For those of you who might have “missed” Monday night’s game, here is a quick recap:
- The Cardinals scored their first runs of the game on a fly ball to deep left that Scott Hairston dropped into the stands for a two-run homer.
- They scored their next run on a bases-loaded HBP to Yadier Molina — yes, that Yadier Molina.
- They scored their next run on a homer by Cesar Izturis — yes, that Cesar Izturis.
- Then Albert Pujols homered, which is fine because, well, he’s Albert Pujols and that’s what he does.
- Then Todd Wellemeyer drove in a run — yes, that Todd — wait, who the heck is Todd Wellemeyer?
- The game ended.
I see the white flag. I’m not prepared to acknowledge it just yet, but I see it. My faith in the Padres despite all available evidence pointing me elsewhere has been contingent upon the team suddenly reversing course and not sucking. Well, I’m still waiting for them to hold up their end of the deal.
The reality is that very soon I’ll have to re-read some posts from 2002 or 2003 and figure out what we used to talk about back when the actual games weren’t worth discussing. Maybe I’ll break out some shadow puppets. I do a mean dove…
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In other news, Jake Peavy has been placed on the 15-day disabled list with a troublesome right elbow. An MRI on Monday revealed no ligament damage, which is good news. As I said in yesterday’s IGD, any on-field outcome against the Cardinals on Monday was secondary to Peavy’s health.
There is no timetable for Peavy’s return, although Tom Krasovic speculates that the 2007 NL Cy Young Award winner could miss up to six weeks. As far as I’m concerned, with the way this season is going, Peavy should take his sweet time and make sure everything is okay before returning. There’s no call for misplaced heroism here.
Left-hander Joe Thatcher takes Peavy’s spot on the roster. Thatcher, who started the season in San Diego, was optioned to Triple-A Portland just nine days ago due to extreme lack of effectiveness. Great, he’ll fit right in here.
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I’ve got more thoughts on the Padres over at Viva El Birdos. Read ‘em if you’re so inclined…
Sorry I haven’t dropped in for a while, but ignoring all things Padres has been required for my sanity this year. I was in Chicago on business, went to one of the games and was roundly ridiculed by very knowledgeable fans.
B-r-u-t-a-l.
#50@Tom Waits: Burroughs had everything you look for in a young hitter. His failure to develop still baffles me.
#52@Geoff Young:I think it was a mix of immaturity and the Padres trying to change his swing so that he would hit for power.
#53@Steve C: The problem with that theory is that Burroughs’ numbers started to decline immediately after his first pro year, long before the Padres did anything to his swing. He never had a campaign that was close to his 1999 season.
If anything, they should have tinkered with his swing in 2000 or 2001, when concerns about his power surfaced.
#52@Geoff Young: count me as a paying passenger on that train!!
Dark horse trade possibility for Khalil: Kansas City. They’re only 2.5 out of the division, 4.5 out of the WC, their SS are so bad that even a struggling Greene is a massive improvement, and their front office made some win-soon moves last winter.
#40@Didi: We all knew that power was a fluke…when he was drafted we talked about his lack of power…Can he be a good 2 bagger/2 hitter? Yup. Does he show any real power potential to be a 3 hitter? Not really.
#54@Tom Waits: I was more looking at his pro #’s
2002 .271/.317/.323
2003 .286/.352/.402
2004 .298/.348/.365
2005 .250/.318/.299
Didn’t they start to mess with his swing after 2004?
#58@Steve C: They sent him down in 2002 to work on hitting for power. If they messed with his swing, it never showed up during the game, he still had that inside-out defensive stroke.
Any changes made to his approach in the bigs don’t explain why he declined, albeit not hugely, in the minors.
He’s been out of the system for a while now and still hasn’t hit for power even in the minors.
#59@Tom Waits: Bleh my bad I thought it was after 2994 because they got roberts to hit leadoff.
#57@Coronado Mike: I didn’t know that Antonelli’s power was a fluke. An isolated slugging of 185 is hard to sustain over a whole season. He’s still at 136 now.
He’s not going to be Jeff Kent, but it’s no stretch to see 15 HR, with 60 total XBH, in his major league future.
#56@Tom Waits: Would DeJesus and one of their crappy shortstops do the trick?
#62@Geoff Young: Just get me DeJesus, please! We could run someone crappy out there to SS the rest of the season ourselves.
#63@Pat: Yeah, I guess if the Giants can go with Brian Bocock, we could go with Sean Kazmar. Sigh…
#49@Mark Ase: I don’t think that writeup on him was particularly negative, it just pointed out, probably correctly, that Antonelli’s power surge last season might have been a fluke. I don’t think anyone expects him to hit 20 HR’s in the majors playing in Petco.
Baseball Prospectus used the PECOTA projection system to try to project the future value of prospects. It likes Antonelli alright, ranking him as the 3rd overall prospect behind Eric Patterson of the Cubs and Chris Coghlan of the Marlins. He’s also ranked 9th overall in all players 25 and younger (a Cuban, Alexi Ramirez is ranked ahead of him but he uses Cuban stats some I’m not counting him).
However, the same system hates Headley, ranking him way down near the bottom, behind such notables as David Freese, Rico Washington, Blake DeWitt and Joel Guzman. The author does note that the projection seems low, mainly because Headley was punished on last season stats since it was a hitter’s league, he’s not really young for his league, and his BABIP was unsustainably high.
#64@Geoff Young: If they did decide to trade Greene and could get a really good, young outfielder in return or even a young top-of-the-rotation starter, I’d say go for it and play Luis Rodriguez at SS once he’s healthy. A contact hitter like Rodriguez might even be a welcome addition considering how much this team strikes out.
#63@Pat: I’m not sold on DeJesus, especially not for Khalil. He hit .260 last season with 6 HR’s and 10 SB’s, playing nearly everyday (157 games). We already have a guy (Jody Gerut) that can probably put up much better numbers than that.
#61@Tom Waits: In his 3 seasons at Wake, his hr totals were 2, 5, 11…with metal bats.
That does not point to a guy who will hit for power…I would guess that 5-10 HR’s in MLB might be a better number…just guessing though.
#62@Geoff Young: In a heartbeat, if they’d give up DeJesus.
Then trade Bell to ATL for Lillibridge to play SS?
Wow. I thought the Padres might be an 83-win team this season, but I’m really scared we’re looking at 100 losses. It’s bad. As much as I think Towers has done a terrific job as a talent evaluator, two recent decisions really make me wonder. The first, most obvious one, is his notion that Edmonds would be good this year.
BP said it best, in its 2008 Prospectus, about Edmonds “This won’t end well” and it didn’t. To even the casual observer it was obvious he was done last year, and putting him in a huge ballpark and expecting him to produce offensively as a #4/5 hitter was just foolish.
The other really big miscue by Towers came last year, when he let Joakim Soria go away in the rule 5 draft in order to pick up Kevin Cameron. Cameron will never be a good or even remotely reliable pitcher; his control is just too awful.
Soria’s 2008 line, currently, in the tougher league and pitching high-leverage innings: 17 innings, 5 hits, 2 BB, 20 Ks, 1.04 ERA. (BP called this one, too, BTW, predicting Soria to be successful). Those numbers are insane. If we still had him around we would have a successor for Hoffman or an intriguing arm for the rotation. I know it’s hindsight, but considering SD kept Cameron on the active roster all year, without ever bothering to use him in any important situations, doesn’t it seem reasonable that they could have done the same with Soria?
Other than that, this just isn’t a well-constructed team. There’s little of value to trade -Giles might get a B-level prospect, same with Wolf, while the guys who would get good return (Gonzalez, Greene) are probably not going to go anywhere, simply because there’s no replacement for Greene and Gonzalez is a good player under contract for a few more years at a favorable price.
As a fan, I’m disappointed; I could take losing if I saw a light at the end of the tunnel. But this team could be bad for a long time; the starting center-fielder right now is batting 195 with a 298 OBP. Bard and Greene both look awful. Kouzmanoff is never going to be an even adequate 3B. Peavy’s hurt. Hairston is a disaster at the plate and in the field. It’s ugly. I wish I had something more than Chase Headley to wish upon, but I’m afraid that’s all I have.
Do the Padres do the risky, high-reward thing? That is, trade a few major pieces, suffer in the short-term, and come out ahead? Or do they make some middling moves like trading Iguchi for some B-level suspect and hoping that somehow it all works out. I’m guessing the latter, and I think the former is necessary.
#2@Phantom:
I’ve definitely watched less Padres this year. It’s just not an enjoyable experience. Why subject yourself to such pain and bad baseball? I’ve noticed I have more time to do other stuff, like watch the netflix movies that piled up with my wife.
#68@Coronado Mike: The Padres changed the load in his swing between 06 and 07. I agree that there were substantial questions, but “fluke” would be a ton of doubles that he legged out, not the consistent hard contact he made, with 20 balls leaving the yard. And his power this year has actually been good, looked at in isolation.
Where does DeJesus project in this lineup? Also would you rather get him or Gaithright?
LA Times story discussing the upcoming fire sale
http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-spw-shaikin21-2008may21,0,7759612.story
That saddest thing about this whole situation is that the Padres have almost no young players to fill the major league roster if Towers is able to trade away some of the veterans. As good as Towers has been (and don’t get me wrong, he might be the best GM at finding underappreciated or blocked talent and acquiring them) his near-total failure at drafting and developing young players has really cost the team the past 4 seasons. If he just drafted adequately the Padres might be on a 4 year playoff run (although it would have hard to make the playoffs in 2004) and also more then one measly playoff win. It’s too bad that the Padres best 4 year run of all-time (and maybe ever) was squandered by incompetence and cheapness by management.
Assuming the first quarter of ’08 does not represent a new, reduced level of ability for Greene, DeJesus is not nearly as valuable as Khalil.
Bell for any potential starting middle infielder would be a good deal, though, as I suspect Bell’s peak will have passed by the time we contend again.
Recording the Padre games and watching on fast forward really emphasizes how lethargic this team is. You see the opposition get a lead and then inning after inning of the Padres maybe getting a guy on base but then it’s just batter after batter making quick outs. It’s bad enough they’re losing but it just seems like there’s no fight in this team. Maybe it’s a case of selective memory but I seem to remember the pre-Petco bad teams were at least competitive. Bochy would try to be a manager, making pitching changes based on matchups, stealing bases, bunting guys over, etc. They still sucked but it was at least a little more interesting to watch.
The best explanation I heard for Burroughs was that he matured early and was always bigger and stronger than his peers, which is why he put up big numbers early but once everyone caught up to him physically he couldn’t count on that anymore.
Depo with a fun blog entry today …
http://itmightbedangerous.blogspot.com/2008/05/travel.html
… he’s out doing some scouting … who knew?
The only issue I have with tradding bell is that it leaves this team with meredith as its closer for 09 with no 8th or 7th inning guys unless Thatcher rembers how to pitch and hensley heals up…
Depo with a fun blog entry today …
http://tinyurl.com/67nuqs
… he’s out on the scouting trail … who knew?
#73@Loren: DeJesus, easily. I have little faith in Gathright.
#76@Lance Richardson: A starting CF with above-average offense who plays strong defense and under control until 2011 would seem to be as valuable as a starting SS with average offense who plays strong defense and is under control only through next season.
I gotta agree that DeJesus for KG straight up seems like we’re selling low on him. Does the extra defense in CF make up for the lack of defense and power we’d suffer for trading him?
I’m personally not convinced that 08 is indicative of his true talent level. Then again, he’s 1 year away from FA and may be difficult to sign long term.
Gathright seems the more intriguing player, but I don’t know if he’ll be able to hit at the MLB level.
#66@JMAR: Rodriguez doesn’t excite me at all.
#69@Tom Waits: Lillibridge is having a terrible season, but I still like him.
#70@David Coonce: Soria’s rapid ascent still amazes me. Most guys just don’t make the jump from Low-A ball to the big leagues at all, let alone seamlessly.
#73@Loren: DeJesus, unless car-jumping becomes a usable baseball skill.
#75@Schlom: This isn’t accurate on many levels. The system is in better shape than it has been in many years. Also, management deserves at least some credit for the Padres’ recent success.
#78@Steve C: Easier to find a closer than a starting SS, though.
Weird question but any of these spare parts we are thinking of trading, would any of them be of any interest to the Red Sox if our target was Coco Crisp?
We mentioned Khalil Greene, Julio Lugo is nothing special, Boston could use an upgrade perhaps?
they said the same thing about 2B and 3B a then they traded Barfield, not saying that it was a bad move just saying there has been little to no production out of 2B since then…
#84@Loren: Crisp would be a good addition if the Pads thought that they would be ready to compete again next year but if they go the fire sale route it will prob be 2 or 3 years until they will be ready to compete for the division title again…
#81@Phantom: It depends on who you get to replace Khalil. Both are about average hitters with good defense. They just hit differently.
#82@Geoff Young: Ah, my eyes! But seriously, in response to #70, the problem was who the Padres decided to protect INSTEAD of Soria, even though they knew other teams had scouted him in Mexico.
#86 @steve
Unless Venerable/Huffman are our answer at CF we will need SOMEONE to man that area until Hunter comes up. Coco at least provides incredible defense and speed for a few years until we can get a better determination on Hunter/someone else
#88@Loren: I agree but why burn Greene on him? when he’s not going to be on the team when it turns itself arround, I would rather use greenie as a chip to get a young player who the padres will have control over for multiple years.
#85@Steve C: It might not take Bell to get Lillibridge, anyway. I’d prefer that it be Maddux or Wolf going to ATL. But just because we haven’t found a 2b doesn’t mean that it’s not a deeper position overall, or make a 1 inning, bases empty pitcher harder to find than a 150 game competent shortstop.
#90@Tom Waits: I agree with you I just hate to open one hole to fix another…
#91@Steve C: Yeah, it would help if we were deeper in the high minors.
#82@Geoff Young: Of course the system is in better shape than it has been as they had no where to go but up. I agree that management did a great job putting the 2004-2007 teams together but if they just didn’t waste draft pick after draft pick they obviously would have been a lot better. Obviously the 2004 debacle cost them millions of dollars in lost revenues, we all know that. But the 1st round picks in 2003 and 2005 weren’t any better. There were plenty of good players picked after the Padres chose their players, any number of them could have helped the Padres win one more game last season or maybe a playoff series in the past four seasons. That doesn’t even get into all the rest of the wasted draft years. Just because Towers makes awesome trades doesn’t absolve him from any blame in other areas.
I think the building of the Padres team in the few seasons was one of the great accomplishments of any GM in recent history — you just don’t find winning teams with low payrolls that aren’t built primarily from within. It just amazes me that Towers was able to put together a winner with a low payroll with 2 home-grown young players. It’s easy to have a good low payroll team when it’s filled with your own players, it’s an entirely different thing when it’s all older players.
#92@Tom Waits: Yeah I think they are atleast two years out before they are at that point…
#87@Tom Waits: No, that’s true about Soria. The Padres clearly misread him.
#88@Loren: If the price is right for Crisp, I’d make a move. But he’s purely a stopgap measure, so I wouldn’t want to give up much — maybe Wolf, who isn’t necessarily well suited for Fenway. I honestly don’t see a real good fit with Boston in terms of trade possibilities.
#93@Schlom:
Right, but this isn’t quite the same as “…squandered by incompetence and cheapness by management.” A guy who “makes awesome trades” generally isn’t incompetent.
#66@JMAR: If you look at his career, he’s basically a league average hitter, much like Khalil is (using OPS+, they’re certainly not the same type of hitter). He would bring some speed, I believe, and plays a good CF from what I’ve heard. They’re basically the same age and price, which is a wash. I don’t think we would lose on that deal. I certainly don’t expect any sort of significant growth from Khalil after having watched him these past 5 years and DeJesus seems to be quite consistent as well.
But I guess it’s a question of perceived need. I feel OF defense is a priority in Petco, moreso than at SS, and we are sorely lacking there at the moment. We do not appear to have any CF prospects who are ready to go for next year. Of course we don’t have any prospects for SS either. Which position would be easier to fill via FA next off-season? Not sure on because I can’t get to MLB4U at work to see what the market is like.
#96@Geoff Young: Maybe he just got really really lucky a bunch of times
#73@Loren: DeJesus is a much better offensive player, imo. Gathright is a better base stealer, but I’m more concerned with their D than stealing bases. I’s guess Gathright would have to be the second coming of Willie Mays to make up the offensive gap DeJesus has on him though.