IGD: Padres vs Reds (23 May 08)

Padres (18-31) vs Reds (21-27)
Shawn Estes vs Edinson Volquez
7:05 p.m. PT
Channel 4SD
AM 1090, FM 105.7, XM 183

I still don’t have a photo of Estes, but I do have one of Volquez, whom I saw pitch against the Portland Beavers last summer in Oklahoma City on my way to Cooperstown. If I’d known he’d be leading the National League in ERA right now, I probably would have mentioned this fact at the time…

Edinson Volquez

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153 Responses »

  1. You act like we’re going to lose!

    Khalil will walk on a slider down and away, Hariston won’t GIDP and Carlin will cap the night with a walk-off HR.

  2. #99@Kevin: I know dude, it’s cool to have these discussions. I’m not picking on anyone… okay, I AM picking on y’all.. but it’s all in fun.

    I think my point is.. how many times does he need to fail, before we stop putting him in these high-leverage situations.

  3. #101@Sean Callahan: And I win the lottery tomorow night.

  4. #101@Sean Callahan: Very funny.

  5. #99@Kevin: I don’t object to a “Trevor is done” cry if it’s clarified … done are the days when he’ll be successful >90% of the time … in fact, imo, done are the days when he’ll be successful > 80% of the time. He’s still the Padres best option for the “closer” role (and that’s a problem, just nowhere near their biggest problem) … I’m with you that I wouldn’t have used in him a tie game … he’s not our best pitcher for that role/spot tonight.

  6. #102@Richard D.: Well who else are they going to put in there? Unless you wanted Bell to throw 2 innings someone would need to pitch in either the 8th or 9th. Isn’t Trevor the 2nd best option at the moment?

  7. #106@Schlom: I would have prefered to see Bell pitch in two innings.

  8. #102@Richard D.: Pitching him in a tie game was a mistake.

  9. Wow, Gonzalez didn’t see one pitch in the strike zone during his entire at bat and yet struck out looking.

  10. #108@Kevin: And Trevor himself has said so!

  11. #108@Kevin: Well, in that case if the game went into the 10th inning still tied you must think that either Mike Adams, Josh Banks, Sean Henn, Cla Meredith or Jared Wells is a better option then Trevor. Who would you put in for that inning or do you think that Bell should have just kept pitching until either they win or lose?

  12. #106@Schlom: Hoffman should be the choice there. But for whatever reason, even in his very good or great seasons, he doesn’t pitch well in tie games. He is a save situation guy.

    You use Bell for two innings or use Meredith. The bullpen isn’t great, but it’s there. There are seven relievers, none of them are Thatcher, so use them.

  13. #109@Richard Wade: I’ve ump’d a few little league games this year … first time ever behind the plate … and one thing I’ve learned is that the zone in which a pitched ball can be hit is larger than the strike zone … so batters, especially with 2 strikes on them, need to swing the bat … I know it’s a fine line … that doing so consistently give the pitchers an advantage … but when the game is on the line, you can’t let the ump decide the fate of the game … he might make a call you disagree with …

  14. #105@LynchMob: Well, a closer who is successful less than 80 percent of the time is a poor closer.

    But Hoffman has nine saves in 11 chances. That’s 82.8 percent. But I bet he finishes the year in the high 80s.

  15. #84@LynchMob: Lots o’ free baseball at The Diamond tonight … they are headed to the 13th … still tied 3-3 …

  16. #114@Kevin: He only has 2 blown saves, but he also now has 2 loses … so that 9/13 = 69.2% by the way I see/define success … ymmv …

  17. #103@Turbine Dude: #104@Richard D.: Bud messed up my plan anyway – Carlin was supposed to get his shot at being the hero…

    Since I’ve given up on the season, I get to be delusional all I want and it won’t really matter…

  18. #116@LynchMob: That’s true. But he usually ends up with more losses than wins, mostly because he shouldn’t pitch in tie games.

    But I was using his career save percentage of .891 as a barometer. He has the career record as of a couple years ago. He may still have it.

  19. #112@Kevin: He actually is slightly worse in tie games but it’s not like he’s that bad, just not quite as good as in other situations:


    Basically, a 623 OPS against in tie games, vs. an OPS against ranging from 577 to 600 in other situations — except for in margins of >4 where he’s at 688.

    Either way unless the Padres scored in the 9th inning the Padres needed to put in another reliever. And he was by far the best option. The other relievers would either be making their major league debuts or shown that they couldn’t be trusted in a close game.

  20. #119@Schlom: The percentages are interesting. But I would rather just know how many times did he lose the game or preserve the game in a tie game. A raw success rate.

    We know his success rate in save situations: 89.1 percent.

  21. #118@Kevin: I think we’re pretty close to being on the same page … he was a STUD … he’s been very good pretty recently … he can be acceptable (if not better) if/when used judiciously (as he has been the last 3 weeks before tonight) … and there’s not anyone in the current pen I’d rather see (in those judicious situations) than him. I think the primary reason I project that he won’t be successfull >80% of time from here on out is that he won’t be limited to situations where he’s more likely to be successful (such as tonight) … it seems just too tempting to Bud to treat him as “the best pitcher in the pen” (without qualification, by which I mean that on some nights and in some circumstances I think he is the best pitcher in the pen, but there are going to be nights and situations where he’s not the best pithcer in the pen and I’d hope that Bud would find the best pitcher in the pen on those occasions).

    You know, that last statement makes it sound like I think I know more than Bud Black … and I know I do not know more than Bud Black … (and that goes for my comment in #68 also) …

  22. Here it is, on the same page you sent me:

    ERA in save situations: 2.62
    Non-save situations: 3.02

    That’s significant.

  23. #121@LynchMob: We do agree for the most part. I just think that it’s obvious how to manage Hoffman.

    We don’t know about these other guys.

    Mike Adams looked good last night. Let’s see what Josh Banks and Jared Wells can do. If the season is over, let’s have some tryouts.

  24. Mariano Rivera’s career save percentage is .884. So eat that, Rivera.

  25. #123@Kevin: Bingo!

    #124@Kevin: And I *really* want it stay true that Hoffy’s career save % > Rivera’s … I think he’s at risk for dropping that distinction … and that puts his HOF credentials at risk … not a lot of risk … but some risk … and it’s needless … it does seem obvious how to manage Hoffman … and there are options that need a look-see … and the rest of this season should be mostly about look-see … and letting Trevor limp to the finish line (relative to the rest of his AWESOME career) …

  26. I don’t see any difference in using Hoffman in the 9th, 10th, 11th, or 12th. They are all the same situation. Should they of posponed using Bell, and if so, doesn’t that raise the possibility of giving up the run earlier.
    When you place yourself in extended situations where a single event can beat you, like as not you are going to get beat.

  27. #122@Kevin: And what’s even more significant than the stats is that I’ve read quotes from him where he’s said he feels like he needs the pressure on the hitters that exists in a ‘save situation’ to make his changeup effective … he said that! Now *that* sure seems significant to me.

  28. #127@LynchMob: That’s interesting. I didn’t know he ever said that.

    I don’t think we have to worry about Hoffman’s Hall chances.

  29. #127@LynchMob: Peter Ciofrone is on fire ! The Beavers are on fire !

  30. #113@LynchMob: Both called strikes were in the other batter’s box and were horrible calls. And the ump called a ball that was in almost the same spot in between them. You can’t hold a batter responsible for striking out looking at a pitch a foot from the plate. That’s on the umpire.

  31. #124@Kevin: What’s Rivera’s career post season save percentage versus Hoffmans? :)
    I honestly think the difference between Rivera and Hoffman’s save percentage is Rivera being in a stronger league/division and facing DH. I don’t think Hoffman is on the save level as Rivera as a pitcher to be honest.

  32. #131@Zagz: The DH is probably a smaller issue for guys only pitching one to two innings at a time. Also, what’s more representative of a player: his career save percentage or his save percentage over a much smaller set of appearances? To argue that Hoffman wasn’t “on the same level” as Rivera is ridiculous.

  33. #131@Zagz: The difference between Hoffman and Rivera in the postseason is opportunities. The same difference exists between Tony Gwynn and Derek Jeter.

    Hoffman’s career K rate: 9.64, seven seasons of 10.00 or better.
    Rivera: 8.07, one season of 10.00.

    Rivera has a lower ERA: 2.32 to 2.76
    Rivera has a lower opponent OPS: .560 to .603

    If any two players in major league history on are the same level, it’s Hoffman and Rivera. I can see one taking Rivera or Hoffman as their preference. But they have had about the same career, right down to using basically just one pitch.

    Rivera’s advantages and the reasons he is more famous are: He plays for the Yankees. They make more postseason appearances. They receive more exposure than the Padres.

  34. Once again Harry did the team in. Why would he let Estes pitch in the 7th after Estes barely got by in 5 innings and lucky to get a sixth in a one run game?

    This is getting ridiculous. Harry is treating Estes like he treated Boomer last season. Those guys are done after 80 pitches or so. It’s not like we don’t have arms in the pen. Especially after the rain delay. Drats!!!

  35. #133@Kevin: I dont see them as being on the same level.

    Hoffman: 2.76 ERA, 4.02 LGE ERA, 145 ERA+
    Rivera: 2.31 ERA, 4.55 LGE ERA, 197 ERA+

    Being second to Rivera is not an insult. He is simply that good.

  36. #125@LynchMob: I dont think the Saves numbers or percentages play that big a role in HOF worthiness.
    The two previous holders of the All Time Saves title were Lee Smith and Jeff Reardon, who barely made a ripple in HOF voting. I think more and more, SAVES are looked at as a compiled stat which provide no clear indication of a players worthiness. Hoffman will have a difficult time getting in, I think. He will be on the same ballots as Randy Johnson, Glavine, Maddux, Smoltz, Clemens, Schilling etc.
    Shortly after that, Rivera and Pedro will become eligible. Hoffman might end up going in under the Veterans Committee.

  37. #137@parlo: The voters certainly don’t look at LGE ERA or ERA+.

    I often disagree with the voters, but from every informal poll out there, Hoffman is cearly a Hall of Famer by their count. Bruce Sutter was a bad inclusion by the writers. Hoffman has more support than him.

    As far as saves milestones, you’re half right. 300 saves doesn’t mean much to the voters or anyone else. But Bill James said in his most recent book that 500 will be the new automatic number for Hall of Fame induction.

    In the era of the one-inning closer, which started with Eckersley, Rivera and Hoffman are the only Hall of Fame-worthy candidates so far. (I never bought Eckersley’s induction.) Wagner still has quite a bit of work left.

  38. Another indication of just how bad the offense has been this year -Having achieved yet another good start last night – The Padres continue to lead the majors in quality starts and the so called dreaded 5th spot in the rotation has been solid 8 of 11 starts.

  39. #138@Kevin: I am not claiming that HOF voters look at that. I posted those numbers because I dont agree with your assessment that Rivera and Hoffman are on the same level. Please reread my post.

  40. #140@parlo: I read it the first time.

    It was beside your post about how saves and save percentages are not good indicators. But anyway …

    “Not on the same level” is pretty vague. Are you saying that Rivera is better? That’s acceptable. Are you saying they are not in the same class, that Rivera is much better? That’s just incorrect.

    They are both easily Hall of Famers. One-team pitchers (OK, Hoffman had a half-season with the Marlins). One-pitch pitchers. The only one-inning closers deserving of the Hall of Fame.

    Hoffman has clear statistical advantages over Rivera — K rate, K to BB ratio — just like Rivera has over Hoffman.

    If they are not on the same level, then no two players in baseball history are on the same level.

  41. #141@Kevin: By saying they are not on the same level, I think Rivera will be elected to the HOF in the first few years of eligibility. Hoffman will be a veterans selection. Not everyone in the HOF is on the same level. Don Sutton is not on the same level as Christy Matthewson. Other than the strikeouts and Saves totals, I dont see any other “clear statistical advantages” for Hoffman. Nolan Ryan had many more strikeouts than Tom Seaver, but I am not going to be convinced that Ryan was better. I would certainly weigh the ERA, ERA+ numbers more than K totals.
    You can do a lot of things with numbers. Without the proper perspective, Ron Guidry can look like Sandy Koufax. Harold Baines can look like Al Kaline, and Milt Pappas can seem comparable to Drysdale.
    Some things to keep in mind:
    Rivera did not become a closer until 1997. He was a spot starter and middle reliever before that. Hoffman had the fortune of playing in a pitchers park. Riveras ERA numbers (see above) cannot be ignored. Riveras post season numbers are amazing and cannot be ignored. Hoffman has given up 85 HRs to Riveras 49. (Thats not a big one, but if it were reversed, I am sure I would be hearing about it). Finally, there is no pitcher with 1000 IP that has an ERA+ as high as Rivera. It is not a tossup to me, Rivera is much better.