Padres (14-25) @ Cubs (23-15)
Shawn Estes vs Jon Lieber
5:05 p.m. PT
Channel 4SD
AM 1090, FM 105.7, XM 183
MLB, B-R
Sorry I couldn’t find a more recent photo of Estes…
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- geoff@ducksnorts.com
- 5663 Balboa Ave., #267
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115 Comments
GY, it’s his first start and you are already calling him toast?
I am glad I didnt post that picture. Imagine the repercussions!!
GY: good dialogue today!
I think we are all just frustrated in different ways.
#2@parlo: Are you experiencing a slow refresh rate in here?
There’s gonna be a lot of HRs tonight with that wind blowing out like it is.
This would be really funny if Estes were starting for the Cubs tonight.
#3 Turbine Dude: Yes, the whole site seems very slow. I thought it was my computer.
#6@parlo: That’s what I thought. But I’m on four other sites including my e-mail and everything else seems normal.
#6@parlo: It just sped up. Geoff must have tweeked something.
I hope this game doesn’t get called on rain.
#8 Turbine Dude: See if Geoff can tweak the offense too.
#10@parlo: Yeah, I call him in a few minutes. He never returns my calls. But I can try.
Shit, two more runs in.
#9@Turbine Dude: Right about now, a rainout looks like the best possible outcome.
Anyone still wondering why the picture of Estes looks like a piece of toast?
#13 Pat: Cmon Pat, we dont have a large enough sample size yet.
#13@Pat: Maybe Geoff’s subtle way of saying he doesn’t agree with bringing Estes back up. I don’t know, just speculating.
Bang.
Nice, for a tie game. I told you guys there are going to be some balls flying out of here tonight.
Vic Power stole home twice on Aug. 14, 1958 (answer to the Aflac question). Am I correct?
Estes keeping it alive…
Gerut doesn’t pull off the ball and serves it into left field nicely. This bodes well for his future in the big leagues…
I did some pretty shody research and didn’t pay attention to what came up on the Google search. DOH.
Shawn Estes might not be the worst possible pitcher the Padres could give a start to but he’s close:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/ERAplus_active.shtml
He’s ahead of Josh Fogg, Adam Eaton, Glendon Rusch and Scott Elarton. He’s probably better then Elarton, Rusch and maybe Fogg and I’d rather have him then Eaton because of Eaton’s contract. There might be 10 or 20 starters in the minors that are probably worse as well (the rest of the Portland staff for example!). That’s not a ringing endorsement however. Also, any team that pitches Shawn Estes in a meaningful situation (and a start qualifies as one) will not make the playoffs. It’s pretty much that simple. Starting Shawn Estes is something the Pirates would do, not the Padres.
Khalil getting it done with both the glove and bat tonight so far
#21@Schlom: I will hold you to this because the Padres plan is to get some quality starts out of Estes and then move him to a contender for a decent prospect. Estes is hitting 90 on the gun and throws left handed, I can think of a lot of teams in September that may want to employ him.
#21@Schlom: It sort of is something the Padres would do, since they are doing it.
#23@JP: I’ll take that bet. In a short stretch any player can look good, but Estes is a bad pitcher. We’ll be lucky to get a D prospect for him.
#23@JP: I guess it’s possible but I’m going to guess highly unlikely. Basically, he’s been good one time in his career and it was 11 years ago! He’s had some league average since (2000, 2001) but why would you expect him to get better 7 years removed from his last average season? I wouldn’t have so much of a problem if it was a younger guy – at least that makes sense to gamble on someone young or coming into his prime — but why Shawn Estes? I didn’t understand it when they signed him 2 years ago and I don’t understand it now.
Why in the world are the Cubs bunting here? Don’t they realize that it’s Shawn Estes on the mound?
Thank you Lou Piniella!
Seriously, you bunt with your #2 hitter with Shawn Estes on the mound in a game where the wind is blowing out? At least that keeps the Cubs from hitting a Grand Slam this inning…
If they call this game after 5 completed innings, do we win?
All right, time to call the game!
#28@Turbine Dude: Yes, but the chances of that happening are very slim.
#23@JP: Here’s the type of trade the Padres would like. The Cubs traded Scott Moore and Rocky Cherry for Steve Trachsel on August 31st last season. Moore is a somewhat intriguing prospect (8th pick in 2002, one pick after Prince Fielder and one before Jeff Francis). However, Trachsel is a hell of a lot better then Estes, not only career wise but recently as well. Of course, most thought this was a baffling move for the Cubs last season as well but I guess you only need to find one sucker.
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/M/Scott-Moore.shtml
#25@Tom Waits: You may owe me a steak dinner for the 150 PA’s bet on Russell Branyan.
Yes. I accept this bet as well. Estes is not a bad pitcher. I wouldn’t say he is good, but he is not bad.
The bet is : will a contending team pick up Estes and/or will the Padres give him 10 starts with an ERA under 4.5
#28@Turbine Dude: Actually, I think they would call the game only if there is no chance of a makeup date. Since there are two more games in this series I would assume they would just suspend it and finish it tomorrow or Thursday.
I want Carlin in the lineup every other day
#31@JP: You might would to look again if you don’t think Estes is a bad pitcher.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/e/estessh01.shtml
Sure, he’s better then you or me and a lot of pitchers currently in the minors but I’ll bet his trade value is only slightly higher then zero. Who would want him?
Why is Estes hitting?
#30@Schlom: Trachsel is just awful this year -based on what I have seen so far from Estes as far as velocity and stamina, I wouldn’t say that Trachsel is a “hell of a lot better”.
#34@Schlom: I don’t know. Who wanted Jeff Tabaka ?
http://www.baseball-reference.com/t/tabakje01.shtml
He (Estes) throws left handed doesn’t he ?
#32@Schlom: I should know this having lived there for so many years. But living in San Diego for 23 years, I forgot all the foul weather rules.
#33@JP: JP, I tend to agree with that. I like this kid.
I hope the extra 1/3 inning Estes was able to pitch (while allowing a baserunner) was worth sacrificing his out in the top of the inning.
Despite all the bashing, Estes is holding his own in a pure downpore.
Glad to see Black not wait as long as he did with Wolf.
#40@Ben B.: It was as Estes retired the lead off left handed batter with a weak grounder to second.
#31@JP: We must have different ideas of what “bad” means. He’s below-average for his career and for the last 6 years. In most of those seasons, substantially below average.
GY ran the numbers. There’s a handful of pitchers worse than Estes over the last half decade. How is that not bad?
#40@Ben B.: Yeah. Not like Clark or McAnulty would have made sense there.
Yet another quality start by Padres starters who lead the majors with 24.
#43@Tom Waits: Actually I just re-examined Estes numbers and they are indeed pretty bad. But hey its a new day and the guy still has decent stuff and again….he’s lefthanded. For what little it may be worth – Bob Brenly on WGN was commenting that Estes has more zip now on his fastball then before the surgery.
#44@JP: How so? Estes only threw 5 1/3, not 6.
#46@Tom Waits: I stand to be corrected. It is NOT a ‘quality’ start.
Good news ! Good news ! Cla Meredith now looks like the Cla Meredith of 2006. Cry it from the highest mountain top…..
That was a beautiful play by Claw and AGon on that bunt to start the last inning.
Cla Meredith is so cool. He’s thrown 12 pitches to get 5 ground ball outs.
Cla was outstanding tonight as he has been all of May. He’s only given up 2 runs (1 earned) in 12.2 innings since he gave up 4 runs in only 1 inning on April 16 vs. Colorado.
Cubs fans trying to grab a fair ball.
#26@Schlom: The more politically correct thing to say is what you#46@Tom Waits:Would you start Edgar Gonzalez again tomorrow or Thursday ?
#26@Schlom: Sorry –The more politically correct thing to say is exactly how you stated it re: Estes “highly improbability that Estes will perform well is unlikely” -Instead of saying, I am as guilty as anyone, he is bad or sucks or is toast” maybe we say “it’s unlikely that Estes will perform well” That’s how we do it on the more civilized West Coast not like they do it in Philly !
Does anyone else see Bell as being Trevor’s cemented replacement in the future?
Cubs announcers said that bell will probably close in the near future for the Pads…speculating that this may be Trevor’s final year…
If the bully holds, did you know this is Estes’ 100 win?
And is Bell only throwing “High-80’s” as the Cubs’ announcers claim?
The guy behind the plate is my favorite umpire. His strike three calls are awesome.
The Cubs’ announcers don’t have a very good scouting report on Heath Bell. They said his fastball sits in the upper 80s and isn’t very overpowering.
Now I’m a Cali kid and all but it looks like it’s pouring pretty good. Why do they insist on playing? Not supposed to stop anytime soon?
I HATE free passes…especially when we are up by a run.
Please get this GB Bell…please.
#56@Coronado Mike: Nope. Gameday has him 92-94, so about normal, maybe down a little because of the rain.
I will take the K…
Way to throw the “Laser Beam” fastball…
#60@Ben B.: Thanks. That makes me feel better.
And way to close out the 8th Heath.
I am going to say it…
BONG…BONG…BONG…
Hoping for some good Karma here.
Outside of Dempster and Zambrano, do the Cubs have all that impressive of a starting rotation ?
#54@JP: Yes, as I said I’m not opposed to picking up pitchers to one year deals and then hoping they do well so that you could either trade him or let him walk and get a draft pick (although that’s a lot harder now with the new rules). The question is why Shawn Estes? At least two years ago he was only 33, now he’s 35 and hasn’t been good for 7 years. That’s why I was in favor of signing Kyle Lohse — he’s 29 and a flyball pitcher so his chances of being good this season in Petco Park are high.
Signing Estes (and pitching him) certainly is the dumbest thing ever — I think trading for Adam Eaton and giving up a better, younger and cheaper pitcher is certainly worse — but it’s not exactly the smartest move in the world.
#62@Coronado Mike: Trevor warming up right now.
The Pads need to move Tony Clark for a marginal prospect and bring up Myrow for the same role.
I’m still getting nervous when Trevor comes in. Can’t help it.
#67@Turbine Dude: At this point, I don’t think I’ll ever not get nervous when he comes in again.
#67@Turbine Dude: Me too, but I am trying to be better about it.
Also, I will smile when the Cubs announcers say that Trevor is “quite possibly the best conditioned athlete in all of professional sports.”
Wow…that is quite a compliment…not sure I agree, but I will take it!
#69@Coronado Mike: Trevor’s stuff looks good tonight!
WGN had that strike 3 pitch at 86…nice.
BONG….BONG…BONG…
c’mon Hoffy, get it done
YEAH BABY!!!!!!!!!!! Nice.
3 wins in the last 4 games!!
Big win ! New guys are contributing !
WE WIN!!!
Estes picks up the W….
Trevor with the Save….
All is right with the world now…
I can enjoy my pre-birthday cigar with a smile on my face tonight.
THAT’S WHAT I’M TALKIN’ ‘BOUT. That’s a good win right there. Peavy tomorrow, right?
Love shutting down that ravenous crowd thus preventing them from singing that stupid “Cubs win” tonight.
#76@Coronado Mike: Regardless of a few failings of Edgar Gonzales tonight, I’m glad to see him on this team.
That looked more like the last few years. Acceptable starting pitching, a 3 run bomb, and a really impressive bullpen. All three relievers looked great, especially Trevor there in the 9th. Got ahead of the hitters and only left one pitch up which was off-speed enough to fool Ward so he couldn’t get good wood on it.
#64@Schlom: You keep asking a simple question (Why Estes?) … and I think I’ve answered it before … I’ll try again … my guess is that the Padres are giving Estes a chance more based on observing him pitch in practice and in spring training and for AAA Portland than based upon his recent performace/statistics. Those stats are not going to change, so neither is your argument that he has not been a good pitcher for many years. I think we all know that and concede that part of the argument. What I don’t concede is that the Padres may have based their decision to sign him and their decision to give him a start upon their “scouting reports”.
Is that an acceptable answer to your question?
Trevor is toast, move him out of the closer role!
Oh, wait, nevermind.
Great win tonight, seems like one they should have given away somehow.
#66@JP: I agree 100%. I’d be content with moving Clark for nothing.
#81@LynchMob: Some people just get off on flogging dead horses.
#13@Pat: I plan on showing Estes the toast so as to further motivate him.
#82@Flash: I’m probably a spokesman for the “Trevor is Toast” club … but, to be clear, I’ve never advocated “move him out of the closer role” … as it’s clear to me that the Padres do not have a pitcher currently obviously capable of doing better in the closer role (though it’s sounding like Heath Bell is getting his velocity back up to 94+?) … and so my definition of “Trevor is Toast” is that he would be successful in less than 80% of his outings rather than his traditional greater than 80% of his outings.
So far in May, he’s 2-for-2 … 100% … and the cynic in my observes the following …
– his first save in May came on 11 days rest
– his second save in May came facing the 7/8/9 hitters in a wet lineup
The uber-silly cynic in me wonders if the Padres are keeping their team talent down so they will have fewer save situations so that Trevor gets more rest between outings … think about, if the team sucks, the “Trevor Problem” goes away
#82@Flash: I am telling you Hoffy could be an effective reliever in the big leagues for another 3 years. Would he -ever- accept more of a bullpen by committee role ?
NO WAY is Trevor toast !! Let’s have a real debate on whether he is toast in the Fall of 2010.
#81@LynchMob: If you (and the Padres FO) think that 10 horrible innings in spring training and 35 average innings in the minors is more indicative then the past five years then I don’t know what to say.
Does that mean you think that Ryan Ludwick is going to be an All-Star and possible MVP? And that Cliff Lee is going to have the greatest pitching season ever?
Using that reason the Padres might as well trade Greene and Bard right now as well as maybe Chris Young. Who cares about their past history since they’ve sucked this year?
Was anyone watching the postgame show? Scan answered my question and mentioned the DS blog. Very cool.
#88@Schlom: You really seem to be missing my point … I totally agree and understand that his performance / stats have been *BAD* *BAD* *BAD* … I actually totally agree that he sucks … but I’m trying to answer your question (Why have the Padres given Estes a chance, a start?) … and it sure seems to me to be because of what they *SEE*. And you know what? I’ve seen him pitch 2 times in 2008 (once @ Peoria and once @ Portland) … and he has looked OK … thru 5 innings. Now I’m *not* a scout … and 2 outings is almost the ultimate in “small sample size” … but I’m guessing that the Padres have had professional talent evaluators watching him pitch in practice, in spring training, and in AAA games … and I’m guess they’ve liked something they have *SEEN*. That’s all I’m trying to say …
I’m with you … I think they are wrong … but what they are doing seems reasonable and based on more information than I have at my disposal …
#89@Turbine Dude: What question? And what was his answer? (ie. I was not watching the postgame show)
The great savior Kyle Lohse has been getting hammered as of late. His ERA is now hovering around 5.
#85@LynchMob: In related news, Mariano Rivera got ding’d trying to pitch a 2nd inning tonight … http://tinyurl.com/6n22gn
Farm Report Preview … HR’s tonight from Blanks (#3 @ AA) and Headley (#4 @ AAA)
#94@LynchMob: And Latos with a good (albeit short) outing at Ft Wayne (4 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 3 K)
#90@LynchMob: Here’s the thing, doesn’t it scare you that the Padres are picking up one of, if not the worst, pitchers in baseball hoping on the slim to none chance that he does well enough that they can trade him for a low level prospect? That just described the Pittsburgh Pirate team building philosophy.
Pitching Estes means they aren’t trying to win. His only “strength” is that he’s fairly cheap. I can understand trying to get something out of Germano — he’s young enough that he actually has some potential and trade value. Estes has neither.
#91@LynchMob: LM, Bob and I have been e-mailing back and forth for a couple of weeks now. Most of which is beyond a 60 second answer. So, tonight I sent him a question we all know the answer to. ” Bob, just curious. How much does the FO weigh into factor a crowd favorite player vs. trading them or extending a contract? ie. If Greene (a big crowd favorite) was put on the block, what impact does that affect a teams decision?”
He spent about a minute on this and gave my name and the noted the DS blog. Very cool.
* The price for McLouth, Nady, and Bay has gone up quite a bit from March. The price for Crisp has also risen. I would have traded LeBlanc & Headley in March for Crisp -which I know is a divergent and unpopular opinion. Now I am not sure the Bosox would do this trade.
* Rangers gave up Edinson Volquez to get Josh Hamilton. I wonder if Padres management could have landed Hamilton for less than what the pitching starved Rangers sacrificed ?
* Former Padre Ramon Vasquez is on fire ! Small sample but he is sporting a .940 OPS in 70 PA’s.
Another thing, they gave up on Jim Edmonds after 103 plate appearances. And his overall and recent track record is way better then Shawn Estes’. So how many innings are they going to give Estes? Does he get one bad start and he’s gone? Or are they going to give him multiple opportunities?
#99@Schlom: I do not think he gets multiple opportunities if he fails. Why would he be any different than any other pitcher on the fringe ?
Geoff,
Great breakdown from this morning. As you can tell I’m a little behind here. =) Anyway, good discussion and as always thru the totality of posts we obtain a good picture of our current state.
Go Pads.
Some very good/fun pics of Luke Carlin from Sunday’s game …
http://www.flickr.com/photos/dirkhansen/sets/72157605044485750/with/2491408864/
… they are taken by a MadFriar’s subscriber.
#99@Schlom: Edmonds looked hopelessly lost at the plate. #96@Schlom: No one is on a shorter leash than Estes, I’ll grant you that. Lets put this one to bed. Check back with me after his next start. Scoreboard tonight 5/13/08- in the pouring rain and the wind blowing out, Cubbies red hot. Estes W
#96@Schlom: It sure seems like we differ in our approach … it seems like you think you know more than the Padres FO … whereas I’m trying to figure out what it is that they know that I don’t. They’ve seen Estes pitch … I’m guessing they like something they see. Also, it’s not like they made the decision to “pick him up” yesterday … they made that decision a couple of *years* ago! The decision they have made recently is to give him a start … and they didn’t make that decision until they had seen him pitch in practice, and in spring games, and at AAA (have I said that before?). And what did they decide? I don’t think they decided to showcase him so “that they can trade him for a low level prospect” (why do you think that?) … rather I think they decided that of all the pitchers available to theim in their org at this moment, Estes gave them the best opportunity for a Win in today’s game. Who did you want to start today’s game? And what was that based upon?
#96@Schlom: How can you compare what the current FO does to what the Pirates do? It may appear similar to you, but simply looking at the results of the FO’s decisions should prove to you that you’re off base.
#99@Schlom: Those are good questions … here’s what I’d like to know from you … what do you think the Padres will do? Then, how does that contrast with what you think the Padres should do? I think we’re agree’d that they will face this issue … ie. Estes will not continue to get the results he got tonight in very many starts. I will say this … I think their chances of getting good outings from Estes go up the less they have him pitch … ie. if/when he pitches past the 5th inning, watch out! (which reminds me, putting “Letting Estes hit for himself in the Top of the 6th” down on BB’s “mistake” list … that seems needlessly risky)
#104@LynchMob: Given their track record, I have a lot of faith in Sandy and Kevin’s decisions. This is a chess game, and I think they play it well given what they have. I’d challenge anyone else to do the job as well.
Think our attendance sucks and that we have community relation problems. Tampa Bay, competitive really for the first time, drew 16,600 tonight against the the World Champion Bosox. Kind of like the Pads drawing 9,275 in 1984 in June.
OT … the guys at uniwatch.com got a kick out of this …
http://www.flickr.com/photos/26525633@N02/2488004737/
#21@Schlom: Estes would not crack the Buc’s rotation. The Buc’s are my sleeper team. I said in late March on this blog that the Buc’s were one reliever I away from winning 84 games and I stand by that. They are actually pretty loaded.
#99@Schlom:
A little off base to even compare a starting Center Fielder and a “potential” 5th starter don’t you think? One plays the field and get 5 at bats a night while the other is the latest of a handful of potential candidates to become the guy who may or may not pitch every 5 or 6 days.
See the difference in impact there?
On a sad note… I do think that Estes’s performance tonight probably bought him and extra bad start or two worth of leniency. I see him having to string together 2 or 3 laughers now before KT and Bud pull the plug on the experiment. I think the scouting report against him is probably a little light at the moment seeing as how he hasn’t pitched in a few seasons but once he gets another couple of starts under his belt the hitters will most likely adjust. Just ask Justin Germano about that. Big league hitters are funny that way.
Why do you guys even respond to Scholm. He has made the same argument for MONTHS now. Its been a while since I have seen someone kick a dead horse like this, before this he kicked the Moores is a crook dead horse.
#112@SDSUBaseball: I tend to forget who wrote which comment from day-to-day. That’s part of it.
#112@SDSUBaseball: Because when he’s not kicking dead horses, a lot of what he says makes sense to me, gives me insights, and gives me ways to say things that I’m thinking … so it’s worth it to me to try to encourage more of the good stuff … sorry if it’s noisy to you …
#114@LynchMob: I understand that, but people tend to respond when he is kicking dead horses and everyone seems fall into his trap and do exactly what he wants. He enjoys taking over the thread each day with the same topic he took over the thread with the day before.