With hopes for 2008 all but gone, I’ve turned my focus to reshaping the Padres so that they can return to the competitive levels we’ve grown accustomed to since the club moved to Petco Park in 2004. I attacked the problem as follows:
- Take inventory of organizational strengths and weaknesses
- Identify potential trade partners based on their needs
- Seek scenarios based on the above two parameters that might benefit both parties
We’ll take inventory today, and then turn to potential partners and trades on Friday.
Strengths
The Padres are deep at catcher, particularly in the high minors. Nick Hundley is a potential future regular, while Colt Morton and Jose Lobaton could be big-league reserves. Further down, Mitch Canham shows promise. At the top, Josh Bard and Michael Barrett are established big leaguers. Bard was having an off year even before he sprained his left ankle in Wednesday night’s contest, while Barrett has missed much of the season with a sprained right elbow; because of this, neither is likely to fetch much in a trade.
First base is one of the organization’s brightest spots. With Adrian Gonzalez firmly entrenched in San Diego and Kyle Blanks waiting in the wings, Tony Clark and Brian Myrow are expendable. Both could have marginal value to a contender looking for an extra bat off the bench, but don’t expect much in the way of return.
Second base is in pretty good shape, Matt Antonelli’s early struggles at Triple-A notwithstanding. At the big-league level, Tadahito Iguchi provides reliable defense and hits enough to be useful. There should be a market for him. Antonelli may not be ready for prime time if Iguchi is moved, in which case someone like Craig Stansberry or Edgar Gonzalez could probably keep the position warm until needed. Iguchi is a free agent after the season, and I’ve heard (but been unable to verify) that he won’t net his former team any compensatory draft picks should he sign elsewhere in 2009. If true, this increases the incentive to trade him but also may reduce his value to potential trade partners.
At third base, the Padres have two legitimate big-league caliber players. Incumbent Kevin Kouzmanoff is coming off a fine rookie campaign, while prospect Chase Headley has little left to prove in the minors. Kouzmanoff’s value may be down right now because of his slow start in ’08; however, this may also be offset by the fact that his contract (1 year, $410,000) is very desirable. Headley has spent most of the early season in left field, though he has seen some action at the hot corner and there shouldn’t be much, if any, difficulty switching back full time if needed.
Weaknesses
Shortstop is extremely thin. If the Padres move Khalil Greene, they need to acquire someone to replace him. The best available internal options are Sean Kazmar and Luis Rodriguez, which is to say, there are none. As has been discussed ad nauseum in these parts, Greene has holes in his game (and he’s stumbled out of the gate in ’08), but he could be a nice chip to play assuming the Padres can find a replacement, which seems doubtful given the paucity of quality players at the position.
The outfield is a mess. The only big leaguer likely to have much trade value is Brian Giles. He has a limited no-trade clause that allows him to block deals to eight teams. He also has an escalator that kicks his price tag to a minimum of $14 million ($11 million this year plus a $3 million buyout for ’09) if he is traded. The Padres almost certainly will have to eat some of that. Jody Gerut, Scott Hairston, Paul McAnulty, and Justin Huber all have shown potential at various points during their career, but none is performing well enough to be anything more than a throw-in. The Padres probably are better off hanging on to these guys for now and hoping they develop, because nobody else is likely to pay anything of consequence to acquire them.
On the farm, Chad Huffman and Will Venable are closest to being ready, but neither projects as an impact player. Further down, Cedric Hunter, Brad Chalk, and Yefri Carvajal are intriguing but far away.
The pitching staff, lauded by some as a strength during spring training, has been exposed for what it is: a few elite talents surrounded by low-ceiling command specialists. Jake Peavy is one of the best pitchers on the planet when healthy, Chris Young (who had his nose broken by an Albert Pujols line drive on Wednesday) is a solid #2 or #3 type pitcher with a good contract, and Heath Bell is one of the better setup men in baseball. Peavy isn’t going anywhere, but Young or Bell could be moved in the right deal. More likely, veterans like Randy Wolf and Greg Maddux will be shopped — maybe Shawn Estes if some GM just woke up from an 11-year coma, maybe Cla Meredith.
Of these guys, Wolf may not fetch much because of his injury history; ditto Maddux because of his age (last time he got traded, it was for Cesar Izturis). Bell and Meredith both have palatable contracts and could be part of the next contending Padres squad (depending on what you believe the time frame for that will be); at the same time, with precious few exceptions, I don’t consider relievers to be a core component of any team — bullpens, maybe; individual relievers, not so much.
At the minor-league level, Josh Geer, Cesar Ramos, and Wade LeBlanc are closest to being ready. Geer and Ramos are puff-ballers, and LeBlanc has been terrible at Triple-A Portland. Further down, Will Inman looks good at Double-A, as do Drew Miller at High-A and Mat Latos at Low-A. Inman, Miller, and Latos shouldn’t move unless something ridiculous falls into the front office’s lap (like the Matt LaPorta fantasy that some folks are indulging).
Bottom Line
Based on this inventory, the Padres’ best trade chips are, in descending order, Young, Greene, Bell, Kouzmanoff, Meredith, Iguchi, Giles, Maddux, and Wolf. I wouldn’t be eager to unload any of those first five, although Headley’s presence is a mitigating factor in the case of Kouzmanoff.
As for what the club needs, most pressing is help at shortstop, center field, and pitcher. Shortstop in particular is a gaping black hole once you get past Greene. The best of the lot, Andrew Cumberland, is at least 3 years away and is no lock to remain at the position (he’s already seeing some time at second base in the Midwest League).
Tomorrow we’ll look at trade targets…
Nice writeup, Geoff, but I think you’re looking at this the wrong way.
When you’re good and want to improve, you can look at positional holes.
When you are blowing up a team — and I think that’s what most people feel is right to do given the Dbacks, Dodgers, etc. — I’m not sure position by position shows the complete picture.
Personally, my analysis would look more like this:
1. Organizational weakness: topline talent across the board. There is a need to consolidate some of the widespread, less risky talent we have into someone who may become a well above average performer.
2. Opportunity: anyone who will not be an asset when we compete next (2 years minimum) should be gone, for younger, riskier players.
3. Any money freed up should be applied to a riskier draft process.
I agree we need to deal some players — and some of them will be good — but just as importantly is to try to get back some younger talent that just may be riskier.
Last night’s affiar was quite painful.
I pretty much agree with your assessment about value and who to unload. I really wish the Padres had an organizational replacement for Khalil, as it severely hinders us in trading him. Not that I’m a huge fan of us unloading my favorite player, but I realize that he’s probably one of, if not the most, valuable pieces the team has. The fact that he was reluctant to sign a longer than 2-year deal might also indicate that we’ll need a replacement for him sooner, rather than later, anyway.
Hmm, I messed that up. Let me make it clearer.
1. Organizational Strength: finding underappreciated average players in free agency/trades.
2. Organizational weakness: Acquiring potential superstars through the draft or in most other ways.
We can fill in gaps later. Let’s just go get some high end talent to go with Jake, Adrian, Anotnelli and Headley, even if it means taking on significant risk.
#3@Alan: Interesting. I have a feeling you will not like my specific recommendations.
A more “aggressive” draft strategy would be nice…
Alan, I agree completely. If they could somehow find another hitter to pair with Adrian in the middle of the lineup…combined with what looks like a .380OBP from Headley and .360OBP from Antonelli at the top of the lineup…..things offensively might not be so bad.
Mark
#4@Geoff Young: I think at this point, EVERYBODY is hoping for a more agressive draft strategy.
GY, do you have any connections in the FO that you can talk to about this?
I agree that anyone with value that does not have a contract for 2010 should be traded. If Greene has value, trade him. The way he is batting right now, shortstop is the biggest hole on the team anyway. Besides, is he really any better than Orlando Cabrera as a free agent?
I disagree with your opinion on Huffman. Last year injuries slowed him down in San Antonio, but he is healthy and has been the best player so far in the organization this year.
In many ways, especially as an outfielder, I think he’s a better prospect than Headley. Keep in my mind you should see his power numbers take off once he is promoted to AAA.
Agree on the draft policy. The Padres sort of have a type of “flood the zone” theory – in that its better to bet on more medium-high prospects, than one high level one. Consequently you end up paying a million dollars to pitchers like Cesar Ramos – who projects as a fourth or fifth starter at best.
Interesting write-up Geoff. Sounds like a fire sale. Of which I’m not totally opposed to. However, the FO is also going to be looking at ticket/merchandise sales in this regard. Some untouchables, from top to bottom (IMO), Hoffman, A. Gonzales, Greene, Maddux. That’s from the business side of drawing crowds to the ballpark.
From the game point of view: However, I think Greene, Maddux, and Bard could go as a package. Even though Bard is injured, it doesn’t sound like it would impair his trade value, at this point. Luke Carlin, young as he is, is looking very promising and would be a good student to a mentor like Barrett.
The outfield, with the exception of OG, is A League ball at best. Hairston hits once in a while,
but he’s not consistant. Still, better than Edmonds.
#6@Phantom: No, I don’t. The best I can do is voice my concerns as a fan.
#8@John Conniff: Yeah, I’m less excited about Huffman than pretty much anyone I know. My main issue with him is that because of his defensive limitations, he pretty much has to keep mashing… which to his credit, he is doing. I hope he continues to prove me wrong, because that would help a great deal.
#3@Alan:
#4@Geoff Young:
There’s not necessarily a conflict there. It’s unlikely that we’ll be getting any risky, high-end talent for the players we’ll trade this year, anyway. Not impossible; we did trade Ceda for Todd Walker, and the Red Sox did trade Tankersley for Ed Sprague. But it seems more likely that we’ll be getting Andrew Brown-type relievers and Matt Murton-type position players.
Then, to borrow a term from Alan, you consolidate some of those prospects into higher-shelf players in later trades, and you sure as heck don’t draft another bunch of gritty, overachieving college players. Unfortunately our biggest opportunity to grab impact amateur talent was LAST year.
I think if the FO had properly valued Fukudome and Milton Bradley and offered them enough money to sign we wouldn’t be having these discussions now about breaking up the team.
In other words the Padres are a good defensive CF and a good hitting LF away from competing again. And it looks like Headley might be that LF.
I see no need to completely shatter this team. Though I sense KT feels differently.
#8@John Conniff: Agree with you on Huffman. Last year BP’s PECOTA system had him as the 45th prospect in baseball (Hunter was 31, Kouz 11, Headley / Antonelli nowhere to be found). The list was generated in April, I believe.
re 14: Even if you get those things in 2008-what good does it do you?
What’s the fascination with winning 75 games?
You realize Peavy is on the DL, with CY probably headed there as well right?
This team, even if it had Fukudome and Bradley wouldn’t play .600 baseball the rest of the way with Peavy/CY missing time.
#14@Ryan: I don’t think we’d have managed to outbid the Cubs with FDome, and Bradley is basically a DH. But we’ve been outscored by 74 runs. 2 players don’t fix that.
I can see where you’re coming from, but really, the last 3 years the Padres have been 2-3 elite players, a couple of good ones, and then a lot of average (or less) dudes. That’s not hard to repeat within budget, and hope to get lucky while simultaneously trying to add enough talent to give ourselves a much better chance to compete with Arizona and LA.
#15@Tom Waits: Which brings up a question – if you like both Huffman and Headley, you pretty much have to put Huffman in LF and Headley at 3b. I don’t see either of them being able to play RF. Although I do see Huffman as being a better OF than he is given credit for.
Trading Kouz might get you a decent CF for the interim while allowing the team to promote quality prospects. Headley and Huffman fit the mold of what SD needs in the lineup, players with high OBP’s who can hit the gap. The big argument for keeping Kouz in my opinion is that he will hit for more power than either, which right now I don’t see.
I’ve always been a big fan of Hunter in CF, but he’s two years away.
In re: Khalil, if we do trade him are any of these options plausible?
1. Having Stansberry/Rodriquez come up to play for the duration of the season (seems logical)
2. Switching Antonelli to SS – he’s making errors all over the place at 2B
3. Acquiring a free agent shortstop a’la Rafael Furcal or Mark Loretta while drafting a quick moving SS in the draft
Also hey Geoff, can I get a definition of a ‘puff baller’?
#8@John Conniff: #12@Geoff Young: I wonder if Huffman will be as highly touted going into next season as Headley was after ’07 if he continues to mash in AA. Huffman is pretty much on the same pace as Headley’s AA season (.330-20-75), with a few less homers and better strikeout-to-walk numbers. If he finished with a .320-18-75 season, I would think he’d be regarded as the LF of the near future. The only difference is that Headley is a switch-hitter who plays 3B, which would make him much more valuable. I hope he keeps it up, though. They definitely need as many players as possible to step up and prove to be legitimate prospects.
The interesting thing about Arizona and Tampa is everyone is raving about how intelligent they are in building from within. That is true to some extent, but what is also true is they took the best player available to them in the draft consistently, regardless of who represented them or signability issues.
Players such as BJ and Justin Upton, Stephen Drew, Evan Longoria are not mysteries to anyone that logs onto Baseball America. The reason some teams didn’t draft them or shyed away was money.
As we were discussing last week, its just smart business. The Padres could have signed Porcello for the amount it costs to cut Edmunds (really its even less because Porcello got $7.3 million over four years – which was a record). I’m fine not signing the big MLB FA’s, but not spending in the draft just doesn’t make sense.
The Padres need too, at a minimum in the first three rounds at least, adopt this type of philosophy.
For example, in 2006 the team drafted shortstop Grant Green and declined to give him first round money, so he went to USC. Green is now one of the top college SS and will probably go in the first round in 2009. If SD had signed him he would probably be in LE right now and could have given the Padres another option at SS when Khalil Greene’s contract runs out.
#20@JMAR: When Headley is promoted, Huffman should move into LF for the Beavers. Essentially the Padres will have three guys to play two postions with, as all of us have noted, quite a few pressing needs elsewhere.
I think Kouz is the odd man out.
#19@Loren:
1. More likely it would be Rodriguez; he can’t hit, but at least he’s a legit shortstop.
2. If a guy is defensively challenged at second base (and I’m not saying Antonelli is), he probably isn’t going to be any better at short.
3. Furcal is going to hit the jackpot. If the Tigers pick up Edgar Renteria’s option (at $11M, they should), the next best free agents will be guys like Orlando Cabrera and Adam Everett. I’m not sure I see us as serious players for Furcal. As for drafting a quick-moving shortstop, that’s a very difficult thing to do.
Puff-baller? A finesse pitcher.
#22
What about Huffman in RF? Does he have the gun and the movement to do that? And boy would that be a nice problem to have. BUt I still don’t want to move Kouz unless we get a very very nice offer for him.
#23
In regards to Antonelli, I understand he’s in his second full year at a third level playing second base but he must be at the top of the league in errors and it seems like every single recap you put up has that little “E” next to his name. His hitting difficulties I can understand better then this.
#24@Loren: His fielding isn’t that bad – they do like the progress he’s made and he’s very athletic. Also factor in he plays on turf and some of the infields he plays on aren’t the greatest. My biggest concern with him is he may be a little too selective at the plate.
Huffman does have a good arm, but he needs more help on his defense than Headley and LF is probably the only realistic position for him in the big leagues.
#22@John Conniff: Please say it ain’t so (I know that it is)…I like him. I still think he has 30+ hr power and given another 2 years he could be a very solid power hitter.
#21@John Conniff: Add Christian Colon to that list, another SS who we drafted, wouldn’t pay, and who is having a very solid freshman season for CS Fulleton. That doesn’t even get into the kids they could have picked but passed on in the supplemental rounds the last two years.
#22@John Conniff: Agree that Kouz would be the one to move, but I don’t see many teams in need of him.
#23@Geoff Young: Rodriguez went on the DL in late April with a broken hook of hamate; haven’t heard anything about when he’d return.
Hmm… trading our few good players for (presumably) good younger players, coupled with a more agressive draft strategy. Has Towers ever done anything like that? I think we’re more likely to see trades for pending free agents (to net more draft picks) and more of the same draft strategy. As TW says in 13, Matt Murton types to hold down the fort until the kids are ready. Maybe we’ll get an Adam Dunn to get the fans excited about home runs. I’m just extremely pessimistic that we have anything of value to other teams.
#24@Loren: I wasn’t clear. The point is that if Antonelli moves because of defensive deficiencies, it will be to a less demanding position.
I also agree with John that his defense isn’t enough of a concern to seriously consider moving him right now.
#27@Tom Waits: That’s right, thanks. I knew there was a reason I had Sean Kazmar listed as top shortstop in the org behind Khalil.
#28
I think, if we do trade Kouz, then picking up Adam Dunn would be a great idea. He’d be finally that big bat that scares everyone in the middle of the lineup, and flank him with Gonzo and Headley and Antonelli (i think) in the #2 spot, you’ve got a nice little lineup with some pop.
#28@Anthony: We already have some impending free agents, though. And what they’ve done when they’ve had a lot of draft picks isn’t encouraging. Those players are a year away from even being selected, let alone in the system.
#29@Geoff Young: A lot of the worries with Antonelli involve his footwork around the bag, and he has had some experience at short (a while ago) and as a terrific third baseman. But it’s a long, long shot. If (no, when, when, gotta keep it positive) his bat comes around, I could see him moving to the OF. Maybe even RF, where his power would be short but he could be a Brian Giles mod 2008 player.
#28@Anthony: I would hope Towers is smart enough to read the writing on the wall and notice that what he’s done so far hasn’t worked. In the last ten years the Padres have won one playoff game. They cobbled together a competitive team with a lot of holes in the last few years, but not one that could actually compete in the playoffs.
I don’t want to root for a team that is satisfied with eking out a playoff spot in a bad division. I want a team like the 2008 Marlins, or the 2007 Rockies, or the 2006 Twins, or etc., etc., etc. I want a competitive team with good young players, not an assemblage of hand-me-downs with little upside. It’s just not very much fun to root for a team composed of AAAA guys and broken-down vets.
I agree with Alan’s suggestion of higher-risk moves in the draft, but I’m afraid that Moores handcuffs the team too much because he’s a Selig loyalist.
Why did discussions with Mike Cameron and his agent break down? I really do not believe what was written in the Union-Tribune, mostly front-office smoke?
What do you guys think of Jack Cust now? Would he have helped the Padres considering how bad the left fielders have been in 2007 and 2008? Our brilliant talent evaluators gave Cust away.
I really appreciate Geoff and most of those who post. No longer living in San Diego and hearing and feeling the local buzz, this is a great source of connection for me. Padres games are carried by Cox here in Las Vegas, so I can suffer along with San Diegans. Hang in there gentlemen, this too shall pass.
I have been an avid baseball fan since 1952, so I have witnessed the decline and fall of my favorite teams and players, over and over. Baseball is still the greatest game and the Padres will always be my favorite team since I am not moving back to New York. I loved the Brooklyn Dodgers and then the Mets, and there were some strange seasons with which to contend, as a fan. So our 2008 Padres are simply deja vu all over again.
ballparkfrank in vegas
#31@Loren: Dunn’s a free agent after this season — I don’t see the Padres spending big money for a player like him — looks like a beached whale playing LF, typical old player skills which might mean that he declines very quickly. Also, unless the Padres way overbid any other team, he’s not coming here unless he gets a very long contract which doesn’t make any sense.
I don’t see Antonelli moving off 2B nor do I see any trading partner for Kouz.
Agree with TW and John Conniff about the draft policy. The Padres should really consider disregarding the slotting suggestion as this is handcuffing the organization highly since other teams are not strictly following that advise.
I’m guessing that OG and Greene are staying put into 2009.
34: Cust wasn’t going to play here. He was with the A’s prior to joining the Padres and they didn’t see a spot for him either until injuries hit them hard. Plus, his presence in the lineup currently wouldn’t have fix the current state of the team.
33: 2007 Rockies? Really? They were a sub .500 team before going off in the last month. No team can sustain its success like the Rockies last year. Had the Padres won one more games started by any of the #5 pitcher, there wouldn’t be game #163. Look at them this year.
BTW, anybody else notice that the Snakes are 20-5 in the division with a record of 28-18? The Dodgers at least have winning record within NL.
#26@Coronado Mike: He could be, and you could move either Headley or Huffman. IMO, right now if you are going to play 81 games at PETCO – OBP skills are the most valuable, which is why I go the Headley/Huffman route.
35; frankly then, if we can’t find a real power hitter in free agency then I see no reason to trade one of our power threats (Kouz) unless we got something big in return. I don’t think Headley’s the best fit in LF but combining his power + Kouz + Gonzo + Greene (assuming he’s around) makes for a lineup that can whack the ball pretty good
#33@UC Michael: It’s not just that they refuse to go over slot, it’s also that they’ve had such a horrible record at drafting and developing their own players. Obviously, in hindsight (although it was obvious at the time) taking Nick Schmidt over Rick Porcello was a horrible move. Not just because it was a mistake to pass on Porcello but also because they took a pitcher who threw just a few innings before coming down with an injury.
Taking picks on the cheap sometimes works out — the Braves in 1990 refused to take Todd Van Poppel over his bonus demands and instead took the safer pick in Chipper Jones. Choosing a Hall of Famer over a bust is always a good idea. Same thing with the Marlins in 2000 as they signed Adrian Gonzalez to a contract before drafting him. Only Chase Utley (picked 15th, after the Padres chose Mark Phillips 9th) was a better 1st round pick.
It’s not just the Padres cheapness that’s the problem (although letting picks walk over as little as $100k doesn’t really make sense, why draft them if you aren’t going to sign them) it’s the fact that they have consistently drafted the wrong players or failed to develop them. If your scouts always identify the wrong players, maybe you should hire better scouts. Same thing with the coaches in the minor league system. Since the Padres seem to have no faith in their minor league coaches, they seem to prefer to draft highly polished, near maxed out potential college players. Wouldn’t it make more sense to hire better coaches and then draft players with higher ceilings?
The Marlins could be a good spot for Kouz – need a 3b. Although they don’t have any CF prospects they would probably part with, they do have quite a bit of pitching.
42: So, we can forget Maybin? J/K. Like I mentioned, I don’t see any fit for Kouz and what we need in the trade market.
#43@Didi: Maybin isn’t having the best of years either – but if the Padres could get a starting pitcher for Kouz, let Headley take over for the rest of the year at 3b and pencil in Huffman as the starting LF in ’09 – I would look at it.
#38@Didi: I noticed that, but I wasnt sure if it was because they were hot in April and happened to play a lot of division teams. They were 20-8 in April, and are 8-10 in May. The Cubs and Mets both played well against them this month.
I’m guessing Kouz stays – Headley has been passable in left and having both bats in the lineup would be a plus. I think a deal would have to be overwhelming to move him – like a pitcher AND a CF.
That being said, I am feeling a lot better about next year and 2010 over the last few weeks – why, you ask? Because our top prospects (for the most part) have been raking. If Hunter ends the year strong at AA, Headley steps into LF, Venable performs with the big club and Huffman finished up strong at AAA, we’ve got some good depth going into next year. Yes, a lot of ifs, but right now those four guys all seem to be coming through. Truthfully, I’m more worried about the pitching staff than anything else – we are going to have to sign some free agents because we just don’t seem to have the depth. Inman seems to be the only guy who is close and is performing – you can probably pencil him into the rotation by late next year.
On top of those guys, Blanks could provide a good trading chip in the next year or so – who doesn’t want a 7’6″ first baseman who weighs 365 pounds?
#42@John Conniff: Unless they think they can move Hanley over to 3b?
I still think Pitt, Mil, Fl, and Houston might be destinations for him…
#36@Didi: Yeah, the 2007 Rockies. They have good young players in LF, RF, at 3B, SS, and C. They have a number of good young pitchers. Francis is no Peavy but otherwise I’ll take their rotation depth over the Padres. They have decent bench depth across the board. They’ve struggled this year, but it’s hard to believe that they’re not just a few pieces away from being a very good team, and the kind that’s fun to root for: young, athletic, and talented.
Schlom, I don’t understand how the Padres could have foreseen that Schmidt would get hurt. I guess they forgot to bring their crystal ball to the draft that year. I agree with you that the team has a bad track record as far as picks are concerned, but I do agree with the consensus that things have been better in the last few years, and am cautiously optimistic in that department. But I don’t like the way Towers put together his 2008 MLB roster.
#47@Coronado Mike: I don’t know about Milwaukee, but I agree with the other three.
#46@BigWorm: Kouz has an OPS of .680 right now, so getting something “overwhelming” isn’t really going to happen.
If you keep Kouz, then its an either/or with Huffman and Headley. Hunter will stay in LE for the whole year, the Padres tend not to move HS guys up more than one level a year. Also as much as I like Hunter it is a big jump from A to AA and there are still some questions about his defense and power.
Inman is doing well but then again that park is like PETCO – Geer, LeBlanc and Ramos all had solid years in San Antonio and are struggling now in the PCL.
I’m really not sure how much value Blanks has. If you are limited to first base its hard to get a shot.