not the worst idea out there. This team cant even bunt properly or hit and run. Since we are not talented enough to out slug the other team, some peoples attention turns to other options for generating runs. I dont think their opinions should be dismissed so casually.