Comments on: IGD: Padres vs Diamondbacks (26 Apr 08) http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2008/04/igd-padres-vs-diamondbacks-26-apr-08-2.html Fri, 19 Mar 2010 15:39:32 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9 hourly 1 By: Tom Waits http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2008/04/igd-padres-vs-diamondbacks-26-apr-08-2.html/comment-page-2#comment-178075 Tom Waits Mon, 28 Apr 2008 19:49:59 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/?p=2472#comment-178075 #67@<a href="#comment-178065" rel="nofollow">parlo</a>: Oh, Greene is definitely the most volatile Padre hitter. With his peripherals he could stink all year and give most Padre fans (with a few notable exceptions, Phantom!) cause to lament that he wasn't moved over the winter. But it's much less likely that Greene will stink AND the other Padre underperformers will also stink. The offense will improve....but the pitching could step back, and we could be so buried by the end of May it won't make a diference. #67@parlo: Oh, Greene is definitely the most volatile Padre hitter. With his peripherals he could stink all year and give most Padre fans (with a few notable exceptions, Phantom!) cause to lament that he wasn’t moved over the winter. But it’s much less likely that Greene will stink AND the other Padre underperformers will also stink. The offense will improve….but the pitching could step back, and we could be so buried by the end of May it won’t make a diference.

]]> By: parlo http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2008/04/igd-padres-vs-diamondbacks-26-apr-08-2.html/comment-page-2#comment-178065 parlo Mon, 28 Apr 2008 19:30:31 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/?p=2472#comment-178065 Greenes strikeout/walk ratio bothers me so much that I have a hard time seeing his upside. I am sure he will get his big hits. He will beat up on some bad pitching in Milwaukee or Pittsburgh that will eventually give him better numbers. But his lack of plate discipline only seems to be getting worse. I can see him getting in a slump that eventually turns into a bad year. Then again, he has walked three times in the past four games. Maybe he is coming around. Greenes strikeout/walk ratio bothers me so much that I have a hard time seeing his upside. I am sure he will get his big hits. He will beat up on some bad pitching in Milwaukee or Pittsburgh that will eventually give him better numbers. But his lack of plate discipline only seems to be getting worse. I can see him getting in a slump that eventually turns into a bad year.
Then again, he has walked three times in the past four games. Maybe he is coming around.

]]> By: Tom Waits http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2008/04/igd-padres-vs-diamondbacks-26-apr-08-2.html/comment-page-2#comment-178050 Tom Waits Mon, 28 Apr 2008 17:10:54 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/?p=2472#comment-178050 #65@<a href="#comment-178047" rel="nofollow">parlo</a>: I'm not discounting Iguchi's struggles in 2007, but once he was healthy (as a Philly), that OPS+ was 103. And even if he was on a fairly linear downward path, getting to a 90 OPS+ from his current level would still be substantial improvement. It's a 20 point jump. That's basically the difference between Agon and PMac. Would anyone argue there's no a significant gap between those two? Sledge had 107 major league at-bats in 05 and 06. There's no trend there. Yes, some players fall off a cliff and never regress to the mean. By far the majority of players don't, barring injury. We have 4 players who are currently 20-40 points below their normal OPS+ range. It's highly unlikely they're all going to stay there. That doesn't count Edmonds, it's Bard, Kouz, Greene, and Iguchi, all young enough that age doesn't trump regression. Half the lineup is due for significant improvement. The question is, will it happen soon enough to matter with the way Arizona is built? #65@parlo: I’m not discounting Iguchi’s struggles in 2007, but once he was healthy (as a Philly), that OPS+ was 103. And even if he was on a fairly linear downward path, getting to a 90 OPS+ from his current level would still be substantial improvement. It’s a 20 point jump. That’s basically the difference between Agon and PMac. Would anyone argue there’s no a significant gap between those two?

Sledge had 107 major league at-bats in 05 and 06. There’s no trend there.

Yes, some players fall off a cliff and never regress to the mean. By far the majority of players don’t, barring injury. We have 4 players who are currently 20-40 points below their normal OPS+ range. It’s highly unlikely they’re all going to stay there. That doesn’t count Edmonds, it’s Bard, Kouz, Greene, and Iguchi, all young enough that age doesn’t trump regression. Half the lineup is due for significant improvement. The question is, will it happen soon enough to matter with the way Arizona is built?

]]> By: parlo http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2008/04/igd-padres-vs-diamondbacks-26-apr-08-2.html/comment-page-2#comment-178047 parlo Mon, 28 Apr 2008 16:58:12 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/?p=2472#comment-178047 Marcus Giles 2004: 111 OPS+ 2005: 114 2006: 87 2007: 68 Jose Cruz 2004: 101 OPS+ 2005: 117 2006: 88 2007: 86 Terrmel Sledge 2004-2006: 97 OPS+ 2007: 80 Iguchi 2005: 104 OPS+ 2006: 97 2007: 92 2008: ? Marcus Giles
2004: 111 OPS+
2005: 114
2006: 87
2007: 68

Jose Cruz
2004: 101 OPS+
2005: 117
2006: 88
2007: 86

Terrmel Sledge
2004-2006: 97 OPS+
2007: 80

Iguchi
2005: 104 OPS+
2006: 97
2007: 92
2008: ?

]]> By: Tom Waits http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2008/04/igd-padres-vs-diamondbacks-26-apr-08-2.html/comment-page-2#comment-178031 Tom Waits Mon, 28 Apr 2008 15:19:12 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/?p=2472#comment-178031 #61@<a href="#comment-178017" rel="nofollow">parlo</a>: Iguchi's only been a major leaguer for 3+ years. His career line, except for when he was hurt last year, was right around 100 OPS+. A jump from 71 to 95-100 is more than "significant." Same thing with Greene. He does it ugly, but he's a career 100 OPS+ bat. Of course this could be his worst year ever, but it's more likely that he'll boost that 58 to ~100 by season's end. #62@<a href="#comment-178022" rel="nofollow">Brett</a>: Yes, Huffman is a LF. I'm surprised he's not athletic enough, with a good enough arm, to play RF. You'd expect a college QB to have enough arm strength and/or accuracy to get the job done there. But he's no CF. He's one of the biggest reasons I was surprised to see them put Headley in LF in Portland. Not only did it drain Headley of some trade value and put him at some risk, it was a very short-term solution. It wouldn't surprise me if they give Kouzmanoff until July to start hitting, but if he doesn't, they move Headley back to 3b and promote him. #61@parlo: Iguchi’s only been a major leaguer for 3+ years. His career line, except for when he was hurt last year, was right around 100 OPS+. A jump from 71 to 95-100 is more than “significant.” Same thing with Greene. He does it ugly, but he’s a career 100 OPS+ bat. Of course this could be his worst year ever, but it’s more likely that he’ll boost that 58 to ~100 by season’s end.

#62@Brett: Yes, Huffman is a LF. I’m surprised he’s not athletic enough, with a good enough arm, to play RF. You’d expect a college QB to have enough arm strength and/or accuracy to get the job done there. But he’s no CF. He’s one of the biggest reasons I was surprised to see them put Headley in LF in Portland. Not only did it drain Headley of some trade value and put him at some risk, it was a very short-term solution. It wouldn’t surprise me if they give Kouzmanoff until July to start hitting, but if he doesn’t, they move Headley back to 3b and promote him.

]]> By: Brett http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2008/04/igd-padres-vs-diamondbacks-26-apr-08-2.html/comment-page-2#comment-178023 Brett Mon, 28 Apr 2008 13:31:06 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/?p=2472#comment-178023 sorry, that was in response to #59, JP sorry, that was in response to #59, JP

]]> By: Brett http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2008/04/igd-padres-vs-diamondbacks-26-apr-08-2.html/comment-page-2#comment-178022 Brett Mon, 28 Apr 2008 13:30:24 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/?p=2472#comment-178022 #58@<a href="#comment-177979" rel="nofollow">Trav</a>: I think from what I remember though is Huffman's defense is not very good, he's limited to LF, and his bat will have to carry him. I think he played infield in college too. On the positive side, maybe we could confuse other teams by putting Huffman at the plate and putting Hell's Bells as his at-bat song. #58@Trav: I think from what I remember though is Huffman’s defense is not very good, he’s limited to LF, and his bat will have to carry him. I think he played infield in college too. On the positive side, maybe we could confuse other teams by putting Huffman at the plate and putting Hell’s Bells as his at-bat song.

]]> By: parlo http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2008/04/igd-padres-vs-diamondbacks-26-apr-08-2.html/comment-page-2#comment-178017 parlo Mon, 28 Apr 2008 12:41:05 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/?p=2472#comment-178017 #60@Ben B.: I can understand what #58Trav is saying. He said "significant positive strides". Edmonds and Iguchi have had declining numbers for several years. What they did in 2005 isnt really an indication of the players they are today. Bard and Hairston havent had significant everyday playing time to say that they are "near locks to improve a ton". As for Greene, last year may have been the best season he is going to have. If he batted 230 with 14 HRs and 150Ks this year, I wouldnt be surprised. The hitting will improve, but I dont think it will "improve a ton". #60@Ben B.: I can understand what #58Trav is saying. He said “significant positive strides”. Edmonds and Iguchi have had declining numbers for several years. What they did in 2005 isnt really an indication of the players they are today. Bard and Hairston havent had significant everyday playing time to say that they are “near locks to improve a ton”. As for Greene, last year may have been the best season he is going to have. If he batted 230 with 14 HRs and 150Ks this year, I wouldnt be surprised.
The hitting will improve, but I dont think it will “improve a ton”.

]]> By: Ben B. http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2008/04/igd-padres-vs-diamondbacks-26-apr-08-2.html/comment-page-2#comment-177998 Ben B. Mon, 28 Apr 2008 08:42:26 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/?p=2472#comment-177998 #58@<a href="#comment-177979" rel="nofollow">Trav</a>: Wait, are you serious? You think Greene's going to have a 49 OPS+, Iguchi a 71, Bard a 64, Edmonds a 43, Hairston a 58? Not to mention almost everyone on the bench being terrible beyond all reason as well. Based on these guys' track records, all of them are near locks to improve a ton. #58@Trav: Wait, are you serious? You think Greene’s going to have a 49 OPS+, Iguchi a 71, Bard a 64, Edmonds a 43, Hairston a 58? Not to mention almost everyone on the bench being terrible beyond all reason as well. Based on these guys’ track records, all of them are near locks to improve a ton.

]]> By: JP http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2008/04/igd-padres-vs-diamondbacks-26-apr-08-2.html/comment-page-2#comment-177985 JP Mon, 28 Apr 2008 05:23:55 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/?p=2472#comment-177985 22 year old CF Chad Huffman is red hot down at AA San Antonio. Wonder if he gets a look at this level (mlb) in September or earlier ? 22 year old CF Chad Huffman is red hot down at AA San Antonio. Wonder if he gets a look at this level (mlb) in September or earlier ?

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